All work is probabilistic. Complex programs are always dynamic. Emerging plans can be defined in the Performance Measurement Baseline

1. PS-16
Dynamic Schedule Management
Glen B. Alleman
PrimePM
glen.alleman@niwotridge.com
+1 303 241 9633
EVM World 2017
Rick Price
ClearPlan / Waypoint Consulting
Rick.A.Price2016@gmail.com
+1 303 667 3379

2. 2
Structure of Workshop
 This workshop amplifies the concepts presented in the practice symposium
titled “Critical Thinking on Critical Path Analysis”
 Core principles
– All work is probabilistic
– Complex programs are always dynamic
– Plan B and Plan C can be defined in the PMB as alternatives
– Emerging plans must be dealt with as well
 Notional example
– A notional spacecraft mission
 Hands on identification of alternative points of integration (API)
– Have students identify New API
– Have students discuss and present their own issues with API on their
own projects

3. All Successful Projects Require Credible
Answers To These 5 Questions …
3 Performance–Based Project Management®, Copyright © Glen B. Alleman, 2012 - 2017
1. What Does DONE Look
Like?
2. How Do We Get to DONE?
3. Is There Enough Time,
Money, and Resources, To
Get to DONE?
4. What Impediments Will Be
Encountered Along The
Way to DONE?
5. What Are The Units Of
Measures For Progress To
Plan for each Deliverable?

4. 4
Framing Assumptions for Managing in the
Presence of Uncertainty
 Uncertainty creates risk
in two forms
– Probabilistic (Event
Based) uncertainty
• Reducible
– Statistical (Naturally
occurring) uncertainty
• Irreducible
 The schedule for work in
presence of uncertainty is
always probabilistic

5. 5
Elements of Dynamic Schedule Management
 Alternate Points of Integration (APIs) and their effect on critical
path analysis and SRAs
 Identification of probabilistic critical paths using SRAs
Critical path analyses and SRAs are generated
Using static data.

6. 6
The “End Item”

7. 7
Spacecraft Mission
 Spacecraft development program with the following subsystems
defined to produce the mission
– Structure (“the box”)
– Propulsion system (engines, tanks, fuel lines, etc.)
– Avionics (guidance and communications elements)
– Electrical power systems
– Primary payload (telescope)
– Secondary payload (radiation experiment)
– Flight software
 All the above has to be assembled and tested to meet mission
objectives

8. 8
Exercise
 Ask questions to determine sequencing options for integrating
subsystems, schedule risk associated with developing each
subsystem, and criticality of each element
 Assess effects (positive or negative) of employing alternate
points of integration
 Determine how to handle remaining residual or undefined
schedule risk

9. 9
Spacecraft Subsystem(s)
Subsystems Description
Structure (“the box”)
Framework for hanging all the components of
the spacecraft
Propulsion system
Engines, tanks, fuel lines, to make the
spacecraft fly.
Avionics
Hardware for guidance, communications,
control, navigation, and data handling.
Electrical power systems
Batteries, solar panels, electrical distribution
systems for all computers and sensors
Primary payload The reason for this spacecraft telescope
Secondary payload Radiation experiment
Flight software
Software to position the spacecraft to perform
the mission, once it’s on its way to Mars

10. 10
Initial IMS
 Critical path driven by flight avionics
 Deterministic critical path
 Probabilistic critical path needed for credible IMS
(6/10/18)

11. 11
Confidence in Completing On-Time
Cost, Schedule, Technical Model†
WBS
Task 100
Task 101
Task 102
Task 103
Task 104
Task 105
Task 106
Probability
Density
Function
 Research the Project
 Find Analogies
 Ask Endless Questions
 Analyze the Results
 What can go wrong?
 How likely is it to go wrong?
 What is the cause?
 What is the consequence?
Monte Carlo Simulation
Tool is Mandatory
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
0
Days, Facilities, Parts, People
Cumulative Distribution Function

12. 50% confidence On or Before 6/10/18

13. 13
What’s driving this probabilistically?

14. 50% confidence Not Good Enough

15. 15
Spacecraft Subsystem(s) ‒ School Solution
Subsystems Latest Alternate Points of
Integration
Negative Effects of API
Structure (“the
box”)
None None
Propulsion
system
Addition after structure assembled
Assembly inefficiencies – take
spacecraft apart and put it back
together.
Duplicate work.
Avionics
Prior to Spacecraft mass properties
(weighing Spacecraft)
Electrical power
systems
Prior to start of system level testing
Primary payload None Must be installed as planned
Secondary
payload
Option to drop secondary payload
Loss of secondary science
objective
Flight software Uploaded on orbit
Little opportunity to make
corrections

16. 94% confidence On or Before 6/10/18

17. 17
Recognition and Management of
Probabilistic Paths
 Probabilistic critical paths may have greater total float than the
deterministic path but have higher schedule risk (consequence
and probability) and need to be managed
 Strategically placed schedule margin is a proven effective tool
for managing unmitigated schedule risks
Define & manage paths most likely to drive delivery.

18. 18
Structures are the Probabilistic Critical Path

19. 19
Alternate Points of Incorporation
• Some components have no alternate POIs
• The current deterministic critical path has the most options for later installation
• Some paths have higher development risks
• Some paths have higher development risks and no alternate POIs
• If critical path was not defined as “longest current calculated path” what components
would you consider “critical”?
Acceptable alternate logic defined.

20. 20
Things To Remember
 All critical path analyses are entirely dependent upon well
defined, structured, and managed schedule data
 CP analysis is based off a single set of data (including logic);
you may have viable options (alternate POIs)
 The real value of critical path analysis is the analysis.
 Dynamic schedule management-Identifying and managing
probabilistic critical paths, by considering risk and viable
alternate logic, enables superior programmatic decisions.
Planning is a verb!