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Using Design for Six Sigma to achieve  Lean Software Development at  Raytheon Missile Systems Tony Strickland  Certified Raytheon Six Sigma Expert (520) 794-7855 [email_address] ®
Raytheon Six Sigma? Why not DMAIC? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],®
Six Sigma Process ,[object Object]
Process Integration IPDS provides an integrated set of best practices for the entire product development life cycle using a just-in-time tailoring process. R6s is a business strategy for process improvement.  CMMI provides guidance for creating, measuring,managing, and improving specific processes. Each plays an integral role in the success of programs, projects and organizations
DFSS Design for Six Sigma  is a methodology used to predict, manage and improve  Producibility, Affordability , and  Robust Performance  for the benefit of the customers. DESIGNS THAT CONSISTENTLY ENSURE MISSION SUCCESS, MEET COST & SCHEDULE, AND CAN BE READILY PRODUCED IN THE FACTORY Design for Six Sigma Definition Affordability Producibility Robust Performance
Technical Components of DFSS  with Enablers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Affordability Affordability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Design For Performance Robust Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Design For Producibility Producibility
Traditional DFSS Investment: Non-Recurring Costs Engineering Hours 0 Months Desired Typical Development I&T Production WHY USE DFSS? Reactive   Proactive   Challenge DFSS Challenge: Non-Recurring Costs Potential Revenue Generation:  Recurring Costs
What does DFSS mean for Software? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],vs
Effectively Applying DFSS in  Software Intensive Systems Program Execution Gates 5-11 Business Decision Gates 1-4 5 - System Integration, Verification and Validation 4 - Product Design and Development 1 - Capture/Proposal Development 7 8 10 9 = GATE Internal Preliminary Design Review Start-Up Review Internal System Functional Review Internal Critical Design Review Internal Test/Ship Readiness Review Internal Production Readiness Review Key Characteristics Management Cost Management 2 - Project Planning, Management and Control 1 2 3 4 Bid / Proposal Review 11 Test Optimization Architecture Evaluation QFD Visual Requirements Critical Chain Defect Prediction & Prevention Performance Modeling    Planning 6 - Production and Deployment Planning 7 - Operations and Support 3 - Requirements and Architecture Development 5 6
Implementation Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Knowing the Customer’s Needs
Quality Function Deployment: Capturing the Voice of the Customer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],VOICE OF THE CUSTOMER PRIORITIES COMPETITIVE EVALUATION HOWs DIRECTION OF IMPROVEMENT RELATIONSHIP MATRIX CORRELATION MATRIX HOW MUCHes RANKINGS / PRIORITIES REQUIREMENTS INTERACTION MATRIX
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Executing the Value Stream
DFSS for Software:  Affordability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Critical Chain Project Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Multi-Tasking is an Insidious Generator of  When (if) we look at “Resource Allocation”  we typically discover high degrees of multi-tasking  … waste Why software teams struggle to meet their schedule commitments Resource 1 Resource 3 Time Resource 2
[object Object],Effects of Multi-Tasking Expectations : Task A Task B Task C What happens: A B C A B C Lost Productivity due to context switching Should happen: Task A Task B Task C Priorities are established and followed
CCPM Typical Results- Notional  A B C A B C No Multi-Tasking   Multi-tasking  t = 0 Projects start later but  finish sooner t = n
CCPM Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],95% Task Buffer 50%
Protecting Customers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 2 4 3 5 6 7 8 9 Buffer 95% 50% Agreed Upon Delivery Date
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Creating and Analyzing the System
It all starts with your model... ,[object Object],Input Output y = f(x) Spreadsheets Need to transform this deterministic approach  into a probabilistic approach.
A B C D E Y Y =  f  (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 180 187 194 201 208 215 222 229 236 243 250 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 17 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Response F G H I J K L M Simulation or Multi-Variate Transfer Function Design Variables Input Variation Contributes To  Response Variation 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30
A B C D E Y Y =  f  (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 180 187 194 201 208 215 222 229 236 243 250 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 17 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Response F G H I J K L M Design Variables System/Sub-System Model f  (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) A Visual Representation of DFSS Statistical Requirements Analysis 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Flow Down/Allocation Based on Output Variability
DFSS Performance Analysis results in... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Results from Crystal Ball   Monte Carlo SW A B C D E Y f  (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) Parameters Response F G H I J K L M Function G-Sys. Losses -.45 A-Pavg .35 D-Ant. Eff, .35 F-Integ. Eff. .34 J-Rec. BW -.34 B-Ant. Gain .29 H-Tgt RCS .23 C-Ant. Aperture .21 K-Pulse Width -.19 M-Rec. Out SNR -.15 I-Noise Figure -.12 L-Rep. Freq. -.03 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 Measured by Rank Correlation Prob(LL<Y<UL)  y ,   y ,   1y ,   2y PDF(Y)
[object Object],[object Object],LCAC Example:  Requirements Analysis Actual Behavior Factor Worst-Case Assumptions Wave Height (ft): Wave Period (s): Power (hp): 40  LSL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 1.6 3 15000 40 LSL WORST-CASE ANALYSIS 35 Speed Speed 0.3 1.6 3 15 7 15000 16000
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
Using FMEA to Evaluate an Architecture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Communicating the Key Characteristics
KPC – Key Product Characteristic ,[object Object],LSL USL USL LSL Loss  Standard KPC Taguchi Loss Function
Key Product Characteristics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Product Characteristic Tree Simple Example of a KCC Affecting Several KPCs Top-level KPCs 2nd level KPCs KCCs VOC
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Predicting and Preventing Defects
Defect Containment Chart
Defect Density Predictive Model Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Defect Model Previous Program/Release Standard Defect Containment Chart Model Raw Defect Counts  Prorate the raw defect counts for the new program based upon SLOC counts Projected Raw Defect Counts For New Program New Program Defect Containment Current Raw Defect Counts New Program - Projected Defect Containment Sum of Current Raw Defect Counts Plus Raw Defects Not Yet Detected Defect Density Predictive Model Approach
Defect Density Stage Detected and Originated ,[object Object]
Defect Density Code Inspection Analysis When number of defects is between the control limits, fix findings and pass to next stage . When number of defects is below the lower limit, unit(s) may need more inspection. When number of defects is above the upper limit, unit(s) may need rework and a repeated inspection.
DFSS in the  Software Engineering Center ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Optimizing Product Performance
Testing - An Opportunity for Leverage ,[object Object],[object Object]
Combinatorial Design Method ,[object Object],[object Object]
CDM Advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ground Satellite System Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Satellite Ground Systems Applied Case
Usage Based Testing  Using Markov Chains ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Y (0.5) X (0.5) Z (0.2) W (0.5) X (1) Y (0.3) Y (0.8) Y (0.3) X (0.7) Z (0.2) X (1) Y (0.75) Y (0.1) X (0.9) Z (0.3) Y (0.2) X (0.5) Visual Requirements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],X (0.25) Z (1) S E
Raytheon Case Study Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions?

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QM-007-Design for 6 sigma

  • 1. Using Design for Six Sigma to achieve Lean Software Development at Raytheon Missile Systems Tony Strickland Certified Raytheon Six Sigma Expert (520) 794-7855 [email_address] ®
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Process Integration IPDS provides an integrated set of best practices for the entire product development life cycle using a just-in-time tailoring process. R6s is a business strategy for process improvement. CMMI provides guidance for creating, measuring,managing, and improving specific processes. Each plays an integral role in the success of programs, projects and organizations
  • 5. DFSS Design for Six Sigma is a methodology used to predict, manage and improve Producibility, Affordability , and Robust Performance for the benefit of the customers. DESIGNS THAT CONSISTENTLY ENSURE MISSION SUCCESS, MEET COST & SCHEDULE, AND CAN BE READILY PRODUCED IN THE FACTORY Design for Six Sigma Definition Affordability Producibility Robust Performance
  • 6.
  • 7. Traditional DFSS Investment: Non-Recurring Costs Engineering Hours 0 Months Desired Typical Development I&T Production WHY USE DFSS? Reactive Proactive Challenge DFSS Challenge: Non-Recurring Costs Potential Revenue Generation: Recurring Costs
  • 8.
  • 9. Effectively Applying DFSS in Software Intensive Systems Program Execution Gates 5-11 Business Decision Gates 1-4 5 - System Integration, Verification and Validation 4 - Product Design and Development 1 - Capture/Proposal Development 7 8 10 9 = GATE Internal Preliminary Design Review Start-Up Review Internal System Functional Review Internal Critical Design Review Internal Test/Ship Readiness Review Internal Production Readiness Review Key Characteristics Management Cost Management 2 - Project Planning, Management and Control 1 2 3 4 Bid / Proposal Review 11 Test Optimization Architecture Evaluation QFD Visual Requirements Critical Chain Defect Prediction & Prevention Performance Modeling Planning 6 - Production and Deployment Planning 7 - Operations and Support 3 - Requirements and Architecture Development 5 6
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. Multi-Tasking is an Insidious Generator of When (if) we look at “Resource Allocation” we typically discover high degrees of multi-tasking … waste Why software teams struggle to meet their schedule commitments Resource 1 Resource 3 Time Resource 2
  • 17.
  • 18. CCPM Typical Results- Notional A B C A B C No Multi-Tasking Multi-tasking t = 0 Projects start later but finish sooner t = n
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. A B C D E Y Y = f (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 180 187 194 201 208 215 222 229 236 243 250 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 17 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Response F G H I J K L M Simulation or Multi-Variate Transfer Function Design Variables Input Variation Contributes To Response Variation 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30
  • 24. A B C D E Y Y = f (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 180 187 194 201 208 215 222 229 236 243 250 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 17 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.2 23 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Response F G H I J K L M Design Variables System/Sub-System Model f (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M) A Visual Representation of DFSS Statistical Requirements Analysis 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 15 16.5 18 19.5 21 22.5 24 25.5 27 28.5 30 Flow Down/Allocation Based on Output Variability
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.  
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Key Product Characteristic Tree Simple Example of a KCC Affecting Several KPCs Top-level KPCs 2nd level KPCs KCCs VOC
  • 34.
  • 36.
  • 37. Defect Model Previous Program/Release Standard Defect Containment Chart Model Raw Defect Counts Prorate the raw defect counts for the new program based upon SLOC counts Projected Raw Defect Counts For New Program New Program Defect Containment Current Raw Defect Counts New Program - Projected Defect Containment Sum of Current Raw Defect Counts Plus Raw Defects Not Yet Detected Defect Density Predictive Model Approach
  • 38.
  • 39. Defect Density Code Inspection Analysis When number of defects is between the control limits, fix findings and pass to next stage . When number of defects is below the lower limit, unit(s) may need more inspection. When number of defects is above the upper limit, unit(s) may need rework and a repeated inspection.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Satellite Ground Systems Applied Case
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.

Editor's Notes

  1. Historically, six sigma has been tied to applying statistics to the way that we view and analyze processes for producing a product. This thought process has also been tied to the way that we design a product. A point to consider, is whether six sigma should be tied to the process for designing a product, or to the analysis of the performance of the product. A common theme we see in development program post-mortems is that the integrity and stability of system requirements are the predominant factors in our ability to meet PD milestones and budgets. Statistical methods and tools now exist for the System Engineer which will facilitate early requirements definition, and will assist in trade studies as far back as Science and Technology phases. Likewise, statistical and other DFSS methods and tools are available for detail design. These capabilities coupled with a well-defined integrated Product Development methodology give a whole new meaning and great improvements to the concept of “transition to production”. The result: more robust requirements, more robust designs, reduced production costs, but also reduced risk in meeting Product Development schedules.