The document describes the River Basin Explorer, a modelling tool used for river basin planning in Turkey. It consists of several modules: 1. RIBASIM, a hydrological model that calculates water flows. It was used to provide input to the WFD Explorer. 2. The WFD Explorer, which models water quality, emissions from different sources, and retention. It was calibrated using monitoring data. 3. An ecological module using a neural network model (PUNN) to predict ecological quality based on key factors for different water types defined by experts. Knowledge rules were developed and implemented in the WFD Explorer. The results were presented to stakeholders to explain how the models can help determine water

1. The River Basin Explorer
A modelling tool for river basin planning in Turkey
Clara Chrzanowski (clara.chrzanowski@deltares.nl) &
Marieke Fennema (marieke.fennema@witteveenbos.com)
Delft Software Days 2015
November 2nd 2015

2. Bűyűk Menderes catchment
E. MeijersE. Meijers
Water body classes
Artificial
Heavily modified
Natural
Basin: 24873 km²
E. Meijers
E. Meijers
INDUSTRIESLargeherds.co.nzAGRICULTURE
RESERVOIRSE. Meijers

3. River Basin Explorer
0D-RIBASIM
GIS maps
Networks
Meteo
Flow
Hydrology Ecology
Species
EQR
EKF
Ecological
knowledge rules
PUNN
WFD-Explorer
Loads
Substances
Processes
Water Quality
WFD Explorer schematization

4. Emissions
Retention
Workflow of modelling activities
WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic IndustrialDiffuse
Model
results
Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Ecology

5. Hydrology
RIBASIM is a water balance tool, able to match water demands and
supplies.
Objective: to prepare the hydrological input for the WFD-Explorer
providing
• flow through all the WFD water bodies
• In a dry, a wet and a normal year
• On a quarterly basis
Used in WFD-Explorer:
• To calculate transport of pollutants
• To assess difference between natural and artificial flow regime

6. RIBASIM – WFD-Explorer coupling
Water bodies = Surface water
units

7. WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic IndustrialDiffuse
Emissions
Model
results
Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Water Quality
Ecology

8. Water Quality
Domestic IndustrialDiffuse
Emissions
Animal/ or manure
Land use
Fertilizer
Septic tanks
Treated sewer water (WWTP)
Untreated sewer water
Industrial plants
Regulation tables
• steady state
• Σ Qin = Σ Qout
• Σ Min = Σ Mout + Mretention
• simplified first order decay processes to model retention processes
• seasonal intervals of 4 seasons per year
Point sourcesDiffuse sources
Focus on nitrogen, phosphorus and COD

9. WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic IndustrialDiffuse
Emissions
Model
results
Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
Water Quality
Ecology

10. Calibration (1): TP
1. Hydrological analysis:
• Add flows per capita in RIBASIM
• Minimal outflow of Cine reservoir

11. Calibration (2): TP
2. Time dependent diffuse sources
• They come with the runoff of the land
• Peak in winter season

12. Calibration (3): TP
3. Add decay:
• First order decay for TN, TP and COD (k =0.01 d-1)
• Related to residence time

13. Calibration (4): TP
4. Add temperature:
• Decay is dependent on water temperature:
k = k20 * theta(T-20) with theta = 1.047

14. Monitoring locations for validation/calibration

15. WQ Results Downstream: near Soke

16. WQ Results Upstream: Denizli tributary
07-21-00-002

17. TN: Modeled (2010) vs. Observed (2010)
Factor = Modelled / Observed:
• Green: good aggreement
• Pink: Moderate aggreement
(underestimate)
• Red: Bad agreement (underestimate)

18. WFD Explorer schematization
Hydrology
(RIBASIM) Domestic IndustrialDiffuse
Emissions
Model
results
Monitoring data
Calibrate, validate
Import
flows
Retention
Ecological
Module
Ecological
Key Factors
Measures
WQ and Ecology
Ecology

19. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR = f (KF)
Ecological quality ratio : WFD (0-1) expression of ecological quality for
different biological groups (fish, macrophytes, algae, ...)
Key factors for ecology: most determining factors for ecological water
quality (country specific  Turkey, NL)
Function calculated with the use of a deep learning network
-PUNN (product unit neural network)
-Regression trees
-Standard neural network
Predicts the effect of
measures

20. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR = f (KF)
Ecological quality ratio : WFD (0-1) expression of ecological quality for
different biological groups (phytoplankton, phytobentos, macro-
invertebrates, macrophytes, fish)
Water Framework Directive:
European directive on
(ecological) water quality

21. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
PUNN: product-unit neural network
(deep lakes)
K
F
E
Q
R
Training set and validation set

22. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Work steps to derive ecological knowledge rules:
- Water types  clustering (enough data)
- Key factors for ecology
- Gather EQR data (WFD monitoring) and build up a data matrix
- PUNN calculations to determine ecological knowledge rules
- Expert validation
- Implementation in the WFD explorer

23. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Water type clustering & key factors for ecology
Turkish ecology experts from:
 Universities
 Ministry
 Monitoring departments
 Water institutes
Several experts sessions to determine
which measurable factors influence eco-
logical water quality the most, and to
define clusters of water types

24. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Water type clustering & key factors for ecology
rivers lakes
fast
flowing ,
high
rivers
fast
flowing
perma-
nent
low
fast
flowing
temporal
low
Slow
flowing
rivers
Deep
lakes
(saline
and
fresh)
COD X X X X X
Temperature X X X X
tot-N X X
tot-P X X
Modifications X X X X
Conductivity X X
Toxic elements X X X X X
Artificial flow
regime
X X X X
Suspended solids X X X X X

25. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
Results:
Phyto-
plankton
Phyto-
benthos
Macro-
phytes
Macro
invertebrates
Fish
Deep lakes -
Fast flowing high rivers ++ ++ +
Fast, low and permanent
rivers ++ +/- +
Slow flowing rivers ++ +/- + +
Fast, low and temporal
rivers ++ + +

26. Ecological knowlegde rules WFD-Explorer
EQR at slow
flowing
rivers
Training set Test set
perc. inside
0.10
RMSE coeff. of
determ.
perc. inside
0.10
RMSE coeff. of
determ.
Phytobenthos
92 % 0.044 0.94 83 % 0.064 0.89

27. Conclusions of the Buyuk Menderes project
• Data availability and accessibility is an issue!
• First step in creating a River Basin Management model
• Model is not perfect  can be improved
• Hydrological  improved rainfall runoff concepts
• Emissions and water quality  use of monitoring data of point
sources
• Ecology  enhanced EKF, more data to train PUNN
• Model can be used to:
• Evaluate relative contribution of different sources
(domestic/industrial/agriculture)
• Identify and evaluate measures

28. Stakeholder process
• Explanation use of models in water resource management
• Dutch water board: use of WFD-Explorer in Dutch measure
strategies
• Use of model to determine strategies with stakeholders

29. Questions
?