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Does My
Vote Matter?
Hamilton Says:
"A fondness for power is implanted, in most
men, and it is natural to abuse it, when
acquired."*
* In “The Farmer Refuted,” 1775
Constitution Leadership Initiative
www.ConstitutionLeadership.org
Note: Donations to CLI are tax-deductible
Sources
Enlightened
Democracy,
By Tara Ross
The Evolution and
Destruction of the
Original Electoral
College,
by Gary & Carolyn
Alder
Inventing the
American
Presidency,
Thomas Cronin,
ed.
Choosing a
President: The
Electoral College
and Beyond, by
Paul D.
Schumaker &
Burdett A. Loomis
The Electoral
College Primer,
by Lawrence D.
Longley & Neal
R. Peirce
Surprise!!
The American people were never intended to be involved in
electing the President!
5
Our Presidents – 44 of Them!
How Do You Select A President
For The First Time?
Under the Articles of Confederation there was no
true Chief Executive
The President of Congress was an administrative
title with little authority other than to manage the
business of Congress
A true Chief Executive was needed; short of a
King, and yet more powerful than the President of
Congress
At The Constitutional
Convention
The Virginia Plan - National Executive to be chosen by
the National Legislature, for the term of seven years.
The South Carolina Plan: The Senate and House of
Delegates shall annually choose the President of the
United States from among themselves or the People at
large.
The New Jersey Plan: the United States in Congress
assembled be authorized to elect a federal Executive.
The “British” Plan: a Governor to serve during good
behavior and be elected by Electors chosen by the
people in the Election Districts.
8
Direct Election
Direct election of the President by the people was
discussed but rejected, initially.
 The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential
candidates.
 Small states would be disfavored. (Remember this!)
 Most important: Direct election would consolidate too much
power and influence in one person. (Remember this also!)
Election by the Congress was also not favored
 If Congress was allowed to elect (and re-elect) the
President, he would be beholden to the Congress and too
apt to go along with their initiatives.
If not the people, if not Congress, who’s left to
elect the President?
What About the States?
Small states were reluctant to give up the political
power they enjoyed under the Articles of
Confederation.
The “Grand Compromise” retained equal power in
the Senate and added proportional power in the
House
Something like the “Grand Compromise” was
needed as well for electing the President.
On Sept 4, 1787 the Committee on Detail
proposed the present Electoral College method. It
was adopted on Sept 7.
The Compromise
A chief executive to be elected for a term of four years and
be chosen by electors selected for that purpose.
“Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the
Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal
to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to
which the State may be entitled in the Congress.
“The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the
Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes;
which Day shall be the same throughout the United
States.”
Article II - Continued
“The Electors shall meet in their respective States,
and vote by Ballot for two Persons*, of whom one at
least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with
themselves.
And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted
for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List
they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the
Seat of the Government of the United States,
directed to the President of the Senate.”
* Modified by the 12th Amendment
Article II - Continued
“The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the
Senate and House of Representatives, open all the
Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted.
The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the
President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number
of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who
have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then
the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by
Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a
Majority, then from the five* highest on the List the said
House shall in like Manner chuse the President. “
* Modified by the 12th Amendment
The “Contingent” Election
“But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be
taken by States, the Representation from each State
having one Vote; … a Majority of all the States shall
be necessary to a Choice.
In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the
Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the
Electors shall be the Vice President.
But if there should remain two or more who have
equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by
Ballot the Vice President.”
Note: The contingent election was seen as the likely
outcome of most elections
The End Result
“The President was to be, like the Senate, the
creature of the states and not of Congress”* (and
not of the people)
The states totally controlled (and still control) how
electors are selected
The electors were originally only to nominate two
people for President. The Congress would
complete the election by counting the nominations
and, if necessary settling ties or lack of a majority.
* Donald Lutz, et al, “The Electoral College in Historical and Philosophical
Perspective: in “Choosing a President”, Paul D. Schumaker, ed.
Hamilton Liked it
“I … hesitate not to affirm, that if the
manner of it be not perfect, it is at
least excellent.”
The Electoral College Worked
Well - Twice Two
terms,
then I’m
outta
here!
Side Note: Essays on
Presidential Elections
As a side note: the study of Presidential elections
is fascinating if you find an author willing to dig into
the political intrigue that accompanied most of
them.
Constituting America’s 90-Day Study this year was
devoted to a review of every one of the elections
we have enjoyed (or suffered, depending on your
point of view). I suggest you explore the essays
here:
http://constitutingamerica.org/docs/90DayStudyPre
sidentialElections.pdf
Another Side Note: Books On
Presidential Elections
Goodreads.com lists 61 books written about
presidential elections.
They discuss the results of 28 different elections.
The election of 1800 enjoys the most interest
(5 books).
The Election of 1789
Presidential candidate
Federalist/
Anti-Federalist*
Home state
Electoral
vote
George Washington Federalist Virginia 69
John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 34
John Jay Federalist New York 9
Robert H. Harrison Federalist Maryland 6
John Rutledge Federalist South Carolina 6
John Hancock Federalist Massachusetts 4
George Clinton Anti-Federalist New York 3
Samuel Huntington Federalist Connecticut 2
John Milton Federalist Georgia 2
James Armstrong Federalist Georgia 1
Benjamin Lincoln Federalist Massachusetts 1
Edward Telfair Anti-Federalist Georgia 1
Total 138
Needed to win 35
* Supported or rejected the Constitution
69 total electors
Presidential
candidate
Party Home state
Electoral
vote
George
Washington
None
Virginia
132
John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 77
George Clinton
Democratic-
Republican New York
50
Thomas Jefferson
Democratic-
Republican Virginia
4
Aaron Burr
Democratic-
Republican New York
1
Total 264
Needed to win 67132 total electors
The Election of 1792
Presidential candidate Party Home state
Electoral
vote
John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 71
Thomas Jefferson Democratic-Republican Virginia 68
Thomas Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 59
Aaron Burr Democratic-Republican New York 30
Samuel Adams Democratic-Republican Massachusetts 15
Oliver Ellsworth Federalist Connecticut 11
George Clinton Democratic-Republican New York 7
John Jay Federalist New York 5
James Iredell Federalist North Carolina 3
George Washington Federalist Virginia 2
John Henry Democratic-Republican Maryland 2
Samuel Johnston Federalist North Carolina 2
Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 1
Total 276
Needed to win 70138 total electors, 71 Fed, 67 DR
The Election of 1796
Presidential candidate Party Home state
Electoral
vote
Thomas Jefferson
Democratic-
Republican Virginia
73
Aaron Burr
Democratic-
Republican New York
73
John Adams(incumbent) Federalist Massachusetts 65
Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 64
John Jay Federalist New York 1
Total 276
Needed to win 70138 total electors, 73 DR, 65 Fed
The Election of 1800
The 1800 Contingent Election
 In the contingent election, 16 states voted,
9 votes needed to win.
 1-35th ballot:
8 Jefferson
6 Burr
2 Null (Maryland, 4-4, and Vermont, 1-1)
 36th ballot:
10 Jefferson
4 Burr
2 Null (Delaware and South Carolina)
12th Amendment - 1804
The Electors shall meet in their respective states,
and vote by ballot for President and Vice-
President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an
inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they
shall name in their ballots the person voted for as
President, and in distinct ballots the person voted
for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct
lists of all persons voted for as President, and all
persons voted for as Vice-President and of the
number of votes for each, which lists they shall
sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of
the government of the United States, directed to
the President of the Senate.
Who Are These “Electors?”
“No Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office
of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed
an Elector.” This is the only qualification.
Pennsylvania - 2008
Appointing vs Electing Electors
In 1789, four of the ten states* voting used direct
appointment of electors by the state legislature.
Nine of fifteen states did so in 1792
Ten of sixteen states did so in 1800
Half the states still did so in 1812
By 1824, however, all but two states were allowing popular
election of electors (South Carolina held out until after the
Civil War)
* NC & RI were not yet states, NY didn’t choose electors in time
Choosing Electors Today
In 34 states, state party conventions nominate a slate
of electors.
In 10 states (plus D.C.) state party committees
nominate the party’s electors.
One state (AZ) nominates the electors in primary
elections.
The remaining 5 states use a variety of methods. PA
alone authorizes the national presidential candidates
to nominate electors for his/her party.
Current Electoral Vote Allocation
California 55 Wisconsin 10 Arkansas 6
Texas 38 Missouri 10 West Virginia 5
New York 29 Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5
Florida 29 Maryland 10 Nebraska 5
Pennsylvania 20 South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4
Illinois 20 Colorado 9 New Hampshire 4
Ohio 18 Alabama 9 Maine 4
Michigan 16 Louisiana 8 Idaho 4
Georgia 16 Kentucky 8 Hawaii 4
North Carolina 15 Oregon 7 Wyoming 3
New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3
Virginia 13 Connecticut 7 South Dakota 3
Washington 12 Utah 6 North Dakota 3
Tennessee 11 Nevada 6 Montana 3
Massachusetts 11 Mississippi 6 Delaware 3
Indiana 11 Kansas 6 Alaska 3
Arizona 11 Iowa 6 District of Columbia 3 Thanks to the
23rd Amendment
538 Total
Electoral
Votes,
270 to
win!
What About “Faithless” Electors?
Ironically, electors who vote their consciences (as the
Framers intended) are today called “faithless.”
There have been 158 instances of “faithless” electors; none
have changed the outcome of an election.
Virginia is one of 31 states — including the District of
Columbia — with a law seeking to bind the votes of
presidential electors.
However, no “faithless” elector has ever been prosecuted for
their vote
The Supreme Court has ruled electors can be expected to
honor their pledges, but has not ruled on what happens if
they don’t.
From 1800 to 1996
 Most elections worked well.
With a few exceptions that we’ll explain in a
moment.
“Problem Elections”
 In 1800, the House of Representatives settled an electoral vote tie
by choosing Thomas Jefferson over Aaron Burr
 In 1824, the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams
over Andrew Jackson even though Jackson had more electoral
votes (but not a majority)
 In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden by one
electoral vote even though Tilden had 3% more popular votes.
 In 1888, Benjamin Harrison won the electoral college although
Grover Cleveland had more popular votes
 In 1912, Woodrow Wilson won the electoral college with only a
plurality of popular votes
 In 1948, Harry Truman won the electoral college with only a
plurality of popular votes
And Then Came 2000
Popular Vote Totals
Gore: 50,999,897
Bush: 50,456,002
Nader: 2,882,955
Others: 9,302,797
Bush: 271 ElecVotes
Gore: 266 ElecVotes
271 + 266 = 537, where’s the last vote?
Results In Florida
Candidate Party Votes Percentage
George Bush Republican 2,912,790 48.85%
Al Gore Democrat 2,912,253 48.84%
Ralph Nadar Green 97,488 1.63%
Pat Buchanan Reform 17,484 0.29%
Harry Browne Libertarian 16,415 0.28%
Howard Phillips Constitution 1,371 0.02%
John Hagelin Natural Law 2,281 0.04%
Others None 3,028 0.05%
 = 357
What About The “Spoilers?”
In two states won by Bush, Ralph Nader’s vote
total was larger than Bush’s winning margin:
 FL-25 (537 winning margin, 97,488 Nader votes),
 NH-4 (7,211 winning margin, 22,198 Nader votes)
If New Hampshire’s Nader votes had gone to Gore
instead (or even half of them), Gore would have
won the state, and the election!
(Outcome: Gore = 270, Bush = 267)
What About “Wasted Votes?”
All votes in excess of 50.01% of the votes cast have no effect
on the outcome.
Using this criteria, Republicans “wasted” 2,266,880 votes
Democrats “wasted” 2,176,382 votes
Bottom line: unless you can predict a majority win instead
of a plurality win, no vote is “wasted”.
But, Bush won four states (54 EC votes) with pluralities
Gore won six states (44 EC Votes) with pluralities
The National Popular Vote Project
What NPV Proposes
Modify the present “winner-take-all” rules in 48
states* to instead pledge all state electoral votes to
winner of the national popular vote.
This can be done through simple state law
changes.
No need for a Constitutional amendment.
After implementing, at some point a Constitutional
amendment would be proposed to remove the
Electoral College verbiage
* Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by district
NPV Progress
NPV has been enacted into law in 11 states (+ D.C.)*
controlling 165 electoral votes.
It will take effect (in those states) when enacted by
states controlling 105 more votes.
The bill has passed a total of 34 state legislative
chambers in 23 states.
Recent success: 40–16 vote in the AZ House, 28–18 in
the OK Senate, and 37–21 in the OR House.
* all Blue States in 2000
One Problem With The NPV
“No State shall, without the Consent of
Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep
Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace,
enter into any Agreement or Compact with
another State, or with a foreign Power, or
engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in
such imminent Danger as will not admit of
delay.” Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3.
Another Problem
 NPV asks states to approve legislation in
which they ignore the will of the voters of
their own state and instead award electoral
votes to the winner of a national contest.
 Today, the Electoral College winner must
assemble a broad coalition of big states,
little states, urban populations and rural
populations to be successful.
 NPV will permit a concentration of support
in large urban populations to prevail.
In Review:
Four factors have undermined the Electoral
College
The emergence of political parties
 Electors pledged to party candidates
 Election rather than appointment of electors
“Winner-take-all” allocation of state electoral
votes
The Electoral College does not function as
designed, but it still functions to produce
legitimate Presidents.
Let’s Just Get Rid of the
Political Parties!
Ain’t gonna happen!
What Were The Framers’
Concerns Again?
The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential
candidates.
Small states would be disfavored.
 The 11 largest states control 270 EC votes
 Of the 25 states with the largest VEP, 15 voted Blue,
10 voted Red in 2012
 The 25 largest states have 81% of the nation’s Voting
Eligible Population
Conclusion: Direct election favors the large states at the
expense of the small states.
One More Result of Direct
Election
“[Roosevelt] believed that
as President, he had a
unique relationship with and
responsibility to the people,
and therefore wanted to
challenge prevailing notions
of limited government and
individualism; government,
he maintained, should
serve as an agent of reform
for the people.”
Roosevelt’s violations
of the President’s
limited Constitutional
powers are legendary
45
Other Presidents Expanded
Executive Powers
"A fondness for power is implanted, in most
men, and it is natural to abuse it, when
acquired.“ Alexander Hamilton
So, Does My Vote Matter?
Yes – every vote matters (potentially). You
can never know in advance whose vote will
put a candidate over 50.01%.
In Summary
 If you want the large states to dominate
future Presidential elections… support NPV
support NPV
 If you want a President who acts as though
he represents the combined political power
of 320 million Americans…
 If you want to move ever closer to a pure
democracy, a form of government that the
Founders abhorred…support NPV
If not, we should stick with the admittedly
dysfunctional system we currently have.
What Can/Should I Do?
Spend (more) time studying the Framers original
plan and rationale.
Work to inform people of the rationale of the original
system.
49
“We the People, the Constitution Matters”
http://www.1180wfyl.com
Reason for Hope Conference
 Sponsored by The Foundation for
American Christian Education,
Chesapeake, VA
 November 11-12, 2016
 Atlantic Shores Baptist Church, VB
Questions/Comments?
www.ConstitutionLeadership.org
gary@constitutionleadership.org
757-817-1216

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Does My Vote Matter-VALS

  • 2. Hamilton Says: "A fondness for power is implanted, in most men, and it is natural to abuse it, when acquired."* * In “The Farmer Refuted,” 1775
  • 4. Sources Enlightened Democracy, By Tara Ross The Evolution and Destruction of the Original Electoral College, by Gary & Carolyn Alder Inventing the American Presidency, Thomas Cronin, ed. Choosing a President: The Electoral College and Beyond, by Paul D. Schumaker & Burdett A. Loomis The Electoral College Primer, by Lawrence D. Longley & Neal R. Peirce
  • 5. Surprise!! The American people were never intended to be involved in electing the President! 5
  • 6. Our Presidents – 44 of Them!
  • 7. How Do You Select A President For The First Time? Under the Articles of Confederation there was no true Chief Executive The President of Congress was an administrative title with little authority other than to manage the business of Congress A true Chief Executive was needed; short of a King, and yet more powerful than the President of Congress
  • 8. At The Constitutional Convention The Virginia Plan - National Executive to be chosen by the National Legislature, for the term of seven years. The South Carolina Plan: The Senate and House of Delegates shall annually choose the President of the United States from among themselves or the People at large. The New Jersey Plan: the United States in Congress assembled be authorized to elect a federal Executive. The “British” Plan: a Governor to serve during good behavior and be elected by Electors chosen by the people in the Election Districts. 8
  • 9. Direct Election Direct election of the President by the people was discussed but rejected, initially.  The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential candidates.  Small states would be disfavored. (Remember this!)  Most important: Direct election would consolidate too much power and influence in one person. (Remember this also!) Election by the Congress was also not favored  If Congress was allowed to elect (and re-elect) the President, he would be beholden to the Congress and too apt to go along with their initiatives. If not the people, if not Congress, who’s left to elect the President?
  • 10. What About the States? Small states were reluctant to give up the political power they enjoyed under the Articles of Confederation. The “Grand Compromise” retained equal power in the Senate and added proportional power in the House Something like the “Grand Compromise” was needed as well for electing the President. On Sept 4, 1787 the Committee on Detail proposed the present Electoral College method. It was adopted on Sept 7.
  • 11. The Compromise A chief executive to be elected for a term of four years and be chosen by electors selected for that purpose. “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress. “The Congress may determine the Time of choosing the Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their Votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States.”
  • 12. Article II - Continued “The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons*, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves. And they shall make a List of all the Persons voted for, and of the Number of Votes for each; which List they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.” * Modified by the 12th Amendment
  • 13. Article II - Continued “The President of the Senate shall, in the Presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the Certificates, and the Votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five* highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President. “ * Modified by the 12th Amendment
  • 14. The “Contingent” Election “But in chusing the President, the Votes shall be taken by States, the Representation from each State having one Vote; … a Majority of all the States shall be necessary to a Choice. In every Case, after the Choice of the President, the Person having the greatest Number of Votes of the Electors shall be the Vice President. But if there should remain two or more who have equal Votes, the Senate shall chuse from them by Ballot the Vice President.” Note: The contingent election was seen as the likely outcome of most elections
  • 15. The End Result “The President was to be, like the Senate, the creature of the states and not of Congress”* (and not of the people) The states totally controlled (and still control) how electors are selected The electors were originally only to nominate two people for President. The Congress would complete the election by counting the nominations and, if necessary settling ties or lack of a majority. * Donald Lutz, et al, “The Electoral College in Historical and Philosophical Perspective: in “Choosing a President”, Paul D. Schumaker, ed.
  • 16. Hamilton Liked it “I … hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent.”
  • 17. The Electoral College Worked Well - Twice Two terms, then I’m outta here!
  • 18. Side Note: Essays on Presidential Elections As a side note: the study of Presidential elections is fascinating if you find an author willing to dig into the political intrigue that accompanied most of them. Constituting America’s 90-Day Study this year was devoted to a review of every one of the elections we have enjoyed (or suffered, depending on your point of view). I suggest you explore the essays here: http://constitutingamerica.org/docs/90DayStudyPre sidentialElections.pdf
  • 19. Another Side Note: Books On Presidential Elections Goodreads.com lists 61 books written about presidential elections. They discuss the results of 28 different elections. The election of 1800 enjoys the most interest (5 books).
  • 20. The Election of 1789 Presidential candidate Federalist/ Anti-Federalist* Home state Electoral vote George Washington Federalist Virginia 69 John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 34 John Jay Federalist New York 9 Robert H. Harrison Federalist Maryland 6 John Rutledge Federalist South Carolina 6 John Hancock Federalist Massachusetts 4 George Clinton Anti-Federalist New York 3 Samuel Huntington Federalist Connecticut 2 John Milton Federalist Georgia 2 James Armstrong Federalist Georgia 1 Benjamin Lincoln Federalist Massachusetts 1 Edward Telfair Anti-Federalist Georgia 1 Total 138 Needed to win 35 * Supported or rejected the Constitution 69 total electors
  • 21. Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral vote George Washington None Virginia 132 John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 77 George Clinton Democratic- Republican New York 50 Thomas Jefferson Democratic- Republican Virginia 4 Aaron Burr Democratic- Republican New York 1 Total 264 Needed to win 67132 total electors The Election of 1792
  • 22. Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral vote John Adams Federalist Massachusetts 71 Thomas Jefferson Democratic-Republican Virginia 68 Thomas Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 59 Aaron Burr Democratic-Republican New York 30 Samuel Adams Democratic-Republican Massachusetts 15 Oliver Ellsworth Federalist Connecticut 11 George Clinton Democratic-Republican New York 7 John Jay Federalist New York 5 James Iredell Federalist North Carolina 3 George Washington Federalist Virginia 2 John Henry Democratic-Republican Maryland 2 Samuel Johnston Federalist North Carolina 2 Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 1 Total 276 Needed to win 70138 total electors, 71 Fed, 67 DR The Election of 1796
  • 23. Presidential candidate Party Home state Electoral vote Thomas Jefferson Democratic- Republican Virginia 73 Aaron Burr Democratic- Republican New York 73 John Adams(incumbent) Federalist Massachusetts 65 Charles C. Pinckney Federalist South Carolina 64 John Jay Federalist New York 1 Total 276 Needed to win 70138 total electors, 73 DR, 65 Fed The Election of 1800
  • 24. The 1800 Contingent Election  In the contingent election, 16 states voted, 9 votes needed to win.  1-35th ballot: 8 Jefferson 6 Burr 2 Null (Maryland, 4-4, and Vermont, 1-1)  36th ballot: 10 Jefferson 4 Burr 2 Null (Delaware and South Carolina)
  • 25. 12th Amendment - 1804 The Electors shall meet in their respective states, and vote by ballot for President and Vice- President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves; they shall name in their ballots the person voted for as President, and in distinct ballots the person voted for as Vice-President, and they shall make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and all persons voted for as Vice-President and of the number of votes for each, which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate.
  • 26. Who Are These “Electors?” “No Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.” This is the only qualification. Pennsylvania - 2008
  • 27. Appointing vs Electing Electors In 1789, four of the ten states* voting used direct appointment of electors by the state legislature. Nine of fifteen states did so in 1792 Ten of sixteen states did so in 1800 Half the states still did so in 1812 By 1824, however, all but two states were allowing popular election of electors (South Carolina held out until after the Civil War) * NC & RI were not yet states, NY didn’t choose electors in time
  • 28. Choosing Electors Today In 34 states, state party conventions nominate a slate of electors. In 10 states (plus D.C.) state party committees nominate the party’s electors. One state (AZ) nominates the electors in primary elections. The remaining 5 states use a variety of methods. PA alone authorizes the national presidential candidates to nominate electors for his/her party.
  • 29. Current Electoral Vote Allocation California 55 Wisconsin 10 Arkansas 6 Texas 38 Missouri 10 West Virginia 5 New York 29 Minnesota 10 New Mexico 5 Florida 29 Maryland 10 Nebraska 5 Pennsylvania 20 South Carolina 9 Rhode Island 4 Illinois 20 Colorado 9 New Hampshire 4 Ohio 18 Alabama 9 Maine 4 Michigan 16 Louisiana 8 Idaho 4 Georgia 16 Kentucky 8 Hawaii 4 North Carolina 15 Oregon 7 Wyoming 3 New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3 Virginia 13 Connecticut 7 South Dakota 3 Washington 12 Utah 6 North Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Nevada 6 Montana 3 Massachusetts 11 Mississippi 6 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Kansas 6 Alaska 3 Arizona 11 Iowa 6 District of Columbia 3 Thanks to the 23rd Amendment 538 Total Electoral Votes, 270 to win!
  • 30. What About “Faithless” Electors? Ironically, electors who vote their consciences (as the Framers intended) are today called “faithless.” There have been 158 instances of “faithless” electors; none have changed the outcome of an election. Virginia is one of 31 states — including the District of Columbia — with a law seeking to bind the votes of presidential electors. However, no “faithless” elector has ever been prosecuted for their vote The Supreme Court has ruled electors can be expected to honor their pledges, but has not ruled on what happens if they don’t.
  • 31. From 1800 to 1996  Most elections worked well. With a few exceptions that we’ll explain in a moment.
  • 32. “Problem Elections”  In 1800, the House of Representatives settled an electoral vote tie by choosing Thomas Jefferson over Aaron Burr  In 1824, the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson even though Jackson had more electoral votes (but not a majority)  In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes defeated Samuel Tilden by one electoral vote even though Tilden had 3% more popular votes.  In 1888, Benjamin Harrison won the electoral college although Grover Cleveland had more popular votes  In 1912, Woodrow Wilson won the electoral college with only a plurality of popular votes  In 1948, Harry Truman won the electoral college with only a plurality of popular votes
  • 33. And Then Came 2000 Popular Vote Totals Gore: 50,999,897 Bush: 50,456,002 Nader: 2,882,955 Others: 9,302,797 Bush: 271 ElecVotes Gore: 266 ElecVotes 271 + 266 = 537, where’s the last vote?
  • 34. Results In Florida Candidate Party Votes Percentage George Bush Republican 2,912,790 48.85% Al Gore Democrat 2,912,253 48.84% Ralph Nadar Green 97,488 1.63% Pat Buchanan Reform 17,484 0.29% Harry Browne Libertarian 16,415 0.28% Howard Phillips Constitution 1,371 0.02% John Hagelin Natural Law 2,281 0.04% Others None 3,028 0.05%  = 357
  • 35. What About The “Spoilers?” In two states won by Bush, Ralph Nader’s vote total was larger than Bush’s winning margin:  FL-25 (537 winning margin, 97,488 Nader votes),  NH-4 (7,211 winning margin, 22,198 Nader votes) If New Hampshire’s Nader votes had gone to Gore instead (or even half of them), Gore would have won the state, and the election! (Outcome: Gore = 270, Bush = 267)
  • 36. What About “Wasted Votes?” All votes in excess of 50.01% of the votes cast have no effect on the outcome. Using this criteria, Republicans “wasted” 2,266,880 votes Democrats “wasted” 2,176,382 votes Bottom line: unless you can predict a majority win instead of a plurality win, no vote is “wasted”. But, Bush won four states (54 EC votes) with pluralities Gore won six states (44 EC Votes) with pluralities
  • 37. The National Popular Vote Project
  • 38. What NPV Proposes Modify the present “winner-take-all” rules in 48 states* to instead pledge all state electoral votes to winner of the national popular vote. This can be done through simple state law changes. No need for a Constitutional amendment. After implementing, at some point a Constitutional amendment would be proposed to remove the Electoral College verbiage * Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by district
  • 39. NPV Progress NPV has been enacted into law in 11 states (+ D.C.)* controlling 165 electoral votes. It will take effect (in those states) when enacted by states controlling 105 more votes. The bill has passed a total of 34 state legislative chambers in 23 states. Recent success: 40–16 vote in the AZ House, 28–18 in the OK Senate, and 37–21 in the OR House. * all Blue States in 2000
  • 40. One Problem With The NPV “No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.” Article 1, Section 10, Clause 3.
  • 41. Another Problem  NPV asks states to approve legislation in which they ignore the will of the voters of their own state and instead award electoral votes to the winner of a national contest.  Today, the Electoral College winner must assemble a broad coalition of big states, little states, urban populations and rural populations to be successful.  NPV will permit a concentration of support in large urban populations to prevail.
  • 42. In Review: Four factors have undermined the Electoral College The emergence of political parties  Electors pledged to party candidates  Election rather than appointment of electors “Winner-take-all” allocation of state electoral votes The Electoral College does not function as designed, but it still functions to produce legitimate Presidents.
  • 43. Let’s Just Get Rid of the Political Parties! Ain’t gonna happen!
  • 44. What Were The Framers’ Concerns Again? The people lack awareness and knowledge of potential candidates. Small states would be disfavored.  The 11 largest states control 270 EC votes  Of the 25 states with the largest VEP, 15 voted Blue, 10 voted Red in 2012  The 25 largest states have 81% of the nation’s Voting Eligible Population Conclusion: Direct election favors the large states at the expense of the small states.
  • 45. One More Result of Direct Election “[Roosevelt] believed that as President, he had a unique relationship with and responsibility to the people, and therefore wanted to challenge prevailing notions of limited government and individualism; government, he maintained, should serve as an agent of reform for the people.” Roosevelt’s violations of the President’s limited Constitutional powers are legendary 45
  • 46. Other Presidents Expanded Executive Powers "A fondness for power is implanted, in most men, and it is natural to abuse it, when acquired.“ Alexander Hamilton
  • 47. So, Does My Vote Matter? Yes – every vote matters (potentially). You can never know in advance whose vote will put a candidate over 50.01%.
  • 48. In Summary  If you want the large states to dominate future Presidential elections… support NPV support NPV  If you want a President who acts as though he represents the combined political power of 320 million Americans…  If you want to move ever closer to a pure democracy, a form of government that the Founders abhorred…support NPV If not, we should stick with the admittedly dysfunctional system we currently have.
  • 49. What Can/Should I Do? Spend (more) time studying the Framers original plan and rationale. Work to inform people of the rationale of the original system. 49
  • 50. “We the People, the Constitution Matters” http://www.1180wfyl.com
  • 51. Reason for Hope Conference  Sponsored by The Foundation for American Christian Education, Chesapeake, VA  November 11-12, 2016  Atlantic Shores Baptist Church, VB

Editor's Notes

  1. In the essay entitled: The Farmer Refuted, 1775, Alexander Hamilton reminded us: "A fondness for power is implanted, in most men, and it is natural to abuse it, when acquired."* As we will see: the Chief Executive of the U.S. has not been immune.
  2. The Constitution Leadership Initiative was formed to encourage a better understanding of the U.S. Constitution among the American people. We offer Saturday Seminars on the U.S. Constitution to groups and individuals. Seminars tailored to children are also available. CLI is a 501(c)(3) tax deductible organization. All the essays I’ve ever written are available through a Dropbox link found on the website and we link to other great internet resources pertaining to the Constitution as well.
  3. May 29, 1787 - Virginia Plan May 29, 1787 - South Carolina Plan June 15, 1787 - New Jersey Plan June 18, 1787 - The British Plan was initially ignored, no proposals to adopt any of it ensued.
  4. Today’s House: 273 Republicans, 162 Democrats, 34 Red delegations, 13 Blue delegations, 3 split delegations Maine (2), New Hampshire (2) and New Jersey (12) have split delegations in the House Today’s Senate: 53 Red Senators, 47 Blue/Independent Senators; 13 states have split Senators
  5. Translation: we expect to find electors capable of “analyzing the qualities” needed in the “station” of President, being left alone to deliberate over the possible candidates and weigh all the “reasons and inducements” appropriate to making an informed choice.
  6. Elections held from Monday, December 15, 1788, to Saturday, January 10, 1789. 69 Electors appointed. 35 votes needed to win. Note: none of these men ran for office. All electors gave one nomination to Washington and the second nomination to one of 11 other men. *No political parties existed, you either supported the new Constitution (Federalists) or you didn’t (Anti-Federalists). Only ten states out of the original thirteen cast electoral votes in this election. North Carolina and Rhode Island were ineligible to participate as they had not yet ratified the United States Constitution. New York failed to appoint its allotment of eight electors in time because of a deadlock in the state legislature. 6 of the 10 states casting electoral votes chose electors by some form of popular vote. Less than 1.3% of the population voted: the 1790 Census would count a total population of 3.0 million with a free population of 2.4 million and 600,000 slaves in those states casting electoral votes in this election. Those states that did choose electors by popular vote had widely varying restrictions on suffrage via property requirements. Two electors from Maryland did not vote. One elector from Virginia did not vote and another elector from Virginia was not chosen because an election district failed to submit returns. Electors selected by legislature: Connecticut, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina. Two electors appointed by state legislature; each remaining elector chosen by state legislature from list of top two vote-getters in each congressional district: Massachusetts State is divided into electoral districts, with one elector chosen per district by the voters of that district: Virginia, Delaware Electors chosen at large by voters, Maryland, PA There were 65 Representatives and 20 Senators in the first Congress
  7. Held from Friday, November 2 to Wednesday, December 5, 1792. 132 Electors appointed, 67 votes needed to win. 15 states in the union This election was the first in which each of the original 13 states appointed electors (in addition to newly added states of Kentucky and Vermont). In 9 of the 15 states the legislature chose electors
  8. How about Barack Obama as President and Mitt Romney as VP? Held from Friday, November 4 to Wednesday, December 7, 1796. 138 electors appointed (71 Federalist and 67 Democratic-Republican). 70 votes to win. Electors cast ballots on same day, were thus unable to successfully coordinate how their second votes were to be cast. First election with winners from different political parties. Only 7 of the 16 states had the legislature appoint electors 12 Federalist electors decided not to use their second nomination for Thomas Pinckney, one voted for Jefferson and the rest scattered their votes Thomas Jefferson, Former Secretary of State Thomas Pinckney, former Gov of S. Carolina Aaron Burr, Senator from NY Samuel Adams, Gov of MA Oliver Ellsworth, U.S. Chief Justice George Clinton, former Gov of NY John Jay, Gov of NY James Iredell, Associate Justice of Supreme Court George Washington John Henry, Senator from MD Samuel Johnston former Senator from NC Charles C. Pinckney, U.S. Minister to France
  9. held from Friday, October 31 to Wednesday, December 3, 1800, 138 Electors appointed: 73 Democratic-Republican, 65 Federalist, 70 votes needed to win Partisans on both sides sought any advantage they could find. In several states, this included changing the process of selecting electors to ensure the desired result. In Georgia, Democratic-Republican legislators replaced the popular vote with selection by the state legislature. Federalist legislators did the same in Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Each party planned to have one second vote cast off to prevent a tie. Dems failed to communicate/execute their plan. In addition, Georgia’s ballot was defective. Vice-President Jefferson, counting the votes in his role as President of the Senate, immediately certified the votes from Georgia as votes for Jefferson and Burr. No objection was raised. Only 6 of the 16 states chose electors by any form of popular vote.
  10. Introduced in the House in 1801, 1802 and 1803. Finally, pressure from the upcoming 1804 election gave it enough support to pass. Also changed contingent election from five to three in the House
  11. On Saturday, April 30th at the James Madison University Convocation Center in Harrisonburg, Virginia Republicans voted for two Electoral College Electors (to cast Virginia’s vote in the Electoral College if the Republican nominee for president wins Virginia)
  12. Oklahoma and Washington impose a civil penalty of $1,000; in North Carolina, the fine is $500, the faithless elector is deemed to have resigned, and a replacement is appointed. In South Carolina, an elector who violates his or her pledge is subject to criminal penalties, and in New Mexico a violation is a fourth degree felony. In Michigan and Utah, a candidate who fails to vote as required is considered to have resigned, and a replacement is appointed. I predict we will see more than one “faithless” elector in the upcoming election. Michigan: "Refusal or failure to vote for the candidates for president and vice-president appearing on the Michigan ballot of the political party which nominated the elector constitutes a resignation from the office of elector, his vote shall not be recorded and the remaining electors shall forthwith fill the vacancy." (Michigan State Statute 168.47) Florida: "Each such elector shall be a qualified elector of the party he or she represents who has taken an oath that he or she will vote for the candidates of the party that he or she is nominated to represent." (Florida State Statute 103.021) Colorado: "Each presidential elector shall vote for the presidential candidate and, by separate ballot, vice-presidential candidate who received the highest number of votes at the preceding general election in this state." (Colorado State Statute 1.4.304
  13. In 1876, 81.8% of eligible voters voted In 2008, 62.3% of eligible voters voted In 2012, 57.5% of eligible voters voted 1912: Taft carried 2 states (Utah and Vermont), Roosevelt 6, and Wilson 40. Wilson had 41.84% of popular vote, Roosevelt 27.40% and Taft 23.17%. Socialist, Prohibition, and Socialist-Labor parties also had candidates 1948: Truman had 49.55% of popular vote, Dewey 45.07%, six other candidates shared the reminder. In 1888, Grover Clevelands support was primarily from the deep south.
  14. In 2000, Gores support was primarily from urban areas. 209,787,000 voting age population. 113,641,651 total votes (50.3% turnout) 543,895 margin for Gore 537 popular votes in Florida gave Bush Florida’s 25 electoral votes, bringing him to 271 total One faithless elector from the District of Columbia, Barbara Lett-Simmons, abstained from voting in protest of the District's lack of voting representation in the United States Congress
  15. The Libertarian Party was on 50 of the 51 ballots (not Arizona) The Reform Party was on 49 of the 51 ballots The Green party appeared on 44 of the 51 ballots The Constitution Party was on 41 of the 51 ballots The Natural Law Party was on 38 of the 51 ballots
  16. 696,000 New Yorkers could have stayed home and Gore would still have won the state 595,000 Texans could have stayed home and Bush would still have won the state Bush pluralities: Ohio, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire Gore pluralities: Maine, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Oregon Smallest plurality margin = 366 New Mexico, largest 165,019 Ohio
  17. Proposes circumventing the final obstacle imposed by the Electoral College -- without a constitutional amendment.
  18. AZ (36 R, 24 D), OK (39 R to 9 D) are Republican controlled, OR (35 D, 25 R) Passed in: California – 55 electoral votes New York – 29 electoral votes Illinois – 20 electoral votes New Jersey – 14 electoral votes Washington – 12 electoral votes Massachusetts – 11 electoral votes Maryland – 10 electoral votes Hawaii – 4 electoral votes Rhode Island – 4 electoral votes Vermont – 3 electoral votes District of Columbia – 3 electoral votes
  19. NPV claims this is not an issue due to many existing inter-state compacts that have not been challenged on constitutional grounds. Supreme Court ruling in U.S. Steel Corporation vs MultiState Tax Commission: Congressional approval is only required in compacts which “encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the United States.”
  20. In other words, if in 2000 a majority of the voters of Texas voted for favorite son George Bush, the state would have instead awarded its electoral votes to Al Gore. The 11 biggest states control 270 electoral votes. Do you want them controlling the national election?
  21. Get rid of the political parties and let the electors return to autonomous operation.
  22. In 2000, Gore won 48.38% of the NPV, Bush won 47.87%. That .51% difference represented 543,895 votes The 11 biggest states control 270 electoral votes. Do you want them controlling the national election?
  23. “Roosevelt was the first President whose election was based more on the individual than the political party. When people voted Republican in 1904, they were generally casting their vote for Roosevelt the man instead of for him as the standard-bearer of the Republican Party.” http://millercenter.org/president/biography/roosevelt-impact-and-legacy
  24. This Friday morning I host a weekly radio show – “We the People – The Constitution Matters” from 7-8am. The show is hosted by WFYL, AM1180 in Valley Forge, PA and the broadcast covers the Philadelphia metropolitan area. You can Listen live from anywhere in the world, however, by going to www.1180wfyl.com. You can also download a podcast of each show from the station’s website. We take phone calls during the show from listeners. Here’s the URL to listen: www.1180wfyl.com