By 2020, several key building blocks of the future tech universe have been firmly established. Significant progress in areas such as quantum computing, big data, artificial intelligence, robotics and immersive reality have been made, enabling a clearer understanding of how tech will develop in the next 10-20 years. By 2030, emerging robotics and AI will have made remarkable progress in changing the face of current industries and processes. Most fast food outlets will run mainly on robotic labour, with human labour representing only a small fraction of total spend. AI will be able to support, and eventually supplant, at least 90% of current effort implemented by service professionals such as accounting, consulting, or law. And by 2040, we will feel comfortable enough with this technology that it will be widely adapted. Our cities, homes and workplaces will be transformed through technology and predictive analytics. Self-driving vehicles will reduce congestion and pollution. Robots will remove the need for widespread human labour. Most processes, such as financial management, will be fully automated and managed by intelligent agents, removing the need for mundane tasks like queuing at a bank or going to a supermarket for groceries. Advances in gene therapies and biological – mechatronic interfaces will rapidly transform medical technology and health outcomes. These have the potential to not only significantly expand human lifespan, but also improve human health. At the same time, it is clear that as a society and as a government / economic policy, we are far behind the curve in understanding how these will affect our educational systems, employment and the very idea of human potential. Comparatively few citizens will be able to adapt successfully to gainful employment (or entrepreneurship) in the future tech society. This means that families and citizens today need to start making decisions for how they will live 20 years from now. These decisions affect their own educational and investment choices, as well as the very nature of our society. Philip Ammerman will discuss the future trends in tech and how these will affect companies, families and governments in 2030 and 2040.

1. DIGITAL UTOPIA
DIGITAL DYSTOPIA
IMAGINING OUR
TECH FUTURE
31 MARCH 2021

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THESIS
By 2030, technology will reach a tipping point where we, as humans, will
have to consciously choose a predominantly human existence over a
predominantly virtual / tech existence.
By 2040, the choice of a virtual / tech existance will dominate human
choice, changing the very meaning of what it means to be human.
We believe that in the near future, online interactions and the wider digital
ecosystem will be more attractive to consumers and citizens than the real one.
PEOPLE WILL PREFER TO LIVE ONLINE

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WHY?
Because modern 4K LED
screens are already making the
screen world more attractive
than the real world, to the
naked eye. 8K screens are
already on the market.
Because augmented and
later immersive and virtual
reality are already
disrupting key B2B
sectors and will shortly
begin B2C sectors.
Because gamification and
social media already cause
dopamine and serotonin
reactions online, resulting in
short-term and long-term
biochemical impacts.
We demand, and get, instant gratification & self-validation online

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THE REAL WORLD NOW DISTURBS US
Standing in line
at the bank
Speaking to a
travel agent to
order a ticket
Explaining to a taxi
driver or food delivery
man where you live
Real world interactions are now disturbing and unnecessary in sectors
that have already been disrupted

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CLEAR SOCIAL RESULTS
People can no longer read: they
scan.
They have difficulty writing.
They cannot process complex
sentences or reasoning.
People can no longer think
critically: they follow the online
crowd. Fake news and electoral
manipulation are now standard.
Society has become polarised.
Prolonged social media use
results in depression and
negative self-image.
This is not a net positive: there are many negative
effects of living in an online wold.

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THE MATRIX (1999): WHAT WE FEAR

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THE MATRIX: WHAT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE

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"More
human than
human" is
our motto.
Bladerunner
(1982)

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A robot may not injure a human being or,
through inaction, allow a human being to come
to harm.
A robot must obey orders given it by human
beings except where such orders would conflict
with the First Law.
A robot must protect its own existence as long as
such protection does not conflict with the First
or Second Law.
Asimov (1942) – iRobot (2004)

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Mr. Marks, by mandate of the District of Columbia Precrime Division, I'm
placing you under arrest for the future murder of Sarah Marks and Donald Dubin
that was to take place today, April 22 at 0800 hours and four minutes.
Minority Report (2002)

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wi
ki/Social_Credit_System
https://nhglobalpartners.c
om/china-social-credit-
system-explained/
https://jpia.princeton.edu/
news/social-credit-
system-not-just-another-
chinese-idiosyncrasy

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Being human totally sucks most
of the time. Videogames are the
only thing that make life
bearable.
Ready Player One (2018)

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TECH STRANDS
Labour
Industrial Revolution > Mass Production > Mass Automation > RPA > Collaborative Robots
> Robotic Self-Assembly > Robotic Ascendancy
Data
Data Capture > From Server to Cloud > Data Mining > IoT > Machine Learning > Artificial
Intelligence > Web 3.0
Medicine
Generalised > Personalised > Genetic Splicing & Therapy > Implants > Cyborgs
Entertainment
Broadcast Media > 2-D Online Media > 2-D Gaming > > Immersive VR / AI

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1. ENTERTAINMENT THESIS
We believe that by 2030, it will be difficult to differentiate between
reality and an immersive gaming environment.
The difference is that the immersive gaming environment will be better:
• More comfortable
• Ability to fully control environment
• Ability to fully imagine environment
• Ability to re-create self
• Ability to self-validate
Together with purely human-software interface as well as social gaming
(clans), there may be little to attract large segments of the affluent
population to the ”real world”.

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ENTERTAINMENT NOW
From 8K screens+ To partial immersive reality
using limited sensor inputs

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ENTERTAINMENT FUTURE
To Full Immersive / Virtual Reality:
Facial & Voice Recognition;
Augmented & VR;
Haptic Controls & Feedback;
Gesture Recognition;
AI Rendering & Scenarios

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ENTERTAINMENT & ADDICTION: HOW IT WORKS
https://sitn.hms.harva
rd.edu/flash/2018/dop
amine-smartphones-
battle-time/

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ENTERTAINMENT & ADDICTION
https://www.addictioncenter.com/drugs/social-media-
addiction/
https://americanaddictioncenters.org/video-gaming-addiction
Entertainment is already addictive: future tech will make thousands of times more addictive

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ENTERTAINMENT THESIS: REGULATION (WILL FAIL)
The natural response of
families and governments
will be to attempt to
regulate gaming.
If we regulate crack
cocaine, why not regulate
something similarly as
biochemically addictive?
https://www.lexology.com/libr
ary/detail.aspx?g=117a58f4-
8809-493e-8836-
dc78a3539a1d

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ENTERTAINMENT THESIS: EDUCATION (WILL FAIL)
It has become fashionable to talk
about the gamification of education,
or using gamification to nudge
learning outcomes.
I believe it is more appropriate to
talk about the looming failure of
education.
Can we really educate well-rounded
citizens in an age of instant
gratification and unchecked
immorality?
Can we educate future minds given
that the biology of these minds has
changed?
https://edtechreview.in/trends-
insights/insights/2293-gamification-of-
education

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Religion …
is the opium of the
masses.

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2. LABOUR - ROBOTICS - DATA THESIS
We believe that by 2030, over 50% of labour professions seen today in
industrialised economies will have been replaced by a mix of robots (or
wider automation) and AI.
In most cases, the capability already exists, but neither regulatory
systems nor human society are ready to accept it.
By 2040, we will be at the level where human society will have
accepted robotic replacement even in many advanced professions.

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2. LABOUR
ROBOTS
THAT SERVE
COBOTS

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ROBOTS
THAT DANCE
https://www.youtube.c
om/watch?v=fn3KWM
1kuAw

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ROBOTS
AT BASEBALL
https://www.youtube.c
om/watch?v=FHkVNLI
9qFk

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ROBOTS THAT COOK
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mcdonald
s-tests-robot-fryers-and-voice-
activated-drive-throughs-11561060920

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ROBOTS
THAT
DELIVER
https://www.bbc.com/ne
ws/technology-
51409031

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ROBOTS
THAT KILL
https://www.youtube.c
om/watch?v=uXGj1kZ
nFEg

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ROBOTS THAT KILL
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201130-turkey-azerbaijan-drone-
success-should-worry-europe-says-european-council-analyst/

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ROBOTS THAT THINK
https://www.wired.com/2016/03/googles
-ai-wins-fifth-final-game-go-genius-lee-
sedol/?redirectURL=https%3A%2F%2F
www.wired.com%2F2016%2F03%2Fgo
ogles-ai-wins-fifth-final-game-go-genius-
lee-sedol%2F

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ROBOTS, AI & HUMAN LABOUR
By 2030
1. Most agrifood value chain professions will
have been replaced by IoT, robots and big
data. This extends from automated crop
planting and harvesting to flipping burgers
at McDonald’s.
2. 90% of the lower value-added work of
accountants, lawyers, consultants,
architects and software developers will
have been replaced by AI.
3. 50% of lower-value work in careers such as
nursing, elderly care, transport or military
will have been replaced by robots.
By 2040
1. Robots and AI will increasingly take over
advanced professions on the basis of
higher accuracy and better cost / outcome
ratios. For example, we predict that the first
legal trials will be done by AI and settled
within 5 minutes. Only if plaintiff or
defendant demand a human judge or jury
will that option be provided-at extra cost.
2. Most elderly care, nursing and medical
functions will be covered by personal
robots, including operations.
3. Most wars will be fought by robots.

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3. HEALTH: THESIS
By 2030 – 2050, we will have developed the ability to:
1. Increase standard human life to 130-150 years of age through a variety of
interventions
2. Self-select “positive” genetic traits (while also curing genetic diseases);
3. Provide preventative “treatment” of diseases based on statistical analysis and
genetic mapping, as well as preventative immunotherapy through engineering
super-immune cells;
4. Provide continual health monitoring using wearables and implants;
5. Provide replacement body parts and organ systems using printed and
engineered parts.

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GENE THERAPY
We are already using gene therapy on a limited
basis to:
• Replace missing or defective genes;
• Deliver genes that speed the destruction
of cancer cells;
• Supply genes that cause cancer cells to
revert back to normal cells;
• Deliver bacterial or viral genes as a form of
vaccination;
• Provide genes that promote or impede the
growth of new tissue; and;
• Deliver genes that stimulate the healing of
damaged tissue.
This technology is growing rapidly
and we can now envision:
• 100% genetically-personalised
therapies; (BioNTech, one of the
COVID vaccine partners, is heavily
invested here);
• Preventive treatments based on a
statistical estimates of diseases
expressing themselves (i.e.
without symptoms);
• Genetically engineering immune
cells, and deploying them.

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GENE THERAPY
Over the next 20-30 years,
we will push the boundaries
of gene therapy in ways
which:
a. Massively test the
limits of regulatory
protection;
b. Increase the remit of
therapies as well as
their effectiveness;
c. Move from critical and
life-threatening
treatments to
increasingly optional
treatments.
http://www.crisprtx.com/gene-editing/crispr-cas9

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-chinese-scientist-broke-the-rules-to-create-the-first-gene-edited-babies-11557506697

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FROM WEARABLES TO IMPLANTS
Apart from pacemakers, our present
technology is mainly measurement-
based and is wearable.
Implants will inlcude micro-dosimeters enabling
dosages to be automatically regulated
Nanomolecules will continually circulate in our
circulatory system, providing real-time
measurements and in some cases repair
Medical technology (such as stents) will become
“smart”, providing for on-board measurement and
alarms
Computer-brain interfaces may extend beyond
damage repair to provide super-critical data
functioning

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BRAINGATE PROGRAMME https://www.braingate.org

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NEURALINK START-UP https://neuralink.com

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NEURALINK https://www.braingate.org
https://www.bbc.com/n
ews/world-us-canada-
53956683

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UTOPIA 2040

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WHY UTOPIA?
We will expand the human lifespan
We will eradicate preventable diseases
We can engineer new food crops to feed a hungry planet
We will have the most advanced technology ever
We can use robots to take care of our most poor and vulnerable
We can harness technology to drive societal advances
We can end the drudge of human labour
We could save our environment – and our planet

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THE STAR-TREK FUTURE

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DYSTOPIA 2040

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WHY DYSTOPIA?
Because technological gains are not spread uniformly across the planet or any
single country. Gains are concentrated at the top (Google, Amazon, Apple,
Microsoft, etc) and society has grown increasingly unequal.
Because at least 50% of employment will be replaced by automation and AI. These
jobs will never be replaced. And this occurs while world population rises from 7.8
billion in 2021 to 9.7 billion in 2050.
National governments are unable to mediate between economic growth and
innovation on the one hand, and inequality and poverty on the other. They cannot
regulate most financial sectors today: there is no sign they are aware of what the
future is bringing.
The rich will grow not only richer, but tinkering with the human genome will change
the very definition of what it means to be human.

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THE BLADE RUNNER FUTURE

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EMERGING QUESTIONS
China is rolling out a national social credit system. This integrates continual monitoring
of individual activity, and generates a social credit score. This is simultaneously a
means of control, and reward. Other governments have outsourced credit scoring to
the private sector. Where does this end?
The current macro consensus is that low taxes and low government are needed to
attract investment. Yet since 1980, countries as diverse as the United States, Greece
and Cyprus have seen steadily rising debt and deficits, as well as stable or variable
poverty levels. What would be needed to make a government fit for purpose in 2030?
In 2040?
Experiments with Universal Basic Income are essentially being heralded as a means
of dealing with tech-driven unemployment. Can this be afforded? Can a society afford
to have 30-50% of its population on similar schemes?
Does anyone really believe that the current (and future) tech markets constitute
examples of functioning competition? How does one deal with tech monopolies?

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EMERGING QUESTIONS (2)
Our macroeconomic systems, and especially our pension systems, have been
engineered for 8-10 working people to every retiree and a life expectancy below 70.
What happens when we have 2 workers for every retiree, an average life
expectancy of 90, and an employment rate at 50% of the total population?
Democracy is vulnerable to fake news and unscrupulous politicians. Politics is
perhaps the only profession where one can openly lie without consequence. At
which point must the democratic franchise be restricted to prequalified voters? If
such a solution is not available, how else can we prevent the recurring disasters
democratic elections have been bringing?
What happens if wars are no longer fought by humans? Who wins?
What happens if more and more rich families genetically engineer their children?
What happens more and more rich families live superhumanly longer lives?

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PHILIP AMMERMAN
Philip studied at Princeton University, Cornell University, School of Industrial and Labour
Relations, and Oxford University, Said Business School. He began his career with Kienbaum
and Partner in New York and Dusseldorf in 1991, working on large-scale strategic
organisational development projects.
In September 1995, he co-founded Navigator with two partners. Since then, he has
implemented over 280 projects in 45 countries. Since 1995, Navigator has advised
companies and governments on digital transformation, investment-led growth and
restructuring. Over € 6 billion in completed investment projects have been delivered.
Since 2010, Philip has led the Navigator Entrepreneurship Charter, a commitment to support
1 start-up or social entrepreneur between 2010 and 2020. In this capacity, Philip acts as an
early-stage angel investor and business mentor. This commitment has been extended to
2030.
In February 2018, Philip was appointed as Team Coordinator for Greece for the European
Bank for Reconstruction & Development (EBRD), and implemented 2 international advisory
projects for innovative firms in Greece.
Philip acts as regional portfolio manager for Brookstreet Equity Partners, a private equity
fund investing in innovative Greek enterprises. http://www.brookstreetequity.com/
He is a non-executive Board Member for Redfin Capital, an asset management firm. He is an
evaluator for the European Commission’s Horizon programme, and advises a range of
private equity, venture capital and investment banks world wide.
Contact Information
Email: info@navigator-consulting.com
www.navigator-consulting.com
LinkedIn: philipammerman