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The 10% or the 90%?

             Bill Vorley
Seas of Change: What works when scaling
       inclusive agri-food markets?
             11-13 April 2012
             The Netherlands
Harvest time.. Projects 2002-12 on market
   governance and inclusive business
• Modernisation of domestic markets in emerging and
  developing economies
  Regoverning Markets programme 2002-7 (global research consortium; focus on domestic markets)

• Linking small-scale producers to modern food
  business (exports)
  Food Lab New Business Models for Sustainable Trading Relationships, 2008-12

• Producer agency in globalised markets
  Hivos-IIED Knowledge Programme Small Producer Agency in the Globalised Market (with global learning
  network) 2009-12

• Environmental and social risk management in supply
  chains
  IFC Good Practice Manual: Assessment and Management of the Environmental and Social Risks in Agro-
  Commodity Supply Chains (with Proforest) 2011-12

• Public policy as shaper of investments and markets
  Oxfam-IIED project Policy options for agricultural investments and governance of markets in support of
  small-scale agriculture 2011-12
Policy priorities: dealing with reality
• The majority of small-scale producers are not formally
  organised in the market
• The informal market remains the most important for the
  majority of small-scale producers
• Many modernizing agrifood markets still have their feet in
  informality
• ‘Modern’ markets are not always the best option for
  producers
• Much producer organisation in modern markets is driven by
  the food chain, not by producers
• The largest number of the rural poor are in countries with
  rapidly transforming economies
• Food safety and risk management is and will be the no. 1
  driver of formalisation and rural differentiation
• Risk management is pushing in the opposite direction than
  ‘inclusive’ business
• There are good reasons to work with the top 10-20 % of
  smallholders
Many modernizing agrifood markets still have their feet in
                informality (Huang et al.)
  Example of China: Farmers’ cucumber market channels, Shandong, 2006

                                                 11%    Small brokers


                            Small brokers        6%      Wholesalers
                 16%

                                                 1%
                                                       Modern channels
                 1%          Processors
    Farmers
                 0.6%
                         Specialised suppliers

                 0.02%      Supermarkets         66%    Small brokers

                 80%                             12%
                             Wholesalers                 Wholesalers

                                                 2%
                                                       Modern channels

           Trade is dominated by small brokers and wholesalers
Access for small-scale farmers to tomato markets in
Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces, S Africa, 2007
                      Chikazunga et al.


                63%         Small
                       brokers/hawkers
                                                                         32%
                14%                                                            Informal trade
                        Local market




                                          Tshwane Fresh Produce Market
  Small-scale                                                            30%
                                                                                  Retailers
   farmers      8%
                       Agro-processors
                                                                         6%     Processors +
                4%
                        Supermarkets                                           contract buyers
                                                                         10%
                                                                                Chain stores
                11%      Wholesale
                          market
                                                                         21%    Wholesalers
Food safety is no. 1 driver of formalisation and rural
 differentiation: Policy directives to move the small
  backyard farmers into concentrated production
   complexes where the marketing is centralized

Share of written contracts for dairy farmers who sold milk by
channels in Greater Beijing in 2004, 2008 and 2009 (%).
                                          2004           2008   2009
Without contracts                          89             91     32
With contracts                             11             9      68
 Direct consumer                            0             0      0
 Mobile brokers                             1             4      0
 Milk stations                             10             4      0
 Dairy complexes                            0             2      68
Source: Luan et al, 2011
Priority of inclusive formalisation
Chinese industry is moving to integrate SCM to ensure
             SC integrity and food safety
• “Small farms cannot meet the rapid growth of demand in
  China”. Following the frequent food safety incidents in China,
  the big companies are “taking the lead with fully integrated
  value chains” around international GAP standards.”.. “This
  model lowers costs, raises production and competitiveness,
  reduces price fluctuations and raises food safety. Wan Zaotian,
  VP of Cofco addressing the IDH Congress in Amsterdam December 2011
Scale and inclusiveness requires differentiated
         approaches to rural worlds
         Private sector priorities   Policy Priorities

   RW 1 Inclusive business           Support vertical trading relationships in value
        models in value chains       chains, such as enforcement of contracts, payment
                                     terms
   RW 2 Horizontal sector wide       Horizontal improvement in the performance and
        and territorial              inclusiveness of a whole sector
        approaches (including        Upgrading the informal sector, especially food
        PPPs)                        safety
        Attention to unorganised     Process of inclusive formalisation
        producers                    Competitive wholesale sector, diversity of markets
                                     Break up cartels
                                     Quotas for small/family farms
                                     Selective use of trade measures
                                     Embed core elements of sustainability standards
                                     into legislation
   RW3   Labour standards            Labour legislation and implementation, especially
                                     as relates to women.
Policies to support rather than harass the informal
                             sector
                      Hooton and Omore (ILRI), 2007
•   Alternative models of dairy development, relevant
    to local conditions -- bridge the informal-formal
    divide
•   Traditional milk markets from ~800,000 small-scale
    dairy farmers through small-scale milk vendors
    supply > 85% of the market
•   Previous government policies unsupportive /harass
    farmers, traders and consumers who make up
    these channels . SSMVs could not acquire licences
    or access training in milk handling
•   New Dairy Policy -- acknowledges the role of
    SSMVs in the development of the sector, including
    development of low cost appropriate technologies,
    training on safe milk handling, improve processing
    standards in the informal sector, and provision of
    incentives and establishment of a supportive
    certification system.
Modern coordinated markets are not always the
      best option for many smallholders
• Modern sector is not necessarily ‘high value’
   – Example: supermarkets in Nicaragua




                                Source: Jennifer Wiegel

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Scaling inclusive agri food markets: The 10% or the 90% ?

  • 1. The 10% or the 90%? Bill Vorley Seas of Change: What works when scaling inclusive agri-food markets? 11-13 April 2012 The Netherlands
  • 2. Harvest time.. Projects 2002-12 on market governance and inclusive business • Modernisation of domestic markets in emerging and developing economies Regoverning Markets programme 2002-7 (global research consortium; focus on domestic markets) • Linking small-scale producers to modern food business (exports) Food Lab New Business Models for Sustainable Trading Relationships, 2008-12 • Producer agency in globalised markets Hivos-IIED Knowledge Programme Small Producer Agency in the Globalised Market (with global learning network) 2009-12 • Environmental and social risk management in supply chains IFC Good Practice Manual: Assessment and Management of the Environmental and Social Risks in Agro- Commodity Supply Chains (with Proforest) 2011-12 • Public policy as shaper of investments and markets Oxfam-IIED project Policy options for agricultural investments and governance of markets in support of small-scale agriculture 2011-12
  • 3. Policy priorities: dealing with reality • The majority of small-scale producers are not formally organised in the market • The informal market remains the most important for the majority of small-scale producers • Many modernizing agrifood markets still have their feet in informality • ‘Modern’ markets are not always the best option for producers • Much producer organisation in modern markets is driven by the food chain, not by producers • The largest number of the rural poor are in countries with rapidly transforming economies • Food safety and risk management is and will be the no. 1 driver of formalisation and rural differentiation • Risk management is pushing in the opposite direction than ‘inclusive’ business • There are good reasons to work with the top 10-20 % of smallholders
  • 4. Many modernizing agrifood markets still have their feet in informality (Huang et al.) Example of China: Farmers’ cucumber market channels, Shandong, 2006 11% Small brokers Small brokers 6% Wholesalers 16% 1% Modern channels 1% Processors Farmers 0.6% Specialised suppliers 0.02% Supermarkets 66% Small brokers 80% 12% Wholesalers Wholesalers 2% Modern channels Trade is dominated by small brokers and wholesalers
  • 5. Access for small-scale farmers to tomato markets in Limpopo and Mpumalanga Provinces, S Africa, 2007 Chikazunga et al. 63% Small brokers/hawkers 32% 14% Informal trade Local market Tshwane Fresh Produce Market Small-scale 30% Retailers farmers 8% Agro-processors 6% Processors + 4% Supermarkets contract buyers 10% Chain stores 11% Wholesale market 21% Wholesalers
  • 6. Food safety is no. 1 driver of formalisation and rural differentiation: Policy directives to move the small backyard farmers into concentrated production complexes where the marketing is centralized Share of written contracts for dairy farmers who sold milk by channels in Greater Beijing in 2004, 2008 and 2009 (%). 2004 2008 2009 Without contracts 89 91 32 With contracts 11 9 68 Direct consumer 0 0 0 Mobile brokers 1 4 0 Milk stations 10 4 0 Dairy complexes 0 2 68 Source: Luan et al, 2011
  • 7. Priority of inclusive formalisation Chinese industry is moving to integrate SCM to ensure SC integrity and food safety • “Small farms cannot meet the rapid growth of demand in China”. Following the frequent food safety incidents in China, the big companies are “taking the lead with fully integrated value chains” around international GAP standards.”.. “This model lowers costs, raises production and competitiveness, reduces price fluctuations and raises food safety. Wan Zaotian, VP of Cofco addressing the IDH Congress in Amsterdam December 2011
  • 8. Scale and inclusiveness requires differentiated approaches to rural worlds Private sector priorities Policy Priorities RW 1 Inclusive business Support vertical trading relationships in value models in value chains chains, such as enforcement of contracts, payment terms RW 2 Horizontal sector wide Horizontal improvement in the performance and and territorial inclusiveness of a whole sector approaches (including Upgrading the informal sector, especially food PPPs) safety Attention to unorganised Process of inclusive formalisation producers Competitive wholesale sector, diversity of markets Break up cartels Quotas for small/family farms Selective use of trade measures Embed core elements of sustainability standards into legislation RW3 Labour standards Labour legislation and implementation, especially as relates to women.
  • 9. Policies to support rather than harass the informal sector Hooton and Omore (ILRI), 2007 • Alternative models of dairy development, relevant to local conditions -- bridge the informal-formal divide • Traditional milk markets from ~800,000 small-scale dairy farmers through small-scale milk vendors supply > 85% of the market • Previous government policies unsupportive /harass farmers, traders and consumers who make up these channels . SSMVs could not acquire licences or access training in milk handling • New Dairy Policy -- acknowledges the role of SSMVs in the development of the sector, including development of low cost appropriate technologies, training on safe milk handling, improve processing standards in the informal sector, and provision of incentives and establishment of a supportive certification system.
  • 10.
  • 11. Modern coordinated markets are not always the best option for many smallholders • Modern sector is not necessarily ‘high value’ – Example: supermarkets in Nicaragua Source: Jennifer Wiegel