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Use of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs That
Elevate Cardiovascular Risk: An Examination of Sales and
Essential Medicines Lists in Low-, Middle-, and High-
Income Countries
Patricia McGettigan1
, David Henry2,3,4
*
1 William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, United Kingdom, 2 Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto,
Canada, 3 Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 4 School of Medicine and Public Health, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia
Abstract
Background: Certain non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (e.g., rofecoxib [Vioxx]) increase the risk of heart attack
and stroke and should be avoided in patients at high risk of cardiovascular events. Rates of cardiovascular disease are high
and rising in many low- and middle-income countries. We studied the extent to which evidence on cardiovascular risk with
NSAIDs has translated into guidance and sales in 15 countries.
Methods and Findings: Data on the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular events with individual NSAIDs were derived from
meta-analyses of randomised trials and controlled observational studies. Listing of individual NSAIDs on Essential Medicines
Lists (EMLs) was obtained from the World Health Organization. NSAID sales or prescription data for 15 low-, middle-, and
high-income countries were obtained from Intercontinental Medical Statistics Health (IMS Health) or national prescription
pricing audit (in the case of England and Canada). Three drugs (rofecoxib, diclofenac, etoricoxib) ranked consistently highest
in terms of cardiovascular risk compared with nonuse. Naproxen was associated with a low risk. Diclofenac was listed on 74
national EMLs, naproxen on just 27. Rofecoxib use was not documented in any country. Diclofenac and etoricoxib
accounted for one-third of total NSAID usage across the 15 countries (median 33.2%, range 14.7–58.7%). This proportion did
not vary between low- and high-income countries. Diclofenac was by far the most commonly used NSAID, with a market
share close to that of the next three most popular drugs combined. Naproxen had an average market share of less than
10%.
Conclusions: Listing of NSAIDs on national EMLs should take account of cardiovascular risk, with preference given to low
risk drugs. Diclofenac has a risk very similar to rofecoxib, which was withdrawn from worldwide markets owing to
cardiovascular toxicity. Diclofenac should be removed from EMLs.
Please see later in the article for the Editors’ Summary.
Citation: McGettigan P, Henry D (2013) Use of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs That Elevate Cardiovascular Risk: An Examination of Sales and Essential
Medicines Lists in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries. PLoS Med 10(2): e1001388. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388
Academic Editor: Fiona Mary Turnbull, The George Institute for Global Health, Australia
Received September 10, 2012; Accepted January 3, 2013; Published February 12, 2013
Copyright: ß 2013 McGettigan, Henry. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Funding: The William Harvey Research Institute and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences assisted with the purchase of data for this study. No external
funding was received. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Abbreviations: EML, Essential Medicines List; NSAID, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug; RR, relative risk; WHO, World Health Organization.
* E-mail: david.henry@ices.on.ca
PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 1 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
Introduction
Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are among the
most widely used of therapeutic agents. Taken singly or in
combination with other classes of drug, they relieve symptoms
across multiple clinical indications, including short and long term
pain states and a range of musculoskeletal disorders.
Serious adverse effects of NSAIDs are well understood, being
related largely to their underlying mechanisms of action [1].
Extensive pharmaco-epidemiological studies and meta-analyses
have documented hazards, in particular serious gastrointestinal
[2,3] and cardiovascular complications [4–9]. These studies have
enabled some discrimination in risk between individual members
of this large class of drugs, providing guidance on selection
according to patient risk profiles [10]. Gastrointestinal damage can
be reduced by co-prescription of proton pump inhibitors [11]. In
contrast, there is no convincing evidence that low dose aspirin
mitigates the cardiovascular risk of NSAIDs [12,13]. Faced with
patients at high risk of cardiovascular events, prescribers have a
choice of advising against use of a NSAID or recommending a
drug with a lower risk. This dilemma is not limited to doctors
working in high-income countries. With the widespread use of
NSAIDs and a steep rise in cardiovascular disease, it is a particular
concern in low- and middle-income countries [14].
Precise summary information on cardiovascular risk with
NSAIDs has been available since 2006 and current evidence
suggests that there are significant differences between commonly
used members of the class [4–9,13]. There are strong reasons for
choosing low risk NSAIDs in those at high risk of cardiovascular
events. Our interest here is the extent to which this is reflected in
Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs) and in data on sales across
several countries.
Methods
Estimating Cardiovascular Risk with Individual Drugs
We ranked NSAIDs by cardiovascular risk (with non-use as
reference) using relative risk (RR) values derived from published
meta-analyses of randomised trials and controlled observational
studies that reported RR for three or more individual drugs [4–9].
Data on pairwise comparisons of individual agents, representing
the least confounded comparisons of RR, were obtained from the
most recent meta-analysis [9].
Essential Medicines Lists
Essential medicines are those satisfying the priority health care
needs of the population. They are selected with due regard
to public health relevance, evidence on efficacy and safety, and
comparative cost-effectiveness. We determined the NSAIDs
recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in its
Model List of Essential Medicines [15], and by individual
countries with published national EMLs [16]. National EMLs
are informed by the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and
modified to reflect national health care priorities [17]. For the
countries with published EMLs, we compared the information on
cardiovascular risk with individual NSAIDs and their inclusion in
the country EML.
Measuring Sales of NSAIDs in Different Countries
Intercontinental Medical Statistics Health (IMS Health) tracks
over 80% of global pharmaceutical use by sampling individual
country sales through multiple supply routes to retail pharmacies
and hospitals (http://www.imshealth.com/portal/site/ims/).
These sales include both indirect sales from wholesalers and
direct sales from manufacturers. In some countries, hospital audits
are based on data sourced from hospital pharmacies. In each
country, the sampling data are projected to estimate sales for the
whole country. We purchased data from IMS Health on the mass
of individual NSAIDs sold in 2011 in 13 countries in the South
Asian, Southeast Asian, and Asian Pacific regions (Multinational
Integrated Data Analysis, MIDAS). The countries included in the
analyses were: Australia, Bangladesh, China, China (Hong Kong),
Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singa-
pore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The data reflected retail
pharmacy and hospital sales in all countries except Bangladesh
and Pakistan (retail pharmacy sales) and China (hospital sales).
Defined daily doses (DDD), established by the WHO Collaborat-
ing Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology (WHOCC), permit
comparisons of use between different drugs and across different
countries [18]. We calculated the numbers of DDD of individual
NSAIDs for each country using the values published by the
WHOCC [18].
Data on NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the community in
England during 2011 were obtained from public prescription cost
analysis reports [19]. For Canada, we purchased data on NSAID
prescriptions dispensed in the community during 2011 from IMS
Brogan (IMS Brogan Inc., Ottawa, Canada). We did not have
sufficient information to convert prescription data to DDD, but
assumed that the proportionality of market shares for individual
NSAIDs calculated from prescriptions would be equivalent to that
derived from sales data.
Results
Cardiovascular Risk with Individual NSAIDs
The meta-analyses were fairly constant in their findings
(Table 1). The NSAIDs that had consistently higher cardiovascular
risks (RRs) were rofecoxib, etoricoxib, and diclofenac. All were
found to have a higher RR than naproxen in pairwise analyses in
the most recent published meta-analysis [9]. Indometacin and
meloxicam had moderately elevated RR values that were
significantly greater than naproxen [9]. Etodolac was found to
have an elevated risk but in pairwise analysis, it did not have a
statistically significantly higher RR than naproxen [9]. Celecoxib
and ibuprofen were associated with elevated RR values when used
in clinical trials in high doses but not in the lower doses typically
used in the community. We judged naproxen to have the lowest
risk. Five of the six meta-analyses found it to be risk-neutral
(Table 1). We classified rofecoxib, etoricoxib, and diclofenac as
‘‘high risk’’ drugs for the purpose of analysis. This is conservative
in that other NSAIDs could also be considered high risk.
EML Inclusions
The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines includes three
drugs, paracetamol, acetyl salicylic acid (aspirin), and ibuprofen, in
the category ‘‘non-opioids and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory
medicines.’’ Of 100 countries with EMLs published on the WHO
website, most included fewer than six agents in this class. The
NSAIDs most commonly recommended were: aspirin (88 coun-
tries), ibuprofen (90 countries), diclofenac (74 countries), indome-
tacin (56 countries), and naproxen (27 countries) (Table S2).
Significantly, 51 of the countries that listed diclofenac did not list
naproxen. Selective cyclooxygenase-2 (cox-2) inhibitors were
included on the EMLs of 12 countries. Of 86 EMLs published
or updated since 2007, diclofenac was listed on 74, naproxen on
27.
An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries
PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 2 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
Patterns of NSAID Use
Figure 1 presents the market shares of the nine most widely sold
NSAIDs in 15 countries. The analyses are presented in Table 2. Full
data are provided in Table S1. Diclofenac was the most popular
NSAID, with a market share almost equal to that of the next three
most popular NSAIDs combined (ibuprofen, mefenamic acid,
naproxen). There was no documented use of rofecoxib. Etoricoxib
was commonly sold in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and
Singapore. ‘‘High risk’’ NSAIDs (diclofenac and exoricoxib)
comprised about one-third of the market across the 15 countries
(median 33.2%, range 14.7–58.7%), and this proportion did not
differ between high- and low-income states (Table 2).
Discussion
NSAIDs with a high risk of cardiovascular complications are
widely used. Diclofenac and etoricoxib together account for
approximately one-third of all sales of NSAIDs in the 15 countries
included in our analysis. There was no difference between high-
and low-income countries. Diclofenac was by far the most popular
NSAID, despite having an RR identical to rofecoxib [9], which
was withdrawn from world markets 8 years ago owing to
cardiovascular toxicity [20]. The information on cardiovascular
risk associated with diclofenac has been available to regulators,
writers of guidelines and essential medicines lists, and prescribers
for at least 5 years [4–9]. Calls have been made for its withdrawal
[21]. High levels of sales as recently as 2011 suggest that none of
this information has resulted in effective action. There has been a
slow decline in prescription numbers in England, Australia, and
Canada since 2006 (Figure S1), but it remains popular in all three
countries, particularly in England where it is the single most-
prescribed NSAID (Table S1). While the popularity of diclofenac
in high-income countries is well known, to our knowledge this is
the first report that highlights the risks associated with its dominant
market position in low- and middle-income countries.
Etoricoxib is the other high risk NSAID that features in this
study. While there is limited information on its cardiovascular risk,
an updated meta-analysis published by us in 2011 found a
doubling of cardiovascular risk compared with non-use [9]. It
was significantly more harmful than ibuprofen and naproxen in
pairwise comparisons. In a large head-to-head randomised clinical
trial, it had an identical cardiovascular risk to diclofenac [22]. In
the current study, etoricoxib accounted for 28% of NSAID sales
in Singapore, and 14% in Bangladesh, Hong Kong, and Malaysia.
In England, it is prescribed as often as celecoxib (Table S1), but it
is not licensed in North America.
Based on meta-analyses of randomised and non-randomised
studies, the greatest amount of evidence supports naproxen as the
safest choice to minimize cardiovascular risk. However, it was
listed in only 27 out of 86 national EMLs published or updated
since 2007. In contrast, diclofenac was included on 74 of these
EMLs. On average, diclofenac was used three times as frequently
as naproxen. In other words, evidence on the relative cardiovas-
cular safety of this drug has failed to translate into appropriate
selection for EMLs or usage. The WHO Model List of Essential
Medicines provides limited guidance for selection of NSAIDs on
EMLs [15]. It includes aspirin and ibuprofen, but offers no advice
on their safety or cost-effectiveness relative to each other or to
other NSAIDs.
There are a number of limitations to this work. Most obviously, we
do not have information on the risk profiles of patients taking
NSAIDs. However, the large and consistent volumes of use of high
risk NSAIDs make it very likely that these drugs are being taken by
substantial numbers of individuals at high risk of serious cardiovas-
cular events. We relied on sales data for 13 countries and prescription
sales for England and Canada. Sales data provide the most com-
prehensive estimates capturing non-prescription and hospital use in
addition to community prescribing, although coverage of all sectors
was variable in our study. We could not analyse prevalence of use or
dosage, and while it is possible that duration of treatment varies
between individual drugs, we don’t think this is likely to distort
greatly the patterns we have observed in the overall sales data.
Importantly, the increase in cardiovascular risk has been reported
very early in the course of diclofenac treatment [9,21].
Table 1. Summary of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular events with individual NSAIDs (versus non-use).
NSAID Serious Cardiovascular Events; RR (95% CI) Versus Non-use of NSAIDs
Observational Studies (Outcomes) Randomised Studies (Outcomes)
Hernandez-Diaz
et al., 2006 [4]
(AMI)
Singh et al.,
2006 [5]
(AMI)
McGettigan and
Henry, 2006 [6]
(CV Events)
McGettigan and
Henry, 2011 [9]
(CV Events)
Trelle et al.,
2011 [7] (APTC
Composite Outcomes)
Kearney et al.,
2006 [8]
(CV Events)
Etoricoxib nr nr nr 2.05 (1.45–2.88) 1.53 (0.74–3.17) nr
Etodolac nr nr nr 1.55 (1.28–1.87) nr nr
Rofecoxib 1.27 (1.12–1.44) nr 1.35 (1.15–1.59) 1.45 (1.33–1.59) 1.44 (1.00–1.99) 1.42 (1.13–1.78)
(with celecoxib)a
Diclofenac 1.39 (1.18–1.64) 1.38 (1.22–1.57) 1.40 (1.16–1.70) 1.40 (1.27–1.55) 1.60 (0.85–2.99) 1.63 (1.12–2.37)
Indometacin nr nr 1.30 (1.07–1.60) 1.30 (1.19–1.41) nr nr
Meloxicam nr nr 1.25 (1.00–1.55) 1.20 (1.07–1.33) nr nr
Ibuprofen 1.01 (0.89–1.15) 1.11 (1.06–1.17) 1.07 (0.97–1.18) 1.18 (1.11–1.25) 2.26 (1.11–4.89) 1.51 (0.96–2.37)
Celecoxib 0.97 (0.86–1.08) nr 1.06 (0.91–1.23) 1.17 (1.08–1.27) 1.43 (0.94–2.16) 1.42 (1.13–1.78)
(with rofecoxib)a
Naproxen 0.98 (0.87–1.11) 0.99 (0.88–1.11) 0.97 (0.87–1.07) 1.09 (1.02–1.16) 1.22 (0.78–1.93) 0.92 (0.67–1.26)
Piroxicam nr nr 1.06 (0.70–1.59) 1.08 (0.91–1.30) nr nr
a
celecoxib and rofecoxib analysed together.
AMI, acute myocardial infarction; APTC, Anti-Platelet Trialists Collaboration; CV, cardiovascular; nr, not reported.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.t001
An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries
PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 3 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
The findings here have significant implications for public health.
For instance, in China the age- and sex-standardised death rate
from cardiovascular disease is estimated to be 312/100,000 for
males and 260/100,000 for females [23]. Diclofenac is the most
commonly used NSAID in hospitals in China. We assume com-
munity use follows a similar pattern. If it were taken by only 1% of
China’s population of approximately 1.3 billion annually, based
on the relative risk calculations from meta-analyses it could
cause 14,000 additional unintended deaths. These deaths are
preventable—lower risk NSAIDs, including naproxen and low-
dose ibuprofen, are widely available and are equally efficacious
[24,25]. Both are available as generic products.
Figure 1. Individual NSAID defined daily doses (DDD) expressed as a percentage of total NSAID DDD sales in each country in 2011.
Data reflect retail pharmacy and hospital sales in all countries except Bangladesh and Pakistan [retail pharmacy sales], China [hospital sales], and
England and Canada [prescription sales only].
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.g001
Table 2. Analysis of use of selected NSAIDs in 15 countries.
NSAID Individual NSAID Use Expressed as Percent of Total NSAID Sales in All Countries in 2011
Median Maximum Minimum
Diclofenac 27.80% 43.40% 8.30%
Ibuprofen 11.00% 26.60% 3.30%
Naproxen 9.40% 28.20% 0.00%
Mefenamic Acid 9.10% 34.70% 0.00%
Celecoxib 7.20% 21.20% 0.20%
Meloxicam 3.60% 21.00% 0.30%
Piroxicam 3.10% 23.60% 0.00%
Etoricoxib 2.80% 27.60% 0.20%
Indometacin 3.67% 7.20% 0.00%
Ketoprofen 1.10% 9.50% 0.20%
High Risk NSAIDsa
33.20% 58.69% 14.65%
HMIC 31.10% 58.70% 15.80%
LMIC 37.30% 57.50% 14.70%
Percentage refers to proportion of total NSAID sales in all countries studied. HMIC (high-/high middle-income countries): Australia, China, China (Hong Kong), Malaysia,
New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, UK/England, Canada; LMIC (low-/low middle-income countries): Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam.
a
Diclofenac, etoricoxib.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.t002
An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries
PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 4 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
There is increasing regulatory concern about diclofenac. The
European Medicines Agency has just commenced (as of October
2012) a new review of its cardiovascular safety [26]. In low- and
middle-income countries, national EMLs are authoritative influ-
ences on drug choice, being used as the basis for procurement of
safe, cost-effective medicines for public reimbursement and to
guide local medicines production [17]. NSAID recommendations
on national EMLs should be based on the optimum balance of
benefit and harm and give preference to low risk drugs, in parti-
cular to ibuprofen and naproxen. Diclofenac has no advantage in
terms of gastrointestinal safety [11] and it has a clear cardiovas-
cular disadvantage [9]. Given the availability of safer alternatives,
diclofenac should be de-listed from national EMLs. There are
strong arguments to revoke its marketing authorisations globally.
Supporting Information
Figure S1 NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the com-
munity in England, Australia, and Canada. Data sources:
England, National Health Service Prescription Cost Analysis
Reports; publicly available up to and including 2011 (http://www.
ic.nhs.uk/pubs/prescostanalysis2011 Accessed 12November 2012);
Australia, Australian Statistics on Medicines Reports, publicly
available up to and including 2009 (http://www.health.gov.au/
internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/health-pbs-general-pubs-asm.
htm) (accessed 12 November 2012); Canada, data estimates of
prescription numbers dispensed annually, 2007–2011 inclusive, in the
community in Canada, purchased from Intercontinental Medical
Statistics (IMS), IMS Brogan, a unit of IMS Health, Toronto, Canada
(http://www.imshealth.com/portal/site/ims?CURRENT_LOCALE=
en_ca) (accessed 12 November 2012). Cox-2-selective, all
‘‘coxib’’ NSAIDs available each year in each country including
celecoxib, etoricoxib, lumiracoxib, rofecoxib, valdecoxib; non-
selective NSAIDs, all NSAIDs except Cox-2 selective (coxibs)
and meloxicam.
(TIF)
Table S1 Use of individual NSAIDs expressed as a
percentage of total NSAID use in each country in 2011.
Use is expressed as sales of defined daily doses (DDD, in
millions) for all countries except England and Canada
where it is expressed as millions of prescriptions
dispensed in the community.
(DOCX)
Table S2 NSAIDs listed on national Essential Medicines
Lists; World Health Organization (2012) Essential
Medicines Selection.
(XLSX)
Author Contributions
Conceived and designed the experiments: PMG DH. Analyzed the data:
PMG DH. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: PMG. Contributed to
the writing of the manuscript: PMG DH. ICMJE criteria for authorship
read and met: PMG DH. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions:
PMG DH.
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An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries
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Editors’ Summary
Background. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
(NSAIDs) are among the most widely used drugs. Aspirin,
the first NSAID, was developed in 1897 but there are now
many different NSAIDs. Some can be bought over-the-
counter but others are available only with prescription.
NSAIDs can help relieve short- and long-term pain, reduce
inflammation (redness and swelling), and reduce high fevers.
Common conditions that are treated with NSAIDs include
headaches, toothache, back ache, and arthritis. NSAIDs work
by stopping a class of enzymes called cyclo-oxygenases
(COXs) from making prostaglandins, some of which cause
pain and inflammation. Like all drugs, NSAIDs have some
unwanted side effects. Because certain prostaglandins
protect the stomach lining from the stomach acid that helps
to digest food, NSAID use can cause indigestion and
stomach ulcers (gastrointestinal complications). In addition,
NSAIDs increase the risk of heart attacks and stroke to
varying degrees and therefore should be avoided by people
at high risk of cardiovascular diseases—conditions that affect
the heart and/or blood vessels.
Why Was This Study Done? Different NSAIDs are
associated with different levels of cardiovascular risk.
Selective COX-2 inhibitors (e.g., rofecoxib, celecoxib, etor-
icoxib) generally have fewer stomach-related side effects
than non-selective COX inhibitors (e.g., naproxen, ibuprofen,
diclofenac). However, some NSAIDs (rofecoxib, diclofenac,
etoricoxib) are more likely to cause cardiovascular events
than others (e.g., naproxen). When doctors prescribe NSAIDs,
they need to consider the patient’s risk profile. Particularly
for patients with higher risk of cardiovascular events, a
doctor should either advise against NSAID use or recom-
mend one that has a relatively low cardiovascular risk.
Information on the cardiovascular risk associated with
different NSAIDs has been available for several years, but
have doctors changed their prescribing of NSAIDs based on
the information? This question is of particular concern in
low- and middle-income countries where cardiovascular
disease is increasingly common. In this study, the researchers
investigate the extent to which evidence on the cardiovas-
cular risk associated with different NSAIDs has translated into
guidance and sales in 15 low-, middle-, and high-income
countries.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers
derived data on the relative risk of cardiovascular events
associated with individual NSAIDs compared to non-use of
NSAIDs from published meta-analyses of randomized trials
and observational studies. They obtained information on the
NSAIDs recommended in 100 countries from national
Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs; essential medicines are
drugs that satisfy the priority health care needs of a
population). Finally, they obtained information on NSAID
sales for 13 countries in the South Asian, Southeast Asian,
and Asian Pacific regions and NSAID prescription data for
Canada and England. Rofecoxib, diclofenac, and etoricoxib
consistently increased cardiovascular risk compared with no
NSAIDs. All three had a higher relative risk of cardiovascular
events than naproxen in pairwise analyses. Naproxen was
associated with the lowest cardiovascular risk. No national
EMLs recommended rofecoxib, which was withdrawn from
world markets 8 years ago because of its cardiovascular risk.
Seventy-four national EMLs listed diclofenac, but only 27
EMLs listed naproxen. Diclofenac was the most commonly
used NSAID, with an average market share across the 15
countries of nearly 30%. By contrast, naproxen had an
average market share of less than 10%. Finally, across both
high- and low-/middle-income countries, diclofenac and
etoricoxib accounted for one-third of total NSAID usage.
What Do These Findings Mean? These findings show
that NSAIDs with higher risk of cardiovascular events are
widely used in low-/middle- as well as high-income
countries. Diclofenac is the most popular NSAID, despite its
higher relative risk of cardiovascular events, which is similar
to that of rofecoxib. Diclofenac is also widely listed on EMLs
even though information on its higher cardiovascular risk has
been available since 2006. In contrast, naproxen, one of the
safest in relative terms of the NSAIDs examined, was among
the least popular and was listed on a minority of EMLs. Some
aspects of the study’s design may affect the accuracy of
these findings. For example, the researchers did not look at
the risk profiles of the patients actually taking NSAIDs.
However, given the volume of use of high-risk NSAIDS, it is
likely that these drugs are taken by many individuals at high
risk of cardiovascular events. Overall, these findings have
important implications for public health and, given the wide
availability of safer alternatives, the researchers suggest that
diclofenac should be removed from national EMLs and that
its marketing authorizations should be revoked globally.
Additional Information. Please access these Web sites via
the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/
10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.
N This study is further discussed in a PLOS Medicine
Perspective by K. Srinath Reddy and Ambuj Roy
N The UK National Health Service Choices website provides
detailed information on NSAIDS
N MedlinePlus provides information about aspirin, ibuprofen,
naproxen, and diclofenac; it also provides links to other
information about pain relievers (in English and Spanish)
N The American Heart Association has information on
cardiovascular disease; ‘‘Can Patients With Cardiovascular
Disease Take Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs?’’ is a
Cardiology Patient Page in the AHA journal Circulation
N The British Heart Foundation also provides information
about cardiovascular disease and has a factsheet on
NSAIDs and cardiovascular disease
N The World Health Organization has a fact sheet on
essential medicines; the WHO Model List of Essential
Medicines (in English and French), and national EMLs are
available
An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries
PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 6 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388

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Diclofenac

  • 1. Use of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs That Elevate Cardiovascular Risk: An Examination of Sales and Essential Medicines Lists in Low-, Middle-, and High- Income Countries Patricia McGettigan1 , David Henry2,3,4 * 1 William Harvey Research Institute, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, London, United Kingdom, 2 Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Canada, 3 Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada, 4 School of Medicine and Public Health, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia Abstract Background: Certain non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (e.g., rofecoxib [Vioxx]) increase the risk of heart attack and stroke and should be avoided in patients at high risk of cardiovascular events. Rates of cardiovascular disease are high and rising in many low- and middle-income countries. We studied the extent to which evidence on cardiovascular risk with NSAIDs has translated into guidance and sales in 15 countries. Methods and Findings: Data on the relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular events with individual NSAIDs were derived from meta-analyses of randomised trials and controlled observational studies. Listing of individual NSAIDs on Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs) was obtained from the World Health Organization. NSAID sales or prescription data for 15 low-, middle-, and high-income countries were obtained from Intercontinental Medical Statistics Health (IMS Health) or national prescription pricing audit (in the case of England and Canada). Three drugs (rofecoxib, diclofenac, etoricoxib) ranked consistently highest in terms of cardiovascular risk compared with nonuse. Naproxen was associated with a low risk. Diclofenac was listed on 74 national EMLs, naproxen on just 27. Rofecoxib use was not documented in any country. Diclofenac and etoricoxib accounted for one-third of total NSAID usage across the 15 countries (median 33.2%, range 14.7–58.7%). This proportion did not vary between low- and high-income countries. Diclofenac was by far the most commonly used NSAID, with a market share close to that of the next three most popular drugs combined. Naproxen had an average market share of less than 10%. Conclusions: Listing of NSAIDs on national EMLs should take account of cardiovascular risk, with preference given to low risk drugs. Diclofenac has a risk very similar to rofecoxib, which was withdrawn from worldwide markets owing to cardiovascular toxicity. Diclofenac should be removed from EMLs. Please see later in the article for the Editors’ Summary. Citation: McGettigan P, Henry D (2013) Use of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs That Elevate Cardiovascular Risk: An Examination of Sales and Essential Medicines Lists in Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries. PLoS Med 10(2): e1001388. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388 Academic Editor: Fiona Mary Turnbull, The George Institute for Global Health, Australia Received September 10, 2012; Accepted January 3, 2013; Published February 12, 2013 Copyright: ß 2013 McGettigan, Henry. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Funding: The William Harvey Research Institute and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences assisted with the purchase of data for this study. No external funding was received. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Abbreviations: EML, Essential Medicines List; NSAID, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug; RR, relative risk; WHO, World Health Organization. * E-mail: david.henry@ices.on.ca PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 1 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
  • 2. Introduction Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are among the most widely used of therapeutic agents. Taken singly or in combination with other classes of drug, they relieve symptoms across multiple clinical indications, including short and long term pain states and a range of musculoskeletal disorders. Serious adverse effects of NSAIDs are well understood, being related largely to their underlying mechanisms of action [1]. Extensive pharmaco-epidemiological studies and meta-analyses have documented hazards, in particular serious gastrointestinal [2,3] and cardiovascular complications [4–9]. These studies have enabled some discrimination in risk between individual members of this large class of drugs, providing guidance on selection according to patient risk profiles [10]. Gastrointestinal damage can be reduced by co-prescription of proton pump inhibitors [11]. In contrast, there is no convincing evidence that low dose aspirin mitigates the cardiovascular risk of NSAIDs [12,13]. Faced with patients at high risk of cardiovascular events, prescribers have a choice of advising against use of a NSAID or recommending a drug with a lower risk. This dilemma is not limited to doctors working in high-income countries. With the widespread use of NSAIDs and a steep rise in cardiovascular disease, it is a particular concern in low- and middle-income countries [14]. Precise summary information on cardiovascular risk with NSAIDs has been available since 2006 and current evidence suggests that there are significant differences between commonly used members of the class [4–9,13]. There are strong reasons for choosing low risk NSAIDs in those at high risk of cardiovascular events. Our interest here is the extent to which this is reflected in Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs) and in data on sales across several countries. Methods Estimating Cardiovascular Risk with Individual Drugs We ranked NSAIDs by cardiovascular risk (with non-use as reference) using relative risk (RR) values derived from published meta-analyses of randomised trials and controlled observational studies that reported RR for three or more individual drugs [4–9]. Data on pairwise comparisons of individual agents, representing the least confounded comparisons of RR, were obtained from the most recent meta-analysis [9]. Essential Medicines Lists Essential medicines are those satisfying the priority health care needs of the population. They are selected with due regard to public health relevance, evidence on efficacy and safety, and comparative cost-effectiveness. We determined the NSAIDs recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in its Model List of Essential Medicines [15], and by individual countries with published national EMLs [16]. National EMLs are informed by the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines and modified to reflect national health care priorities [17]. For the countries with published EMLs, we compared the information on cardiovascular risk with individual NSAIDs and their inclusion in the country EML. Measuring Sales of NSAIDs in Different Countries Intercontinental Medical Statistics Health (IMS Health) tracks over 80% of global pharmaceutical use by sampling individual country sales through multiple supply routes to retail pharmacies and hospitals (http://www.imshealth.com/portal/site/ims/). These sales include both indirect sales from wholesalers and direct sales from manufacturers. In some countries, hospital audits are based on data sourced from hospital pharmacies. In each country, the sampling data are projected to estimate sales for the whole country. We purchased data from IMS Health on the mass of individual NSAIDs sold in 2011 in 13 countries in the South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Asian Pacific regions (Multinational Integrated Data Analysis, MIDAS). The countries included in the analyses were: Australia, Bangladesh, China, China (Hong Kong), Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singa- pore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The data reflected retail pharmacy and hospital sales in all countries except Bangladesh and Pakistan (retail pharmacy sales) and China (hospital sales). Defined daily doses (DDD), established by the WHO Collaborat- ing Centre for Drug Statistics Methodology (WHOCC), permit comparisons of use between different drugs and across different countries [18]. We calculated the numbers of DDD of individual NSAIDs for each country using the values published by the WHOCC [18]. Data on NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the community in England during 2011 were obtained from public prescription cost analysis reports [19]. For Canada, we purchased data on NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the community during 2011 from IMS Brogan (IMS Brogan Inc., Ottawa, Canada). We did not have sufficient information to convert prescription data to DDD, but assumed that the proportionality of market shares for individual NSAIDs calculated from prescriptions would be equivalent to that derived from sales data. Results Cardiovascular Risk with Individual NSAIDs The meta-analyses were fairly constant in their findings (Table 1). The NSAIDs that had consistently higher cardiovascular risks (RRs) were rofecoxib, etoricoxib, and diclofenac. All were found to have a higher RR than naproxen in pairwise analyses in the most recent published meta-analysis [9]. Indometacin and meloxicam had moderately elevated RR values that were significantly greater than naproxen [9]. Etodolac was found to have an elevated risk but in pairwise analysis, it did not have a statistically significantly higher RR than naproxen [9]. Celecoxib and ibuprofen were associated with elevated RR values when used in clinical trials in high doses but not in the lower doses typically used in the community. We judged naproxen to have the lowest risk. Five of the six meta-analyses found it to be risk-neutral (Table 1). We classified rofecoxib, etoricoxib, and diclofenac as ‘‘high risk’’ drugs for the purpose of analysis. This is conservative in that other NSAIDs could also be considered high risk. EML Inclusions The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines includes three drugs, paracetamol, acetyl salicylic acid (aspirin), and ibuprofen, in the category ‘‘non-opioids and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medicines.’’ Of 100 countries with EMLs published on the WHO website, most included fewer than six agents in this class. The NSAIDs most commonly recommended were: aspirin (88 coun- tries), ibuprofen (90 countries), diclofenac (74 countries), indome- tacin (56 countries), and naproxen (27 countries) (Table S2). Significantly, 51 of the countries that listed diclofenac did not list naproxen. Selective cyclooxygenase-2 (cox-2) inhibitors were included on the EMLs of 12 countries. Of 86 EMLs published or updated since 2007, diclofenac was listed on 74, naproxen on 27. An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 2 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
  • 3. Patterns of NSAID Use Figure 1 presents the market shares of the nine most widely sold NSAIDs in 15 countries. The analyses are presented in Table 2. Full data are provided in Table S1. Diclofenac was the most popular NSAID, with a market share almost equal to that of the next three most popular NSAIDs combined (ibuprofen, mefenamic acid, naproxen). There was no documented use of rofecoxib. Etoricoxib was commonly sold in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore. ‘‘High risk’’ NSAIDs (diclofenac and exoricoxib) comprised about one-third of the market across the 15 countries (median 33.2%, range 14.7–58.7%), and this proportion did not differ between high- and low-income states (Table 2). Discussion NSAIDs with a high risk of cardiovascular complications are widely used. Diclofenac and etoricoxib together account for approximately one-third of all sales of NSAIDs in the 15 countries included in our analysis. There was no difference between high- and low-income countries. Diclofenac was by far the most popular NSAID, despite having an RR identical to rofecoxib [9], which was withdrawn from world markets 8 years ago owing to cardiovascular toxicity [20]. The information on cardiovascular risk associated with diclofenac has been available to regulators, writers of guidelines and essential medicines lists, and prescribers for at least 5 years [4–9]. Calls have been made for its withdrawal [21]. High levels of sales as recently as 2011 suggest that none of this information has resulted in effective action. There has been a slow decline in prescription numbers in England, Australia, and Canada since 2006 (Figure S1), but it remains popular in all three countries, particularly in England where it is the single most- prescribed NSAID (Table S1). While the popularity of diclofenac in high-income countries is well known, to our knowledge this is the first report that highlights the risks associated with its dominant market position in low- and middle-income countries. Etoricoxib is the other high risk NSAID that features in this study. While there is limited information on its cardiovascular risk, an updated meta-analysis published by us in 2011 found a doubling of cardiovascular risk compared with non-use [9]. It was significantly more harmful than ibuprofen and naproxen in pairwise comparisons. In a large head-to-head randomised clinical trial, it had an identical cardiovascular risk to diclofenac [22]. In the current study, etoricoxib accounted for 28% of NSAID sales in Singapore, and 14% in Bangladesh, Hong Kong, and Malaysia. In England, it is prescribed as often as celecoxib (Table S1), but it is not licensed in North America. Based on meta-analyses of randomised and non-randomised studies, the greatest amount of evidence supports naproxen as the safest choice to minimize cardiovascular risk. However, it was listed in only 27 out of 86 national EMLs published or updated since 2007. In contrast, diclofenac was included on 74 of these EMLs. On average, diclofenac was used three times as frequently as naproxen. In other words, evidence on the relative cardiovas- cular safety of this drug has failed to translate into appropriate selection for EMLs or usage. The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines provides limited guidance for selection of NSAIDs on EMLs [15]. It includes aspirin and ibuprofen, but offers no advice on their safety or cost-effectiveness relative to each other or to other NSAIDs. There are a number of limitations to this work. Most obviously, we do not have information on the risk profiles of patients taking NSAIDs. However, the large and consistent volumes of use of high risk NSAIDs make it very likely that these drugs are being taken by substantial numbers of individuals at high risk of serious cardiovas- cular events. We relied on sales data for 13 countries and prescription sales for England and Canada. Sales data provide the most com- prehensive estimates capturing non-prescription and hospital use in addition to community prescribing, although coverage of all sectors was variable in our study. We could not analyse prevalence of use or dosage, and while it is possible that duration of treatment varies between individual drugs, we don’t think this is likely to distort greatly the patterns we have observed in the overall sales data. Importantly, the increase in cardiovascular risk has been reported very early in the course of diclofenac treatment [9,21]. Table 1. Summary of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular events with individual NSAIDs (versus non-use). NSAID Serious Cardiovascular Events; RR (95% CI) Versus Non-use of NSAIDs Observational Studies (Outcomes) Randomised Studies (Outcomes) Hernandez-Diaz et al., 2006 [4] (AMI) Singh et al., 2006 [5] (AMI) McGettigan and Henry, 2006 [6] (CV Events) McGettigan and Henry, 2011 [9] (CV Events) Trelle et al., 2011 [7] (APTC Composite Outcomes) Kearney et al., 2006 [8] (CV Events) Etoricoxib nr nr nr 2.05 (1.45–2.88) 1.53 (0.74–3.17) nr Etodolac nr nr nr 1.55 (1.28–1.87) nr nr Rofecoxib 1.27 (1.12–1.44) nr 1.35 (1.15–1.59) 1.45 (1.33–1.59) 1.44 (1.00–1.99) 1.42 (1.13–1.78) (with celecoxib)a Diclofenac 1.39 (1.18–1.64) 1.38 (1.22–1.57) 1.40 (1.16–1.70) 1.40 (1.27–1.55) 1.60 (0.85–2.99) 1.63 (1.12–2.37) Indometacin nr nr 1.30 (1.07–1.60) 1.30 (1.19–1.41) nr nr Meloxicam nr nr 1.25 (1.00–1.55) 1.20 (1.07–1.33) nr nr Ibuprofen 1.01 (0.89–1.15) 1.11 (1.06–1.17) 1.07 (0.97–1.18) 1.18 (1.11–1.25) 2.26 (1.11–4.89) 1.51 (0.96–2.37) Celecoxib 0.97 (0.86–1.08) nr 1.06 (0.91–1.23) 1.17 (1.08–1.27) 1.43 (0.94–2.16) 1.42 (1.13–1.78) (with rofecoxib)a Naproxen 0.98 (0.87–1.11) 0.99 (0.88–1.11) 0.97 (0.87–1.07) 1.09 (1.02–1.16) 1.22 (0.78–1.93) 0.92 (0.67–1.26) Piroxicam nr nr 1.06 (0.70–1.59) 1.08 (0.91–1.30) nr nr a celecoxib and rofecoxib analysed together. AMI, acute myocardial infarction; APTC, Anti-Platelet Trialists Collaboration; CV, cardiovascular; nr, not reported. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.t001 An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 3 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
  • 4. The findings here have significant implications for public health. For instance, in China the age- and sex-standardised death rate from cardiovascular disease is estimated to be 312/100,000 for males and 260/100,000 for females [23]. Diclofenac is the most commonly used NSAID in hospitals in China. We assume com- munity use follows a similar pattern. If it were taken by only 1% of China’s population of approximately 1.3 billion annually, based on the relative risk calculations from meta-analyses it could cause 14,000 additional unintended deaths. These deaths are preventable—lower risk NSAIDs, including naproxen and low- dose ibuprofen, are widely available and are equally efficacious [24,25]. Both are available as generic products. Figure 1. Individual NSAID defined daily doses (DDD) expressed as a percentage of total NSAID DDD sales in each country in 2011. Data reflect retail pharmacy and hospital sales in all countries except Bangladesh and Pakistan [retail pharmacy sales], China [hospital sales], and England and Canada [prescription sales only]. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.g001 Table 2. Analysis of use of selected NSAIDs in 15 countries. NSAID Individual NSAID Use Expressed as Percent of Total NSAID Sales in All Countries in 2011 Median Maximum Minimum Diclofenac 27.80% 43.40% 8.30% Ibuprofen 11.00% 26.60% 3.30% Naproxen 9.40% 28.20% 0.00% Mefenamic Acid 9.10% 34.70% 0.00% Celecoxib 7.20% 21.20% 0.20% Meloxicam 3.60% 21.00% 0.30% Piroxicam 3.10% 23.60% 0.00% Etoricoxib 2.80% 27.60% 0.20% Indometacin 3.67% 7.20% 0.00% Ketoprofen 1.10% 9.50% 0.20% High Risk NSAIDsa 33.20% 58.69% 14.65% HMIC 31.10% 58.70% 15.80% LMIC 37.30% 57.50% 14.70% Percentage refers to proportion of total NSAID sales in all countries studied. HMIC (high-/high middle-income countries): Australia, China, China (Hong Kong), Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, UK/England, Canada; LMIC (low-/low middle-income countries): Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Vietnam. a Diclofenac, etoricoxib. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388.t002 An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 4 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
  • 5. There is increasing regulatory concern about diclofenac. The European Medicines Agency has just commenced (as of October 2012) a new review of its cardiovascular safety [26]. In low- and middle-income countries, national EMLs are authoritative influ- ences on drug choice, being used as the basis for procurement of safe, cost-effective medicines for public reimbursement and to guide local medicines production [17]. NSAID recommendations on national EMLs should be based on the optimum balance of benefit and harm and give preference to low risk drugs, in parti- cular to ibuprofen and naproxen. Diclofenac has no advantage in terms of gastrointestinal safety [11] and it has a clear cardiovas- cular disadvantage [9]. Given the availability of safer alternatives, diclofenac should be de-listed from national EMLs. There are strong arguments to revoke its marketing authorisations globally. Supporting Information Figure S1 NSAID prescriptions dispensed in the com- munity in England, Australia, and Canada. Data sources: England, National Health Service Prescription Cost Analysis Reports; publicly available up to and including 2011 (http://www. ic.nhs.uk/pubs/prescostanalysis2011 Accessed 12November 2012); Australia, Australian Statistics on Medicines Reports, publicly available up to and including 2009 (http://www.health.gov.au/ internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/health-pbs-general-pubs-asm. htm) (accessed 12 November 2012); Canada, data estimates of prescription numbers dispensed annually, 2007–2011 inclusive, in the community in Canada, purchased from Intercontinental Medical Statistics (IMS), IMS Brogan, a unit of IMS Health, Toronto, Canada (http://www.imshealth.com/portal/site/ims?CURRENT_LOCALE= en_ca) (accessed 12 November 2012). Cox-2-selective, all ‘‘coxib’’ NSAIDs available each year in each country including celecoxib, etoricoxib, lumiracoxib, rofecoxib, valdecoxib; non- selective NSAIDs, all NSAIDs except Cox-2 selective (coxibs) and meloxicam. (TIF) Table S1 Use of individual NSAIDs expressed as a percentage of total NSAID use in each country in 2011. Use is expressed as sales of defined daily doses (DDD, in millions) for all countries except England and Canada where it is expressed as millions of prescriptions dispensed in the community. (DOCX) Table S2 NSAIDs listed on national Essential Medicines Lists; World Health Organization (2012) Essential Medicines Selection. (XLSX) Author Contributions Conceived and designed the experiments: PMG DH. Analyzed the data: PMG DH. Wrote the first draft of the manuscript: PMG. Contributed to the writing of the manuscript: PMG DH. ICMJE criteria for authorship read and met: PMG DH. Agree with manuscript results and conclusions: PMG DH. References 1. Grosser T, Fries S, FitzGerald GA (2006) Biological basis for the cardiovascular consequences of Cox 2 inhibition: therapeutic challenges and opportunities. J Clin Invest 116: 4–15. 2. Henry D, Lim L, Garcia Rodriguez L, Perez Gutthann S, Carson JL, et al. (1996) Variability in risk of gastrointestinal complications with individual non- steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: results of a collaborative meta-analysis. BMJ 312: 1563–1566. 3. Masso Gonzalez E, Patrignani P, Tacconelli S, Garcia Rodriguez L (2010) Variability among non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Arth Rheum 62: 1592–1601. 4. Hernandez-Dıaz S, Varas-Lorenzo, Garcıa Rodrıguez L (2006) Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the risk of acute myocardial infarction. Basic Clin Pharmacol Toxicol 98: 266–274. 5. Singh S, Wu O, Langhorne P, Madhok R (2006) Risk of acute myocardial infarction with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: a meta-analysis. Arthritis Res Ther 8: R153. 6. McGettigan P, Henry D (2006) Cardiovascular risk and inhibition of cyclo- oxygenase: a systematic review of the observational studies of selective anad non- selective inhibitors of cyclo-oxygenase. JAMA 296: 1633–1644. 7. Trelle S, Reichenbach S, Wandel S, Hildebrand P, Tschannen B, et al. (2011) Cardiovascular safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: a network meta- analysis. BMJ 342: c7086. 8. Kearney P, Baigent C, Goodwin J, Halls H, Emberson J, et al. (2006) Do selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitors and traditional non-steroidal anti-inflam- matory drugs increase the risk of atherothrombosis? Meta-analysis of randomised trials. BMJ 332: 1302–1308. 9. McGettigan P, Henry D (2011) Cardiovascular risk with non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs: systematic review of population-based controlled observa- tional studies. PLoS Med 8: e1001098. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001098 10. Scheiman JM, Hindley CE (2010) Strategies to optimise treatment with NSAIDs in patients at risk for gastrointestinal and cardiovascular adverse events. Clin Ther 32: 667–677. 11. Rostom A, Muir K, Dube C, Lanas A, Jolicoeur E, Tugwell P (2009) Prevention of NSAID-related upper gastrointestinal toxicity: a meta-analysis of traditional NSAIDs with gastroprotection and cox-2 inhibitors. Drug Healthcare Patient Safety 1: 47–71. 12. Strand V (2007) Are COX-2 inhibitors preferable to non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in patients with risk of cardiovascular events taking low- dose aspirin? Lancet 370: 2138–51. 13. Garcia Rodriguez L, Tacconelli S, Patrignani P (2008) Role of dose potency in the prediction of risk of myocardial infarction associated with non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs in the general population. J Am Coll Cardiol 52: 1628– 1636. 14. Dans A, Ng N, Varghese C, Tai ES, Firestone R, et al. (2011) The rise of chronic non-communicable diseases in Southeast Asia: time for action. Lancet 337: 680– 89 15. World Health Organization (2011) WHO model list of essential medicines 17th List March 2011. Available: http://whqlibdoc.who.int/hq/2011/a95053_eng. pdf. Accessed 12 September 2012. 16. World Health Organization (2012) Essential medicines selection. Available: http://www.who.int/selection_medicines/country_lists/en/index.html. Ac- cessed 12 September 2012. 17. World Health Organization (2010) Fact sheet number 325. Medicines: essential medicines. Available: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs325/en/ index.html. Accessed 4 November 2012. 18. World Health Organization (2012) ATC/DDD Index 2012. Available: http:// www.whocc.no/atc_ddd_index/. Accessed 12 September 2012. 19. NHS (2011) Prescription cost analysis England 2011. Available: http://www.ic. nhs.uk/statistics-and-data-collections/primary-care/prescriptions/prescription- cost-analysis-england-2011. Accessed 12 November 2012. 20. Merck (2004) Merck announces voluntary worldwide withdrawal of Vioxx. Available: http://www.merck.com/newsroom/vioxx/pdf/vioxx_press_release_ final.pdf. Accessed 12 September 2012. 21. Fosbol EL, Folke F, Jacobsen S, Rasmussen JN, Sørensen R, et al. (2010) Cause- specific cardiovascular risk associated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs among healthy individuals. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 3: 395–405. 22. Cannon CP, Curtis SP, FitzGerald GA, Krum H, Kaur A, Bolognese JA, et al. (2006) Cardiovascular outcomes with etoricoxib and diclofenac in patients with osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis in the Multinational Etoricoxib and Diclofenac Arthritis Long-term (MEDAL) programme: a randomised compar- ison. Lancet 368: 1771–1781. 23. World Health Organization (2012) NCD mortality 2008. Available: http:// gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/ncd/mortality/cvd/atlas.html. Accessed 12 September 2012. 24. Deeks JJ, Smith LA, Bradley MD (2002) Efficacy, tolerability, and upper gastrointestinal safety of celecoxib for the treatment of osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials. BMJ 325: 619–623. 25. Collins SL, Moore RA, McQuay HJ, Wiffen PJ (1998) Oral ibuprofen and diclofenac in post-operative pain: a quantitative systematic review. Eur J Pain 2: 285–291. 26. European Medicines Agency (2012) Questions and answers on the review of non-selective non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and cardiovascu- lar risk: outcome of a procedure under Article 5(3) of Regulation (EC) No 726/ 20041. Available: http://www.ema.europa.eu/ema/index.jsp?curl = pages/news_ and_events/news/2012/10/news_detail_001637.jsp&mid=WC0b01ac058004d5c1. Accessed 11 November 2012. An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 5 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388
  • 6. Editors’ Summary Background. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are among the most widely used drugs. Aspirin, the first NSAID, was developed in 1897 but there are now many different NSAIDs. Some can be bought over-the- counter but others are available only with prescription. NSAIDs can help relieve short- and long-term pain, reduce inflammation (redness and swelling), and reduce high fevers. Common conditions that are treated with NSAIDs include headaches, toothache, back ache, and arthritis. NSAIDs work by stopping a class of enzymes called cyclo-oxygenases (COXs) from making prostaglandins, some of which cause pain and inflammation. Like all drugs, NSAIDs have some unwanted side effects. Because certain prostaglandins protect the stomach lining from the stomach acid that helps to digest food, NSAID use can cause indigestion and stomach ulcers (gastrointestinal complications). In addition, NSAIDs increase the risk of heart attacks and stroke to varying degrees and therefore should be avoided by people at high risk of cardiovascular diseases—conditions that affect the heart and/or blood vessels. Why Was This Study Done? Different NSAIDs are associated with different levels of cardiovascular risk. Selective COX-2 inhibitors (e.g., rofecoxib, celecoxib, etor- icoxib) generally have fewer stomach-related side effects than non-selective COX inhibitors (e.g., naproxen, ibuprofen, diclofenac). However, some NSAIDs (rofecoxib, diclofenac, etoricoxib) are more likely to cause cardiovascular events than others (e.g., naproxen). When doctors prescribe NSAIDs, they need to consider the patient’s risk profile. Particularly for patients with higher risk of cardiovascular events, a doctor should either advise against NSAID use or recom- mend one that has a relatively low cardiovascular risk. Information on the cardiovascular risk associated with different NSAIDs has been available for several years, but have doctors changed their prescribing of NSAIDs based on the information? This question is of particular concern in low- and middle-income countries where cardiovascular disease is increasingly common. In this study, the researchers investigate the extent to which evidence on the cardiovas- cular risk associated with different NSAIDs has translated into guidance and sales in 15 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. What Did the Researchers Do and Find? The researchers derived data on the relative risk of cardiovascular events associated with individual NSAIDs compared to non-use of NSAIDs from published meta-analyses of randomized trials and observational studies. They obtained information on the NSAIDs recommended in 100 countries from national Essential Medicines Lists (EMLs; essential medicines are drugs that satisfy the priority health care needs of a population). Finally, they obtained information on NSAID sales for 13 countries in the South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Asian Pacific regions and NSAID prescription data for Canada and England. Rofecoxib, diclofenac, and etoricoxib consistently increased cardiovascular risk compared with no NSAIDs. All three had a higher relative risk of cardiovascular events than naproxen in pairwise analyses. Naproxen was associated with the lowest cardiovascular risk. No national EMLs recommended rofecoxib, which was withdrawn from world markets 8 years ago because of its cardiovascular risk. Seventy-four national EMLs listed diclofenac, but only 27 EMLs listed naproxen. Diclofenac was the most commonly used NSAID, with an average market share across the 15 countries of nearly 30%. By contrast, naproxen had an average market share of less than 10%. Finally, across both high- and low-/middle-income countries, diclofenac and etoricoxib accounted for one-third of total NSAID usage. What Do These Findings Mean? These findings show that NSAIDs with higher risk of cardiovascular events are widely used in low-/middle- as well as high-income countries. Diclofenac is the most popular NSAID, despite its higher relative risk of cardiovascular events, which is similar to that of rofecoxib. Diclofenac is also widely listed on EMLs even though information on its higher cardiovascular risk has been available since 2006. In contrast, naproxen, one of the safest in relative terms of the NSAIDs examined, was among the least popular and was listed on a minority of EMLs. Some aspects of the study’s design may affect the accuracy of these findings. For example, the researchers did not look at the risk profiles of the patients actually taking NSAIDs. However, given the volume of use of high-risk NSAIDS, it is likely that these drugs are taken by many individuals at high risk of cardiovascular events. Overall, these findings have important implications for public health and, given the wide availability of safer alternatives, the researchers suggest that diclofenac should be removed from national EMLs and that its marketing authorizations should be revoked globally. Additional Information. Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001388. N This study is further discussed in a PLOS Medicine Perspective by K. Srinath Reddy and Ambuj Roy N The UK National Health Service Choices website provides detailed information on NSAIDS N MedlinePlus provides information about aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, and diclofenac; it also provides links to other information about pain relievers (in English and Spanish) N The American Heart Association has information on cardiovascular disease; ‘‘Can Patients With Cardiovascular Disease Take Nonsteroidal Antiinflammatory Drugs?’’ is a Cardiology Patient Page in the AHA journal Circulation N The British Heart Foundation also provides information about cardiovascular disease and has a factsheet on NSAIDs and cardiovascular disease N The World Health Organization has a fact sheet on essential medicines; the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (in English and French), and national EMLs are available An Examination of NSAID Sales in 15 Countries PLOS Medicine | www.plosmedicine.org 6 February 2013 | Volume 10 | Issue 2 | e1001388