Experts predict that by the end of the century, strong artificial intelligence may be developed, potentially leading to an intelligence explosion and technological singularity. Machine learning and deep learning techniques are disrupting labor markets as intelligent machines replace human jobs. By 2020, deep learning methods are expected to continue conquering new fields like medicine and genetics, outperforming other machine learning approaches. Smart assistants using deep learning may become part of everyday life, and human-computer interaction may advance to dialog-style exchanges. However, these are predictions made by humans, who have been biased in predicting AI developments far in the future.

1. Predictions for 2020:
Machine Learning
Steffen Wenz, CTO TrustYou
steffen@trustyou.net

3. Experts agree: Full/strong AI by end of the century
● Intelligence explosion, “technological singularity”
● Nick Bostrom: Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers,
Strategies
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

4. Disruptions on the labor market
● Industrialization diminished physical jobs. What will
smart machines do to thinking/creative jobs?
● “Humans need not apply” (YouTube)
● The end of capitalism?
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

5. Deep Learning
● Revival of neural networks with more computing power?
● Representation learning
→ No more feature modeling
● Learn from lots of unlabeled data
→ Less/no reliance on labeling data by humans
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

6. “Google’s Artificial Brain
Learns to Find Cat Videos”
“A picture is worth a
thousand (coherent)
words” (2014)
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

7. Deep learning out of the box with open source!
● Caffe (Berkeley Vision Group)
● TensorFlow (Google)
● …
● Integration with big data frameworks
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

8. ↝ Deep learning conquers more fields, outperforms ML
methods that rely on human expertise
○ Medicine, genetics!
↝ Smart assistants, limited to a certain domain,
part of everyday life (self-driving cars!)
↝ Dialog-style interaction with computers
↝ Resistance movements to technological unemployment
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100

9. ● Warning, these are predictions made by humans!
● “People are biased to predict AI twenty years in the
future, or just before their own deaths”
● AI predictions from the 60s, followed by AI winter
2012 2016 2020 2035 2100
?

10. Thank you!
Steffen Wenz, CTO TrustYou
steffen@trustyou.net
www.trustyou.com