Presentation given by David Bloom and Salal Humair to the Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, setting out the details and aims of the NextGenerationNigeria project. This presentation also contains the speaking notes

1. Economic Development in Nigeria: A Demographic Perspective Committee on African Studies Harvard Africa Seminar, April 13, 2010 David E. Bloom and Salal Humair Department of Global Health and Population, HSPH

3. Nigeria’s economy has stagnated: No growth in income per capita Source: World Development Indicators 2008

4. Indonesia and Pakistan have seen economic growth Source: World Development Indicators 2008

5. Nigeria’s economy compared with world regions Source: World Development Indicators 2008

6. Comparing economic growth rates average annual growth rate of GDP/capita (PPP), 1980 - 2006 Source: World Development Indicators 2008

7. Nigeria’s fertility rate has started to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

8. The infant mortality rate has fallen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

9. Life expectancy has risen, but not steadily Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

10. Crude birth and death rates are falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

11. Population growth has been rapid Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

12. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people has been pretty steady Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

13. Changing Age Structure, 1950-2010: A 3-dimensional view Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

14. Average annual growth rate of GDP per capita, 1975-2005 Source: World Development Indicators 2008

15. Changing age structure, 1960-2005 Source: UN, World Population Prospects 2008

16. The demographic transition Population growth rate time Death rate Birth rate

18. Nigeria’s population is set to soar Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

19. The fertility rate is expected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

20. The infant mortality rate is projected to continue falling Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

21. Life expectancy will continue to rise Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

22. Crude birth and death rates will continue to fall Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

23. Population growth rate will decline substantially Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

24. The ratio of working-age to non-working-age people is set to increase dramatically Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

25. Growth of the working-age to non-working-age ratio, 1960-2050 ( under 3 UN fertility scenarios) Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

26. Comparing the growth rates of the working-age and non-working-age population Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

27. Changing Age Structure, 1950-2050: A longer 3-dimensional view of Nigeria’s trajectory Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

28. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 1950

29. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 1960

30. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 1970

31. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 1980

32. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 1990

33. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2000

34. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2010

35. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2020

36. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2030

37. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2040

38. Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008 2050

39. Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with East Asia Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

40. Changing Age Structure, 1960-2050: Nigeria compared with Indonesia and Pakistan Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

42. The elderly will make up a larger share of the population Source: UN, World Population Prospects, 2008

43. Will demographic heterogeneity induce economic inequality and political instability?

44. Ratio, working-age to non-working-age population, by state Source: Population and Housing Census, National Population Commission, Nigeria, 1991 and 2006

49. Demographic data is also a big political issue Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4512240.stm

51. Potential impact of demographic dividend on per capita income Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project

52. Potential impact on per capita income with institutional and health improvements Source: Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project Year GDPpC "business-as-usual" GDPpC with DD & added LE GDPpC improved IQ & LE 2010 $2,070 $2,070 $2,070 2015 $2,521 $2,653 $2,664 2020 $3,070 $3,435 $3,461 2025 $3,738 $4,486 $4,535 2030 $4,553 $5,882 $5,966

53. Potential impact of the demographic dividend on poverty Source: Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project Year # lifted out of poverty with DD and added LE # lifted out of poverty with improved IQ & LE 2010 - - 2020 5.8 million 5.8 million 2030 31.8 million 34 million

55. Nigeria will need lots of jobs Source: Author calculations. Year WA pop Unempl-oyment Jobs needed Between years Jobs to be added 2010 85,525,401 20% 52,358,719 2015 97,731,223 15% 63,570,579 2010-15 11,211,860 2020 111,088,850 10% 76,509,768 2015-20 12,939,189 2025 125,325,513 8% 88,233,036 2020-25 11,723,268 2030 140,036,212 7% 99,661,452 2025-30 11,428,415

56. But jobs will also need to be productive: Nigeria’s economic lifecycle - individual Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project

57. Education will be key in making jobs productive: economic lifecycle - aggregate Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project Needs of children Labor surplus

58. And results can be achieved with little: Nigeria’s current education expenditures Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project

59. Nigeria’s education and health spending Source: Mason et al. 2010. Population and economic progress in Nigeria. Background paper for the NGN project. Actual ($) % of spending Education, Public 142 7.33 Education, Private 922 47.63 Health, public 39 2.01 Health, private 833 43.04 Total 1,936 100 Total Public 181 9.33 Total Private 1,755 90.67 Per capita spending (2004 $s)

60. Nigeria’s human capital investment compared to other countries Source: Nigeria: The Next Generation Task Force secretariat, 2010.

61. Low health spending reflected in low level of maternal health Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

62. Low health spending reflected in high levels of child mortality Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

63. Low health spending reflected in low level of children vaccination coverage Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

64. Low health spending reflected in high level of unmet need for family planning Source: Unpublished background memo for the NGN project.

65. Unmet need in the context of current fertility Source: Nigeria 2008 demographic and health survey: key findings.

66. Nigeria’s untapped human capital: the diaspora Source: US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, 2008 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Number of persons obtaining legal permanent residents who were born in Nigeria, fiscal years 1961-2008

67. The Nigerian US diaspora is well-educated Source: Nigerian-born Population in the United States, unpublished background memo, NGN project

68. And the diaspora is a significant resource Source: The World Bank. Migration remittances factbook 2008. Updated Nigeria data from personal communication.

73. Backup slides

74. Estimation results Source: Bloom et al. 2010. Nigeria’s demographic dividend. Background paper for the NGN project