The document discusses the challenges facing Nigerian agriculture in the 21st century. It provides key figures on Nigeria's population, GDP, technology access, and agricultural workforce and production. Several challenges are identified, including insufficient input supply, lack of financing, inadequate infrastructure and logistics, limited production and market access, and poor federal-state coordination of policy. Significant gaps remain between domestic supply and demand for crops like rice, wheat, and livestock. The document suggests Nigeria needs new development scenarios drawing from past waves of change and applying principles of sustainable "Cradle to Cradle" design to address these agricultural challenges.

1. The Challenges for
Nigerian agriculture
in 21-st century
J a r o s ł a w Kopera
M a ł g o r z a t a Major
B a r t o s z Młodkowski
P i o t r Senkus

2. Presentation Plan
1. Key figures
2. Agriculture facts
3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development

3. Nigeria
Key figures

4. 1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.
Key figures - general
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
Africa Nigeria World
Current population in Nigeria has exceeded 180 million of people that makes
over 17% population of Africa and 2,4% of the world population. The dynamic
of growth is lower than in the World and the rest of Africa.

5. 1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.
Nigeria has very good society structure
according to the good perspective of
development.

6. 1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.
Key figures – general (2013 data)
source: Adeola Falodun, Doing business in Nigeria, 2016

7. Key figures - technology
Mobile Internet Users
65 813 890
32,9 % of total population
Mobile Subscribers
129,391,392
74,1 % of total population
source: ITU, June 3013 Mobile Subscribers: NCC, April, 2014
75% of adults living in urban areas and
39% of adults living in rural areas
have access to a pre-paid mobile phone
1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.

8. Key figures - technology
source: Adeola Falodun, Doing business in Nigeria, 2016
Nigeria has the largest internet population in Africa
… and is 8th in the World
1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.

9. Key figures - GDP
source: Emeka Onuzuruike, How The “Recession” in Nigeria will favour “Tech-based” enterprises, 2016
The GDP of Nigeria has been constantly growing until 2014 to the level of 568
Billion of USD, but in 2015 has started to fall. The gross domestic product (GDP)
is equal to the total expenditures for all final goods and services produced
within the country in a stipulated period of time.
1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.

10. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
Key figures – GDP Growth
The main cause of this “slowdown” of GDP output is because the Nigerian
economy is tightly-coupled to “commodity prices” in the international markets
especially oil.
source: Emeka Onuzuruike, How The “Recession” in Nigeria will favour “Tech-based” enterprises, 2016
1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.

11. Key figures – Problems
1. National identity problem
2. Poverty
3. Corruption
4. Inequality
5. Terrorism
6. High level of child mortality
7. Unemployment
8. Poor education
9. Tribalism
10.Home violence
1. Key figures 2. 3. 4.
Except of GDP slowdown Nigeria suffers also some other problems and
challenges.

12. Nigeria
Agriculture facts

13. 2. Agriculture facts - workforce1. 3. 4.
Agriculture remains the dominant sector in the rural areas of Nigeria. It provides
employment for about 60% to 70% of the work force

14. Over 77,9% of the area of the country is agricultural area, but only about 48% is
arable land
2. Agriculture facts - land1. 3. 4.
1000ha

15. The estimated total crops production is about 152 million tones
2. Agriculture facts – crops production1. 3. 4.

16. The production of meat is about 140 million tones
2. Agriculture facts – animal production1. 3. 4.

17. Agriculture trade in Nigeria
2. Agriculture facts – international trade1. 3. 4.

18. Nigeria
The challenges for
Nigerian agriculture

19. Numerous challenges related to agriculture has been identified:
3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture1. 2. 4.
Input Supply • GES’s limited focus and exit strategy set aside, with material
implications for Ministry’s budget, hence the sharp rise in
indebtedness to banks. The system has many leakages from
farmer registration and data capture to supply and distribution
mechanism.
• Insufficient access to improved variety seeds e.g. still a
300,000MT gap between demand and supply of seeds
Financing • Credit access particularly for small holders remains weak
• Backlog of unpaid GES loans (estimated at N39B) has slowed
down bank lending
• Of ~$8 billion in domestic and foreign investor commitments
often cited, only limited volumes actually moved from idea to
reality
Infrastructure &
Logistics
• Investment inflows into infrastructure and midstream logistics
e.g. warehouses, storage, processing systems remains
rudimentary
• Staple crop processing zone (SCPZ) strategy has not yield
results. For example, Kogi SCPZ has not taken off due to
withdrawal of Cargill, the anchor investor from the project

20. Numerous challenges related to agriculture has been identified:
Production • Growth in food production remains limited due to gaps in input
supplies e.g. rice; hence rice imports still exceed $1
billion/annum. Outlined below is an illustrative “best
estimates1” of demand-supply gaps given data quality issues
still present in Nigeria. It is anticipated that as production gaps
are closed via yield improvements, per/ton equivalent costs
will also decline, helping reduce food costs and ultimately,
inflation.
Market Access • Post-harvest losses still an issue but improving moderately
• Illegal food imports remain an issue, depriving farmers of
market opportunities
Others • Federal – State coordination of policy became significant
challenge; some states made choices at odds with federal
approach e.g. continuing direct procurement of fertilizer
• Absence of programme delivery infrastructure / unit at the
federal and state levels; held back key implementation and
donor funding
• Data collection and evidence based reporting remains weak,
hence tracking results / M&E continues to be a challenge
3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture1. 2. 4.

21. Numerous challenges related to agriculture has been identified:
Crop Demand
(mln tons.pcs.)
Supply
(mln tons/pcs.)
Observations
Rice 6.3 2.3 • Insufficient supply chain integration
remains issue
Wheat 4.7 0.6 • Driven by demand for various types of
wheat (white, hard, durum), etc. for
bread, biscuits and semovita
Maize/Corn 7.5 7.0 • Limited imports required but can shift
due to feed demand
Soya Beans 0.75 0.6 • Animal feed and protein cost alt. driving
demand
Chickens 200 140 • Gap filled by illegal imports that enter
market at lower price point than domestic
producers; gap also a moving target based
on fast food/QSR demand
3. The challenges for Nigerian agriculture1. 2. 4.

22. Nigeria
The scenarios for Nigerian
agriculture development

23. 4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.
There should be another scenario for Nigeria to solve the agriculture problems

24. 4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.
Europe, European Union and even Poland face different problems than Nigeria,
and based on best experiences of other countries has to develop own way that
would go parallel with the newest technological, social, environmental and
economical trends

25. “It is not the strongest species
that survive, nor the most
intelligent, but the ones most
responsive to change.”
Charles Robert Darwin
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

26. “if you do not change you’re
dead”
Jack Welsh, former CEO GE
“If change is happening on the outside faster than on the inside the end is in sight.”
Jack Welsh, former CEO GE
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

27. 0
„We can't solve problems by
using the same kind of thinking
we used when we created
them”
Albert Einstein
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

28. 0
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

29. 0
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

30. First wave – agrarian age – has started over 10 000 year ago and
was consequence of developing of farming skills.
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

31. Second wave – industrial wave – has begun with developing the
fonts by Johannes Gensfleisch zur Laden zum Gutenberg about
1450. The wave has escalated by the work of James Watt, who has
improved in 1763 the steam engine developed by Thomas
Newcomen. That wave has revolutionize the ways to produce steel,
electricity and has brought the most of inventions we are using
today.
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

32. Third wave – information wave – it is related with technological
revolution, Internet, communication revolution and knowledge
sharing.
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.
Broadband Internet use 1998 and 2008

33. The experience from the past
waves are require new
development attitudes for Nigeria
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

34. The traditional “Cradle to Grave” design paradigm
A one way street
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

35. Food production depends on soil.
Soil takes tens of thousands of years to form.
The traditional model in agriculture means the loss of topsoil.
More than half of agricultural soil is lost or seriously degraded
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

36. Loss of topsoil due to:
Intensive
over-farming
Incineration & landfilling
of nutrients
Urbanization
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

37. Every year we lose 4000 – 6000 times more humus
… than we build up.
That is why new model is needed
In the European regions it takes 100 to 300 years
to build a Layer of 1 cm of Humus.
25 cm of Humus are needed
to have soil which is fertile enough to be used for food production.
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

38. Irresponsible management of water resources used for agriculture,
irrigation of big cotton plantations has caused drying of the "Aral
Sea" and ecological disaster.
1960 2010
White, K. D. (2014). Nature and Economy in the Aral Sea Basin. In The Aral Sea (pp. 301-335). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

39. Nutrient metabolisms.
The basis for applying C2C principles & goals
&
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.
The new “Cradle to Cradle” design paradigm

40. Principles of the Cradle to Cradle® design paradigm
WASTE EQUALS FOOD
Nutrients become nutrients again
or
Everything is a resource for something else
USE CURRENT SOLAR INCOME
Renewable sources powered by sun
CELEBRATE DIVERSITY
Biodiversity
Cultural diversity
Conceptual diversity
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.

41. The program for developing Nigerian Agriculture should include
Developing the family farm model to make
them food self-sufficient
Developing the co-cooperative model for
proper quality of agriculture supply
Building the broadband Internet
infrastructure to spread specific knowledge
4. The scenarios for Nigerian agriculture development1. 2. 3.