The document discusses the application of Markov chain analysis in human resource decision-making, focusing on manpower planning and forecasting labor supply through employee movement patterns. It outlines the steps in human resource planning, including objectives, current inventory analysis, and gap analysis, as well as external and internal supply forecasting. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of the Markov process in predicting human resource supply, providing valuable insights for management and HR professionals.

1. MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS IN HR DECISION MAKING
PRESENTED BY RAHUL ROY

2. INTRODUCTION
Markov chain is one of the techniques used in
operations research with possibilities view that
managers faced in organizational decision making
.Manpower planning process which the management
determines how an Markov Chain move its current
manpower position to its desired manpower position.
Through planning, management strives to have the
right number and right kinds of people, at the right
places at the right time, doing things which result in
both the organization and individual receiving
maximum long-run benefits.
Andrei Andreyevich
Markov

3. Human Resource Planning Process
 Determining the Objectives of Human
Resource Planning
 Analyzing Current Manpower Inventory
 Forecasting Demand and Supply of
Human Resources
 Analyze the Manpower Gaps
 Employment Plan/Action Plan Training
and Development
 Appraisal of Manpower Planning

4. Supply Forecasting
1. External—people in the labour market not currently working for the organization,
including those who are employed elsewhere and those who are unemployed who can
be expected to join the organization to meet anticipated needs
a) General Economic Condition
b) Labour Market Condition
c) Occupational Market Conditions
2.Internal—present employees who can be trained, transferred, or promoted to
meet anticipated needs
a) Skill inventories and Management inventories
b) Replacement Charts and Replacement Summaries
c) Succesion Plans
d) Markov Analysis

5. Markov Analysis
A method of forecasting internal labour supply that involves tracking
the pattern of employee movements through various jobs and
developing a transitional probability matrix. Estimating internal supply
involves much more than simply calculating the number of employees.
Some firms use the Markov analysis technique to track the pattern of
employee movements through various jobs and develop a transitional
probability matrix for forecasting internal supply by specific categories, such
as position and gender.

6. Hypothetical Markov Analysis of A Manufacturing
Operation
Percentages represent transitions (previous year’s actuals).
This analysis for a Manufacturing operation
shows the actual number (and percentage)
of employees who remain in each job from
one year to the next, as well as the
proportions promoted, demoted,
transferred, and leaving the organization.
These proportions (probabilities) are used
to forecast human resources supply.

7. CONCLUSION
Through the establishment of the improved Markov process, the human resource
supply is predicted.The amount of personnel supply after many times transition is
determined by the way of personnel transferring.This proposed method can provide
guidance for business managers and human resource professionals.
Here we see how MarkovAnalysis takes an important role in HR decision making

8. REFERENCES
1. D. G. Collings and G. Wood, “Human Resource Management, a Critical Approach,”
Routledge, London, 2009.
2. D. Torrington, L. Hall and S. Taylor, “Human Resource Management,” 6th Edition,
Financial Times Prentice Hall, Harlow, 2005.
3. A. Mehlmann, “An Approach to Optimal Recruitment and Transition Strategies for
Manpower Systems Using Dynamic Programming,” Journal of the Operational Research
Society, Vol. 31, No. 11, 1980, pp. 1009-1015.
4. R. Poornachandra, “A Dynamic Programming Approach to Determine Optimal
Manpower Recruitment Policies,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 41,
No. 10, 1990, pp. 983-988.

9. THANK
YOU