DDTT11: Ton Wesseling - 21-01-20
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This document outlines the key tasks of an analyst within an A/B testing culture. The three main tasks are: 1) Ensuring high quality data is available, 2) Prioritizing experiments that have the highest potential for effectiveness, and 3) Calculating the real financial impact of experiments including return on investment. The analyst helps maximize growth by focusing experiments in areas with the highest ROI while minimizing costs like false discovery rates.
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DDTT11: Ton Wesseling - 21-01-20
- 1. Ton Wesseling How an analyst can add value! Digital Experiments
- 5. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM A/B-tes5ng mastery course This talk only makes sense if you have 10.000 transactions or more per month – enough to get experimentation in the DNA of your organization.!
- 8. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM DEF! The task of an analyst within an A/B-testing Culture! 1. Data! 2. Effectiveness! 3. Finance!
- 9. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Data! Let there be high quality data!
- 10. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Make sure all funnels are measured…!
- 11. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Make sure your testing solution has all users! Users on template: 42186! Users in the tool: 37652! Users with code executed: 34312 ! 100%! 89%! 81%!
- 12. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM What if my experiments had 20% more users?!
- 14. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Be able to segment on page interactions!
- 15. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Be able to segment on who can be influenced!
- 16. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Be able to segment on who can be influenced!
- 17. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Be able to create behavioral segments! Typical ecommerce flow example: ü All users on your website with enough time to take action ü All users on your website with at least some interaction ü All users on your website with heavy interaction ü All users on your website with clear intent to buy ü All users on your website that are willing to buy ü All users on your website that succeed in buying ü All users on your website that return with intent to buy more Funnel + Average 5me
- 18. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Data! Let there be high quality data!
- 19. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM DEF! The task of an analyst within an A/B-testing Culture! 1. Data! 2. Effectiveness! 3. Finance!
- 20. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Effectiveness! Make sure you work on stuff! with the highest potential outcome!
- 21. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Statistical Power! The likelihood that an experiment will detect an effect, when there is an effect there to be detected!
- 22. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance New version is NOT better New version is better New version is NOT better New version is better Measured Reality
- 23. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance New version is NOT better New version is better New version is NOT better New version is better Measured Reality
- 24. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance New version is NOT better New version is better New version is NOT better New version is better Measured Reality
- 25. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance Do not reject H0 Reject H0 New version is NOT better New version is better Measured Reality
- 26. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance Do not reject H0 Reject H0 H0 is true H0 is false Measured Reality
- 27. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Significance Do not reject H0 Reject H0 H0 is true H0 is false Correct decision J Measured Reality
- 28. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Significance Do not reject H0 Reject H0 H0 is true Type I False Positive (α) H0 is false Correct decision J Measured Reality
- 29. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power Do not reject H0 Reject H0 H0 is true Correct decision J Type I False Positive (α) H0 is false Correct decision J Measured Reality
- 30. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power Do not reject H0 Reject H0 H0 is true Correct decision J Type I False Positive (α) H0 is false Type II False Negative (β) Correct decision J Measured Reality
- 31. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power New version is NOT better New version is better New version is NOT better Correct decision J Type I False Positive (α) New version is better Type II False Negative (β) Correct decision J Measured Reality
- 32. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Power & Significance rule of thumb Power When you start: try to test on pages with a high Power (>80%) à otherwise you don’t detect effects when there is an effect to be detected (False negatives). Significance When you start: try to test against a high enough significance level (90%) à otherwise you’ll declare winners, when in reality there isn’t an effect (False positives).
- 36. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Prioritize based on MDE to start!
- 37. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Prioritize based on measured results!!
- 38. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Effectiveness! Make sure you work on stuff! with the highest potential outcome!
- 39. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM DEF! The task of an analyst within an A/B-testing Culture! 1. Data! 2. Effectiveness! 3. Finance!
- 41. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM What does your calculation look like?! If significant result:! ! Extra new customers per week! *! 52 weeks effective! *! Average lifetime value!
- 42. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM So this experiment will bring us:! €412.390!
- 45. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM So this experiment will bring us?! €412.390 * (100%-Type-M error %)?!
- 46. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Prioritize based on measured results?! * (100% - M-Type Error) of course!
- 47. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM What is your false discovery rate?! Significance border: 90%! 100 experiments! 20 significant outcomes! ! 50%!* (it’s a little lower, this is the poor man’s calculation)! (with every real win the number of experiments without wins becomes lower, which leads to less false positives)!
- 48. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM So not really 50%! FDR* = (Measured Wins - ((Measured Wins - ! ((100% - Confidence Level) * Experiments))! / Confidence Level)) / Measured Wins! ! =! ! (20 – ((20 – ((100% - 90%) * 100)) / 90%)) / 20! ! =! ! 44%!* (only if your power on all experiments was 100%)! (Your Power will be lower, which means you had more real wins, but not measured (false negatives).! This leads to less experiments without an effect, so the number of false positives will be even lower)!
- 51. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM So all your experiments will bring you:! Sum of (every winner *! ! (100% - Type-M error % per winner))! *! (100% - FDR%)! *! Implementation % (within x months…)! (assuming every new win is tested on the new default where all earlier wins are implemented)!
- 52. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM You can correct FDR for P-value distribution!
- 53. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM So all your experiments will bring you:! Sum of (every winner *! ! (100% - Type-M error % per winner))! *! (100% - corrected FDR%)! *! Implementation % (within x months…)! (assuming every new win is tested on the new default where all earlier wins are implemented)!
- 54. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Maximize your growth with ROI limits:! Value of A/B-testing for Optimization! ___________________________________! ! Costs of A/B-testing for Optimization! = ROI!
- 55. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Finance: are you above or below your ROI limit?! 1. Above: increase budgets! 2. Below: increase knowledge! 3. Still below: decrease budgets!
- 57. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM DEF! The task of an analyst within an A/B-testing Culture! 1. Data! 2. Effectiveness! 3. Finance!
- 59. TON@ONLINEDIALOGUE.COM Data Analyst - The Noun Project icon from the Noun Project An A/B-testing for growth analyst:! 1. Makes sure there is high quality Data available! 2. Steers the data chance on Effect! 3. Reports on the real Financial impact!
- 61. Ton Wesseling https://ondi.me/tonw Let’s connect on LinkedIn Latest article on A/B-testing:
- 62. Ton Wesseling How an analyst can add value! Digital Experiments