The document discusses overcoming confirmation bias. It begins by explaining that confirmation bias is the human tendency to seek out and favor information that confirms preexisting beliefs while dismissing or ignoring information that contradicts those beliefs. It then provides examples of how confirmation bias can limit objective analysis and presents various strategies for overcoming it, such as accepting that one may be wrong, seeking out different perspectives, and questioning one's own assumptions.

1. Next Speaker:
Michael
aagaard (dk)
Confirmation Bias
Next Speaker:

2. Your Brain is Lying to You!
Become a Better Marketer by
Overcoming Confirmation Bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

5. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

6. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

7. #CH2018

8. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

9. INFORMATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

10. CONFIRMATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

11. CONFIRMATION bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

12. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

13. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

14. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

15. What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
#CH2018

16. What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
#CH2018

22. limits our capacity
for objective analysis
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

23. Serious threat to any discipline
that seeks to uncover the truth
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

24. 2 Confirmation
Bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

25. how to overcome
confirmation bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

26. torturing data
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

27. If you torture the data long enough,
it will confess to anything.
- Ronald Coase -
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

28. 93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

29. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

30. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

31. People Who Died By Falling Down the Stairs
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
95%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

32. Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water.
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
90%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

33. Per Capita Consumption of Swiss Cheese
Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water
Correlates With
40%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
@CONTENTVERVE

34. CORRELATION
DOES NOT EQUAL
CAUSATION
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

35. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

36. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

37. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

38. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

39. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

40. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

41. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
Only 2.43% of traffic…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

42. Step 1: Read the research.
Step 2: Get new insight.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

43. THE
CONFIRMATION
BIAS CYCLE
X
X
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

44. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

45. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

46. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

47. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

48. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

49. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

50. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

51. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

52. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

53. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

54. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

55. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

56. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

57. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

58. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

59. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

60. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
https://abtestguide.com/

61. can you torture
qualitative data?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

62. wouldn’t you agree that
this is a useful feature?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

63. can you tell us why
you love our product?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

64. using
marketer’s logic
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

65. myside bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

68. @CONTENTVERVE

69. @CONTENTVERVE

70. @CONTENTVERVE

71. @CONTENTVERVE

72. @CONTENTVERVE

73. @CONTENTVERVE

74. @CONTENTVERVE

75. @CONTENTVERVE

76. @CONTENTVERVE

77. @CONTENTVERVE

78. @CONTENTVERVE

79. @CONTENTVERVE

80. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?

81. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?
88% 80%

82. which university landing page is most credible?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

83. which university landing page is most credible?
36% 64%
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

84. I’M RIGHT
&
YOU’RE WRONG
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

85. I’M SMART
&
YOU’RE STUPID
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

86. how to overcome
confirmation bias
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

87. step 1
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

88. you could be wrong
accept the fact that
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

89. The road to wisdom? — Well,
it's plain and simple to express:
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

90. Err
and err
and err again
but less
and less
and less.
Piet Hein
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

91. step 2
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

92. Seek out a
different perspective
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

93. customer success
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

94. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

95. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

96. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

97. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

98. nope…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

99. will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

100. will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
nope! you will only be billed after your 30-day trial if you choose not
to cancel. we’ll send an e-mail reminder near the end of the trial.
certainly! you can cancel at any time, just go to your account
dashboard and click “manage account”.
of course! you can change plans or switch between monthly/annual
billing via your account dashboard.
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

101. #CH2018

102. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

103. A: Bullets based on marketer’s logic
B: Bullets based on customer insight
11% increase in sign ups
✓ 2 full business cycles
✓ 867 account signups
✓ 95% significance level
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

104. challenge
your beliefs
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

105. step 3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

106. break
the confirmation
Bias cycle
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

107. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

108. the power of habit - charles duhigg
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

109. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

110. the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

111. CUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

112. ROUTINE
CUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

113. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

114. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

115. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE
Reenforcement
of the habit
The action triggered
by the cue
The trigger that
sets off the habit
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

116. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

117. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

118. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

119. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

120. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
1
2
3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

121. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
GREEN TEA
the habit loop
1
2
3
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

122. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

123. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

124. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

125. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

126. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

127. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

128. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

129. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

130. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

132. accept the fact that you could be wrong
er, and er and er again - but less and less and less
seek out a different perspective & challenge your beliefs
break the confirmation bias cycle
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

133. i suffer from confirmation bias -
no one can convince me otherwise…
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

134. thank you!!!
Feel free to reach out
aagaardviking@gmail.com
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018