This document summarizes a study on the future trend of Mongolian permafrost distribution. The study used a logistic regression model to examine the relationship between observed permafrost distribution and climate data from 1961-1990. It then predicted future permafrost distribution based on climate change scenarios from two general circulation models for the years 2040, 2080, and 2090. The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions are strongly correlated with past temperature increases and that permafrost areas will continue to decrease in the forecast years according to the climate change scenarios.

5. Permafrost -Model Verification Current Permafrost Distribution Permafrost distribution by the logistic regression model

6. Future Trend of the Mongolian Permafrost Distribution Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2040 Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2080 Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2090