<ul><li>V.Ulziisaikhan  </li></ul><ul><li>PhD. Student of the University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar Mongolia <...
INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Mean air temperature of Mongolia has increased 1.5C in the last sixty years (Mijiddorj et al., 1998)....
METHODLOGY <ul><li>The Logistic Regression Model </li></ul>
USED DATA <ul><li>IPCC data distribution center was main data source for this study. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li...
Permafrost -Model Verification Current Permafrost Distribution Permafrost distribution by the logistic regression model
Future Trend of the Mongolian Permafrost Distribution Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2040 Predicted distrib...
SUMMARY <ul><li>The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions have a strong correlation with the tempe...
<ul><li>Brown, J., O.J. Ferrians, Jr., J.A. Heginbottom, & E.S. Melnikov.  1997.  Circum-Arctic  Map of Permafrost and Gro...
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Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution

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Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution

  1. 1. <ul><li>V.Ulziisaikhan </li></ul><ul><li>PhD. Student of the University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar Mongolia </li></ul><ul><li>Email: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Renchin Mijiddorj, PhD., Prof. </li></ul><ul><li>University of Science and Technology, Ulaanbaatar Mongolia </li></ul><ul><li>Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. 2008 </li></ul>Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION <ul><li>Mean air temperature of Mongolia has increased 1.5C in the last sixty years (Mijiddorj et al., 1998). </li></ul><ul><li>This research examined spatial relationship of permafrost with observed climate data </li></ul><ul><li>Estimated permafrost distribution changes induced by future climate change. </li></ul>
  3. 3. METHODLOGY <ul><li>The Logistic Regression Model </li></ul>
  4. 4. USED DATA <ul><li>IPCC data distribution center was main data source for this study. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Observed global climate data is mean monthly data for air temperature, 1961-1990. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Climate scenario data of general circulation numerical model: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The German Climate Research Centre (ECHAM4) </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Permafrost -Model Verification Current Permafrost Distribution Permafrost distribution by the logistic regression model
  6. 6. Future Trend of the Mongolian Permafrost Distribution Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2040 Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2080 Predicted distribution by the ECHAM scenario, 2090
  7. 7. SUMMARY <ul><li>The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions have a strong correlation with the temperature increases and that permafrost areas are going to continue to decrease in the forecast years 2040, 2070, and 2099. </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Brown, J., O.J. Ferrians, Jr., J.A. Heginbottom, & E.S. Melnikov. 1997. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions. United States Geological Survey, Circum-Pacific Map Series, CP-45. Reston, VA, USA. (ISBN 0-607-88745-1) </li></ul>

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