Presentation I gave to Rothschild Investment Bank in December 2009

1. Climate Change
The great challenge for democracy &
Why China will lead

3. The background & assumptions

4. Global population since 0 AD (bn)
10
End Second
WWII Current 6bn
Pop 3bn
Adam Smith’s
Invisible Hand 1776
Pop 900m
5
Meyer Amschel
Rothschild was born
1744
Pop 784m
Pop average of 240m in 1st Millennium
0
Source – United Nations

5. Global temperatures

6. Agreement diminishes with distance from the science
% of people who agree Met Office report, Nov 09
95% • 5 yrs work, 66 scientific institutions
• Emissions need to be cut to zero by
70%
2100 to limit to 2C of change
40% • “Europe is currently on track to
experience a rise in average
temperatures of 4C by the end of the
century”
Scientists Mainstream Online
press comments
Source – An informed guess

7. Momentum is building
• Increasing number of countries considering cap & trade
• The technology is emerging
• Insurers are quantifying the costs
• 8th Nov 09 – Spain > 50% of electricity from wind

8. Ways we can solve climate change
Carbon management Geo-engineering
Low risk High risk

9. Democracy and climate change

10. People are looking to government for answers
Source - HSBC

11. But public opinion is waning as policy D-day approaches
• Record energy sector lobbying Those seeing evidence of Global
in Q309 Warming in US
100%
• Oil & gas, utilities - $261m 91%
90% 86%
83%
• Environmental groups - $16m 75%
80%
• Alternative energy - $23m 79% 78%
70% 75%
60%
62%
59%
50%
53%
49%
40%
Dem
30% 35%
Ind
20%
Rep
10%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009

12. Only the brave need apply
• Complex science
• Global issue
• Symptoms are slow to arrive
• An absence of “necessity”
• Are you willing to ignore public opinion?

13. China – from problem to catalyst

14. Biggest CO2 emitters by 2006 emissions (Trn tonnes)
7
6.1
6 5.8
5
3.9
4
3
2 1.6 1.5
1.3
1 0.8
0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
0
Source – United Nations

15. 2007 Emissions / capita (tonnes of CO2)
19.8 20.2 19.9
19.1 18.9 19.3 18.8 18.9
18.7
North America Europe China
8.6 9.1
8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.1
4.3 4.6
3.9
2.0 2.5 2.4
1.2 1.4 1.6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
Source - IEA

16. % of energy coming from renewables (selected countries)
China 9%
US 8%
UK 2%
Germany 6%
France 10%
Denmark 20%
Finland 30%
Sweeden 40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Source - Guardian newspaper & EIA

17. National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2006
• Rising human-related emissions are
causing severe climate change
• Environmental pollution costs of
US$74.9 billion in 2004, 3% of GDP
• Forecasted temperature rises of 1.3-
2.1 degrees C by 2020
• North becoming increasingly
vulnerable to drought
• South suffering from more serious
floods
• By 2030 the overall crop productivity
to decrease by 5% - 10%
Source - CBI Developing a low-carbon economy in China

18. Commitment through stimulus budgets in 2009
Country Fund Period Green Fund % Green
USDbn Years USDbn
China 586 2009-10 221 38%
US 185 2009-19 18 10%
Germany 105 2009-10 14 13%
France 38 2009-10 7 21%
UK 30 2009-12 2 7%
Average 794 267 34%
Asia Pacific 1,154 267 23%
Europe 326 54 17%
Americas 1008 115 11%
Source - HSBC

19. Where is China today?
• Not worried about public opinion
• On track to exceed 2020 goal of 15% of
energy from renewables
• On track to meet main goal of 20%
reduction in intensity by end 2010
• May be leading on CCS
• 2007 - the largest renewable energy
producer
• 50% of scooter sales are electric
• Electric cars starting to appear
• 6 largest (PV) manufacturers, had a
market cap of US$15bn in July 2008.

20. At a micro level
• See a small role for electric cars • Founder is the richest man in
in the 2020 market China
• Working on a plug-in electric • Warren Buffet owns 10%
hybrid • Claims for 2010 electric car
• Recharging infrastructure
250 mile range
• Sale price of 3 x combustion ½ charge in 10 mins
engines
Full charge in an hour
• Linking engines to regulations

21. Conclusion

22. Why is all of this important?
• Climate policy is disruptive
• China is a game changer
• The UK risks being a laggard
• Brave politicians & voters
needed
• Entrepreneurs will deliver
• Vote for revolution!

23. Contact details
Jim Woods
Mobile 07932 044 627
Acre switchboard 0845 257 8030
Acre Resources Ltd
131 - 151 Great Titchfield Street
London
W1W 5BB