Qatar 2022
1. Energy and Climate

“It is your human environment
that makes climate.”

— Mark Twain, Following the Equator,
1897




                                       2
Chakravarty et al., PNAS 2009
Kilowatt-hours                          2005
                   consumed for
                   residential air-
Relative to 1993




                         1993
                   conditioning,             2005
                   U.S.               1993          1993




                                                             5
1950               2007




     1100 ft2            2500 ft2
Average new house’s floorspace, U.S.
                                    7
200
      Energy consumption, billion kWh

                                        150    'Base case'


                                               'High efficiency case'
                                        100


                                         50


                                          0
                                              2005           2010          2015   2020

India
Fig. 3, p. 165                                                      Year
                                                                                         8
Phoenix,
~ 1300
Phoenix, 2012
Phoenix, 2012
2. Efficiency
Coal saved through efficiency “is only
saved from one use to be employed in
others, and the profits gained soon
lead to extended employment in
many new forms. The several
branches of industry are closely
interdependent, and progress of any
one leads to the progress of nearly
all.”

— William Stanley Jevons, 1865
“The chief source of problems
is solutions.”

—Eric Sevareid, 1970
increased
                                 consumption   Kilowatt-
                   increased
                   efficiency                  hours
Relative to 1993




                          1993
                                        2005   consumed for
                                               residential
                   1993          1993
                                               air-
                          2005
                                               conditioning,
                                               U.S.




                                                      14
“A policy of ‘frugality first’ induces
efficiency as a secondary
consequence;

‘efficiency first’ does not induce
frugality--it makes frugality [seem]
less necessary.”

— Herman Daly, 2003
United States, electricity
                                           Air- conditioning consumption*
Biliion kWh




                             1993



                                        renewable
                                        production




                                                                   16
              * buildings only
Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets
Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets
3. Culture

“General Electric has proved a
more devastating invader than
General Sherman.”

— Raymond Arsenault, “The End of
the Long, Hot Summer : The Air
Conditioner and Southern Culture,”
1984
Markham, 1944
Temperature
Temperature




“Civilization”
23
Top ten influences on the American metropolis,
                     1950-2000

1. The 1956 Interstate Highway Act and dominance
   of the automobile
2. FHA mortgage financing and subdivision regulation
3. De-industrialization of central cities
4. Downtown redevelopment and public housing
5. The suburban tract house
6. Racial segregation and job discrimination
7. Enclosed shopping malls
8. Sun Belt–style sprawl
9. Air-conditioning
10. Urban unrest in the 1960s
             Society for American City and Regional Planning History, 2000
25
26
21      24
                                  27 16
                                  42
  64
                                  62
                      80
                        92
annual cooling days
                                       163
19      11
                                12 16
                                27
  72
                                60
                    58
hours per year in     56
traffic delays                       50
29
11
4. Productivity
“Doesn’t the AC-free enviro-dream world
sound wonderful? Daily summertime
siestas, shorter business hours, even
some days completely off! … ”

-- Conn Carroll, Heritage Foundation, 2010
“ … but as with all enviro-leftist schemes,
the heavy costs of their low energy
utopian dream are being ignored. Slower
workdays mean less productivity. Shorter
hours and closed offices mean lost profits
for employers.”

-- Conn Carroll, Heritage Foundation, 2010
Factory employees
Temperature   Alan Hedge, Cornell
(A footnote)


               Productivity



                       Avg. hourly
                       wage
5. Comfort & Health
“A May 2003 survey by the
International Facilities Management
Association says that being too cold
was the number-one office
complaint ... followed by being too
hot.”

—New York Times, 2005
                                37
Thailand: office employees
   percent comfortable




                             38
95

                                            90
  Indoor temperature
                       Indoor temperature




                                            85

                                            80

                                            75

                                            70

                                            65
                                                 70   75       80      85        90   95
                                                           Outdoor temperature
de Dear235
 Fig. 4, p. and
                                                                                           39
Brager, 2001
45
11

Gulf Coast Green 2012 Stan Cox

  • 1.
  • 2.
    1. Energy andClimate “It is your human environment that makes climate.” — Mark Twain, Following the Equator, 1897 2
  • 3.
  • 5.
    Kilowatt-hours 2005 consumed for residential air- Relative to 1993 1993 conditioning, 2005 U.S. 1993 1993 5
  • 7.
    1950 2007 1100 ft2 2500 ft2 Average new house’s floorspace, U.S. 7
  • 8.
    200 Energy consumption, billion kWh 150 'Base case' 'High efficiency case' 100 50 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 India Fig. 3, p. 165 Year 8
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
    2. Efficiency Coal savedthrough efficiency “is only saved from one use to be employed in others, and the profits gained soon lead to extended employment in many new forms. The several branches of industry are closely interdependent, and progress of any one leads to the progress of nearly all.” — William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  • 13.
    “The chief sourceof problems is solutions.” —Eric Sevareid, 1970
  • 14.
    increased consumption Kilowatt- increased efficiency hours Relative to 1993 1993 2005 consumed for residential 1993 1993 air- 2005 conditioning, U.S. 14
  • 15.
    “A policy of‘frugality first’ induces efficiency as a secondary consequence; ‘efficiency first’ does not induce frugality--it makes frugality [seem] less necessary.” — Herman Daly, 2003
  • 16.
    United States, electricity Air- conditioning consumption* Biliion kWh 1993 renewable production 16 * buildings only
  • 17.
    Jeff Rubin, CIBCWorld Markets
  • 18.
    Jeff Rubin, CIBCWorld Markets
  • 19.
    3. Culture “General Electrichas proved a more devastating invader than General Sherman.” — Raymond Arsenault, “The End of the Long, Hot Summer : The Air Conditioner and Southern Culture,” 1984
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
    Top ten influenceson the American metropolis, 1950-2000 1. The 1956 Interstate Highway Act and dominance of the automobile 2. FHA mortgage financing and subdivision regulation 3. De-industrialization of central cities 4. Downtown redevelopment and public housing 5. The suburban tract house 6. Racial segregation and job discrimination 7. Enclosed shopping malls 8. Sun Belt–style sprawl 9. Air-conditioning 10. Urban unrest in the 1960s Society for American City and Regional Planning History, 2000
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
    21 24 27 16 42 64 62 80 92 annual cooling days 163
  • 28.
    19 11 12 16 27 72 60 58 hours per year in 56 traffic delays 50
  • 29.
  • 30.
    4. Productivity “Doesn’t theAC-free enviro-dream world sound wonderful? Daily summertime siestas, shorter business hours, even some days completely off! … ” -- Conn Carroll, Heritage Foundation, 2010
  • 31.
    “ … butas with all enviro-leftist schemes, the heavy costs of their low energy utopian dream are being ignored. Slower workdays mean less productivity. Shorter hours and closed offices mean lost profits for employers.” -- Conn Carroll, Heritage Foundation, 2010
  • 33.
  • 35.
    Temperature Alan Hedge, Cornell
  • 36.
    (A footnote) Productivity Avg. hourly wage
  • 37.
    5. Comfort &Health “A May 2003 survey by the International Facilities Management Association says that being too cold was the number-one office complaint ... followed by being too hot.” —New York Times, 2005 37
  • 38.
    Thailand: office employees percent comfortable 38
  • 39.
    95 90 Indoor temperature Indoor temperature 85 80 75 70 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Outdoor temperature de Dear235 Fig. 4, p. and 39 Brager, 2001
  • 45.