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Vol. 11, No. 45 / March 7, 2013
Market Comments Combined US & Canada Hog Breeding Herd
Indexed with Q1,2005 = 100
104
Statistics Canada released yesterday its semi annual
estimates of cattle and hog inventories which combined with the 102
recently released numbers from USDA provide a more complete
picture of overall cattle and hog supplies in North America 100
(Mexican numbers are somewhat more opaque but are an im-
portant part of the picture given the significant number of Mexi- 98
can feeders flowing into US feedlots). Please note that Statistics
Canada has cut the frequency of the hog inventory report from 96
quarterly to semi-annually due to budget cuts. This makes it
94
more challenging to properly match up US and Canadian data
during certain parts of the year and reduces the supply flow visi-
92
bility. Below are some of the highlights from these reports:
90
- Despite the surge in grain prices in North America in the I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
second half of 2012, combined US/Canada hog inventory levels at 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
the end of 2012 was 79.068 million head, just 0.1% lower than the
previous year. The Canadian hog inventory as of January 1, 000 HEAD
COMBINED US AND CANADA JANUARY BEEF COW INVENTORY
2013 was 12.720, down 0.5% from the previous year. 42,000.00
- The combined US and Canadian hog breeding herd took
a step back (see chart). The breeding stock through Q2 of 2012
40,000.00
had been steadily increasing following the dramatic liquidation
after the 2008 feed price spike and the financial crisis. However,
at the end of 2012 the breeding herd inventory in Canada 38,000.00 -0.8%
-0.8%
was pegged at 1.208 million head, down 0.9% from 2011 -3.0%
levels. The combined US and Canada hog breeding stock was 36,000.00 -1.8%
7.025 million head, slightly above year ago levels but down 0.7% -2.0%
compared to where it was back in June 2012. -2.1%
34,000.00
- Statistics Canada has stopped reporting estimates -2.6%
on the pig crop and farrowings. The lack of this data makes
it difficult to come up with any sort of reliable estimate as to the
32,000.00
supply of pigs coming to market in the coming quarters. It is a
reminder of the impact that budget cuts can have on the quantity 30,000.00
and quality of data, which sometimes is taken for granted.
- Cattle inventories in Canada as of January 1, 2013
were estimated at 12.275 million head, 0.5% higher than the where it was in 2006. Canadian producers intended to rebuild
previous year. This is the second consecutive year that Canadi- their beef cow herd in 2012 as the number of heifers held back for
an inventories have increased but the inventory level remains beef cow herd replacement jumped 5.6%. This follows a similar
dramatically lower than its 2005 peak of almost 15 million head. kind of increase in 2011. But despite two consecutive years of
- As with hogs, the beef cow inventories have declined dra- increases in heifer retention, the beef cow herd in Canada has
matically since the grain price spike and financial crisis. The continued to decline. High feed costs and drought in the US have
combined US and Canadian beef cow inventory as of January 1, cut short any expansion plans. The beef cow herd in Canada
2013 was 33.252 million head, down 2.6% from the previous year. as of January 1 was 3.956 million head, down 1% from a year ago
The combined inventory is now down almost 12% compared to and down 25% from its peak in 2005.
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