1. Vol. 10, No. 191 October 3, 2012
. There will apparently be no October Hog Statistics report to harvest a wheat crop or in May (ie. the wheat is “grazed out”) if the
from Statistics Canada. USDA released a statement on Monday that value of extra cattle pounds exceeds the potential value of a wheat
it would not be publishing its quarterly United States and Canada Hogs crop. A limited grazing system involving one day on wheat and 2-3
report on October 29 because its Canadian counterpart has decided to days on dry grass or hay is best for dry cows.
discontinue its October report. We can find no mention of the change Dr. Peel reports that the economics of wheat grazing pro-
on the Statistics Canada website and are surprised that such a change grams appear good at present. March and May feeder cattle futures
would be made without a bit more discussion and publicity. The next are currently sufficient to lock in values of gain that range from $110/cwt
United States and Canada Hogs report will be released in February to $135/cwt. Those values will cover a grazing cost of about $150 to
according to the USDA announcement, implying that Canada will still $170 as well as other typical costs and still return $70 to $90/head.
publish its January Hog Statistics report. Light-weight (400 to 500 lbs) steers on a graze-out program have the
We find the timing of this change to be problematic to say the potential to return $70-$100/head after covering a wheat grazing cost of
least. One could look at the fact that Canada’s herd has numbered $258-$310 per head.
between 1.2 and 1.22 million head for the past two years and conclude
that it may not change much more after the roughly 400,000 head de-
cline from 2005 through 2010. But Canadian producers, like their U.S.
counterparts, are facing very, very difficult times. Kevin Grier, Senior
Market Analysts at Ontario’s George Morris Centre, detailed some of
the difficulties facing Canadian producers in his weekly Canadian Pork
Market Review this week. And the reductions are not just among the
large outfits like Big Sky Farms and Puratone. He cites industry con-
tacts in stating that there are 10,000 or so sows vulnerable in Ontario
and that the sow herd in Quebec is “going down” in spite of the prov-
ince’s long-standing subsidies for its hog producers. He goes on to
detail calls for financial assistance by various Canadian pork producer
groups. Most of those calls are for loans and Canadian producers and
policy makers are keenly aware of the scrutiny any programs will be
under by U.S. producers who are always suspicious of Canadian
“assistance” programs. Manitoba Pork Council Charirman Karl Kynoch
is quoted saying “Getting government to the table and up to speed on
the situation has been challenge.” We think discontinuing supply and
inventory reports at a critical time may be a symptom of that challenge.
This week’s Crop Progress Report from USDA indicates
that winter wheat planting is progressing at a very normal pace.
That is good news for the beef industry which sorely needs to see the
wheat crop progress normally in order to provide pasture for calves and,
as was the case last year, a good number of cows given the poor pas-
ture conditions in much of the country. As of September 30, 40% of the
nations winter wheat acres had been planted. That compares to 36%
last year and an average of 43% over the past 5 years. Emergence
stood at 12%, the same as last year and 4% slower than the 5-year
average of 16%.
Dr. Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State detailed some important
developments for wheat pastures in his OSU Cow-Calf Corner article
last week. He points out that significant rainfall in much of Oklahoma
last week (see the top map from NOAA) helped winter wheat conditions
but that the northern tier of counties remains very dry. In addition, Dr.
Peel quite correctly points out that the rainfall has not solved the long-
term drought conditions (bottom map) and that additional moisture will
be needed soon.
Typical wheat grazing programs begin in November or early
December. Calves or yearlings can be grazed on wheat pasture full
time and removed in late February or early March if the producer wants
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