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Now for the Bad News:

  Prairie Agriculture’s Contribution to
the Rural Development Policy Debate


           Andrew N. Reed
          Queen Mary College
          University of London
Evaluation Problem

• Macro or Micro Scale

• The ‘Structure of Production’

• Time Scale

• Spatial Scale
Policy Objectives
Three Phases

• Development Phase    (1870 - 1930)

• Remedial Phase       (1930 - 1970)

• Post-Keynesian Phase (1970 - ?)
‘Top-Down’ Theory

       The Long Heads




J. M. Keynes     J. K. Galbraith
‘Top-Down’ Theory


• Keynesian

• Welfare Economics

• New Market Failure
Intended Consequences
Market Failure
 • Stabilization

 • Equity

 • Curb Monopoly Effects

 • Counteract Lock-in and Path Dependency

 • Prevent Environmental Externalities

 • Alleviate Crises
Unintended Consequences

Government Failure
    • Volatility

    • Monopoly

    • Reduced Living Standards

    • Lock-in and Path Dependency

    • Environmental Externalities

    • ‘Perpetual Crisis’
Consequences of Intervention

 Distorts information which affects
 technical change in 3 different ways:

• Halts technical change

• Deflects technical change

• Encourages diffusion
‘Bottom-Up’ Theory

    The Round Heads




F. A. Hayek    J. A. Schumpeter
‘Bottom-Up’ Theory

• Technical Change
  – Evolutionary Economics
  – Schumpeter: Growth vs. Development
  – Transitional Gains Trap


• Robust Political Economy
  – Austrian Economics/ ‘Knowledge Problem’
  – Public Choice Theory/ ‘Incentive Problem’
Policy Opportunities

• Productive Rents from Dismantling
  Counterproductive Policies

• Increasing Awareness of Costs
  Involved

• Political and Sociological Issue – Not
  an Economic problem
Policy Risks

• Social Experiments: ‘Development
  Projects as Policy Experiments’
  (Rondinelli, 1983)

• Creates Opportunities for Rent-
  Seeking

• Imposition of Ideologies
Categories of Intervention
Quick Guide to 20th Century Economics
Policy Process

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20240605 QFM017 Machine Intelligence Reading List May 2024
 

Cs4 p10 reed now for the bad news