Cost and Finance in Off-Grid Access
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This document summarizes research on financing off-grid energy access. It finds that third party financing has increased adoption of technologies like rooftop solar in the US. Pilot projects in Millennium Villages using pay-as-you-go microgrids demonstrated that most customers maintained positive balances over 90% of the time. Data from these projects can provide insights into technical improvements and their costs. The document also discusses the importance of considering reliability versus cost in system design and examines how financing structures and perceived returns affect adoption and payback periods for different technologies.
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Wayne Gardner - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
June 15, 2011
Wayne Gardner's presentation from America’s Sustainable Future: How U.S. Cities Are Making Energy Work, an invitational conference of public-private partnership efforts from U.S. cities pursuing innovative energy management and smart grid initiatives. The assembled leaders in industry, research and policy-making will explore the diverse energy strategies emerging in Philadelphia and across the United States.
“We’re really looking forward to both learning from the great examples set by other cities represented in the conference, and showing off the groundbreaking work happening right here in Philadelphia,” says Laurie Actman, Viridity Energy’s director of strategic partnerships and public policy.
“With smart ideas and smart policy, we should be able to build support for smart grid projects and microgrids at the federal, state and local level.”"Energy technology is changing at such a rapid pace, it's crucial to examine who's doing it right in smart grid and microgrid projects all around the country," says Eugenie Birch, Penn IUR co-director.
"With the right policy moves—which we'll be exploring at the conference—Philadelphia can be a national leader in energy innovation," noted Susan Wachter, Penn IUR co-director.
Ten Things You Should Know About Green Power Markets
The document discusses 10 key things to know about green power markets in the United States. It notes that over 2,000 MW of new renewable energy capacity is being supported through voluntary green power markets. It also mentions that green power premiums have been declining and some utility customers now pay less for green power than the standard power mix. The largest green power purchaser in the US is the Air Force, buying over 1 billion kWh annually.
The Role of Minigrids in Energy Access and National Electrification Planning
This document discusses developing a national energy plan that promotes energy access and economic growth. It argues that energy access means more than just basic lighting and must provide equal opportunities to improve quality of life. Mini-grids can play a role but must be planned to connect and grow with communities' increasing energy needs over time. A comprehensive plan requires in-depth data collection and should facilitate connecting mini-grids to each other and the public grid to efficiently meet energy demand and allow communities to develop.
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Service Concepts is a rural electric cooperative serving over 28 rural electric cooperatives in Indiana. It provides services such as energy efficiency programs, advanced metering, and education to its member cooperatives and consumers. The document also discusses trends in different generations and their priorities related to energy as well as emerging technologies such as hydrogen generation, broadband wireless, and fiber broadband over power lines projects.
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Wayne Gardner - Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission
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Cost and Finance in Off-Grid Access
- 1. Cost and Finance in Off-Grid Energy Services Berkeley Rural Energy Group Daniel Soto Sonoma State University 21 March 2014
- 2. Introduction How do we accelerate the pace of energy access, particularly the adoption of watt-scale devices How do we ensure that these devices are accessible to all income levels? Product cost and financing both important
- 3. Parallels between US and off-grid
- 4. Manhattan blackout People exhibit identical behavior in disaster blackouts and off-grid environments
- 5. US Third party financing Growth in financing options led to an increase rooftop solar Financing is key to off-grid energy access Top investors target the residential solar leasing model To address the growing residential opportunity, many of the world’s leading PV manufacturers have opened new business units and launched financing and hardware product solutions for the market. More importantly, the channel used to serve the residential market has shifted quickly in the past three years. In H1 2009, third party ownership with leases represented less than 20% of the California residential PV installation market, while in H1 2012 solar leasing claimed >70% market share1. 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% H1-2007 H2-2007 H1-2008 H2-2008 H1-2009 H2-2009 H1-2010 H2-2010 H1-2011 H2-2011 H1-2012 Third Party Other Calfornia Solar Initiative Residential Installations http://www.pwc.com/cleantech
- 6. Outline Millennium Villages microgrids Pilot project Data gathered Lessons learned Future Work Affordability Negative recurring costs for consumers
- 7. Millennium Villages pay-as-you-go The primary objectives were to Demonstrate system for micropayments for electricity Remove upfront consumer investment Demonstrate technical feasibility Demonstrate customer acceptance
- 14. Data Collected Per customer power and energy consumption on 3 second intervals stored locally Hourly data sent via cellphone to a server Customer transactions and credit balances recorded Allows for observation of account balance and payment regularity
- 15. Customer payment behavior Accurate reporting on the financial behavior of customers allows for an accurate calculation of risk and return.
- 16. Time with positive balance 70% of consumers maintained a positive balance over 90% of the time
- 17. Time with positive balance 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Percentage of Time With Credit Available 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0FractionofCustomers 2012-02-01 00:00:00 - 2012-03-01 00:00:00
- 18. Positive balance and average expenditure Many customers with modest expenditures displayed consistent payment behavior. Soto et.al. ICTD 2012
- 19. Technical outcomes What technical improvements are suggested by these observations? Low cost metering solutions Battery, inverter, generator efficiency Reliability
- 20. Low-cost metering system UCB developed a low-cost metering system for microgrids Rosa, Madduri, IEEE GHTC 2012 System commercialized by a microgrid startup company
- 21. Inverter and generator efficiency Inverters and generators must be large enough to safely meet the highest demand Operating below the rated load results in lower efficiency What is the financial penalty for lower efficiency?
- 22. Load duration curves 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Fraction of Availability 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 AverageHourlyPower Lighting Lighting and Freezer
- 23. Modeling of improvements Clear sky insolation model Semi-ideal inverter model Choose smallest battery and panel to meet demand https://github.com/dsoto/pv energy balance
- 24. Cost penalty for inverter performance 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Day Night Constant Ligh:ng Freezer Cost (USD/kWh) Typical Flat Soto, Modi, IEEE GHTC 2012
- 25. Battery comparisons Using same model, what is the dependence of system cost on the battery technology Lead acid batteries Inexpensive 1000 cycles of life 80% round trip energy efficiency Lithium iron phosphate Expensive 10000 cycles of life 92% round trip energy efficiency
- 26. System cost by battery technology
- 27. Trade off between cost and reliability Demanding high reliability as a design point can increase cost Goal is to enable microgrid designers consider reliability in the design process
- 28. Cost and energy shortfall probability (ESP) Lee, Soto, Modi, In Press, Renewable Energy
- 29. Future Work Affordability of energy access Financing of energy access
- 30. Negative recurring cost Payback is less important than a reduction in expenditures for many consumers If saving is difficult, little ability to pay above existing expenditures Pico-power product is an investment that generates returns in the form of avoided costs
- 31. Payback periods Device Initial Cost Monthly Revenue Months Payback Solar Lantern $20 $2.00 10 Battery for phone charging $150 $15.00 10 Battery selling electricity $150 $3.00 50
- 32. Returns and available financing 0 10 20 30 40 50 Life of term (months) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Equivalentrateofreturn small lantern battery in a box retail electricity Microfinance usually shorter than 12 months and above 35%
- 33. What are the drivers of finance rate and payback period? Perceived risk Investor demand Alternative investments Transaction costs Are there conflicting requirements for donors and recipients for initial cost and sustainability?
- 34. Impact on practitioners How do academics communicate with practitioners?