This was prepared for a mathematical literate (honors) young teenage girl. This introduces risk assessment and risk mitigation using Public Health Measures. Also includes a mathematical tuitorial.
Data Driven Decision Making in Ministry of Health and Family WelfareData Portal India
Data Driven Decision Making in Ministry of Health and Family Welfare presentation by Dr. Vishnu Kant Srivastava, Chief Director D/o Health & Family Welfare.
Early Impacts of the ACA on Health Insurance Coverage in Minnesotasoder145
The analysis found that the number of uninsured Minnesotans fell from 445,000 to 264,000 between September 2013 and May 2014, a reduction of 180,500 people. This unprecedented drop in uninsurance reduced Minnesota's rate from 8.2% to 4.9%. Most coverage gains occurred in public insurance programs like Medical Assistance, which saw an increase of 155,000 people. Private health insurance coverage also increased by a net gain of 30,000 as a result of a 36,000 gain in nongroup coverage offsetting a 6,000 loss in group coverage. The findings were consistent with other analyses of the early impacts of the Affordable Care Act nationally and with reforms in Massachusetts.
American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIAN) in National Survey Datasoder145
This document provides an overview of national survey data sources relevant for research on American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIAN). It describes data available from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) including natality, mortality, linked birth/infant death data, and the National Health Interview Survey. It also discusses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data sources like the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, and Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. Procedures for accessing public use and restricted files from the NCHS Research Data Center are outlined.
The document discusses analyzing COVID-19 case data using a data science pipeline approach. It outlines collecting data from sources like the COVID Tracking Project and Johns Hopkins University, then cleaning and manipulating the data in Pandas dataframes. It focuses on Maryland county-level case and testing data. The goals are to make predictions about how the crisis may evolve over time to better inform policymakers.
(1) The document discusses using data to indicate adverse selection in a community health insurance program in Nigeria. (2) It analyzes drug consumption data from the program which shows that clients with pre-existing conditions on average account for over half of clients accessing treatment and consume over 50% of drugs each month. (3) This confirms that adverse selection is a major risk, as individuals with prior medical issues are more likely to enroll in the insurance than healthy individuals, threatening the financial sustainability of the program.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 9, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including using a Gompertz function to model cumulative cases and log-linear regression for deaths. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic impact. Updates are typically provided daily with potential delays due to clinical responsibilities. Charts and metrics like case mortality, daily case changes, and prediction intervals are explained.
- The document presents preliminary results from the Minnesota Long-Term Services and Supports Projection Model (MN-LPM), which projects LTSS utilization and costs for Minnesota's Medicaid elderly population through 2030.
- In 2015, over 54,000 Minnesotans received LTSS through Medicaid, costing $991 million total. The model projects these numbers will double by 2030, with LTSS costs reaching $1.7 billion as HCBS use grows significantly faster than nursing home use.
- The model uses Minnesota-specific data on the characteristics of elderly residents and current LTSS spending patterns to generate projections. It is intended to help evaluate potential policy changes that could impact future LTSS needs and costs in
Data Driven Decision Making in Ministry of Health and Family WelfareData Portal India
Data Driven Decision Making in Ministry of Health and Family Welfare presentation by Dr. Vishnu Kant Srivastava, Chief Director D/o Health & Family Welfare.
Early Impacts of the ACA on Health Insurance Coverage in Minnesotasoder145
The analysis found that the number of uninsured Minnesotans fell from 445,000 to 264,000 between September 2013 and May 2014, a reduction of 180,500 people. This unprecedented drop in uninsurance reduced Minnesota's rate from 8.2% to 4.9%. Most coverage gains occurred in public insurance programs like Medical Assistance, which saw an increase of 155,000 people. Private health insurance coverage also increased by a net gain of 30,000 as a result of a 36,000 gain in nongroup coverage offsetting a 6,000 loss in group coverage. The findings were consistent with other analyses of the early impacts of the Affordable Care Act nationally and with reforms in Massachusetts.
American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIAN) in National Survey Datasoder145
This document provides an overview of national survey data sources relevant for research on American Indians and Alaska Natives (AIAN). It describes data available from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) including natality, mortality, linked birth/infant death data, and the National Health Interview Survey. It also discusses Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data sources like the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, and Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System. Procedures for accessing public use and restricted files from the NCHS Research Data Center are outlined.
The document discusses analyzing COVID-19 case data using a data science pipeline approach. It outlines collecting data from sources like the COVID Tracking Project and Johns Hopkins University, then cleaning and manipulating the data in Pandas dataframes. It focuses on Maryland county-level case and testing data. The goals are to make predictions about how the crisis may evolve over time to better inform policymakers.
(1) The document discusses using data to indicate adverse selection in a community health insurance program in Nigeria. (2) It analyzes drug consumption data from the program which shows that clients with pre-existing conditions on average account for over half of clients accessing treatment and consume over 50% of drugs each month. (3) This confirms that adverse selection is a major risk, as individuals with prior medical issues are more likely to enroll in the insurance than healthy individuals, threatening the financial sustainability of the program.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 9, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including using a Gompertz function to model cumulative cases and log-linear regression for deaths. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic impact. Updates are typically provided daily with potential delays due to clinical responsibilities. Charts and metrics like case mortality, daily case changes, and prediction intervals are explained.
- The document presents preliminary results from the Minnesota Long-Term Services and Supports Projection Model (MN-LPM), which projects LTSS utilization and costs for Minnesota's Medicaid elderly population through 2030.
- In 2015, over 54,000 Minnesotans received LTSS through Medicaid, costing $991 million total. The model projects these numbers will double by 2030, with LTSS costs reaching $1.7 billion as HCBS use grows significantly faster than nursing home use.
- The model uses Minnesota-specific data on the characteristics of elderly residents and current LTSS spending patterns to generate projections. It is intended to help evaluate potential policy changes that could impact future LTSS needs and costs in
Implications of the Affordable Care Act: Medicaid Expansion for Health Care A...soder145
This document summarizes a study on the implications of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The study analyzed data on low-income uninsured and Medicaid-enrolled adults to: 1) understand the health care needs of those who could gain Medicaid and 2) estimate how well Medicaid would meet their needs. The results suggest those gaining Medicaid would have large reductions in access problems but still face barriers, as Medicaid enrollees had higher emergency department use than the uninsured. The estimates help inform expectations for Medicaid expansion, but have limitations from differences between current and new enrollees.
This document discusses physician shortages in New York State, particularly regarding OB/GYNs. It summarizes that while New York has a high number of OB/GYNs, they are not evenly distributed across counties. Some counties have no OB/GYNs at all. It then analyzes the relationship between the population-weighted availability of OB/GYNs at the county level and various birth outcomes like infant mortality, low birthweight, and birth defects. Through statistical analysis while controlling for risk factors, the document finds that the local presence of OB/GYNs has little effect on birth outcomes.
Town Hall Meeting, hosted by Congressman Jim Moran, Alexandria, VA July 28, 2008
Presented by:
David M. Walker, President and CEO, The Peter G. Peterson Foundation and Former Comptroller General of the United States
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 8, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several specific locations. It notes the data sources and modeling approaches used, and includes caveats about the analysis being non-confidential and apolitical. Graphs and charts are included to illustrate current case and death trends.
The document discusses how the US healthcare system is currently pre-industrial and will undergo disruption through industrialization. It argues that healthcare costs are unsustainably high and increasing faster than wages or inflation. As consumers face higher deductibles and premiums, consumerism will drive changes in the system. The document also notes several problems including the instability of Medicare and Medicaid funding, an aging population increasing demand, and significant issues with patient safety. It believes elements of value-based care and payment reform show signs of an emerging industrialized, more efficient healthcare model in the US.
The High Performing FQHC of Tomorrow: Expanding the Mission Through MarginSage Growth Partners
This document summarizes a presentation given at the NACHC Conference FOM/IT on October 28, 2015 about the high-performing Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) of the future. It discusses major trends like rising healthcare costs, the shift to value-based care, and Medicaid reform that are drawing FQHCs into the changing healthcare economy. It provides examples of FQHCs partnering with Accountable Care Organizations and payers. The presentation argues that FQHCs should embrace transparency, pursue value-based payment opportunities, and actively manage patient populations to succeed in this new environment while continuing their mission.
This document summarizes changes made to the imputation routine used for health insurance data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The Census Bureau updated the imputation method to address issues identified in previous research. The new routine improves estimates by removing restrictions, considering public coverage first, and including it in private coverage imputation. Analysis found the new routine attributed 1.5 million more people with coverage, mainly dependents. While an improvement, full supplement imputations still undercount private coverage to some degree.
Coverage and Access to Care for Children with Chronic Health Conditions in th...soder145
The document discusses how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) improved insurance coverage and access to care for children with pre-existing conditions. It finds that after the ACA, adolescents (12-17 years) with chronic health conditions were less likely to be uninsured or delay/forgo care due to cost. However, similar improvements were not seen for younger children. This represents an early estimate as the 2010 ACA mandate lacked community rating provisions to limit premium costs for families of chronically ill children.
Presentation by Jessica S. Banthin, CBO’s Deputy Assistant Director for Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis, to the National Advisory Council, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
Medicaid expansion discrepancies between the Lewin report and Evergreenakame2015
Representative Liz Vazquez has compiled information showing dramatic differences between two reports projecting the costs of Medicaid expansion in Alaska. The Lewin Group report projected much higher enrollment numbers and costs than the Evergreen Economics report commissioned by the state health department. For example, the Lewin report projected 77.1% higher total state costs between 2016-2020. These discrepancies raise questions about the real costs of expansion that require further review.
Intel - eHealth 2013 - 3rd industry and hit finalAgora Group
The document discusses how the third industrial revolution is transforming healthcare access and quality through increased connectivity and mobility. It notes that industries established over a century are being rearchitected in under a decade due to technologies like smartphones, tablets, wireless networks and cloud computing. This new era of "super-mobile" physicians is driving higher utilization of mobile devices to access patient information and collaborate remotely. The document advocates for identifying collaborative care workflows that could be improved through real-time data sharing and communication enabled by mobile health tools.
Health Care Concerns: Rates and Trends During Health Reformsoder145
1) The document summarizes a panelist's presentation on consumer sentiment toward health reform. It discusses the creation of indices to track consumer confidence in health costs over time and reactions to health reform.
2) Three indices were created based on survey data - the Recent Health Cost Barrier Index, Future Health Cost Concern Index, and a composite RWJF Health Care Confidence Index. The future index appears more sensitive to health reform events.
3) While the reform debate has not shifted confidence levels overall, the importance of reform varies by demographics and is seen as very or somewhat important by a majority of respondents from April 2009 to May 2010.
The Economic Impact of the Arizona Biosciences SectorFlinnFoundation
A new Battelle analysis of Arizona’s emerging bioscience sector, commissioned by the Flinn Foundation, reveals that it has a multibillion-dollar annual economic impact and generates hundreds of millions of dollars in yearly state and local taxes.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 12, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several locations. It notes the data sources and modeling approaches used, and explains features on graphs showing cumulative cases, deaths, and daily changes over time. Updates are typically provided daily with commentary intended to be apolitical.
Proposed requirements of the management dashboard at the national levelarmabadi
This document proposes requirements for a national-level Covid-19 management dashboard. It recommends a strategic dashboard containing high-level metrics and a tactical dashboard providing more up-to-date information. The suggested dashboard would include sections on the global Covid-19 situation and forecasts using statistical data and categorized news, as well as the internal situation and forecasts covering healthcare system status, the epidemic situation and forecasts, feedback on control measures, and the national macroeconomic outlook. Key performance indicators are outlined for each section. The goal is to help decision-makers track the epidemic and make data-driven decisions.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 11, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and models used are described, including future case projections based on a Gompertz function and death projections based on log-linear regression. Locations analyzed are explained. Updates are typically provided daily except Sundays, though clinical duties may cause delays. Figures and their elements are explained.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 14, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and in several locations. It summarizes the data sources and models used in the analysis. The analysis is updated daily, except Sundays, by a Stanford anesthesiologist based on available data to understand the trajectory of the pandemic.
A look at two different Datasets (infection data & mobility data to make some predictions about Corona Virus. The main takeaways:
1. Without a vaccine Corona is here to stay for 18 months till herd immunity. We need to have cyclical lockdowns of 2 weeks lockdown 6 weeks opening.
2. The structure of a city dictates whether a lockdown works or not. Rural and Nature heavy cities like Utah can't follow the same strategy like NY or Manhattan.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 10, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including future projections based on mathematical functions fitted to past data. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic impact. Updates are typically provided daily with potential delays due to clinical responsibilities.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 13, 2020Steve Shafer
1) This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses conducted by Dr. Steven Shafer. It outlines the models, data sources, and locations used for the projections.
2) Key details include that the R code is publicly available on GitHub, projections are based on Gompertz and log-linear regression models, and locations were chosen based on family/friends or significance.
3) Disclaimers note that the analysis is independent and meant to be apolitical, and may be delayed due to Dr. Shafer's clinical responsibilities.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 3, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several specific locations. It outlines the models, data sources, and methodology used for the analysis and projections. Updates are typically provided daily with commentary on trends and changes in case and death numbers.
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has
held till now (67 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend
had set in followed by a plateau and a slow decline post the Diwali spike
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are plateauing/declining now
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a plateau/slow decline
Implications of the Affordable Care Act: Medicaid Expansion for Health Care A...soder145
This document summarizes a study on the implications of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act. The study analyzed data on low-income uninsured and Medicaid-enrolled adults to: 1) understand the health care needs of those who could gain Medicaid and 2) estimate how well Medicaid would meet their needs. The results suggest those gaining Medicaid would have large reductions in access problems but still face barriers, as Medicaid enrollees had higher emergency department use than the uninsured. The estimates help inform expectations for Medicaid expansion, but have limitations from differences between current and new enrollees.
This document discusses physician shortages in New York State, particularly regarding OB/GYNs. It summarizes that while New York has a high number of OB/GYNs, they are not evenly distributed across counties. Some counties have no OB/GYNs at all. It then analyzes the relationship between the population-weighted availability of OB/GYNs at the county level and various birth outcomes like infant mortality, low birthweight, and birth defects. Through statistical analysis while controlling for risk factors, the document finds that the local presence of OB/GYNs has little effect on birth outcomes.
Town Hall Meeting, hosted by Congressman Jim Moran, Alexandria, VA July 28, 2008
Presented by:
David M. Walker, President and CEO, The Peter G. Peterson Foundation and Former Comptroller General of the United States
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 8, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several specific locations. It notes the data sources and modeling approaches used, and includes caveats about the analysis being non-confidential and apolitical. Graphs and charts are included to illustrate current case and death trends.
The document discusses how the US healthcare system is currently pre-industrial and will undergo disruption through industrialization. It argues that healthcare costs are unsustainably high and increasing faster than wages or inflation. As consumers face higher deductibles and premiums, consumerism will drive changes in the system. The document also notes several problems including the instability of Medicare and Medicaid funding, an aging population increasing demand, and significant issues with patient safety. It believes elements of value-based care and payment reform show signs of an emerging industrialized, more efficient healthcare model in the US.
The High Performing FQHC of Tomorrow: Expanding the Mission Through MarginSage Growth Partners
This document summarizes a presentation given at the NACHC Conference FOM/IT on October 28, 2015 about the high-performing Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC) of the future. It discusses major trends like rising healthcare costs, the shift to value-based care, and Medicaid reform that are drawing FQHCs into the changing healthcare economy. It provides examples of FQHCs partnering with Accountable Care Organizations and payers. The presentation argues that FQHCs should embrace transparency, pursue value-based payment opportunities, and actively manage patient populations to succeed in this new environment while continuing their mission.
This document summarizes changes made to the imputation routine used for health insurance data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC). The Census Bureau updated the imputation method to address issues identified in previous research. The new routine improves estimates by removing restrictions, considering public coverage first, and including it in private coverage imputation. Analysis found the new routine attributed 1.5 million more people with coverage, mainly dependents. While an improvement, full supplement imputations still undercount private coverage to some degree.
Coverage and Access to Care for Children with Chronic Health Conditions in th...soder145
The document discusses how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) improved insurance coverage and access to care for children with pre-existing conditions. It finds that after the ACA, adolescents (12-17 years) with chronic health conditions were less likely to be uninsured or delay/forgo care due to cost. However, similar improvements were not seen for younger children. This represents an early estimate as the 2010 ACA mandate lacked community rating provisions to limit premium costs for families of chronically ill children.
Presentation by Jessica S. Banthin, CBO’s Deputy Assistant Director for Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis, to the National Advisory Council, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.
Medicaid expansion discrepancies between the Lewin report and Evergreenakame2015
Representative Liz Vazquez has compiled information showing dramatic differences between two reports projecting the costs of Medicaid expansion in Alaska. The Lewin Group report projected much higher enrollment numbers and costs than the Evergreen Economics report commissioned by the state health department. For example, the Lewin report projected 77.1% higher total state costs between 2016-2020. These discrepancies raise questions about the real costs of expansion that require further review.
Intel - eHealth 2013 - 3rd industry and hit finalAgora Group
The document discusses how the third industrial revolution is transforming healthcare access and quality through increased connectivity and mobility. It notes that industries established over a century are being rearchitected in under a decade due to technologies like smartphones, tablets, wireless networks and cloud computing. This new era of "super-mobile" physicians is driving higher utilization of mobile devices to access patient information and collaborate remotely. The document advocates for identifying collaborative care workflows that could be improved through real-time data sharing and communication enabled by mobile health tools.
Health Care Concerns: Rates and Trends During Health Reformsoder145
1) The document summarizes a panelist's presentation on consumer sentiment toward health reform. It discusses the creation of indices to track consumer confidence in health costs over time and reactions to health reform.
2) Three indices were created based on survey data - the Recent Health Cost Barrier Index, Future Health Cost Concern Index, and a composite RWJF Health Care Confidence Index. The future index appears more sensitive to health reform events.
3) While the reform debate has not shifted confidence levels overall, the importance of reform varies by demographics and is seen as very or somewhat important by a majority of respondents from April 2009 to May 2010.
The Economic Impact of the Arizona Biosciences SectorFlinnFoundation
A new Battelle analysis of Arizona’s emerging bioscience sector, commissioned by the Flinn Foundation, reveals that it has a multibillion-dollar annual economic impact and generates hundreds of millions of dollars in yearly state and local taxes.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 12, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several locations. It notes the data sources and modeling approaches used, and explains features on graphs showing cumulative cases, deaths, and daily changes over time. Updates are typically provided daily with commentary intended to be apolitical.
Proposed requirements of the management dashboard at the national levelarmabadi
This document proposes requirements for a national-level Covid-19 management dashboard. It recommends a strategic dashboard containing high-level metrics and a tactical dashboard providing more up-to-date information. The suggested dashboard would include sections on the global Covid-19 situation and forecasts using statistical data and categorized news, as well as the internal situation and forecasts covering healthcare system status, the epidemic situation and forecasts, feedback on control measures, and the national macroeconomic outlook. Key performance indicators are outlined for each section. The goal is to help decision-makers track the epidemic and make data-driven decisions.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 11, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and models used are described, including future case projections based on a Gompertz function and death projections based on log-linear regression. Locations analyzed are explained. Updates are typically provided daily except Sundays, though clinical duties may cause delays. Figures and their elements are explained.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 14, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and in several locations. It summarizes the data sources and models used in the analysis. The analysis is updated daily, except Sundays, by a Stanford anesthesiologist based on available data to understand the trajectory of the pandemic.
A look at two different Datasets (infection data & mobility data to make some predictions about Corona Virus. The main takeaways:
1. Without a vaccine Corona is here to stay for 18 months till herd immunity. We need to have cyclical lockdowns of 2 weeks lockdown 6 weeks opening.
2. The structure of a city dictates whether a lockdown works or not. Rural and Nature heavy cities like Utah can't follow the same strategy like NY or Manhattan.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 10, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses. It notes that the analysis is conducted independently and aims to be apolitical. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including future projections based on mathematical functions fitted to past data. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic impact. Updates are typically provided daily with potential delays due to clinical responsibilities.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 13, 2020Steve Shafer
1) This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 projections and analyses conducted by Dr. Steven Shafer. It outlines the models, data sources, and locations used for the projections.
2) Key details include that the R code is publicly available on GitHub, projections are based on Gompertz and log-linear regression models, and locations were chosen based on family/friends or significance.
3) Disclaimers note that the analysis is independent and meant to be apolitical, and may be delayed due to Dr. Shafer's clinical responsibilities.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 3, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and for several specific locations. It outlines the models, data sources, and methodology used for the analysis and projections. Updates are typically provided daily with commentary on trends and changes in case and death numbers.
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1281 on 15th September. This peak has
held till now (67 days)
• Deaths/Day have crossed 1000 on only 1 day after 3rd October. Declining trend
had set in followed by a plateau and a slow decline post the Diwali spike
• New/Active cases have also peaked and were declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
• Both New and Active cases are plateauing/declining now
• Likely trend in Deaths/Day for the next 30 days is a plateau/slow decline
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 22, 2020 Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections globally and in several locations. It summarizes data sources and models used in the analysis. Updates are typically provided daily, with some delays possible due to the author's clinical responsibilities. Charts and figures with daily case, death, and testing data are analyzed to identify trends and project trajectories. Partisan lean is included as a metric to help understand outbreaks.
Taggert J. Brooks, PhD, Professor and Chair of Economics at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, presented on the local economics of COVID-19. The presentation covered the current state of the virus and timeline, the economic policy response through monetary and fiscal actions, and reopening plans. It showed data on rising unemployment claims in La Crosse County and discussed the short and long-term local economic impacts. The presentation concluded that a return to normalcy will require a vaccine, improved treatment options, herd immunity, or expanded testing and contact tracing.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): August 4, 2020Steve Shafer
The document provides an analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections in various locations around the world. It includes 7 figures showing trends in cases, deaths, and other metrics over time for locations like the USA, Western Europe, and other countries. The analysis is updated daily and provides a concise overview of the current global and regional situation.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 19, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 analyses and projections. It notes that the analyses are conducted independently and aim to be apolitical. Daily updates are typically provided, though may be delayed due to clinical responsibilities. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including using a Gompertz function to model case growth and log-linear regression for deaths. Locations are selected based on factors like family/friends or economic importance.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 21, 2020 Steve Shafer
This document provides context and explanations for COVID-19 analyses and projections. It notes that the analyses are conducted independently and without political bias. Data sources and modeling approaches are described, including future case projections based on a Gompertz function and death projections based on log-linear regression. Locations analyzed are chosen based on relevance to friends, family, news or economics. Updates are typically provided daily with possible delays due to clinical responsibilities.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 23, 2020 Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections worldwide and in several locations. It summarizes data sources and models used in the analysis. Updates are typically provided daily, with some delays possible due to the author's clinical responsibilities. Charts and graphs are included to illustrate trends in cases, deaths, and other metrics over time and comparisons between locations.
The document discusses developing a tool to predict daily COVID-19 cases at the county level in the US. It describes using time series forecasting techniques like ARIMA and LSTM neural networks on COVID case data. The solution aims to help allocate medical resources and guide policy decisions. Validation shows the ARIMA and LSTM models achieve low error in predictions. Additional analysis identifies the top 5 states expected to be most affected by April 2021 based on infection rates and growth trends. A vaccination strategy is proposed to optimize costs and minimize new cases based on priority groups. Further exploring transport/mobility data and population diversity is suggested to improve the model.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 18, 2020Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and projections worldwide and in several locations. It summarizes data sources and models used in the analysis. Updates are typically provided daily, with some delays possible due to the author's clinical responsibilities. Charts and graphs presented on different slides provide current case and death numbers, projected trajectories, and comparisons between locations.
COVID-19 Update (Summary): September 25, 2020 Steve Shafer
This document provides an overview and analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths globally and in several specific locations. It outlines the models, data sources, and methodology used to generate projections and summaries. Updates are typically provided daily, with some delays possible due to the author's clinical responsibilities. Interactive visualizations of the epidemiological data are available online.
The document discusses strategies for ending the COVID-19 pandemic and preventing future health emergencies in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region. It notes that while tools and knowledge exist, lessons from the current pandemic have not been fully implemented. It outlines challenges including ongoing transmission, inequitable vaccine distribution, and future pandemic risks. Opportunities discussed include regional response coordination, existing disease surveillance and lab systems, and vaccine rollout successes. The document proposes actions like strengthening governance, integrating preparedness into health systems, expanding testing and sequencing, ensuring financing, and adopting a "One Health" approach to prevent future spillovers.
Similar to Coronavirus pandemic public health - lessons in mathematics (20)
Truth how texas and houston compare to new yorkJames Orr
June 14, 2020 Much In News About Growth In Cases In Houston, and Texas. This presents data that shows superior statistics for Houston and Texas versus New York State and New York City. Number (and rates per 100,000 Population) need t o compare Houston now to New York City in four to six weeks after reopening.
Covid 19 cases per day per 100,000 popylation 5-15-2020James Orr
More weekly update. Focused on average new cases per week, change in cases per week, and average new cases per week per 100,000 population. Provides graphs on six "no doing well states" and detail data in tabular form on all states
Coronavirus data focused on new york comparison and data per populationJames Orr
Continues my weekly report. This focus on (new cases per day) per 100,000 population. Uses a nine day moving average (to remove day to day effects over the week). All states compare to New York State with highest 50 new cases per day per 100K. For states who are at very low levels, also show data for that state with both 0 to 60 scale (with New York) and 0 to 5 cases per day per 100K scale.
Us coronavirus data as of may 1, 2020 just dataJames Orr
170 pages this week, but just data on Coronavirus cases in US by state.
Includes the best measure found so far -- Average weekly new cases per day per 100,000 population
Page 4 – 8 are alphabetical by state total cases, max cases per day, 4-24 to 5/1 average cases per day, plus normalized by 100,000 population. Has which 3 charts numbers for detail data per state
Pages 9 – 13 are from state with the highest cases per 100,000 population (New York) to least (Montana). Also shows average new cases per day per 100,000 population in descending order.
Page 14 has distributions of cases/100,000 and new cases per day per 100,000. Also shows the ration of weekly new cases 4/24 to 5/1 divided maximum weekly new case.
Note that for 21 states (and Total US, and District of Columba) had the maximum weekly new cases during 4/24 to 5/1
Predicting coronavirus cases and questions need answeringJames Orr
Another weekend, and another attempt to make sense out of the Coronavirus Case data from states in the United States. Overall, cases per day remain flat (on plateau) with no decline in data. However, other indications suggest increasing irrelevant to use new cases per day for social policy decisions. Indication that new hospitalizations per day might be a better measure.
Criteria to begin relaxing social distancing revision AJames Orr
Latest weekly update (on weekend) of my projection of the number of Coronavirus case per day by state. Prior predictions modeled following three weeks. Mode VII two weeks ago and Model IX on week ago appear as accurate as randomness in data allows, or new pockets of outbreaks. This version looks at where states are at plateauing or being pose peak new cases per day. Also looks at criteria to begin to relax social distancing guidelines. Revision A corrects Alaska (missing a 0) and Nevada population (one extra 0).
Measuring the effect of social distancing On CoronavirusJames Orr
This was an attempt to see if I could measure the effect of social distancing. While the method is immature, it definitely shows that movement into regions by infectious persons is defeating "social distancing" in most areas. Only New York and Washington show progress. Texas "social distancing" appears overwhelmed by movement of new infectious persons into Texas
04/05/2020. The United States looks for signs that new Coronavirus Cases per day has started to decrease. We may be close, but not there yet. This presentation looks at changes in Case for United States and a few states. It looks at Cases versus date, first derivative (Growth In Cases Per Day) and finally the second delivery (which show how rapidly the growth per day is decreasing).
Orr's model vii projection of cases to 4 16-2020 created 04-03-2020James Orr
Updated with Model VII which has a much sharper decrease in Case Growth Per Day. Model VII achieves peak New Cases per Day within the two week project, while Model VI New Cases continues to grow over the 14 days.
Orr's model vi projection of cases to 4 16-2020 created 04-03-2020James Orr
This is the latest weekly update of my projection of Coronavirus Cases over the next fourteen days. Projection two weeks ago was too low (assumed control of spread). Projection on week ago assumed no change in Growth Rate % of cases per day. This version used trend in Growth Rate % cases per day to extrapolate reducing Growth Rate per day over the next 14 days. This should be much more accurate if continued progress in "social distancing" occurs.
Latest Projection Of Cases By State For Next 15 Day.
Average growth abut 30 % per day (expect to be lower).
Uses average growth per day from 3-21 to 3-28 to project ahead 14 days.
Coronavirus cases by state - projections for growther from 03-21-2020 to 04-...James Orr
The document provides a projection of coronavirus cases in the United States from March 22, 2020 to April 21, 2020 using a model (Model IV) developed by James K. Orr. It projects the maximum number of cases for each US state over this time period based on current case numbers as of March 21, 2020 and average daily growth rates over the previous 3 days for each state. It notes that the projections provide an optimistic scenario that depends on actions by governments and mercy from God. Tables with projections for each state are also included.
Coronavirus case growth by country j.k.orr 2020 03-07James Orr
An attempt to model growth of the Coronavirus case growth in a country from the time the total cases reach 225 cases for the next 10 days. Model is ONLY VALID for these 10 days. Model is dependent that data provided by countries are accurate. Raw data from Mainland China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran as of 3/6/2020.
2018 is year to consider conversions of tax deferred funds to rothJames Orr
With the 2018 tax law changes, converting tax-deferred savings into Roth IRAs is advantageous for those who can pay the income taxes. For individuals on Medicare, there are income thresholds that impact Medicare premium costs that must be considered when deciding how much to convert. Converting just under the $267,000 threshold may be best for married couples expecting to complete conversions while both are alive. For those needing access to funds sooner, determining the optimal strategy can be more complicated.
Effect of tax cut and job act for couples over 65James Orr
Captures some of my analysis of the effect of Thrump's "Tax Cut and Job Act" on my strategy for managing my pre-tax IRA funds. Specially written for couples over 65 on Medicare due to the effect of Gross Taxable Income on both federal income tax and Medicare Premiums. Identifies general tax planning strategies and also identifies a largely unaddressed risk, which is effect of change in income tax filing status when a spouse dies (from "Married Filing Jointly" to filing as "Single").
The mythical 100 flood plain Houston Texas 2017James Orr
Data is shown for one location in south Harris County (Clear Creek at I-45) where two near "1000 year floods" based on Harris County Flood Warning System 100 year flood, 500 year flood data within 40 years (in 1979 and 2017)
Hurricane harvey Impact On Houston Rainfall and Water DepthJames Orr
Screen prints of selected data from Harris County Flood Control District. There are rain gauges and stream depth gauges through out Harris and surrounding counties. Data was captured to show impacts in several areas including the Clear Creek Watershed near NASA's Johnson Space Center.
Software Reliability For Engineers - J.K.Orr 2015-09-23James Orr
This document describes a simplified engineering approach for computing software reliability that was developed for and applied to the Space Shuttle Primary Avionics Software System (PASS). The approach models the software as uniform layers representing releases. It computes reliability estimates based on failure data for each layer over time. The approach was found to more accurately predict reliability than a complex statistical model. The key advantages are that it accounts for changes in reliability characteristics over time due to process improvements and can estimate reliability prior to failures occurring based on relative size of software releases.
This particular slides consist of- what is hypotension,what are it's causes and it's effect on body, risk factors, symptoms,complications, diagnosis and role of physiotherapy in it.
This slide is very helpful for physiotherapy students and also for other medical and healthcare students.
Here is the summary of hypotension:
Hypotension, or low blood pressure, is when the pressure of blood circulating in the body is lower than normal or expected. It's only a problem if it negatively impacts the body and causes symptoms. Normal blood pressure is usually between 90/60 mmHg and 120/80 mmHg, but pressures below 90/60 are generally considered hypotensive.
PET CT beginners Guide covers some of the underrepresented topics in PET CTMiadAlsulami
This lecture briefly covers some of the underrepresented topics in Molecular imaging with cases , such as:
- Primary pleural tumors and pleural metastases.
- Distinguishing between MPM and Talc Pleurodesis.
- Urological tumors.
- The role of FDG PET in NET.
Exploring the Benefits of Binaural Hearing: Why Two Hearing Aids Are Better T...Ear Solutions (ESPL)
Binaural hearing using two hearing aids instead of one offers numerous advantages, including improved sound localization, enhanced sound quality, better speech understanding in noise, reduced listening effort, and greater overall satisfaction. By leveraging the brain’s natural ability to process sound from both ears, binaural hearing aids provide a more balanced, clear, and comfortable hearing experience. If you or a loved one is considering hearing aids, consult with a hearing care professional at Ear Solutions hearing aid clinic in Mumbai to explore the benefits of binaural hearing and determine the best solution for your hearing needs. Embracing binaural hearing can lead to a richer, more engaging auditory experience and significantly improve your quality of life.
Gemma Wean- Nutritional solution for Artemiasmuskaan0008
GEMMA Wean is a high end larval co-feeding and weaning diet aimed at Artemia optimisation and is fortified with a high level of proteins and phospholipids. GEMMA Wean provides the early weaned juveniles with dedicated fish nutrition and is an ideal follow on from GEMMA Micro or Artemia.
GEMMA Wean has an optimised nutritional balance and physical quality so that it flows more freely and spreads readily on the water surface. The balance of phospholipid classes to- gether with the production technology based on a low temperature extrusion process improve the physical aspect of the pellets while still retaining the high phospholipid content.
GEMMA Wean is available in 0.1mm, 0.2mm and 0.3mm. There is also a 0.5mm micro-pellet, GEMMA Wean Diamond, which covers the early nursery stage from post-weaning to pre-growing.
The facial nerve, also known as cranial nerve VII, is one of the 12 cranial nerves originating from the brain. It's a mixed nerve, meaning it contains both sensory and motor fibres, and it plays a crucial role in controlling various facial muscles, as well as conveying sensory information from the taste buds on the anterior two-thirds of the tongue.
The best massage spa Ajman is Chandrima Spa Ajman, which was founded in 2023 and is exclusively for men 24 hours a day. As of right now, our parent firm has been providing massage services to over 50,000+ clients in Ajman for the past 10 years. It has about 8+ branches. This demonstrates that Chandrima Spa Ajman is among the most reasonably priced spas in Ajman and the ideal place to unwind and rejuvenate. We provide a wide range of Spa massage treatments, including Indian, Pakistani, Kerala, Malayali, and body-to-body massages. Numerous massage techniques are available, including deep tissue, Swedish, Thai, Russian, and hot stone massages. Our massage therapists produce genuinely unique treatments that generate a revitalized sense of inner serenely by fusing modern techniques, the cleanest natural substances, and traditional holistic therapists.
2024 HIPAA Compliance Training Guide to the Compliance OfficersConference Panel
Join us for a comprehensive 90-minute lesson designed specifically for Compliance Officers and Practice/Business Managers. This 2024 HIPAA Training session will guide you through the critical steps needed to ensure your practice is fully prepared for upcoming audits. Key updates and significant changes under the Omnibus Rule will be covered, along with the latest applicable updates for 2024.
Key Areas Covered:
Texting and Email Communication: Understand the compliance requirements for electronic communication.
Encryption Standards: Learn what is necessary and what is overhyped.
Medical Messaging and Voice Data: Ensure secure handling of sensitive information.
IT Risk Factors: Identify and mitigate risks related to your IT infrastructure.
Why Attend:
Expert Instructor: Brian Tuttle, with over 20 years in Health IT and Compliance Consulting, brings invaluable experience and knowledge, including insights from over 1000 risk assessments and direct dealings with Office of Civil Rights HIPAA auditors.
Actionable Insights: Receive practical advice on preparing for audits and avoiding common mistakes.
Clarity on Compliance: Clear up misconceptions and understand the reality of HIPAA regulations.
Ensure your compliance strategy is up-to-date and effective. Enroll now and be prepared for the 2024 HIPAA audits.
Enroll Now to secure your spot in this crucial training session and ensure your HIPAA compliance is robust and audit-ready.
https://conferencepanel.com/conference/hipaa-training-for-the-compliance-officer-2024-updates
Joker Wigs has been a one-stop-shop for hair products for over 26 years. We provide high-quality hair wigs, hair extensions, hair toppers, hair patch, and more for both men and women.
Michigan HealthTech Market Map 2024. Includes 7 categories: Policy Makers, Academic Innovation Centers, Digital Health Providers, Healthcare Providers, Payers / Insurance, Device Companies, Life Science Companies, Innovation Accelerators. Developed by the Michigan-Israel Business Accelerator
DR SHAMIN EABENSON - JOURNAL CLUB - NEEDLE STICK INJURY
Coronavirus pandemic public health - lessons in mathematics
1. A Lesson In Mathematics
A Lesson Is Risk Assessment
The Coronavirus Pandemic
James K. Orr
A Gift To My Granddaughter
March 14, 2020
2. Disclaimers
This presentation is:
• Targeted to a mathematically literate 13 year
old.
• The is a lesson in risk assessment and risk
management packaged within a tutorial in
mathematics
• If you are reading this and do not understand
the math, just listen to your public health
authorities for direction.
3. Teaching Risk Assessment
In “Out of Control” Times
• For a typical 13 year old on Spring Break in
Houston Texas, messages are overwhelming
shouting “panic”
– Daily reports of rapidly rising coronavirus case, with
cases number “suddenly” alarming growing in the US
– Houston Rodeo abruptly canceled and shut down
– School re-start delayed at least a week
– Travel from all of Europe shut down
– Grocery store shelves bare
– Stock Market in record plunge
4. A Grandfather’s Assessment
Exactly As Expected
• Analysis of case per day in Mainland China, South Korea, Italy,
and Iran established a solid model for expected case growth
over next two weeks on March 7, 2020.
• https://www.slideshare.net/JamesOrr4/coronavirus-case-growth-by-country-jkorr-2020-0307
• Case growth would reach public (and investor) panic
levels in the following week (just simple mathematics).
• Worldwide, in Washington state, New York state and
Houston, coronavirus cases numbers grew as expected
• Houston, Texas taking early, appropriate Public Health
measures in face of early reports of cases from
returning international travelers and later intra-United
States travelers (in specific to California).
5. United States Coronavirus Risks
# Description Qualitative Risk
1
U.S. Medical System Collapse Due To
Cases
Very High
2
U.S. Medical Staff Simultaneously
Infected
High
3
Total Number of Individuals Infected
and Unable To Work Causes Inability To
Produce and Distribute
Medium
4 Death of Patients at High Risk Medium
5 Loss of paycheck due to work absence High
6 Bankruptcy for individual companies Low
7 Effect on typical Patient if infected Low
6. Public Health Roles (1 of 2)
• Federal and state government
– Receive advice from Public Health professionals,
weight risks and what the public will accept, and
make best case trades between available actions
• Public Health Professionals
– Protect the health of the overall population
– Protect the health care system ability to function
– Provide advice on public health mitigations to
minimize the rate of spread of coronavirus cases
7. Public Health Roles (2 of 2)
• Medical Care Professionals
– Treat patients
– Keep self well (if Doctors are sick, no one to help)
• High Risk General Public
– Pay maximum heed to advice to minimize
exposure
• Low Risk General Public
– Per direction from Public Health, take as drastic
measures to avoid spreading the disease
8. Public Health Mitigation
The goal of community mitigation, (1) delay outbreak peak (2)
decompress peak burden on healthcare, known as flattening the
curve (3) diminish overall cases and health impact.[203][204]
Source: Consistently Reliable: Reference 1
9. Qualitative Risk Assessment
• What is the expected rate of new cases?
• What are the sources of the new cases?
• What are possible Public Health Measures that
can be implements to slow the growth of new
cases?
• What Public Health Measure will the general
public be willing to tolerate and agree to follow
as directed
• What Public Health Measures will the
government be willing to implement and enforce
including with physical police actions
10. Quantitative Risk Assessment
• What Quantifiable Information Is Needed?
– With Current Public Health Measures
implemented
• Total Cases By Day (which implies new Cases Per Day)
• Percent of Low Risk Public
• Percent of High Risk Public expected to die if infected
with coronavirus.
• Number of available hospital beds
– Bottom Line: Define a Critical Metric
• Percent of Beds Needed By Hospitalized Coronavirus
Patients
11. Mathematical Tutorial
• Growth of coronavirus cases can be approximated by a
simple model of growth as percent of current cases
each day
• The next two pages illustrate this with use of Microsoft
Excel functions.
– First case uses brute force numerical integration and then
show how this can be approximately reversed for number
of day for total case ratio
• This is a method later used when growth per day is not constant
– Second case generalizes to function that can be used to
assess exactly number of days to a certain growth for
constant percent growth in prior cases per day
12. Brute Force Numerical Integration
Just Counter
Input - B2
(B2 is cell #)
=INT(C2*(1+B2)) =C2-C1
Input - E2
(E2 is cell #)
Input - F2
(F2 is cell #)
=1/LN(1.5) =G2*LN(E2/F2)
Just Counter Constant y=x*(1+constant)
difference of
current and
prior ys
Input y Constant 225 Constant
=constant*(Natural
Log) of (y/225)
Day
Growth Per Day
Percent Per Day
Total Cases Cases Per Day Y A B X
0 50% 225 225 225 2.466303462 0.000
1 50% 337 112 337 225 2.466303462 0.996
2 50% 505 168 505 225 2.466303462 1.994
3 50% 757 252 757 225 2.466303462 2.992
4 50% 1,135 378 1,135 225 2.466303462 3.991
5 50% 1,702 567 1,702 225 2.466303462 4.990
6 50% 2,553 851 2,553 225 2.466303462 5.990
7 50% 3,829 1,276 3,829 225 2.466303462 6.990
8 50% 5,743 1,914 5,743 225 2.466303462 7.990
9 50% 8,614 2,871 8,614 225 2.466303462 8.990
10 50% 12,921 4,307 12,921 225 2.466303462 9.990
Numerical Integration Example
Excel Formula Usage
Reverse Engineer Numerical Integration
Excel Formula Usage
Mathematical Excel Formula Usage
13. Generalizes Function
Input Constant =INT($C$2*(1+$C$3)^($A7)) =BN-B(N-1) =LN($B7/$C$2)/LN(1+$C$3)
Independent
Variable
Computed Parameter Reference Delta
Recreate Independent
Variable From Total Cases
Day Total Cases Cases Per Day Days
0 225 0
1 337 112 1
2 506 169 2
3 759 253 3
4 1,139 380 4
5 1,708 569 5
6 2,562 854 6
7 3,844 1,282 7
8 5,766 1,922 8
9 8,649 2,883 9
10 12,974 4,325 10
Number Of Cases Day 0 - $C$2 225
General Case Using Excel Functions
Growth Per Day, %/Day - $C$3 50%
14. Illustrate No Public Health Measures
• Total hospital beds in United States is 790,000
US hospitals will run out of beds if coronavirus cases spike
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/03/13/us-hospitals-
overwhlemed-coronavirus-cases-result-in-too-few-beds/5002942002/
• The United States had 2092 cases on March
13,2020
• 81 % Cases Mild, Only 19 % need hospital bed
• 1/3 beds available now
• 2/3 needed beds put hospital in severe stress
15. No Public Health Measures
20 % Per Day Case Growth
Number Of Cases Day 225
Growth Per Day, 20%
=INT($C$2*(1+$C$3)^($A7)) =LN($B7/$C$2)/LN(1+$C$3)
Computed Parameter
Recreate Independent
Variable From Total Cases
Total Cases Days
225 0 Reference
2,092 12 3/13/2020
1,385,789 48 4/17/2020
2,766,842 52 4/21/2020
General Case Using Excel Functions
Date
16. No Public Health Measures
50 % Per Day Case Growth
Number Of Cases Day 225
Growth Per Day, 50%
=INT($C$2*(1+$C$3)^($A7)) =LN($B7/$C$2)/LN(1+$C$3)
Computed Parameter
Recreate Independent
Variable From Total Cases
Total Cases Days
225 0 Reference
2,092 5 3/13/2020
1,385,789 22 3/29/2020
2,766,842 23 3/30/2020
Date
18. No Public Health Measures
KEY MESSAGE
With No Change In Growth
Rate, System is
overwhelmed once 1/3
hospital Beds filled
19. Need Public Health Measures
• The above illustration shows dramatically that
drastic Public Health Measures are needed.
• We have longer term examples from four
countries where longer Term health measures
were implemented.
• Consistent pattern is that the percent of new
cases per day drops steadily.
• Next, lets look at data to see what this drop
looks like over time.
20. In Search Of Data
KEY MESSAGE
With Public Health
Measures, US growth
per day should match
Model III values
25. Current Public Health Measures
• May Not Be Adequate To Drive Case Growth
Rate to the Model III levels
• Due to the multiple geographic dispersed
clusters of cases, the “single country model”
may not match future data. There may be a
need to model each outbreak area separately
and add to total for United States
• Public Health Measured Needed NOW
26. Consistently Reliable
1. 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, updated
constantly
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic
2.Coronavirus Case Growth Per Day After A
Country Reaches 225 Cases, March 7, 2020
– https://www.slideshare.net/JamesOrr4/coronavirus-case-growth-by-country-jkorr-2020-0307
3.Exponential Function
– https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_function
27. Gather Relevant Data
US hospitals will run out of beds if coronavirus cases spike
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/03/13/us-hospitals-overwhlemed-coronavirus-
cases-result-in-too-few-beds/5002942002/
Ignore the attention grabbing. Hard facts::
• US Has 790,000 hospital beds
• Normally about 2/3 of the beds are in use at any one time
2019–20 coronavirus pandemic
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic
This has been a rigorously consistent source. Information is the best available from government health
services.
• 81 % cases Mild
• 14 % cases Severe
• 5 % cases Critical