Weekly update of my modeled projection of the Coronavirus in the United States.

1. Orr’s Model IV – March 21, 2020
James K. Orr
Latest Projection Of Coronavirus Cases In United States
Projection over 3/22/2020 to 4/21/2020

2. Coronavirus Update One Week Later
• This will be my third update.
• First looked at trend in the first ten days after The United States reached 225
cases.
• https://www.slideshare.net/JamesOrr4/coronavirus-case-growth-by-country-jkorr-2020-0307
• Second look at “best case” if the United States was able to follow the example
of South Korea
• https://www.slideshare.net/JamesOrr4/coronavirus-pandemic-public-health-lessons-in-
mathematics-230271030
• This has not been the case as cases from other countries (especially Europe) flooded our country
and then inter-state transfer from areas such as Washington State, California, and more recently
New York.
• This presentation is low on “theory” as both wait for as I wait another week on
more data on coronavirus by U.S. State.

3. • A week ago a very, very upbeat projection assuming virus growth
followed South Korea’s example.
• Unfortunately, that hope has failed as increasingly bad news came out
of Italy and all of Europe.
• Given another’s week of data, and clearing trends for New York,
Washington State, and California, I have updated with a new model
that projects each state separately based on the current (at end of
03/21/2020) number of cases and the average case growth rate per
day over the last three days.
• This remains a highly optimistic prediction ….. But depends on actions
by national and state governments….. And God’s mercy.

4. Estimate for United State Of Americs

5. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
State Region
Maximum Cases
Actual Through
3/21/2020
Growth Over 3 Days
03/18 to 03/21
Pecent
Maximum Cases
Actual To 4/21/2020
4/21/2020 Cases As
Percent Population
Population
Alabama South 124 37.9% 29,889 0.7% 4,093,000
Alaska West 14 25.0% 1,557 2.1% 73,545
Arizona West 104 51.6% 25,068 0.3% 7,279,000
Arkansas West 118 53.9% 28,443 0.9% 3,017,000
California West 1,200 19.3% 25,845 0.1% 39,512,000
Colorado West 476 27.1% 40,508 0.7% 5,759,000
Connecticut Northeast 223 35.9% 29,439 0.8% 3,565,000
Delaware Northeast 45 30.7% 5,941 0.6% 974,000
District of Columbia Northeast 98 35.9% 12,937 1.8% 706,000
Florida South 658 32.7% 86,864 0.4% 21,477,000
Georgia South 507 36.9% 66,931 0.6% 10,671,000
Guam Territory 14 18.8% 1,557 0.9% 166,000
Hawaii West 48 37.2% 11,570 0.8% 1,416,000
Idaho West 31 45.3% 7,472 0.4% 1,787,000
Illinois Midwest 753 48.5% 156,272 1.2% 12,672,000
Indiana Midwest 128 41.8% 30,853 0.5% 6,723,000
Iowa Midwest 68 33.6% 16,391 0.5% 3,156,000
Kansas Midwest 55 36.9% 13,257 0.5% 2,913,000

6. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
State Region
Maximum Cases
Actual Through
3/21/2020
Growth Over 3 Days
03/18 to 03/21
Pecent
Maximum Cases
Actual To 4/21/2020
4/21/2020 Cases As
Percent Population
Population
Kentucky South 54 20.3% 1,163 0.0% 4,468,000
Louisiana South 585 31.8% 141,010 3.0% 4,649,000
Maine Northeast 56 15.7% 1,206 0.1% 1,344,000
Maryland Northeast 190 35.4% 45,798 0.8% 6,046,000
Massachusetts Northeast 525 24.9% 11,307 0.2% 6,950,000
Michagan Midwest 787 112.1% 21,822 0.2% 9,884,000
Minnesota Midwest 137 23.1% 2,951 0.1% 5,640,000
Mississippi South 140 68.0% 29,055 1.0% 2,976,000
Missouri Midwest 73 49.3% 17,596 0.3% 6,137,000
Montana West 28 31.6% 582 0.1% 1,067,000
Nebraska Midwest 38 16.5% 818 0.0% 1,934,000
Neveda West 154 41.8% 37,121 0.1% 30,808,000
New Hampshire Northeast 55 22.0% 1,185 0.1% 1,360,000
New Jersey Northeast 1,327 51.0% 319,863 3.6% 8,882,000
New Mexico West 57 25.6% 1,228 0.1% 2,097,000
New York Northeast 10,366 65.9% 3,121,781 16.0% 19,454,000
North Carolina South 184 47.9% 44,352 0.4% 10,488,000

7. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
State Region
Maximum Cases
Actual Through
3/21/2020
Growth Over 3 Days
03/18 to 03/21
Pecent
Maximum Cases
Actual To 4/21/2020
4/21/2020 Cases As
Percent Population
Population
Kentucky South 54 20.3% 1,163 0.0% 4,468,000
Louisiana South 585 31.8% 141,010 3.0% 4,649,000
Maine Northeast 56 15.7% 1,206 0.1% 1,344,000
Maryland Northeast 190 35.4% 45,798 0.8% 6,046,000
Massachusetts Northeast 525 24.9% 11,307 0.2% 6,950,000
Michagan Midwest 787 112.1% 21,822 0.2% 9,884,000
Minnesota Midwest 137 23.1% 2,951 0.1% 5,640,000
Mississippi South 140 68.0% 29,055 1.0% 2,976,000
Missouri Midwest 73 49.3% 17,596 0.3% 6,137,000
Montana West 28 31.6% 582 0.1% 1,067,000
Nebraska Midwest 38 16.5% 818 0.0% 1,934,000
Neveda West 154 41.8% 37,121 0.1% 30,808,000
New Hampshire Northeast 55 22.0% 1,185 0.1% 1,360,000
New Jersey Northeast 1,327 51.0% 319,863 3.6% 8,882,000
New Mexico West 57 25.6% 1,228 0.1% 2,097,000
New York Northeast 10,366 65.9% 3,121,781 16.0% 19,454,000
North Carolina South 184 47.9% 44,352 0.4% 10,488,000

8. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
State Region
Maximum Cases
Actual Through
3/21/2020
Growth Over 3 Days
03/18 to 03/21
Pecent
Maximum Cases
Actual To 4/21/2020
4/21/2020 Cases As
Percent Population
Population
North Dakota Midwest 36 87.3% 6,749 0.9% 782,000
Ohio Midwest 247 38.7% 59,538 0.5% 11,689,000
Oklahoma Midwest 55 37.4% 13,257 0.3% 3,957,000
Oregon West 137 20.6% 2,951 0.1% 4,218,000
Pennsylvania Northeast 374 40.1% 90,150 0.7% 12,802,000
Rhode Island Northeast 66 33.9% 15,909 1.5% 1,059,000
South Carolina South 173 38.8% 41,700 0.8% 5,149,000
South Dakota Midwest 43 6.8% 302 0.0% 885,000
Tennessee South 371 51.6% 89,427 1.3% 6,833,000
Texas South 304 48.6% 73,277 0.2% 29,996,000
Utah West 136 28.1% 2,929 0.1% 3,206,000
Vermont Northeast 47 14.8% 625 0.1% 624,000
Virginia South 152 22.9% 3,274 0.0% 8,535,000
Washington West 1,793 15.4% 38,616 0.5% 7,615,000
West Virginia South 50 86.9% 2,651 0.1% 1,792,000
Wisconsin Midwest 281 40.7% 67,733 1.2% 5,822,000
Wyoming West 52 11.5% 495 0.1% 579,000
Total 23,737 4,899,214 1.4% 348,071,545

9. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
Date Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware
District of
Columbia
Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii
3/19/2020 78 9 44 62 752 277 159 30 71 432 287 8 26
3/20/2020 81 12 63 96 982 363 194 38 77 563 420 14 37
3/21/2020 124 14 104 118 1,200 476 223 45 98 658 507 14 48
3/22/2020 173 17 145 164 1,416 585 307 62 135 906 698 17 67
3/23/2020 239 21 201 228 1,664 717 420 85 184 1,238 954 21 93
3/24/2020 329 26 276 313 1,947 875 570 115 250 1,681 1,295 26 128
3/25/2020 450 32 378 429 2,268 1,063 767 155 337 2,262 1,743 32 174
3/26/2020 611 39 513 582 2,631 1,286 1,023 206 449 3,018 2,325 39 237
3/27/2020 823 48 690 783 3,038 1,550 1,352 273 594 3,989 3,073 48 318
3/28/2020 1,097 58 920 1,044 3,494 1,860 1,768 357 777 5,218 4,020 58 425
3/29/2020 1,450 70 1,216 1,380 4,001 2,223 2,288 462 1,006 6,752 5,202 70 561
3/30/2020 1,897 84 1,591 1,806 4,561 2,645 2,927 591 1,286 8,636 6,654 84 734
3/31/2020 2,455 100 2,059 2,336 5,177 3,135 3,697 746 1,625 10,908 8,405 100 950
4/1/2020 3,140 119 2,634 2,988 5,850 3,699 4,609 930 2,025 13,598 10,478 119 1,216
4/2/2020 3,967 141 3,327 3,775 6,581 4,346 5,665 1,143 2,490 16,715 12,879 141 1,535
4/3/2020 4,945 167 4,147 4,706 7,371 5,085 6,860 1,384 3,015 20,242 15,597 167 1,914
4/4/2020 6,078 196 5,098 5,784 8,218 5,924 8,177 1,650 3,594 24,129 18,592 196 2,353
4/5/2020 7,361 229 6,173 7,004 9,122 6,872 9,625 1,942 4,230 28,399 21,882 229 2,849
4/6/2020 8,774 267 7,359 8,349 10,080 7,937 11,184 2,257 4,915 33,000 25,427 267 3,396
4/7/2020 10,327 310 8,661 9,827 11,088 9,127 12,828 2,589 5,637 37,851 29,165 310 3,997
4/8/2020 12,000 357 10,064 11,419 12,142 10,451 14,521 2,930 6,382 42,847 33,015 357 4,645

10. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
Hawaii Date Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland
Massachusett
s
Michagan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri
26 3/19/2020 422 58 44 34 40 392 52 107 326 334 89 80 28
37 3/20/2020 585 81 45 44 47 480 56 149 413 549 115 140 47
48 3/21/2020 753 128 68 55 54 585 56 190 525 787 137 140 73
67 3/22/2020 1,212 178 95 77 64 815 66 265 620 1,157 162 225 102
93 3/23/2020 1,907 247 131 106 75 1,129 78 367 728 1,550 190 355 141
128 3/24/2020 2,934 340 181 146 88 1,554 91 505 852 1,907 222 545 194
174 3/25/2020 4,407 465 247 200 102 2,125 106 690 992 2,231 259 819 265
237 3/26/2020 6,462 631 335 271 118 2,883 123 936 1,151 2,566 300 1,201 360
318 3/27/2020 9,243 849 451 365 137 3,880 142 1,260 1,329 2,950 347 1,719 484
425 3/28/2020 12,891 1,133 602 487 157 5,177 163 1,682 1,529 3,378 399 2,397 646
561 3/29/2020 17,516 1,497 795 643 180 6,842 187 2,222 1,750 3,851 457 3,257 854
734 3/30/2020 23,174 1,959 1,040 842 205 8,951 213 2,907 1,995 4,371 521 4,309 1,117
950 3/31/2020 29,827 2,534 1,346 1,089 233 11,583 242 3,762 2,265 4,939 591 5,545 1,445
1,216 4/1/2020 37,322 3,241 1,722 1,393 263 14,814 273 4,812 2,559 5,557 668 6,939 1,849
1,535 4/2/2020 45,365 4,095 2,175 1,759 296 18,714 307 6,078 2,879 6,224 751 8,434 2,335
1,914 4/3/2020 53,513 5,104 2,712 2,193 332 23,328 344 7,577 3,225 6,939 841 9,949 2,911
2,353 4/4/2020 62,075 6,274 3,333 2,696 370 28,675 384 9,313 3,595 7,703 938 11,541 3,578
2,849 4/5/2020 70,765 7,598 4,036 3,265 411 34,726 426 11,278 3,991 8,511 1,041 13,157 4,333
3,396 4/6/2020 79,257 9,057 4,811 3,892 454 41,393 470 13,444 4,410 9,362 1,151 14,736 5,165

11. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
Date Montana Nebraska Neveda
New
Hampshire
New Jersey New Mexico New York
North
Carolina
North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania
3/19/2020 16 32 95 44 742 36 4,162 97 19 119 46 88 186
3/20/2020 21 38 109 55 890 43 7,102 137 26 169 51 114 268
3/21/2020 27 38 154 55 1,327 57 10,366 184 28 247 55 137 374
3/22/2020 32 45 215 65 1,849 67 17,000 256 39 344 77 162 521
3/23/2020 37 53 297 76 2,561 79 24,990 355 54 477 106 190 722
3/24/2020 44 62 409 89 3,525 92 34,402 489 74 656 146 222 993
3/25/2020 51 72 559 104 4,819 108 47,034 668 102 897 200 259 1,358
3/26/2020 59 83 759 121 6,540 125 63,825 907 138 1,217 271 300 1,843
3/27/2020 68 96 1,022 139 8,802 144 85,909 1,221 186 1,638 365 347 2,481
3/28/2020 79 111 1,363 160 11,744 166 114,619 1,628 248 2,186 487 399 3,310
3/29/2020 90 127 1,801 183 15,521 190 151,481 2,152 327 2,889 643 457 4,374
3/30/2020 103 144 2,356 209 20,305 217 198,167 2,815 428 3,779 842 521 5,723
3/31/2020 116 164 3,049 237 26,274 246 256,429 3,643 554 4,891 1,089 591 7,405
4/1/2020 132 185 3,900 268 33,605 278 327,972 4,660 709 6,255 1,393 668 9,471
4/2/2020 148 208 4,926 302 42,449 313 414,294 5,886 896 7,901 1,759 751 11,964
4/3/2020 166 233 6,141 338 52,917 350 516,460 7,337 1,117 9,850 2,193 841 14,914
4/4/2020 185 260 7,549 377 65,046 390 634,832 9,019 1,372 12,107 2,696 938 18,332
4/5/2020 205 289 9,141 418 78,771 433 768,782 10,922 1,662 14,662 3,265 1,041 22,201
4/6/2020 227 319 10,897 462 93,895 479 916,388 13,019 1,981 17,477 3,892 1,151 26,463

12. Model IV Projection 3/21/2020 to 4/21/2020
Date Rhode Island
South
Carolina
South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Total US
3/19/2020 44 81 14 154 143 78 22 94 1,376 5 155 18 12,130
3/20/2020 54 125 14 228 194 112 29 114 1,524 8 206 22 17,375
3/21/2020 66 173 14 371 304 136 29 152 1,793 11 281 23 23,613
3/22/2020 92 241 17 517 423 160 34 179 2,116 15 391 27 34,656
3/23/2020 127 334 19 716 587 189 40 211 2,486 21 542 32 48,430
3/24/2020 175 460 23 985 808 221 47 247 2,909 29 746 37 65,361
3/25/2020 240 628 26 1,347 1,104 257 55 287 3,389 40 1,020 43 87,777
3/26/2020 325 853 31 1,828 1,498 298 64 333 3,931 54 1,385 50 117,288
3/27/2020 438 1,148 35 2,461 2,017 344 73 385 4,540 73 1,864 58 155,795
3/28/2020 584 1,531 41 3,283 2,690 396 84 443 5,221 97 2,487 67 205,436
3/29/2020 772 2,023 47 4,339 3,556 453 97 507 5,978 129 3,287 77 268,596
3/30/2020 1,010 2,647 53 5,677 4,652 517 110 578 6,815 168 4,300 87 347,796
3/31/2020 1,307 3,425 60 7,346 6,019 587 125 656 7,735 218 5,564 99 445,538
4/1/2020 1,671 4,381 68 9,395 7,698 663 141 741 8,740 279 7,116 112 564,103
4/2/2020 2,111 5,534 77 11,868 9,725 746 159 834 9,833 352 8,989 126 705,261
4/3/2020 2,632 6,899 86 14,795 12,123 835 178 934 11,013 439 11,206 141 869,941
4/4/2020 3,235 8,480 96 18,185 14,901 931 199 1,041 12,279 539 13,774 158 1,058,906
4/5/2020 3,918 10,269 106 22,023 18,045 1,034 220 1,155 13,630 653 16,680 175 1,270,999
4/6/2020 4,670 12,241 118 26,251 21,510 1,142 244 1,277 15,061 778 19,883 193 1,503,025