04/05/2020. The United States looks for signs that new Coronavirus Cases per day has started to decrease. We may be close, but not there yet. This presentation looks at changes in Case for United States and a few states. It looks at Cases versus date, first derivative (Growth In Cases Per Day) and finally the second delivery (which show how rapidly the growth per day is decreasing).

1. Look At Mathematics of
“Flatten The Curve”
James K. Orr
April 4, 2020

2. Lost Opportunity ???
• Given what has happened with the
Coronavirus Pandemic so far, we are
positioned to reach “maximum new cases per
day” within the next two weeks
• However, it will require appropriate actions by
literally 350,000,000 individuals, thousands of
local governments, 50 state governments, and
the multifaceted federal government.
• Data from the next two weeks will tell.

3. Complexities Of Prediction
• Attempting to predict the number of future
cases by day is made difficult due to:
– Different “social distancing” polices by state
– Unknown inflow of inflected persons to a state
– Unknown number of inflect persons not showing
symptoms
– Inconsistent testing for virus presence
– Different timing to begin to implement “social
distancing” protocols

4. Spread Without Symptoms
• A typical infection spreader follows the traditional steps. He or she
catches a virus but would likely not know about it at this point.
Then as carriers, they each infect people in close proximity,
completely unknowingly. Science is at a consensus that this spread
is usually 2.6 people per person, on an average. Subsequently, the
carrier and ones the infection was spread to show the symptoms
and are taken into quarantine for treatment. But a super-spreader
works a bit differently. A super-spreader also catches the virus or
infection much like everyone else, but unknowingly spreads it to 8
people on an average immediately, as against 2.6 people that
someone else would. If like the Coronavirus, the infection stays in
the body for up to 14 days before showing symptoms, the spread
can continue without the superspreader or anyone in their vicinity
realising it.

5. Introduction To Derivatives

6. New US Cases Versus Date

7. New US Cases Versus Date

8. Total US Cases Versus Date
Exponential Graph

9. Case Growth Per Day
First Derivative of Case Per Day

10. Derivative Of Case Growth Per Day
Second Derivative of Case Per Day

11. The “Good”
Washington State

12. Washington State Cases Versus Date

13. New Washington Cases Versus Date

14. Washington State Cases Versus Date
Exponential Graph

15. Case Growth Per Day
First Derivative of Case Per Day

16. Derivative Of Case Growth Per Day
Second Derivative of Case Per Day

17. The “Bad”
New York State

18. New York State Cases Versus Date

19. New New York Cases Versus Date

20. New York State Cases Versus Date
Exponential Graph

21. Case Growth Per Day
First Derivative of Case Per Day

22. Derivative Of Case Growth Per Day
Second Derivative of Case Per Day

23. The “Bad”
New York State

24. New York State Cases Versus Date

25. New New York Cases Versus Date

26. New York State Cases Versus Date
Exponential Graph

27. Case Growth Per Day
First Derivative of Case Per Day

28. Derivative Of Case Growth Per Day
Second Derivative of Case Per Day