Latest Projection Of Cases By State For Next 15 Day.
Average growth abut 30 % per day (expect to be lower).
Uses average growth per day from 3-21 to 3-28 to project ahead 14 days.
Coronavirus cases by state - projections for growther from 03-21-2020 to 04-...James Orr
The document provides a projection of coronavirus cases in the United States from March 22, 2020 to April 21, 2020 using a model (Model IV) developed by James K. Orr. It projects the maximum number of cases for each US state over this time period based on current case numbers as of March 21, 2020 and average daily growth rates over the previous 3 days for each state. It notes that the projections provide an optimistic scenario that depends on actions by governments and mercy from God. Tables with projections for each state are also included.
This document contains three tables related to finance mathematics:
1. Table I shows the accumulation factor of capital for interest rates ranging from 1% to 18% compounded annually over periods of 1 to 18 years.
2. Table II shows the present value factor of a series of payments for the same range of interest rates and time periods.
3. Table III shows the accumulation factor of capital for a series of payments with interest rates from 1% to 18% over periods of 1 to 13 years.
Matemática financeira 6 tabelas financeiras de alto nível - by prof. shibat...prof. Renan Viana
This document contains two tables. The first table shows the number of days in each month for a standard 365 day year and a leap (366 day) year. The second table contains factors used to calculate compound interest over different periods of time at varying annual interest rates.
The document appears to contain numerical data in a table format with percentages listed across the top and increasing whole numbers down the left side. The interior of the table contains increasing decimal values with up to 4 decimal places.
The document shows a table with interest compounding factors over 31 periods for interest rates ranging from 1% to 15%. The table allows users to look up the factor that accounts for interest compounding over a given number of periods at a particular interest rate. Factors increase as the interest rate or number of periods increase, showing how savings grow faster with higher rates or longer investment timelines with compound interest.
The document contains tables with factors for compound interest accumulation and present value of uniform series in postponed payments. The compound interest accumulation table shows the factor, which is (1+i)^n, for interest rates from 1% to 15% and periods from 1 to 40 years. The uniform series present value table shows the factor, an,i, for calculating present value of uniform series payments with interest rates from 1% and periods from 1 to 40 years.
This document contains tables of compound interest factors for interest rates of 1/4%, 1/2%, and 3/4% compounded annually. The tables show the factors needed to calculate future and present values of single payments, uniform series payments, and arithmetic gradient series payments over a range of time periods from 1 to 480 years.
Tablas Financieras de Factor Valor Actual y Valor Futuro Anualidades y Cantid...emperatrizazul
The document contains a table showing the actual value of an annuity for different interest rates from 1% to 10% compounded annually over periods of 1 to 20 years. The table provides the formula to calculate the actual value of an annuity as (1 - (1 + i)-n) / i, where i is the interest rate and n is the number of years. It lists the actual value for varying interest rates and time periods.
Coronavirus cases by state - projections for growther from 03-21-2020 to 04-...James Orr
The document provides a projection of coronavirus cases in the United States from March 22, 2020 to April 21, 2020 using a model (Model IV) developed by James K. Orr. It projects the maximum number of cases for each US state over this time period based on current case numbers as of March 21, 2020 and average daily growth rates over the previous 3 days for each state. It notes that the projections provide an optimistic scenario that depends on actions by governments and mercy from God. Tables with projections for each state are also included.
This document contains three tables related to finance mathematics:
1. Table I shows the accumulation factor of capital for interest rates ranging from 1% to 18% compounded annually over periods of 1 to 18 years.
2. Table II shows the present value factor of a series of payments for the same range of interest rates and time periods.
3. Table III shows the accumulation factor of capital for a series of payments with interest rates from 1% to 18% over periods of 1 to 13 years.
Matemática financeira 6 tabelas financeiras de alto nível - by prof. shibat...prof. Renan Viana
This document contains two tables. The first table shows the number of days in each month for a standard 365 day year and a leap (366 day) year. The second table contains factors used to calculate compound interest over different periods of time at varying annual interest rates.
The document appears to contain numerical data in a table format with percentages listed across the top and increasing whole numbers down the left side. The interior of the table contains increasing decimal values with up to 4 decimal places.
The document shows a table with interest compounding factors over 31 periods for interest rates ranging from 1% to 15%. The table allows users to look up the factor that accounts for interest compounding over a given number of periods at a particular interest rate. Factors increase as the interest rate or number of periods increase, showing how savings grow faster with higher rates or longer investment timelines with compound interest.
The document contains tables with factors for compound interest accumulation and present value of uniform series in postponed payments. The compound interest accumulation table shows the factor, which is (1+i)^n, for interest rates from 1% to 15% and periods from 1 to 40 years. The uniform series present value table shows the factor, an,i, for calculating present value of uniform series payments with interest rates from 1% and periods from 1 to 40 years.
This document contains tables of compound interest factors for interest rates of 1/4%, 1/2%, and 3/4% compounded annually. The tables show the factors needed to calculate future and present values of single payments, uniform series payments, and arithmetic gradient series payments over a range of time periods from 1 to 480 years.
Tablas Financieras de Factor Valor Actual y Valor Futuro Anualidades y Cantid...emperatrizazul
The document contains a table showing the actual value of an annuity for different interest rates from 1% to 10% compounded annually over periods of 1 to 20 years. The table provides the formula to calculate the actual value of an annuity as (1 - (1 + i)-n) / i, where i is the interest rate and n is the number of years. It lists the actual value for varying interest rates and time periods.
This document provides a table showing the present value of a 1 unit annual annuity for "n" periods using interest rates from 1% to 40%. It was created by Angel Higuerey Gómez in November 2000 to calculate the future value of annuities using different interest rates over varying time periods. The table allows the user to look up the present value factor for any number of periods at any whole percentage interest rate between 1% and 40%.
World population estimates interpolated and averagedHear O World
This document provides world population estimates from 10,000 BCE to 1,879 CE based on multiple sources. The estimates are interpolated and averaged to provide a single figure for each year. A footnote provides information on the sources and methods used to compile the estimates.
This document appears to contain time series data from 1952 to 1989 with annual observations of GDP, M1 money supply, inflation rate (PR), and interest rate (RS) for the United States. The data is organized by year and period (quarterly) with corresponding values listed for each economic indicator.
The document contains a table with statistical data on degrees of freedom and critical values for different significance levels (alpha) in hypothesis testing. It shows the critical values for different numbers of degrees of freedom (from 1 to 98) and for various alpha levels ranging from 0.001 to 0.1.
This document appears to be a table containing random digits organized into lines. There are 141 lines shown, with each line containing 10 random digits. The table seems to be providing random number data for statistical analysis or simulation purposes.
The document contains a table of numbers organized in rows and columns. The first column contains probability values from 0.1 to 0.005 decreasing by factors of 2. The remaining columns contain sets of numbers that decrease as the probability values decrease.
The document shows a table with interest compounding factors over time for interest rates ranging from 1% to 15% annually. The table has the factors for time periods from 1 to 31 years across columns for the different interest rates. The factors show how much an initial investment will grow to over time with compound interest at the given annual rates.
The document appears to be a table containing statistical data with right tail probabilities for the t distribution. The table includes degrees of freedom (df) ranging from 1 to 30 across the top. Under each df is a column of p-values ranging from 0.40 to 0.0005. The body of the table contains the corresponding t-statistic for each intersection of df and p-value. Below the table is a website url and email for an organization called Marketing Utopia.
This document provides data on substance abuse treatment admissions by county in Michigan for fiscal year 2012. It shows the primary substance reported at admission for each county, including alcohol, cocaine, marijuana, heroin, other opiates, methamphetamine, other stimulants and all others. The data is presented numerically and as percentages for each substance by county.
Como se utiliza la tabla t de student (formulas)Zully HR
The document contains tables of values with increasing levels from 0.55 to 0.995. The values seem to correspond to statistical calculations for levels of significance and critical values.
This document contains tables of probability values corresponding to the area under the normal distribution curve for given z-values. There are three tables that provide the probability of a statistic being: 1) between 0 and z, 2) less than z, and 3) greater than z. The tables allow looking up the cumulative probability for any z-value between 0 and 3 with increments of 0.01.
The document contains a table of critical values for the t-distribution for various sample sizes (degrees of freedom), significance levels, and test types (one-tailed vs two-tailed). The table provides critical t-values for sample sizes ranging from 1 to 97 degrees of freedom and significance levels from 0.25 to 0.001 for one-tailed tests, and from 0.5 to 0.002 for two-tailed tests. The critical values can be used to determine if a calculated t-statistic is statistically significant for a given hypothesis test.
1. The document contains a table of critical values for the F distribution with an alpha value of 0.05.
2. The table lists the critical values across different degrees of freedom for the numerator and denominator.
3. Critical values range from 161.4 to 249.3 depending on the degrees of freedom.
This document contains a table showing future value factors for uniform series of posticipated payments at interest rates ranging from 1% to 15% per period over periods of 1 to 33. The future value factor, denoted Sn,i, is calculated as [(1+i)^n] - 1)/i, where n is the number of periods and i is the interest rate per period.
The document contains two tables providing future value interest factors for one dollar and one dollar annuities compounded at various interest rates over different periods of time. Table A-1 shows the future value of $1 invested at rates from 1% to 30% over periods from 1 to 30 years. Table A-2 shows the future value of a $1 annuity invested at the same rates and periods. The tables allow users to determine the future values of single investments and annuities based on the interest rate and time horizon.
This document contains tables of critical values for the z-distribution, t-distribution, and chi-square distribution. The z-table provides critical values for the standard normal distribution used in z-tests. The t-table gives critical values for the t-distribution used in t-tests based on degrees of freedom. And the chi-square table lists critical values for the chi-square distribution applied in chi-square tests.
The document contains a table with critical values of the F distribution for a significance level of 0.05. The table lists the critical values of the F distribution based on the degrees of freedom of the numerator and denominator. It shows critical values for numerator degrees of freedom ranging from 1 to 30 and denominator degrees of freedom ranging from 1 to infinity.
This document provides pricing information for various types of residential properties from different developers in multiple areas, including Alamanda, Bougenville, Vignolia and Ravenia. For each property type, the listing includes the cash price, 12-month installment price, KPR mortgage price with 5% downpayment and 6.5% interest, estimated monthly mortgage payments for various loan periods, estimated transaction fees and minimum initial capital outlay. Property sizes range from 36/72 square meters to 98/240 square meters.
- This document provides details of a proposed 120-month loan for $1,170,000 with a 10% down payment of $130,000 and fixed interest rate of 9%.
- The monthly payment would be $15,545.67, which includes principal, interest, insurance, and other fees.
- It includes a loan amortization schedule showing the monthly breakdown of principal paid, interest, and balance remaining over the 10 year term.
The document appears to contain statistical data organized into a table with over 100 rows and columns. It includes values ranging from around 1.5 to over 250. The data is grouped into categories including degrees of freedom, sample sizes ranging from 1 to over 10,000, and values in increments of 1 from 1 to 30 or more.
Alex Shaw III - Information Technology PortfolioAlexShawIII
My portfolio showcases my work in technology, particularly data modeling and presentation technologies. I also love and include game development and STEAM tools.
Covid 19 cases per day per 100,000 popylation 5-15-2020James Orr
More weekly update. Focused on average new cases per week, change in cases per week, and average new cases per week per 100,000 population. Provides graphs on six "no doing well states" and detail data in tabular form on all states
This document provides a table showing the present value of a 1 unit annual annuity for "n" periods using interest rates from 1% to 40%. It was created by Angel Higuerey Gómez in November 2000 to calculate the future value of annuities using different interest rates over varying time periods. The table allows the user to look up the present value factor for any number of periods at any whole percentage interest rate between 1% and 40%.
World population estimates interpolated and averagedHear O World
This document provides world population estimates from 10,000 BCE to 1,879 CE based on multiple sources. The estimates are interpolated and averaged to provide a single figure for each year. A footnote provides information on the sources and methods used to compile the estimates.
This document appears to contain time series data from 1952 to 1989 with annual observations of GDP, M1 money supply, inflation rate (PR), and interest rate (RS) for the United States. The data is organized by year and period (quarterly) with corresponding values listed for each economic indicator.
The document contains a table with statistical data on degrees of freedom and critical values for different significance levels (alpha) in hypothesis testing. It shows the critical values for different numbers of degrees of freedom (from 1 to 98) and for various alpha levels ranging from 0.001 to 0.1.
This document appears to be a table containing random digits organized into lines. There are 141 lines shown, with each line containing 10 random digits. The table seems to be providing random number data for statistical analysis or simulation purposes.
The document contains a table of numbers organized in rows and columns. The first column contains probability values from 0.1 to 0.005 decreasing by factors of 2. The remaining columns contain sets of numbers that decrease as the probability values decrease.
The document shows a table with interest compounding factors over time for interest rates ranging from 1% to 15% annually. The table has the factors for time periods from 1 to 31 years across columns for the different interest rates. The factors show how much an initial investment will grow to over time with compound interest at the given annual rates.
The document appears to be a table containing statistical data with right tail probabilities for the t distribution. The table includes degrees of freedom (df) ranging from 1 to 30 across the top. Under each df is a column of p-values ranging from 0.40 to 0.0005. The body of the table contains the corresponding t-statistic for each intersection of df and p-value. Below the table is a website url and email for an organization called Marketing Utopia.
This document provides data on substance abuse treatment admissions by county in Michigan for fiscal year 2012. It shows the primary substance reported at admission for each county, including alcohol, cocaine, marijuana, heroin, other opiates, methamphetamine, other stimulants and all others. The data is presented numerically and as percentages for each substance by county.
Como se utiliza la tabla t de student (formulas)Zully HR
The document contains tables of values with increasing levels from 0.55 to 0.995. The values seem to correspond to statistical calculations for levels of significance and critical values.
This document contains tables of probability values corresponding to the area under the normal distribution curve for given z-values. There are three tables that provide the probability of a statistic being: 1) between 0 and z, 2) less than z, and 3) greater than z. The tables allow looking up the cumulative probability for any z-value between 0 and 3 with increments of 0.01.
The document contains a table of critical values for the t-distribution for various sample sizes (degrees of freedom), significance levels, and test types (one-tailed vs two-tailed). The table provides critical t-values for sample sizes ranging from 1 to 97 degrees of freedom and significance levels from 0.25 to 0.001 for one-tailed tests, and from 0.5 to 0.002 for two-tailed tests. The critical values can be used to determine if a calculated t-statistic is statistically significant for a given hypothesis test.
1. The document contains a table of critical values for the F distribution with an alpha value of 0.05.
2. The table lists the critical values across different degrees of freedom for the numerator and denominator.
3. Critical values range from 161.4 to 249.3 depending on the degrees of freedom.
This document contains a table showing future value factors for uniform series of posticipated payments at interest rates ranging from 1% to 15% per period over periods of 1 to 33. The future value factor, denoted Sn,i, is calculated as [(1+i)^n] - 1)/i, where n is the number of periods and i is the interest rate per period.
The document contains two tables providing future value interest factors for one dollar and one dollar annuities compounded at various interest rates over different periods of time. Table A-1 shows the future value of $1 invested at rates from 1% to 30% over periods from 1 to 30 years. Table A-2 shows the future value of a $1 annuity invested at the same rates and periods. The tables allow users to determine the future values of single investments and annuities based on the interest rate and time horizon.
This document contains tables of critical values for the z-distribution, t-distribution, and chi-square distribution. The z-table provides critical values for the standard normal distribution used in z-tests. The t-table gives critical values for the t-distribution used in t-tests based on degrees of freedom. And the chi-square table lists critical values for the chi-square distribution applied in chi-square tests.
The document contains a table with critical values of the F distribution for a significance level of 0.05. The table lists the critical values of the F distribution based on the degrees of freedom of the numerator and denominator. It shows critical values for numerator degrees of freedom ranging from 1 to 30 and denominator degrees of freedom ranging from 1 to infinity.
This document provides pricing information for various types of residential properties from different developers in multiple areas, including Alamanda, Bougenville, Vignolia and Ravenia. For each property type, the listing includes the cash price, 12-month installment price, KPR mortgage price with 5% downpayment and 6.5% interest, estimated monthly mortgage payments for various loan periods, estimated transaction fees and minimum initial capital outlay. Property sizes range from 36/72 square meters to 98/240 square meters.
- This document provides details of a proposed 120-month loan for $1,170,000 with a 10% down payment of $130,000 and fixed interest rate of 9%.
- The monthly payment would be $15,545.67, which includes principal, interest, insurance, and other fees.
- It includes a loan amortization schedule showing the monthly breakdown of principal paid, interest, and balance remaining over the 10 year term.
The document appears to contain statistical data organized into a table with over 100 rows and columns. It includes values ranging from around 1.5 to over 250. The data is grouped into categories including degrees of freedom, sample sizes ranging from 1 to over 10,000, and values in increments of 1 from 1 to 30 or more.
Alex Shaw III - Information Technology PortfolioAlexShawIII
My portfolio showcases my work in technology, particularly data modeling and presentation technologies. I also love and include game development and STEAM tools.
Covid 19 cases per day per 100,000 popylation 5-15-2020James Orr
More weekly update. Focused on average new cases per week, change in cases per week, and average new cases per week per 100,000 population. Provides graphs on six "no doing well states" and detail data in tabular form on all states
This document contains quarterly and annual service and retail goals and actuals for a service provider. It also includes calculations to project the provider's potential annual income based on commissions from meeting service and retail goals. Key figures include an annual service goal of $42,038, an annual retail goal of $6,306, and a projected annual income of $28,523 once commissions and tips are calculated.
1. The document contains a table with critical values of the chi-squared distribution for different degrees of freedom and significance levels.
2. The table has values ranging from 0.001 to 0.995 for significance levels and degrees of freedom from 1 to 140.
3. The critical values increase as the significance level decreases or the degrees of freedom increases.
This document appears to be a collection of market data and statistics from Bloomberg including:
- Stock market indexes and percentages changes from various countries around the world on July 23rd.
- Charts showing bond yield curves and credit default swap rates over time for various indexes and countries.
- Economic indicators like GDP, inflation and PMI numbers for countries like China and the US.
- Commodity prices and flows for various commodities.
- US election polling numbers showing Biden leading Trump.
The document provides an overview of global market and economic conditions as of July 23rd through data and charts.
This document contains market and economic data from Bloomberg for March 28, 2019. It includes percentages changes for major stock market indices, bond yields, commodity prices and other indicators. Many of the statistics shown relate to movements in global financial markets over the past week. Pages also provide charts displaying historical trends for interest rates, credit spreads, stock valuations and volatility indices.
Monthly economic report real estate analysis benchmark - june 9 2017...Dean Koeller
This document summarizes real estate market data for Calgary and Edmonton from January to May 2017. In Calgary, total residential sales were down 4.69% year-over-year while the average home price increased 16.02% to $562,995. Detached home sales fell 14.81% and average prices rose 17.73%. In Edmonton, total residential sales declined 1.72% and average prices grew 1.10% to $449,683. Detached home sales increased 3.99% but average prices fell 9.09% to $379,516. The document also provides economic indicators for Alberta such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and oil prices.
This document summarizes real estate market data for Calgary and Edmonton from January to May 2017. In Calgary, total residential sales were down 4.69% year-over-year while the average home price increased 16.02% to $562,995. Detached home sales fell 14.81% and average prices rose 17.73%. In Edmonton, total residential sales declined 1.72% and average prices grew 1.10% to $449,683. Detached home sales increased 3.99% but average prices fell 9.09% to $379,516. The document also provides economic indicators for Alberta such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and oil prices.
The document lists furniture and fixture assets purchased between 2008-2016 by an organization. It includes details of 50+ assets such as desks, chairs, conference tables, and sofas. It shows purchase costs, useful life in months, purchase and end dates, monthly depreciation, and accumulated depreciation over years. The total original cost of assets was 51,243 and accumulated depreciation until end of 2017 was 23,035 with a net book value of 19,568.
The document contains tables with data on fuel costs, fuel efficiency, and electricity prices from 2000 to 2030. It shows fuel prices per liter generally increasing from 2000 to 2030 for gasoline and diesel. Electricity prices per kWh also increase over time but remain lower than gas and diesel prices. Vehicle efficiency improves over time for gasoline, diesel, and electric vehicles according to the fuel consumption and driving range data. Total fuel and electricity costs generally increase for all vehicle types between 2013 and 2030.
This document contains a table with factors for present value calculations of uniform series payments. The table shows factors for annual interest rates ranging from 1% to 15% and for periods of 1 to 32 years. The factors allow calculating the present value of a stream of equal annual payments over a specified term using the interest rate.
The document is a real estate report for Magnolia, TX from June 2013 to June 2015 that provides monthly housing market statistics including:
- Average and median home sale prices fluctuated between $258,981 to $375,491, with the median between 33-89% of the average price.
- Average price per square foot ranged from $2,555 to $3,501 with a total increase of 15.72% over the reported period.
- Average days on the market varied each month between 76.5 to 97.4 days.
- Months supply of inventory, measuring housing demand versus supply, was between 2.3 to 10 months over the reported period.
Orr's model vii projection of cases to 4 16-2020 created 04-03-2020James Orr
Updated with Model VII which has a much sharper decrease in Case Growth Per Day. Model VII achieves peak New Cases per Day within the two week project, while Model VI New Cases continues to grow over the 14 days.
Magnolia 77354 Home Sales Report June 2016Mary J Feece
Monthly market report for the Magnolia 77354 area with current sales, listings and comparison to previous year data. Includes days on market breakdown by $ amount.
This document provides annual per capita funding comparisons for Manitoba health regions from 1999/2000 to 2006/2007. It includes total net funding amounts, population bases, administration costs, and net operating funding per capita for each health region and facility in Manitoba. The funding amounts are broken down into categories such as acute care, long term care, medical, and home care. It also provides sources for the funding data.
This document contains a table listing pipe dimensions including outer diameter, wall thickness, and number per foot in both inches and millimeters. It also lists specifications for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and linepipe ranges. Additional information is provided on process, specifications, chemistries, lengths, and contact information for a manufacturer's representative.
Similar to Orr' projection model v 2020 03-29 (20)
Truth how texas and houston compare to new yorkJames Orr
June 14, 2020 Much In News About Growth In Cases In Houston, and Texas. This presents data that shows superior statistics for Houston and Texas versus New York State and New York City. Number (and rates per 100,000 Population) need t o compare Houston now to New York City in four to six weeks after reopening.
Coronavirus data focused on new york comparison and data per populationJames Orr
Continues my weekly report. This focus on (new cases per day) per 100,000 population. Uses a nine day moving average (to remove day to day effects over the week). All states compare to New York State with highest 50 new cases per day per 100K. For states who are at very low levels, also show data for that state with both 0 to 60 scale (with New York) and 0 to 5 cases per day per 100K scale.
Us coronavirus data as of may 1, 2020 just dataJames Orr
170 pages this week, but just data on Coronavirus cases in US by state.
Includes the best measure found so far -- Average weekly new cases per day per 100,000 population
Page 4 – 8 are alphabetical by state total cases, max cases per day, 4-24 to 5/1 average cases per day, plus normalized by 100,000 population. Has which 3 charts numbers for detail data per state
Pages 9 – 13 are from state with the highest cases per 100,000 population (New York) to least (Montana). Also shows average new cases per day per 100,000 population in descending order.
Page 14 has distributions of cases/100,000 and new cases per day per 100,000. Also shows the ration of weekly new cases 4/24 to 5/1 divided maximum weekly new case.
Note that for 21 states (and Total US, and District of Columba) had the maximum weekly new cases during 4/24 to 5/1
Predicting coronavirus cases and questions need answeringJames Orr
Another weekend, and another attempt to make sense out of the Coronavirus Case data from states in the United States. Overall, cases per day remain flat (on plateau) with no decline in data. However, other indications suggest increasing irrelevant to use new cases per day for social policy decisions. Indication that new hospitalizations per day might be a better measure.
Criteria to begin relaxing social distancing revision AJames Orr
Latest weekly update (on weekend) of my projection of the number of Coronavirus case per day by state. Prior predictions modeled following three weeks. Mode VII two weeks ago and Model IX on week ago appear as accurate as randomness in data allows, or new pockets of outbreaks. This version looks at where states are at plateauing or being pose peak new cases per day. Also looks at criteria to begin to relax social distancing guidelines. Revision A corrects Alaska (missing a 0) and Nevada population (one extra 0).
Measuring the effect of social distancing On CoronavirusJames Orr
This was an attempt to see if I could measure the effect of social distancing. While the method is immature, it definitely shows that movement into regions by infectious persons is defeating "social distancing" in most areas. Only New York and Washington show progress. Texas "social distancing" appears overwhelmed by movement of new infectious persons into Texas
04/05/2020. The United States looks for signs that new Coronavirus Cases per day has started to decrease. We may be close, but not there yet. This presentation looks at changes in Case for United States and a few states. It looks at Cases versus date, first derivative (Growth In Cases Per Day) and finally the second delivery (which show how rapidly the growth per day is decreasing).
Orr's model vi projection of cases to 4 16-2020 created 04-03-2020James Orr
This is the latest weekly update of my projection of Coronavirus Cases over the next fourteen days. Projection two weeks ago was too low (assumed control of spread). Projection on week ago assumed no change in Growth Rate % of cases per day. This version used trend in Growth Rate % cases per day to extrapolate reducing Growth Rate per day over the next 14 days. This should be much more accurate if continued progress in "social distancing" occurs.
Coronavirus pandemic public health - lessons in mathematicsJames Orr
This was prepared for a mathematical literate (honors) young teenage girl. This introduces risk assessment and risk mitigation using Public Health Measures. Also includes a mathematical tuitorial.
Coronavirus case growth by country j.k.orr 2020 03-07James Orr
An attempt to model growth of the Coronavirus case growth in a country from the time the total cases reach 225 cases for the next 10 days. Model is ONLY VALID for these 10 days. Model is dependent that data provided by countries are accurate. Raw data from Mainland China, South Korea, Italy, and Iran as of 3/6/2020.
2018 is year to consider conversions of tax deferred funds to rothJames Orr
With the 2018 tax law changes, converting tax-deferred savings into Roth IRAs is advantageous for those who can pay the income taxes. For individuals on Medicare, there are income thresholds that impact Medicare premium costs that must be considered when deciding how much to convert. Converting just under the $267,000 threshold may be best for married couples expecting to complete conversions while both are alive. For those needing access to funds sooner, determining the optimal strategy can be more complicated.
Effect of tax cut and job act for couples over 65James Orr
Captures some of my analysis of the effect of Thrump's "Tax Cut and Job Act" on my strategy for managing my pre-tax IRA funds. Specially written for couples over 65 on Medicare due to the effect of Gross Taxable Income on both federal income tax and Medicare Premiums. Identifies general tax planning strategies and also identifies a largely unaddressed risk, which is effect of change in income tax filing status when a spouse dies (from "Married Filing Jointly" to filing as "Single").
The mythical 100 flood plain Houston Texas 2017James Orr
Data is shown for one location in south Harris County (Clear Creek at I-45) where two near "1000 year floods" based on Harris County Flood Warning System 100 year flood, 500 year flood data within 40 years (in 1979 and 2017)
Hurricane harvey Impact On Houston Rainfall and Water DepthJames Orr
Screen prints of selected data from Harris County Flood Control District. There are rain gauges and stream depth gauges through out Harris and surrounding counties. Data was captured to show impacts in several areas including the Clear Creek Watershed near NASA's Johnson Space Center.
Software Reliability For Engineers - J.K.Orr 2015-09-23James Orr
This document describes a simplified engineering approach for computing software reliability that was developed for and applied to the Space Shuttle Primary Avionics Software System (PASS). The approach models the software as uniform layers representing releases. It computes reliability estimates based on failure data for each layer over time. The approach was found to more accurately predict reliability than a complex statistical model. The key advantages are that it accounts for changes in reliability characteristics over time due to process improvements and can estimate reliability prior to failures occurring based on relative size of software releases.
Space Shuttle Flight Software (PASS) Loss Of Crew Errors J.K. Orr 2015-08-27James Orr
This document summarizes a loss of crew and vehicle (LOCV) error in the Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) that was discovered prior to the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster (STS-51L) in 1986. The error caused the PASS system to hang during a Shuttle Mission Simulator simulation of a contingency abort to Rota, Spain for STS-1. The probability of the PASS error occurring was less than 1 in 240. The Backup Flight System was successfully engaged after 10 seconds when the error occurred. The error had been introduced prior to STS-1. It received high visibility within NASA due to occurring during prime crew training and representing the first total lockup of the PASS flight system after
The document presents a method for estimating defects remaining after a series of software inspections using minimal additional process steps and collected data. It involves inspectors privately recording defects found before each inspection and identifying defects they previously found during the meeting. A capture-recapture metric is calculated and used with tables or charts along with total defects found to predict remaining defects and establish confidence limits, as validated through simulations. The method aims to provide useful estimates with minimal effort for projects lacking metrics experience.
Annual PASS Failures Vs Known Product DRs J.K.Orr 2015-07-14James Orr
This document summarizes data on failures in the Space Shuttle Primary Avionics Software System (PASS) over its 30-year lifespan. It shows that the annual failure rate was correlated with the number of known product defects in the system each year, with about 6% of defects resulting in failures during operational use. Over time, more latent defects were discovered through testing and development, improving the known quality of the software. By studying this data, failure rates in future flight software systems may be better predicted based on the number of undiscovered defects remaining in the system.
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These lecture slides, by Dr Sidra Arshad, offer a quick overview of the physiological basis of a normal electrocardiogram.
Learning objectives:
1. Define an electrocardiogram (ECG) and electrocardiography
2. Describe how dipoles generated by the heart produce the waveforms of the ECG
3. Describe the components of a normal electrocardiogram of a typical bipolar lead (limb II)
4. Differentiate between intervals and segments
5. Enlist some common indications for obtaining an ECG
6. Describe the flow of current around the heart during the cardiac cycle
7. Discuss the placement and polarity of the leads of electrocardiograph
8. Describe the normal electrocardiograms recorded from the limb leads and explain the physiological basis of the different records that are obtained
9. Define mean electrical vector (axis) of the heart and give the normal range
10. Define the mean QRS vector
11. Describe the axes of leads (hexagonal reference system)
12. Comprehend the vectorial analysis of the normal ECG
13. Determine the mean electrical axis of the ventricular QRS and appreciate the mean axis deviation
14. Explain the concepts of current of injury, J point, and their significance
Study Resources:
1. Chapter 11, Guyton and Hall Textbook of Medical Physiology, 14th edition
2. Chapter 9, Human Physiology - From Cells to Systems, Lauralee Sherwood, 9th edition
3. Chapter 29, Ganong’s Review of Medical Physiology, 26th edition
4. Electrocardiogram, StatPearls - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK549803/
5. ECG in Medical Practice by ABM Abdullah, 4th edition
6. Chapter 3, Cardiology Explained, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2214/
7. ECG Basics, http://www.nataliescasebook.com/tag/e-c-g-basics
2. Summary
• This is a revised model based on actual increases in test cases over
the past 7 days.
• Charts 8 – 10 give results for my projections a week ago
• Actual cases on 03-21-2020
• Actual cases on 03-28-2020
• Orr’ Model III projection for 03-28-2020
• Average actual daily growth per day in Coronavirus cases for actual cases 03-
21-2020 to 03-28-2020 (this value is used as a constant for the Model V
projection for the next 14 days on Charts 3 – 7)
• Average Model III daily growth per day in Coronavirus cases for actual cases
03-21-2020 to 03-28-2020 (some too low, some too high, a few close)
8. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Alabama 124 696 1,097 28.1% 36.7%
Alaska 14 102 58 33.0% 22.6%
Arizona 104 773 920 33.3% 36.7%
Arkansas 118 409 1,044 19.5% 36.7%
California 1,200 4,643 3,494 21.4% 16.7%
Colorado 476 2,061 1,860 23.5% 21.6%
Connecticut 223 1,524 1,768 31.7% 34.6%
Delaware 45 214 357 25.2% 34.6%
District of Columbia 98 342 777 19.6% 34.6%
Florida 658 4,038 5,218 29.6% 34.6%
Georgia 374 2,446 4,020 30.8% 40.4%
Guam 15 51 58 19.2% 21.4%
Hawaii 48 151 425 17.9% 36.7%
Idaho 43 261 274 29.4% 30.3%
Illinois 753 3,491 12,891 24.7% 50.0%
Indiana 128 1,232 1,133 38.3% 36.7%
Iowa 68 298 602 23.7% 36.7%
9. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Kansas 55 261 487 25.1% 36.7%
Kentucky 54 394 157 33.0% 16.7%
Louisiana 585 3,316 5,177 28.2% 36.7%
Maine 73 211 163 16.6% 12.3%
Maryland 190 892 1,682 24.9% 36.7%
Massachusetts 525 4,267 1,529 35.1% 16.7%
Michagan 787 4,650 3,378 29.0% 23.3%
Minnesota 137 441 399 18.3% 16.7%
Mississippi 140 683 2,397 25.6% 50.0%
Missouri 73 838 646 41.8% 36.7%
Montana 27 147 79 27.5% 16.7%
Nebraska 48 108 111 12.4% 12.8%
Neveda 154 621 1,363 22.2% 36.7%
New Hampshire 65 214 160 18.7% 14.0%
New Jersey 1,327 11,124 11,744 35.7% 36.7%
New Mexico 57 208 166 20.3% 16.7%
New York 10,366 52,318 114,619 26.2% 41.0%
North Carolina 184 935 1,628 26.3% 36.7%
10. Compare Model III to Actual 3/21 to 3/28
State Actual Cases To
4/21/2020
Actual Cases To
4/28/2020
Projection Of Cases To
4/28/2020 Based on
4/21/2020 Actuals
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
Actual Growth Per
Day Over 7 Days For
Check 1
North Dakota 28 94 248 19.0% 36.7%
Ohio 247 1,406 2,186 28.3% 36.7%
Oklahoma 55 377 487 31.8% 36.7%
Oregon 145 478 399 18.7% 15.8%
Pennsylvania 374 2,751 3,310 33.1% 36.7%
Rhode Island 66 239 584 20.2% 36.7%
South Carolina 173 660 1,531 21.2% 36.7%
South Dakota 14 68 41 25.5% 16.7%
Tennessee 371 1,373 3,283 20.6% 36.7%
Texas 304 2,062 2,690 31.5% 36.7%
Utah 136 602 396 23.9% 16.7%
Vermont 49 211 84 23.4% 8.4%
Virginia 152 739 443 25.5% 16.7%
Washington 1,793 4,310 5,221 13.5% 16.7%
West Virginia 11 112 97 39.4% 36.7%
Wisconsin 281 889 2,487 18.0% 36.7%
Wyoming 23 84 67 20.4% 16.7%