This presentation shows financial managers how to predict how long accounts will likely stay open. It is based on a sophisticated statistical probability model.
This document summarizes a presentation on analyzing and valuing core deposits given at an annual banking conference. It describes the experiences of two banks: a community bank that previously used outdated regulatory assumptions about core deposit durations and a large bank upgrading its systems. For the community bank, using a more accurate survival analysis model based on the Weibull distribution revealed that core deposits, especially money market deposits, had much longer average lives than assumed. This led the bank to change its transfer pricing methodology, incentivize core deposit growth, improve profitability, and increase franchise value through a more stable funding mix. The presentation advocated this approach as a more mathematically valid way to project deposit retention under changing rate environments compared to prior methods.
This research study aims to determine the best predictors of changes in core deposit interest rates. Specifically, it will examine whether federal funds futures rates and consumer confidence are good predictors. The study hypothesizes that both factors will significantly predict interest rate changes, and that a model using both will have the highest predictive power. A time series analysis using hierarchical linear modeling with repeated observations over time will be conducted to test these hypotheses.
This document summarizes a presentation on core deposit modeling best practices. It discusses topics like rate sensitivities in a rising rate environment, valuation of core deposits, sensitivity analysis, liquidity concerns, core deposit studies and behavioral inputs. Key points covered include using historical data to model rate sensitivities, the GAAP definition of valuing core deposits as the present value of average balances discounted by alternative funding costs, and the importance of sensitivity analysis and considering different scenarios in modeling.
Econ315 Money and Banking: Learning Unit #13: Term Structure of Interest Ratessakanor
This document discusses the term structure of interest rates and how interest rates vary based on the maturity of financial instruments. It introduces three theories that attempt to explain the term structure:
1. Liquidity premium theory: Short-term rates are lower due to higher liquidity of short-term instruments.
2. Segmented market theory: Interest rates are determined separately in different maturity markets based on supply and demand.
3. Expectations theory: Investors consider expected future rates, so rates adjust to equalize returns across strategies of different maturities. Equilibrium occurs when rates on all maturities are consistent with expectations.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which states that current stock prices fully reflect all available information. Under EMH, it is impossible for investors to consistently outperform the market because stock prices adjust rapidly to new information. However, some evidence suggests markets are not always efficient, as seen in crashes not explained by economic changes. While published reports may be reflected in prices already, the EMH remains useful as a benchmark for understanding market behavior.
The document discusses the yield curve and term structure of interest rates. It defines the yield curve as the graphical depiction of the relationship between the interest rate of bonds of the same credit quality but different maturities. The yield curve is based on the term structure, which refers to how interest rates vary depending on the time period to maturity of the debt instrument. The document outlines several theories that attempt to explain the typical upward sloping nature of the yield curve, including expectations theory, liquidity premium theory, and preferred habitat theory.
This document discusses factors that affect the risk structure of interest rates. It introduces three theories of the term structure of interest rates: expectations theory, market segmentation theory, and liquidity premium theory. Expectations theory holds that long-term interest rates equal the average expected short-term rates. Market segmentation theory sees bond markets as completely separate. Liquidity premium theory combines features of the first two theories, asserting long rates equal expected short rates plus a liquidity premium to compensate for less liquidity of long bonds. It best explains the empirical facts about how short and long rates typically move together and yield curve slopes.
This document discusses money, inflation, and their relationship. It defines money as an asset used to purchase goods and services that serves as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. The document outlines different monetary aggregates (M0, M1, M2) and explains how too much money growth can lead to inflation according to the quantity theory of money. While money and inflation are linked in the long run, the relationship breaks down in the short run, allowing monetary policy to influence output.
This document summarizes a presentation on analyzing and valuing core deposits given at an annual banking conference. It describes the experiences of two banks: a community bank that previously used outdated regulatory assumptions about core deposit durations and a large bank upgrading its systems. For the community bank, using a more accurate survival analysis model based on the Weibull distribution revealed that core deposits, especially money market deposits, had much longer average lives than assumed. This led the bank to change its transfer pricing methodology, incentivize core deposit growth, improve profitability, and increase franchise value through a more stable funding mix. The presentation advocated this approach as a more mathematically valid way to project deposit retention under changing rate environments compared to prior methods.
This research study aims to determine the best predictors of changes in core deposit interest rates. Specifically, it will examine whether federal funds futures rates and consumer confidence are good predictors. The study hypothesizes that both factors will significantly predict interest rate changes, and that a model using both will have the highest predictive power. A time series analysis using hierarchical linear modeling with repeated observations over time will be conducted to test these hypotheses.
This document summarizes a presentation on core deposit modeling best practices. It discusses topics like rate sensitivities in a rising rate environment, valuation of core deposits, sensitivity analysis, liquidity concerns, core deposit studies and behavioral inputs. Key points covered include using historical data to model rate sensitivities, the GAAP definition of valuing core deposits as the present value of average balances discounted by alternative funding costs, and the importance of sensitivity analysis and considering different scenarios in modeling.
Econ315 Money and Banking: Learning Unit #13: Term Structure of Interest Ratessakanor
This document discusses the term structure of interest rates and how interest rates vary based on the maturity of financial instruments. It introduces three theories that attempt to explain the term structure:
1. Liquidity premium theory: Short-term rates are lower due to higher liquidity of short-term instruments.
2. Segmented market theory: Interest rates are determined separately in different maturity markets based on supply and demand.
3. Expectations theory: Investors consider expected future rates, so rates adjust to equalize returns across strategies of different maturities. Equilibrium occurs when rates on all maturities are consistent with expectations.
The document discusses the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which states that current stock prices fully reflect all available information. Under EMH, it is impossible for investors to consistently outperform the market because stock prices adjust rapidly to new information. However, some evidence suggests markets are not always efficient, as seen in crashes not explained by economic changes. While published reports may be reflected in prices already, the EMH remains useful as a benchmark for understanding market behavior.
The document discusses the yield curve and term structure of interest rates. It defines the yield curve as the graphical depiction of the relationship between the interest rate of bonds of the same credit quality but different maturities. The yield curve is based on the term structure, which refers to how interest rates vary depending on the time period to maturity of the debt instrument. The document outlines several theories that attempt to explain the typical upward sloping nature of the yield curve, including expectations theory, liquidity premium theory, and preferred habitat theory.
This document discusses factors that affect the risk structure of interest rates. It introduces three theories of the term structure of interest rates: expectations theory, market segmentation theory, and liquidity premium theory. Expectations theory holds that long-term interest rates equal the average expected short-term rates. Market segmentation theory sees bond markets as completely separate. Liquidity premium theory combines features of the first two theories, asserting long rates equal expected short rates plus a liquidity premium to compensate for less liquidity of long bonds. It best explains the empirical facts about how short and long rates typically move together and yield curve slopes.
This document discusses money, inflation, and their relationship. It defines money as an asset used to purchase goods and services that serves as a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of value. The document outlines different monetary aggregates (M0, M1, M2) and explains how too much money growth can lead to inflation according to the quantity theory of money. While money and inflation are linked in the long run, the relationship breaks down in the short run, allowing monetary policy to influence output.
This document outlines the key topics and goals for a lecture on financial markets. The lecture will provide an overview of financial markets, monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and the core principles of financial markets according to Stephen Cecchetti. It will discuss the stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, and commodities market. Other topics covered include financial intermediaries, monetary policy, and the five core principles of the time value of money, risk and return, the role of information, how markets work, and the importance of stability. The goal is for students to understand how financial markets and monetary policy work and to learn concepts that will be useful for both the short and long term.
Participation of Japanese regional Banks in International Syndicated LoansMasaki Yamaguchi
The recent internationalization trend among Japanese regional banks is a topic of interest for researchers in the context of regional bank growth strategy. This paper examines the factors that explain the lending behavior of regional banks in the international syndicated loan market during the period from 2009 to 2014. Through a comparative analysis and probit model using data from 10,717 transactions, it is found that regional banks prefer to participate in syndicated loans of lower amounts. The denomination of loans in Japanese yen is the most important factor in increasing the probability that regional banks will participate in these loans. The second most important consideration in explaining the lending behavior of regional banks relates to the characteristics of the borrowers. Regional banks prefer Asian borrowers that are in the financial services industry. Risk-taking and funding capacities can explain the characteristics of regional banks.
The document discusses the functions and components of the US monetary system. It defines the different measures of money supply (M1, M2, M3) and describes the types of assets included in each measure. It also explains the components of the Federal Reserve System and how the Fed controls the money supply through tools like open market operations, reserve requirements and interest rates. Finally, it provides an overview of how changes in the money supply impact interest rates in the money market.
35 page the term structure and interest rate dynamicsShahid Jnu
The document discusses theories and models of the term structure of interest rates. It covers spot and forward rates, the swap rate curve, traditional theories like expectations theory and liquidity preference theory, modern term structure models like CIR and Vasicek, yield curve factor models, and measures of sensitivity to shifts in the yield curve like duration.
MF0015 - INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENTsmumbahelp
This document provides information about getting fully solved assignments. It instructs students to send their semester and specialization name to an email address or call a phone number to receive assistance with assignments. It then provides an example of an assignment question related to international financial management that covers topics like forward markets, interest rate parity, cash concentration strategies, and international taxation. The assignment asks students to answer 6 questions in approximately 400 words each and provides an evaluation scheme for each question.
This document provides an overview of money and banking concepts. It discusses the characteristics of money, the functions of money, and components of the money supply. It also describes the US financial system including financial institutions like commercial banks and the Federal Reserve System. The role of the Fed in controlling the money supply and conducting monetary policy is explained. Finally, the document discusses changing banking technologies and the roles of international banking organizations.
An analytical and theoretical investigation of the determinants ofAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the determinants of deposit money banks' investments in treasury bills in Nigeria from 1970-2009. It finds that five variables (treasury bill rate, total loans and advances, total deposit liabilities, average lending rate, average liquidity ratio) explain 97% of variations in banks' treasury bill investments. Total deposit liabilities have the greatest influence, while total loans and advances have the least. It recommends that banks improve deposit mobilization strategies and that regulatory authorities make treasury bill rates more attractive to banks.
“Over” and “Under” Valued Financial Institutions: Evidence from a “Fair-Value...Ilias Lekkos
The aim of the study is to present our approach that allows us to evaluate relative over- and under-valuation of financial institutions based on the distance between their market-based price to book ratios and our estimated "fair-value" P/Bs.
The document discusses the term structure of interest rates, which refers to how interest rates vary with the maturity or term of a bond. Specifically:
1) It examines why practically homogeneous bonds of different maturities have different interest rates, which is significant for both borrowers and lenders when deciding whether to invest in short-term vs long-term bonds.
2) It defines the yield curve as a graphical depiction of the relationship between yield and maturity for bonds of the same credit quality. The term structure of interest rates shows this relationship for zero-coupon bonds.
3) To construct the term structure, theoretical spot rates must be derived from yields on actual Treasury securities, since zero-coupon Treasuries only
Investment habits during High & Low Interest ratesR VISHWANATHAN
1) Knowledge of interest rates is important for retail bankers to guide customers on investment options and pitch products effectively. Interest rates impact the performance of investments and what options make sense for customers.
2) When interest rates are high, options like fixed maturity plans, non-convertible debentures, and corporate bonds provide higher returns. When rates are low, investments like certificates of deposits, stocks, and home loans allow taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs.
3) For bankers, understanding how interest rates affect the economy, the factors that influence them, and how the Reserve Bank of India uses them as a policy tool helps them advise customers appropriately.
This document discusses money supply and the banking system. It defines different measures of money supply (M1, M2, M3, M4) and explains how money is created through the banking system. Banks act as intermediaries that accept deposits and create money through lending. This expands the money supply through the money multiplier process. The money supply is determined by factors like public behavior, commercial bank behavior, and central bank influence. The money market reaches equilibrium where the demand for money equals the supply.
This document discusses negative interest rates, which occur when depositors have to pay to keep their money in banks rather than receiving interest. It provides context on how central banks implement negative rates by charging commercial banks fees on deposits. The goal is to encourage lending to stimulate the economy. Countries that have adopted negative rates include Japan, European nations using the euro, Sweden, and Denmark. While intended to boost spending, negative rates may reduce bank profits and lower returns for pension and insurance funds. The impact on different economies has been mixed, as deflation can undermine the effectiveness of negative rates in raising prices.
The document discusses money and banking systems. It defines money and describes the functions of money. It explains the different components that make up the money supply, including M-1 and M-2. It discusses various financial institutions like commercial banks and what services they provide. It then focuses on the financial system and central bank of Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan, outlining its roles and responsibilities, including overseeing monetary policy and using tools like reserve requirements, discount rates, and open market operations. It concludes by briefly defining the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Predicting Credit Card Defaults using Machine Learning AlgorithmsSagar Tupkar
This is a project that I worked on as a Capstone for my Masters in Business Analytics program at the University of Cincinnati. In this project, I have performed an end-to-end data mining exercise including data cleaning, distribution analysis, exploratory data analysis, model building etc. to identify and predict Credit Card defaults using Customer's data on past payments and general profile. In the process for building Machine Learning models, I have fit and compared the performance of multiple models and algorithms like Logistic Regreesion, PCA, Classification tree, AdaBoost Classifier, ANN and LDA.
Microeconomics considers the behavior of individuals, households, and firms in making economic decisions with scarce resources. It contrasts with macroeconomics which looks at the overall economy. Supply and demand determine the price in a market where producers and consumers interact. Demand depends on price, income, and preferences, and is usually inversely related to price. Supply depends on price, costs, and objectives, and is usually directly related to price. The equilibrium price is where supply and demand are equal.
This slideshow briefs about Barter system including qualities, value, types and functions of money. This also briefs about concept of liquidity and concept of demand for money.
Interest rates play an important role in determining a country's liquidity position. Higher interest rates aim to decrease liquidity in the economy by increasing savings. Lower interest rates increase liquidity by making capital more accessible and encouraging borrowing. Theories of interest rate determination include the classical theory that real factors like savings and investment determine rates, and the Keynesian theory that interest rates are a monetary phenomenon influenced by the money supply. Different interest rates exist based on the maturity of financial instruments.
This document discusses using survival analysis to model customer churn. It explains what customer lifetime value is and why it is important. It then covers how survival analysis can be used to predict when customers will churn rather than just whether they will churn. The document outlines the methodology used, including data cleaning, defining churn, and graphing results. It also covers parametric survival models and evaluating different survival distributions. The conclusions state that survival analysis provides powerful insights into how attrition risk changes over time.
A Review On Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity Model Under ShortageBrandi Gonzales
This document provides a review of fuzzy economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory models that consider shortage situations. It begins with an introduction to EOQ models and their traditional assumptions. It then discusses how fuzzy set theory has been applied to inventory models to account for uncertain parameters. Several studies have developed fuzzy inventory models where constraints, parameters, or goals are represented as fuzzy numbers or sets. The document reviews literature on fuzzy EOQ models that incorporate either full or partial backlogging during shortages. The purpose is to provide an overview of existing fuzzy inventory models under shortage and identify opportunities for future research addressing real-world supply uncertainties.
This document outlines the key topics and goals for a lecture on financial markets. The lecture will provide an overview of financial markets, monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and the core principles of financial markets according to Stephen Cecchetti. It will discuss the stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, and commodities market. Other topics covered include financial intermediaries, monetary policy, and the five core principles of the time value of money, risk and return, the role of information, how markets work, and the importance of stability. The goal is for students to understand how financial markets and monetary policy work and to learn concepts that will be useful for both the short and long term.
Participation of Japanese regional Banks in International Syndicated LoansMasaki Yamaguchi
The recent internationalization trend among Japanese regional banks is a topic of interest for researchers in the context of regional bank growth strategy. This paper examines the factors that explain the lending behavior of regional banks in the international syndicated loan market during the period from 2009 to 2014. Through a comparative analysis and probit model using data from 10,717 transactions, it is found that regional banks prefer to participate in syndicated loans of lower amounts. The denomination of loans in Japanese yen is the most important factor in increasing the probability that regional banks will participate in these loans. The second most important consideration in explaining the lending behavior of regional banks relates to the characteristics of the borrowers. Regional banks prefer Asian borrowers that are in the financial services industry. Risk-taking and funding capacities can explain the characteristics of regional banks.
The document discusses the functions and components of the US monetary system. It defines the different measures of money supply (M1, M2, M3) and describes the types of assets included in each measure. It also explains the components of the Federal Reserve System and how the Fed controls the money supply through tools like open market operations, reserve requirements and interest rates. Finally, it provides an overview of how changes in the money supply impact interest rates in the money market.
35 page the term structure and interest rate dynamicsShahid Jnu
The document discusses theories and models of the term structure of interest rates. It covers spot and forward rates, the swap rate curve, traditional theories like expectations theory and liquidity preference theory, modern term structure models like CIR and Vasicek, yield curve factor models, and measures of sensitivity to shifts in the yield curve like duration.
MF0015 - INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENTsmumbahelp
This document provides information about getting fully solved assignments. It instructs students to send their semester and specialization name to an email address or call a phone number to receive assistance with assignments. It then provides an example of an assignment question related to international financial management that covers topics like forward markets, interest rate parity, cash concentration strategies, and international taxation. The assignment asks students to answer 6 questions in approximately 400 words each and provides an evaluation scheme for each question.
This document provides an overview of money and banking concepts. It discusses the characteristics of money, the functions of money, and components of the money supply. It also describes the US financial system including financial institutions like commercial banks and the Federal Reserve System. The role of the Fed in controlling the money supply and conducting monetary policy is explained. Finally, the document discusses changing banking technologies and the roles of international banking organizations.
An analytical and theoretical investigation of the determinants ofAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the determinants of deposit money banks' investments in treasury bills in Nigeria from 1970-2009. It finds that five variables (treasury bill rate, total loans and advances, total deposit liabilities, average lending rate, average liquidity ratio) explain 97% of variations in banks' treasury bill investments. Total deposit liabilities have the greatest influence, while total loans and advances have the least. It recommends that banks improve deposit mobilization strategies and that regulatory authorities make treasury bill rates more attractive to banks.
“Over” and “Under” Valued Financial Institutions: Evidence from a “Fair-Value...Ilias Lekkos
The aim of the study is to present our approach that allows us to evaluate relative over- and under-valuation of financial institutions based on the distance between their market-based price to book ratios and our estimated "fair-value" P/Bs.
The document discusses the term structure of interest rates, which refers to how interest rates vary with the maturity or term of a bond. Specifically:
1) It examines why practically homogeneous bonds of different maturities have different interest rates, which is significant for both borrowers and lenders when deciding whether to invest in short-term vs long-term bonds.
2) It defines the yield curve as a graphical depiction of the relationship between yield and maturity for bonds of the same credit quality. The term structure of interest rates shows this relationship for zero-coupon bonds.
3) To construct the term structure, theoretical spot rates must be derived from yields on actual Treasury securities, since zero-coupon Treasuries only
Investment habits during High & Low Interest ratesR VISHWANATHAN
1) Knowledge of interest rates is important for retail bankers to guide customers on investment options and pitch products effectively. Interest rates impact the performance of investments and what options make sense for customers.
2) When interest rates are high, options like fixed maturity plans, non-convertible debentures, and corporate bonds provide higher returns. When rates are low, investments like certificates of deposits, stocks, and home loans allow taking advantage of cheaper borrowing costs.
3) For bankers, understanding how interest rates affect the economy, the factors that influence them, and how the Reserve Bank of India uses them as a policy tool helps them advise customers appropriately.
This document discusses money supply and the banking system. It defines different measures of money supply (M1, M2, M3, M4) and explains how money is created through the banking system. Banks act as intermediaries that accept deposits and create money through lending. This expands the money supply through the money multiplier process. The money supply is determined by factors like public behavior, commercial bank behavior, and central bank influence. The money market reaches equilibrium where the demand for money equals the supply.
This document discusses negative interest rates, which occur when depositors have to pay to keep their money in banks rather than receiving interest. It provides context on how central banks implement negative rates by charging commercial banks fees on deposits. The goal is to encourage lending to stimulate the economy. Countries that have adopted negative rates include Japan, European nations using the euro, Sweden, and Denmark. While intended to boost spending, negative rates may reduce bank profits and lower returns for pension and insurance funds. The impact on different economies has been mixed, as deflation can undermine the effectiveness of negative rates in raising prices.
The document discusses money and banking systems. It defines money and describes the functions of money. It explains the different components that make up the money supply, including M-1 and M-2. It discusses various financial institutions like commercial banks and what services they provide. It then focuses on the financial system and central bank of Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan, outlining its roles and responsibilities, including overseeing monetary policy and using tools like reserve requirements, discount rates, and open market operations. It concludes by briefly defining the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Predicting Credit Card Defaults using Machine Learning AlgorithmsSagar Tupkar
This is a project that I worked on as a Capstone for my Masters in Business Analytics program at the University of Cincinnati. In this project, I have performed an end-to-end data mining exercise including data cleaning, distribution analysis, exploratory data analysis, model building etc. to identify and predict Credit Card defaults using Customer's data on past payments and general profile. In the process for building Machine Learning models, I have fit and compared the performance of multiple models and algorithms like Logistic Regreesion, PCA, Classification tree, AdaBoost Classifier, ANN and LDA.
Microeconomics considers the behavior of individuals, households, and firms in making economic decisions with scarce resources. It contrasts with macroeconomics which looks at the overall economy. Supply and demand determine the price in a market where producers and consumers interact. Demand depends on price, income, and preferences, and is usually inversely related to price. Supply depends on price, costs, and objectives, and is usually directly related to price. The equilibrium price is where supply and demand are equal.
This slideshow briefs about Barter system including qualities, value, types and functions of money. This also briefs about concept of liquidity and concept of demand for money.
Interest rates play an important role in determining a country's liquidity position. Higher interest rates aim to decrease liquidity in the economy by increasing savings. Lower interest rates increase liquidity by making capital more accessible and encouraging borrowing. Theories of interest rate determination include the classical theory that real factors like savings and investment determine rates, and the Keynesian theory that interest rates are a monetary phenomenon influenced by the money supply. Different interest rates exist based on the maturity of financial instruments.
This document discusses using survival analysis to model customer churn. It explains what customer lifetime value is and why it is important. It then covers how survival analysis can be used to predict when customers will churn rather than just whether they will churn. The document outlines the methodology used, including data cleaning, defining churn, and graphing results. It also covers parametric survival models and evaluating different survival distributions. The conclusions state that survival analysis provides powerful insights into how attrition risk changes over time.
A Review On Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity Model Under ShortageBrandi Gonzales
This document provides a review of fuzzy economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory models that consider shortage situations. It begins with an introduction to EOQ models and their traditional assumptions. It then discusses how fuzzy set theory has been applied to inventory models to account for uncertain parameters. Several studies have developed fuzzy inventory models where constraints, parameters, or goals are represented as fuzzy numbers or sets. The document reviews literature on fuzzy EOQ models that incorporate either full or partial backlogging during shortages. The purpose is to provide an overview of existing fuzzy inventory models under shortage and identify opportunities for future research addressing real-world supply uncertainties.
Predicting Bank Customer Churn Using ClassificationVishva Abeyrathne
This document describes a study that used classification models to predict customer churn for a bank. The authors collected a dataset of 10,000 bank customers from Kaggle and preprocessed the data. They then explored relationships between features and the target variable of whether a customer churned. Two classification models were tested - KNN and Decision Tree. After hyperparameter tuning, Decision Tree achieved the best accuracy of 84.25%, outperforming KNN. However, both models struggled to accurately predict customers who would churn. The authors concluded Decision Tree was the best model but recommend collecting more data on churning customers.
This document describes a study that used classification models to predict customer churn for a bank. The authors collected a dataset of 10,000 bank customers with 14 features from Kaggle and preprocessed the data. They explored relationships between features and the target (churn) variable. Two classifiers were tested - KNN and decision tree. After hyperparameter tuning, the decision tree model achieved the best accuracy of 84.25%, outperforming KNN. However, both models predicted churn (class 1) less accurately than non-churn (class 0). The decision tree was selected as the best overall model despite its weakness in predicting churn.
Exponential Growth: Case Studies for Sustainability EducationToni Menninger
The document discusses case studies and exercises for teaching sustainability concepts like exponential growth. It contains practice problems and real-world examples exploring population growth, resource use, food production, and economic growth over time. Students will apply quantitative analysis techniques like calculating growth rates and creating linear and logarithmic graphs to analyze datasets and better understand issues of scaling and limits to growth.
This document contains questions about system dynamics modeling concepts like stocks, flows, causal loop diagrams, stock and flow diagrams, and reference modes. It asks the reader to identify which variables are stocks and flows in various contexts, draw causal loop and stock and flow diagrams to represent different systems, and build a simple stock and flow model to represent population growth and health sector development over time.
This document provides an introduction to panel data analysis and regression models for panel data. It defines panel data as longitudinal data collected on the same units (like individuals, firms, countries) over multiple time periods. Panel data allow researchers to study changes over time and estimate causal effects. The document outlines common panel data structures, reasons for using panel data analysis, and basic estimation techniques like fixed effects and random effects models to account for unobserved heterogeneity across units. It also discusses assumptions and limitations of different panel data models.
Pin On Sample Sop For Masters In Engineering MaCarla Potier
The document discusses steps for requesting writing assistance from HelpWriting.net. It outlines the registration process, how to submit a request including instructions and deadlines, and how writers bid on requests. It notes the platform uses a bidding system and clients can choose a writer based on qualifications, history, and feedback. It states clients can request revisions to ensure satisfaction, and the company guarantees original, high-quality content or a full refund.
Predictive analytics uses past data to forecast future outcomes. The document discusses various predictive analytics techniques including simple forecasting methods, decision trees, and regression. Simple forecasting techniques like moving averages are easiest to implement but lack explanatory power, while decision trees and regression provide more accurate predictions at an individual level but require more complex deployment. The key is selecting the right technique based on the problem, data, and ability to implement predictive models in real-world applications.
003 Critique Essay Example Of Research Paper 131380 ~ Thatsnotus. Criticism Essay | Id | Psychoanalysis. Sample Story For Critiquing / Editor Manuscript Critique Sample Word .... Guide on Writing a Book Critique | Book Critique Example.
This document summarizes a master's thesis project that investigates using break-point analysis to predict bankruptcy risk. The project was motivated by weaknesses in previous bankruptcy prediction studies, namely that they did not consider the timing of financial data or rates of change. The project applies Bayesian change-point (break-point) analysis to financial ratios of firms, to identify significant changes that may indicate distress. If break-points are found closer to a firm's bankruptcy, it could improve prediction compared to only considering financial ratio levels. The document describes the data, analytical methods, and preliminary exploration and application of break-point analysis to the ratios.
The document discusses the importance of data quality, proper use of statistics, and correct interpretation of results in statistical analysis. It provides a 3 step approach: 1) Ensuring high quality data by addressing issues like missing values and outliers. 2) Appropriate use of statistical techniques after defining the variables and objectives clearly. Considering issues like correlation, normality, and model assumptions. 3) Careful interpretation of results while preserving the multidimensional nature of phenomena and considering partial correlations between variables. It emphasizes the need for collaboration between data miners, statisticians and domain experts for successful knowledge discovery.
EOQ Inventory Models for Deteriorating Item with Weibull Deterioration and Ti...ijceronline
This paper develops an EOQ inventory model for deterioratingitemswith two parameters Weibull deterioration. Shortages are permissible andpartially backlogged. In this model we consider time varying quadratic holding cost and ramp-type demand. The model is developed under two different replenishment policies: (i) Starting with no shortages (ii) Starting with shortages.The aim of this study is to find the optimal solutiontominimizing the total inventory costs for both the above mentioned strategies. To elevate the model a numerical example has been carried out and a sensitivity analysis occurred to study the result of parameters on essential variables and the entire cost of this model.
Additional note on Audit sampling Draw final conclusionsztariku
The purpose of audit sampling is to draw inferences about the entire population
(the reported inventory account balance in the example above) from the results
of a sample. Using just the information provided above, what is your best estimate of the misstatement in the inventory account balance? In Chapter 8 our best
estimate of the population deviation rate for control testing was the sample deviation rate. Similarly, when using audit sampling to test account balances, we will
want to project the misstatement observed in the sample to the population. In the
example above, the observed misstatement could be projected to the population
by computing the ratio of misstatement to the total dollars sampled: 2 percent
($2,000 $100,000). Applying this ratio to the entire account balance produces a
best estimate or projected misstatement in the inventory account of $60,000 (2%
$3,000,000). If your best estimate is that the account is overstated by $60,000,
do you believe the account is fairly stated? The answer to this question, like
many questions in auditing is, “it depends.” It depends in part on the amount
of misstatement that can be tolerated for the inventory account. If the amount
of misstatement that can be tolerated for this account is $50,000, then we
cannot conclude that the account is fairly stated because our best estimate (or
projected misstatement) is higher than the amount we can tolerate. What if tolerable misstatement was $110,000; would you conclude that the account is fairly
stated? The answer is again, “it depends.” Whenever sampling is used, the evaluation must include an allowance for sampling risk. When sampling is used to
estimate monetary misstatement, an upper and lower confidence bound or misstatement limit must be established as an allowance for sampling risk. In the
above example, the misstatement in the population could be $60,000, but it also
might be higher or lower because the estimate is based on a sample. If tolerable
misstatement is $110,000, and the upper limit on the account’s possible misstatement is less than $110,000, then the account is considered fairly stated. The size
of the upper limit on misstatement is largely dependent on the sample size, which
is also directly related to the desired confidence level. You may remember from your statistics courses using concepts such as
“standard deviation” and a “normal distribution” (i.e., Z scores or confidence
coefficients) to compute confidence limits and intervals. This traditional statistical
approach is used for classical variables sampling, which is covered in the
Advanced Module. Before personal computers were commonly available, themathematical complexity of classical variable sampling was problematic for
auditors. In response, auditors developed an audit sampling approach for testing
balances called monetary-unit sampling. Monetary-unit sampling is based on
attribute-sampling concepts. While the computations involved in classical variables sampling can now
1. Load the Titanic passenger data and explore the variables like gender, age, class, etc.
2. Use statistical and visual techniques to find relationships between survival and other attributes.
3. Build predictive models to estimate the probability of survival based on attributes like gender, age, class. Test the models to evaluate accuracy.
Here are the steps to improve the accuracy and precision of measurements:
1. Calibrate equipment regularly using standard samples of known mass/volume. This reduces systematic error.
2. Use appropriate precision tools - e.g. measuring cylinders for liquids, not beakers. This reduces random error.
3. Take multiple measurements and report the average. This reduces the effect of random error.
4. Record measurements to an appropriate number of significant figures based on the precision of the tool. This communicates the level of uncertainty.
5. Consider and report possible sources of error, both systematic and random. This provides full context for the results.
Following these steps helps produce measurements that are both accurate to
This document provides an overview of time series analysis and cross-sectional analysis. It defines both approaches and discusses their goals, types, components, techniques, and advantages/disadvantages. For time series analysis, it describes trends, seasonality, cycles, and irregular variations as the main components. Common techniques mentioned include Box-Jenkins ARIMA models and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing. Advantages include the ability to study trends over time, while disadvantages relate to issues like missing data, measurement error, and changing patterns. The document then covers cross-sectional analysis and provides a comparison of the two approaches.
Similar to Core deposits sensitivity and survival analysis (18)
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Duba...mayaclinic18
Whatsapp (+971581248768) Buy Abortion Pills In Dubai/ Qatar/Kuwait/Doha/Abu Dhabi/Alain/RAK City/Satwa/Al Ain/Abortion Pills For Sale In Qatar, Doha. Abu az Zuluf. Abu Thaylah. Ad Dawhah al Jadidah. Al Arish, Al Bida ash Sharqiyah, Al Ghanim, Al Ghuwariyah, Qatari, Abu Dhabi, Dubai.. WHATSAPP +971)581248768 Abortion Pills / Cytotec Tablets Available in Dubai, Sharjah, Abudhabi, Ajman, Alain, Fujeira, Ras Al Khaima, Umm Al Quwain., UAE, buy cytotec in Dubai– Where I can buy abortion pills in Dubai,+971582071918where I can buy abortion pills in Abudhabi +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Sharjah,+97158207191 8where I can buy abortion pills in Ajman, +971)581248768 where I can buy abortion pills in Umm al Quwain +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Fujairah +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Ras al Khaimah +971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in Alain+971)581248768 , where I can buy abortion pills in UAE +971)581248768 we are providing cytotec 200mg abortion pill in dubai, uae.Medication abortion offers an alternative to Surgical Abortion for women in the early weeks of pregnancy. Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman Fujairah Ras Al Khaimah%^^%$Zone1:+971)581248768’][* Legit & Safe #Abortion #Pills #For #Sale In #Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharjah Deira Ajman
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
3. Research question 1b
• Question 1b. How can we predict the length of time a
person will keep a core account open (account duration)?
We cannot simply compute an average of account
durations because we do not know how far into the future
current accounts will “survive.” Simple means will
produce a negatively biased estimate.
• Perhaps we can revise our question to read, “What is the
probability a person will keep an account open for a
specific period of time?” This new question allows us to
use survival analysis, hazard probabilities, and risk
functions to get a detailed picture of account duration.
4. Question 1b (continued)
• Can we create a model using time and other
indictors (e.g. interest rate or change in the interest
rate on the account) as predictors of account
duration? This is a more sophisticated question for
another time…food for thought for now…
5. Question 1c
• 1c – How can we summarize typical account
duration with a single index? Remember means and
other simple average indices will not do the trick
because we do not know how long accounts will stay
open…
6. What is the best statistical tool for
answering each question?
• Question 1a – to visually summarize duration use a
histogram of the frequency of duration for censored
and uncensored accounts. I’ll show you how to do
this.
• Question 1b - To predict duration, use survival
analysis.
• Question 1c – for a single index, we can use median
lifetime survival probability…more on this…
7. Background for Study
• 1. Use a multi-cohort analysis such as accounts
opened between 1972 and 1977 and studied until
1984.
• 2. Measure duration of each account.
• 3. Predict length of time until a given event, in this
case, closing of the account.
• 4. Some people will not close the account within the
time period of observation. These people (accounts)
are considered to be censored.
22. Research Question 2
for Next Time…
• Question 2. How can we predict core deposit interest
rates?
• A. from prime interest rate?
• B. from market interest rate?
• 1. Can we predict core deposit interest rate from 3 month
LIBOR (one index of market interest rate)?
• 2. from lagged LIBOR indices?
• 3. Are there other market interest rate indices we want to
include to predict core deposit interest rate?
Editor's Notes
Explanation of computation of the risk set at each time period. This explanation won’t be needed until a few slides ahead, but I put it here because the visual image helps us understand the idea. At time 1 (one year) the number of accounts in the risk set is the number in all 18 bars added together. Imagine stacking all the bars on top of the 456 accounts that are uncensored and that closed after 1 year. The “hazard probability’ of experiencing the event of importance (closing) is 456/total of all bars or 456/3941.
At each time period up until period 7 (these accounts have been open 7 years) we compute the “hazard probability” the same way, by dividing the number of accounts that close that year (red bar) by all the sum of all the remaining bars…the red and yellow bars for that time period (here it is year 7) plus all those to the right of that time period.
The odd thing that happens, however, when we go from period 7 to period 8 is the censored cases from period 7 seem to suddenly disappear from the numerator of the hazard probability coefficient. Why? Because these accounts are no longer in the risk set. But they didn’t drop out of the risk set because of closed accounts, they dropped out of the risk set because they were part of a later cohort that was only studied for 7 years.
You can see on this graph that hazard probability gets smaller as people keep the account open longer. In other words, the risk of closing an account is about 12% after the first year, but drops to about 1% after 12 years.
Median lifetime survivor probability can be found by drawing a horizontal line across the graph at .5 survivor probability. When you hit the survivor function, drop a line straight down the duration of accounts at this point (6.6) is the median lifetime survivor probability of accounts for this sample. In other words, half of the accounts will “survive” this long. And this includes the information about the censored accounts (the ones that are still open at the time when we stopped gathering our observations.)