This document outlines a risk treatment methodology for the re-development of the QHD 36-2 oil field in Bohai Bay, China by CNOOC and Chevron. It proposes a six-stage project risk management process to identify risks, analyze them qualitatively and quantitatively, and develop risk treatment strategies. Key elements include identifying risk parameters, conducting Monte Carlo simulations to assess cost and schedule impacts, and establishing an ongoing risk management process.

1. CNOOC / CVX - BOHAI BAY (PRC)
QHD 36 - 2 OIL FIELD RE-DEVELOPMENT
TECOP (Technical, Economic, Commercial, Organisational, Political)
Corporate Risks
R I S K T R E AT M E N T M E T H O D O L O G Y
Prepared by Angus Macleod MAPM. : conforming to ISO.IEC 31010:2009

2. Upstream Field Development - Risk Areas in Life-Cycle
for Capital Value Assurance (example only)

3. Risk Management – Business Risk Strategy
for Project Execution
Define Risk Management Business Level Strategy as below

4. Risk Management – Business Risk Tactical Strategy
for Project Execution
Define Risk Management Tactical Strategy as below

5. Risk Management – Business Risk Execution Strategy
for Project Execution
Define Risk Management Execution Strategy as below

6. Risk Management – Business Management Strategy
for Project Execution

7. Risk Management – Business Risk Response Strategy
for Project Execution

8. Risk Management – Assessment Process
for Project Execution

9. Define Project Risk Management an integral part of the Project Management Process
Proposed Risk Management Process – Introduction

10. Define Project Risk Management Process as below
Proposed Risk Management Process – Introduction

11. Identify some key elements to obtain Risk Parameters and implement the results for
Upstream Project Management Decision Making
Proposed Risk Management Process – Key Elements

12. Identified Project Risk Management Process as a Six Stage Cycle
Proposed Risk Management Process – Life Cycle

13. Identify the relationships between 6 stage Project Risk Management Process
Total Schedule Effect / Cost (+ / -) of Risk
Proposed Risk Management Process – Relationship

14. Consolidate Risks and Collect p10,p50,p90 estimates
Develop a flowchart to map the Risk Process & Methodologies
mitigation owned by
Project Function
(Subsurface, Drilling,
Facilities, Project Controls)
Proposed Risk Management Process – Flowchart

15. Methodology – Qualitative Risk Categories – Develop
Risk
Category
SupplyChain
Performance
Supply Chain
Disuption

16. Methodology – Qualitative Scoring System – Develop

17. Methodology – Qualitative Risk Scoring Index – Develop

18. and consequences
Methodology Qualitative Risk Analysis
Develop “Boston Square Matrix ” technique to model Qualitative Risk Probability / Impact
LEGEND

19. Quantative Risk Analysis
calculated ouput from
MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS will indicate
which COST / SCHEDULE elements
contribute to contingency creation
and which RISK CATEGORIES

20. Defintion / Role of Monte Carlo Simulation Quantitative Risk Analyses

21. Establish Risk Management as a “Continuous” Management Process
Methodology Continuous Improvement Cycle

22. INSERT RISK OUTPUTS FROM WORKED EXAMPLES.
TBC
CONFIDENTI
AL ACCESS