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Conclusion and the Future of Manufacturing (2.008x Lecture Slides)
- 1. 2.008x Conclusion …and the Future of Manufacturing MIT 2.008x Prof. John Hart Department of Mechanical Engineering Lab for Manufacturing and Productivity at MIT
- 2. 2.008x Agenda § Recap of 2.008x § Manufacturing is a dynamic global ecosystem § What is the future of manufacturing? § What is your future in Manufacturing?
- 3. 2.008x2.008x § Machining § Injection molding § Thermoforming § Sheetmetal forming § Casting § Additive manufacturing § Forging § Coatings § Printing (2D) § Semiconductors § … § Robotics § Mechanical fits § Joining (e.g., welding, adhesives) § Material handling and automation § Quality and variation § Cost § Sustainability § Systems § Metrology § Logistics and sourcing
- 5. 2.008x Excerpt from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA5tkcrkMVA See also the ‘Scorpion’ (solder paste jetting): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ-Kq2Gkm5Y High-speed pick-and-place
- 6. 2.008x - For each unit process, what determines each attribute? - How can we improve any or all? (all are coupled!) - What is “good enough”? Who cares and why?
- 7. 2.008x Process-shape compatibility Figure 14.5, M.F. Ashby, Materials Selection in Mechanical Design
- 8. 2.008x Conclusion: 2 Manufacturing is a dynamic global ecosystem
- 9. 2.008x Front-facing camera Faceplate Screen (flipped) Camera Battery Logic board Housing iPhone 6 chassis assembly Modified from: https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/DSCkX6EfcARJYOHa.hug
- 10. 2.008x
- 11. 2.008x
- 13. 2.008x From http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20101119000102&cid=1102 Foxconn's largest factory worldwide is in Longhua, Shenzhen, where hundreds of thousands of workers (varying counts include 230,000, 300,000, and 450,000) are employed… sometimes referred to as “Foxconn City”. Covering about 1.16 square miles (3 square km), it includes 15 factories, worker dormitories, a swimming pool, a fire brigade, its own television network (Foxconn TV), and a city centre with a grocery store, bank, restaurants, bookstore, and hospital.
- 15. 2.008x Quantity of loaded freight in international maritime trade from 1970 to 2014 (million tons) 2,605 9,842 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quantityinmilliontonsloaded Data from http://www.statista.com/statistics/234698/loaded- freight-in-international-maritime-trade-since-1970/ Port of Oakland, CA (December 2014)
- 18. 2.008x Conclusion: 3 What is the future of manufacturing?
- 20. 2.008x Advanced Manufacturing: value at scale
- 21. 2.008x 66 B.P. Conner et al. / Additive Manufacturing 1–4 (2014) 64–76 Fig. 2. Three axis model of manufactured products. single part is produced, tooling and fixturing must be fabricated resulting in both lead times of weeks or even months and signif- icant investment in tooling costs [8]. Examples of tooling and fixturing include dies for injection molding of plastics or stamp- this is a large enough volu tion of manufacturing proc model, it is best advised to u that best suits the industry. 10,000 parts per year or le the map defined as low v are substantial for low vol for tooling and fixturing ar ricate the product itself. E would include product prot tured, high value parts for or satellites, and tooling and conventionalprocesses,com tations of conventional man to reduce the number of fa cost. The genesis of additive m with the concept of rapid technology, stereolithograp tion), was invented, in par prototypes to support desi processes became more p for nesting of parts) and and more durable, rapid prototyping to include fun Cube chart from Conner et al. Additive Manufacturing, 2014
- 22. 2.008x New robotics and augmented workers Kiva Systems / Amazon Robotics Rethink Robotics https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/04/bmw-3d-prints-new-thumbs-for-factory-workers Also see: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause- mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-tools-turn-manufacturing-workers- into-robo-employees-1465351321 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9KPJlA5yds
- 23. 2.008x http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/micro-nanosystems/docs/fof-beyond-2013- workshop/westkaemper-manufuture_en.pdf Industry 1.0 Industry 2.0 Industry 3.0 Industry 4.0 From http://saphanatutorial.com/industry-4-0/
- 24. 2.008x
- 25. 2.008x Advanced Materials Advanced batteries (Tesla, Panasonic, 24M, others) 3D particles for drug delivery (Liquidia) Carbon nanotube composites and wires (Nanocomp, Cambridge, others) Quantum dots in LEDs and TVs (QDVision, Sony, LG, others) High-strength aluminum (Alcoa) Carbon fiber composites (Boeing) http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/alcoa-signs-largest-ever-deal-with-boeing-20140911 http://www.kinematics.com/about/newsletterarticleboeingandthe787.php
- 26. 2.008x Waste, sustainability, and the life cycle… http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/22/11991440/eri-e-waste-electronics-recycling-nyc-gadget-trash?goal=0_997ed6f472-378db09ae5- 153914201&mc_cid=378db09ae5&mc_eid=80eb35dc6c
- 27. 2.008x How do we envision the future of manufacturing? § Understand the drivers (pulls) for more and better manufacturing, i.e., more people and limited resources, aging population, labor cost, energy supply/cost, growth in air travel, etc… § Project manufacturing-related technology trends (e.g., AM, robotics, software) and their intersections. § Forecast how the above will influence how we design and make products in the future, and how business models will evolve.
- 28. 2.008x Conclusion: 4 What is your future in manufacturing?
- 29. 2.008x How can your career influence manufacturing (and vice-versa)? § Work for a company in product design, engineering, or manufacturing. § Take part in a startup working anywhere along the design and manufacturing value chain. § Create new materials to be manufactured. § Advise others on how to improve their manufacturing operations. § Invent new and/or improved manufacturing processes. § Help translate designs to scale (e.g., Bolt, Dragon, PCH). § Work globally to grow the manufacturing infrastructure and ecosystem. § …and more!
- 30. 2.008x Some further reading IBM: The New Software-Defined Supply Chain § http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/software-defined-supply- chain/ Deloitte University Press: The Future of Manufacturing § http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/future-of- manufacturing.html National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (USA) § http://manufacturing.gov Media Sources § The Economist, e.g., § http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21637355-freelance-workers-available-moments-notice-will- reshape-nature-companies-and § http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass- unemployment-automation-and-anxiety § Wall Street Journal, MIT Technology Review, BBC, New York Times § Spencer Wright’s Blog and Newsletter, ‘The Prepared’ § http://pencerw.com/the-prepared/ § Blogs by companies including GE, Bolt, Fictiv, PCH, … URLs active as of June 29, 2016
- 31. 2.008x
- 32. 2.008x The end.
- 33. 2.008x References 1 Conclusion MIT dome in LEGO: photo by Maia Weinstock © MIT. Industrial smoke stack: photo © Verena J. Matthew on 123rf.com Video excerpt of hot open die forging: Video Copyright © 2010 Kihlberg Steel AB. Video excerpt of a high speed pick and place machine © 2016 Essemtec Switzerland Image of Essemtec Paraquda pick and place machine © 2016 EFY Group Tabular representation of process cababilities: Figure 14.5 from "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th Edition)" by Michael Ashby; Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann; Copyright © 2016 Knovel Corporation. All rights reserved. 2 Global Ecosystem iPhone 6: Image © 2000-2016 GSMArena.com iPhone 6 exploded view © 2016 iFixit Screenshot of Boston Globe article from November 15, 2015 © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC Analog Devices Inc location on Google Maps, Massachusetts: Photo © Google, Inc.
- 34. 2.008x References Analog Devices Satellite/Earth view: Photo © Google, Inc. Map of the world outlining the shipment of iPhone components: Image by David Niblack, Imagebase.net. Google map of Shenzhen China: Photo © Google, Inc. Article Photo by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0 Foxconn facility: Photo © RouterUnlock.com Foxconn factory, New York Times article Photo by Thomas Lee © 2016 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved Image of Sony Xperia screens by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0 Paragraph excerpt: Content by Joi Ito. (CC BY) 4. Port of Oakland CA in December 2014 © John Hart Labor cost indexed to cost of labor in 2000 for select countries: Image from the United States Department of Commerce. This work is in the public domain. Screen shot of the New York Times article on increasing use of robots from April 24, 2015: Article © 2016 The New York Times Company
- 35. 2.008x References Screenshot of BBC article regarding Foxconn's venture into robotics, May 25, 2016: Image Copyright © 2016 BBC. 3 Future of Manufacturing Interview with David E Hart © David E Hardt 2016. Used with permission. Interview with Larissa Nietner © Larissa Nietner 2016. Used with permission. Interview with Krystyn Van Vliet © Krystyn Van Vliet 2016. Used with permission. Interview with Elliot Owen © Elliot Owen 2016. Used with permission. Glass of water: Image © 2016 - Emergency Preparedness.org Water desalination facility Photo © F.D.W.A. All Rights reserved. Tesla: Photo © 2016 Hearst Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved. iPhone: Image © Apple Inc. Potato chip bag: Image on Foolishgadgets.com Frito-Lay chip production: Photo by Peter Desilva of the New York Times. © 2016 The New York Times Company. DePuy ASR hip implant: Image © DePuy Synthes 2014-2016. All rights reserved.
- 36. 2.008x References Hip replacement implant schematic: Image Copyright ©1995-2016 by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Three axis model of manufacturing space/products (Figure 2) and cost of manufactured product as a function of complexity, traditional vs additive manufacutring (Figure 6) from "Making sense of 3-D printing: Creating a map of additive manufacturing products and services" by Conner, et al., Additive Manufacturing (2014). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors X-ray of child airway and 3D printed airway and stent: Figure 1 from Title: Bioresorbable Airway Splint Created with a Three-Dimensional Printer; Authors: David A. Zopf, Scott J. Hollister, Marc E. Nelson, Richard G. Ohye, Glenn E. Green; Journal: New England Journal of Medicine; Volume: 368; Issue: 21; Year: May 2013; Pages: 2043-2045; Copyright © 2016 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved. Google Project Ara scatter phone components: Photo © Google, Inc. Google Ara phone: Photo © 2016 AOL Inc. All rights reserved. GE leap fuel nozzle picture Copyright © 2016 Penton Airbus group bracket EOS AM part: Image © 2016 Business Wire Rethink Robotics Baxter packaging robot: Image © 2016 NPR Baxter robot features: Image © 2016 MIT Technology Review
- 37. 2.008x References Robo-Glove designed to assist outer space workers: Photo by NASA.gov. This work is in the public domain. KIVA Systems robots in inventory warehouse: Photo by Bryan Badgley of Dawghause Photography. © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC Screenshots of BMW's Augmented Reality project video: Video © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved. Pictures of BMW's 3D printed power thumb © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved. Four phases of industrialization, industry 4.0 graphic: Image © 2016 : saphanatutorial.com, All rights reserved. ManuFuture-EU 2013 presentation slide 18, learning machines: Images by MANUFUTURE © Copyright 2004 CNR-ITIA. All rights reserved. Liquidia PRINT drug particles for aerosol dilivery: Image © 2016 American Chemical Society SONY Bravia TV: Image © 2016 SONY CORPORATION OF AMERICA 2012 Tesla model S: Image © Copyright 2016, SpiderCars, All Rights Reserved Nanocomp panels of carbon nanotubes Photo © Andrew Maynard, Arizona State University.
- 38. 2.008x References Electric motor with windings made of carbon nanotubes: Photo © Dr Krzysztof Koziol, Cambridge University. Alcoa high-strength aluminum production: Photo Copyright © 2016 Alcoa Inc. Measurement system for a Boeing 787 nose cone: Photo Copyright © 2016 New River Kinematics Video of waste pickup from iPhone © John Hart Images of e-cycling facility and quote from site The Verge: Article © 2016 Vox Media, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Your Future in Manufacturing Picture of 2.008 Yo-yo expo in Lobby 7 from Fall 2015 © John Hart Picture of 3D printed MIT dome in Professor Hart's hands © John Hart