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2.008x
Variation and Quality
MIT 2.008x
Prof. John Hart
Prof. Sanjay Sarma
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Quality: the relentless pursuit of perfection
Lexus, 1992: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AktHnnA9QIM
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Quality
Variation
Tolerance
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Quality: Conformity to
requirements or specifications.
In other words, the ability of a
product or service to consistently
meet customer needs.
Variation: A change in outcome
of a process.
Tolerance: Permissible limit of
variation of a process.
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What are the measures of
Lego quality?
Drawing from Clipstone, C. J., Hahn, S., Sonnenberg, N., White, C., and Zhuk,
A., 2004, “Razor blade technology.”
Blade edge:
https://scienceofsharp.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/astra_stainless_x_05.jpg
and for Gillette razors?
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Car body measurement using a CMM (Nikon)
Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5zXdSv60Ag
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Car body build variation: production launch
Figure 4 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction forAutomotive Body Assembly."
Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154.
2 mm body project: http://www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr-709.htm
6 standard deviations from the mean: 3.4 defects per million!
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Car body assembly hierarchy
Figure 5 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction forAutomotive Body Assembly."
Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154.
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What do we need to
know?
§ What the customer wants (i.e.
what is ‘good quality’) and how
to relate this to our
specifications.
§ How to quantify variation
(statistically).
§ What causes process variation,
and how to minimize variation
as needed.
§ How to monitor variation and
maintain process control.
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Agenda: Variation and
Quality
§ The normal distribution
§ Error stackup and simple fits
§ The lognormal distribution
§ Process sensitivity
§ Principles of measurement
§ Statistical process control
§ Conclusion
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Variation and Quality:
2. The Normal
Distribution
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Measured variation:
hex nuts
Mean = 5.58 mm
Stdev = 0.033
Frequency
Hex nut thickness [mm]
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Hex nut thickness:
observations
§ What do we learn from the
distribution of values?
§ Would the values be different
if we measure freehand
versus on the bolt?
Why/not?
§ What is the meaning of the
variation we measured?
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The normal distribution
Figure 36.3b, Kalpkjian and Schmid, Manufacturing Engineering and Technology
n → ∞
The histogram of x with n samples approaches the normal
distribution as
Denoted by
: mean (Ă  shift)
: standard deviation (Ă  flatness)
sometimes denoted s; e.g., 2s
= 2 standard deviations
2
2
( )
21
( )
2
x
x x
x
f x e σ
πσ
−
−
=
x
xσ
x ∈ N x,σx( )
σx
=
1
N
xi
− x( )
2
i=1
N
∑
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Normal probability density function (PDF)
f (x) =
1
2π s
⋅e
−
x−x( )
2
2s2
#
$
%
%
&
'
(
(
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)
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Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
( )
⎄
⎄
⎊
⎀
⎱
⎱
⎣
⎡ ⎟
⎟
⎠
⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝
⎛ −
− 2
2
2
2
1 s
xx
e
sπ
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)
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Probability: { }
{ } 1)(
)(
==∞≀≀∞−
=≀≀
∫
∫
∞
∞−
dxxfxP
dxxfbxaP
b
a
Normalized to “Z-scores”
{ } ∫
−
=≀≀
−
=
2
1
2
2
21
2
1
z
z
dz
z
ezzzP
s
xx
z
π
b
z
P
x
f(x)
a
0
f (x) =
1
2π s
⋅e
−
x−x( )
2
2s2
#
$
%
%
&
'
(
(
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Z-scores
z =
x − x
s
Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
-3 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0011 0.0010
-2.5 0.0062 0.0059 0.0055 0.0052 0.0049
-2 0.0228 0.0217 0.0207 0.0197 0.0188
-1.5 0.0668 0.0643 0.0618 0.0594 0.0571
-1 0.1587 0.1539 0.1492 0.1446 0.1401
-0.5 0.3085 0.3015 0.2946 0.2877 0.2810
0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319
0z
P
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Z-scores
z =
x − x
s
0z
P
Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08
0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319
0.5 0.6915 0.6985 0.7054 0.7123 0.7190
1 0.8413 0.8461 0.8508 0.8554 0.8599
1.5 0.9332 0.9357 0.9382 0.9406 0.9429
2 0.9772 0.9783 0.9793 0.9803 0.9812
2.5 0.9938 0.9941 0.9945 0.9948 0.9951
3 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9989 0.9990
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Z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359
0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753
0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141
0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879
0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224
0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549
0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852
0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133
0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389
1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621
1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830
1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015
1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177
1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319
1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441
1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545
1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633
1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706
1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767
2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817
2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857
2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890
2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916
2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952
2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974
2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981
2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986
3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
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Example: manipulating the normal
distribution
Car tires have a lifetime that can be
modeled using a normal distribution with a
mean of 80,000 km and a standard
deviation of 4,000 km.
Ă  What fraction of tires can be expected
to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the
average?
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Solution: how many wear out between 76,000
and 84,000 miles?
Ă  Area under the curve between these points
z(1) – z(-1) = 0.8413 – 0.1587 = 0.6826
= 68% will wear out
0.8413
0.1587
+1.00-1.00
0.6826
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Example: manipulating the normal
distribution
Car tires have a lifetime that can be
modeled using a normal distribution with a
mean of 80,000 km and a standard
deviation of 4,000 km.
Ă  What fraction of tires can be expected
to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the
average?
Ă  68% will wear out
Ă  What fraction of tires will wear out
between 70,000 km and 90,000 km?
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Solution: failures within 70,000-90,000 miles
Ă  % of tires that will wear out =
z(2.5) – z(-2.5) = 0.9938 – 0.0062 = .9876
Ă  98%
0.99380.0062
0 +2.5-2.5
0.9876
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Variation and Quality:
3. Error stackup and
simple fits
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Measured variation: hex nuts
Single hex nut
Stack of two hex nuts
Mean = 5.58 mm
Stdev = 0.033
Mean = 11.15 mm
Stdev = 0.049
Stack thickness [mm]
Hex nut thickness [mm]
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Modeling ‘stackup’: superposition of random
variables
Proof: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables
1 2y x x= ±
1 2y x x= ±
1 2
2 2
y x xσ σ σ= +
( )σ,1 xNx ∈ ( )σ,yNy∈
( )σ,2 xNx ∈
1 2 3 n
In general, if we define a new random variable
y = c1x1 + c2x2 + c3x3 + c4x4 + 

‱ ci are constants
‱ xi are independent random variables
It can be shown that: ”y = c1”1 + c2”2 + c3”3 + c4”4 + ...
σy
2 = c1
2σ1
2 + c2
2σ2
2 + c3
2σ3
2 + c4
2σ4
2
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What is the the probability of a successful
assembly?
c = D − d
The new critical dimension
is the clearance (c):
c = D − d
σc
= σD
2
+σd
2
The distribution of
clearances is defined by: DD t±
dd t±
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ANSI hole-shaft fit classification
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Variation and Quality:
4. The lognormal
distribution
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Lognormal distribution
Ă  The logarithm of x is distributed normally
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution (public domain)
Probability density function (PDF)
Example: size distribution of particles in a powder, size distribution of
grains within a metal
N(ln x;”,σ ) =
1
xσ 2π
e
−
(ln x−”)2
2σ 2
” = ln
m
1+ v / m2
!
"
##
$
%
&& σ = ln 1+ v / m2
( )
m, v = mean and variance of raw data
Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
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Lognormal distribution: metal powder for 3D printing
GE fuel nozzle: http://www.gereports.com/post/116402870270/the-faa-cleared-the-first-3d-printed-part-to-fly/
SEM image: http://advancedpowders.com/our-plasma-atomized-powders/products/ti-6al-4v-titanium-alloy-powder/#15-45_m
Ti6Al4V
Specification: 15-45 um
Selective Laser Melting (SLM)
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Variation and Quality:
5. Process sensitivity
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How hex nuts are made
Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR6q_nXH2IQ
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What can cause
process variation?
§ The process: inherent capability;
change of settings.
§ Material: raw material variation,
defects.
§ Equipment: tool wear, equipment
needs maintenance/calibration
§ Operator: procedure, fatigue,
distraction, etc.
§ Environment: temperature,
humidity, vibration, etc.
§ Measurement: Capability of
measurement tool; change of
performance (Ă  calibration needed)
§ 

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Climb milling (first cut) versus
conventional milling (second cut)
6061-T6 Aluminum with Œ”
endmill
Spindle Speed: 4000 rpm
Feed: 20.0 in/min
Depth of cut: 0.400”
Width of cut: 0.070”
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Example: climb versus conventional milling
Expected width of material .610”
Conventional cut width (red):
Top edge .609”, Bottom of cut .611”
Climb cut width (green):
Top edge .612”, Bottom of cut .619”
Conventional
§ Chip from thin à thick
§ Lower forces but rougher
surface
Climb
§ Chip from thick à thin
§ Higher forces but
smoother surface
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Heat
Force
Reference
frame
The ‘structural loop’
The machine, tool, and workpiece are flexible
Tool
Error
Work
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Injection molding
process window
Ă  We also must understand the
sensitivities to process variables within the
window.
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Injection molding: varying process parameters
Note the mean shifts compared to the variation
40.60
40.65
40.70
40.75
40.80
40.85
40.90
40.95
41.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
WidthofPart(mm)
Number of Run
Run Chart for Injection Molded Part
Width (mm)
Average
Holding Time = 5 sec
Injection Press = 40%
Holding Time = 10 sec
Injection Press = 40%
Holding Time = 5 sec
Injection Press = 60%
Holding Time = 10 sec
Injection Press = 60%
Part%radius%[mm]
Run%number
Hold = 5 sec
Pressure = 40% of max
Hold = 5 sec
P = 40% max
Hold = 10 sec
P = 40% max
Hold = 5 sec
P = 60% max
Hold = 5 sec
P = 40% max
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à Systematic (“special cause”)
variation: influences of process
parameters or external
disturbances that can be isolated
and possibly predicted or removed.
à Random (“common cause”)
variation: caused by uncontrollable
factors that result in a steady but
random distribution of output
around the average of the data. In
other words, this is the ‘noise’ of
the system.
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A general model of process variation
Process
Input (u) Output (Y)
Disturbances, such as:
§ Equipment performance changes
§ Material property changes
§ Temperature fluctuations
Control inputs (process
parameter settings)
Sensitivity
Disturbance (α)
ΔY =
∂Y
∂α
Δα +
∂Y
∂u
Δu
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Some example sensitivities
(if all other parameters are held constant)
Injection molding
§ Relationship between molecular weight of polymer
(determines viscosity) and accuracy (final part
dimension compared to mold)
§ Relationship between injection pressure and accuracy
Machining
§ Relationship between depth of cut and surface
roughness (= spatial frequency of tool marks)
§ Relationship between tool life (sharpness) and accuracy
(= workpiece deformation via higher force and
temperature rise)
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All together, this determines the amount of variation, and thus
a reasonable tolerance that can be specified!
When the process is ‘under control’:
If tolerances are too tight:
§ Extra cost (slower rate)
§ More process steps (e.g.
finishing)
§ Lots of scrap (rejects)
§ Manufacturer “no quote”
(unreasonable expectations)
ΔY =
∂Y
∂α
Δα +
∂Y
∂u
Δu
Figure 13.30 from Ashby, Material Selection in Mechanical Design
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Variation and Quality:
6. Principles of
measurement
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Ă  Where must the
Resolution be on
this chart?
True (exact) value
Repeatability
Accuracy
Probabilitydensity
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Accuracy = “the ability to tell the truth”
Ă  Difference between the measured and true value
Repeatability = “the ability to tell the same story many times”
Ă  Difference between consecutive measurements intended to be
identical
Resolution = “the ability to tell the difference”
Ă  Minimum increment that can be measured
A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design
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A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design
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Mitutoyo high performance micrometer
§ A highly rigid frame and high-performance constant-force
(7-9 N) mechanism enable more stable measurement*
*Patent pending in Japan, the United States of America, the European Union, and
China.
§ Body heat transferred to the instrument is reduced by a
(removable) heat shield, minimizing the error caused by
thermal expansion of the frame when performing
handheld measurements.
http://ecatalog.mitutoyo.com/MDH-Micrometer-High-Accuracy-Sub-Micron-Digimatic-Micrometer-C1816.aspx
Range = 0-25 mm
Resolution = 0.0001 mm (0.1 micron)
Accuracy = 0.0005 mm (0.1 micron)
Flatness: 0.3 micron (across ‘jaws’)
Parallelism: 0.6 micron
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Machine vision (Keyence)
Photos taken at IMTS 2014
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Robot-mounted 3D scanner (Creaform)
“70 micron accuracy over the “size of a pickup truck” à correcting for low
robot accuracy by imaging dots on the sphere
At IMTS 2014
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At IMTS 2014
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At IMTS 2014
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Variation and Quality:
7. Statistical Process
Control
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Monitoring a process: CONTROL CHARTS
invented by Walter A. Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1920’s)
§ Needed to improve reliability of telephone transmission systems
§ Stressed the need to eliminate all but “common cause” variation, and
minimize this variation
à “a process under surveillance by periodic sampling maintains a constant
level of variability over time”
0.990
0.995
1.000
1.005
1.010
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Run number
Average(of10samples)Diameter
Upper control limit
Lower control limit
Step disturbance
66.3%
95.5%
99.7%
2.008x
OPERATION CHARACTERISTIC DATES
MACHINE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE FREQUENCY REMARKS
ACTION
INSTRUCTIONS
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
NOTES:
X
AVERAGESORINDIVIDUALS
R
RANGES/STD.DEV.
DATE OR TIME
INDIVIDUAL
READINGS
1
2
3
4
5
SUM
X
R
S
BASE PREDEPOSITION SHEET RESISTANCE 2/80 - 2/24, 1988
FCE #5 4 EVERY 5th LOT NOTE UNUSUAL OCCURANCES
40
35
30
25
20
15
15
10
5
2/8 2/8 2/9 2/9 2/10 2/10 2/11 2/11 2/11 2/12 2/12 2/15 2/16 2/16 2/17 2/17 2/18 2/18 2/19 2/22 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/242/9
32 28 31 32 34 33 30 33 35 39 37 33 34 29 32 30 34 33 29 30 29 28 30 2929
27 25 29 26 32 26 27 29 31 32 31 27 26 25 27 25 27 28 27 28 20 26 23 3122
27 29 27 25 29 25 25 31 26 30 35 28 30 22 24 22 25 26 27 26 22 25 25 2622
34 30 25 30 28 33 23 27 27 34 30 25 31 25 26 20 28 25 27 25 25 24 26 2527
120 112 112 113 123 117 105 120 119 135 133 113 121 101 109 97 114 112 110 109 96 103 104 111100
30 28 28 28.3 30.8 29.3 26.3 30 29.8 33.8 33.3 28.3 30.3 25.3 27.3 24.3 28.5 28 27.5 27.3 24 25.8 26 27.825
7 5 6 7 6 8 7 6 9 9 7 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 2 5 9 7 7 65
LOW ON SOURCE -
MORE ADDED*
UCL
X
= 33.16
LCL
X
= 23.08
X
UCL
R
= 15.97
R
* *
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What might be going on here?
à “a process under surveillance by periodic
sampling maintains a constant level of
variability over time”
UCL
CL
LCL
0 10 20 30 40 50
57
60
63UCL
CL
LCL
0 10 20 30 40 50
5.0
5.6
6.2
? ?
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Basic types of control charts
Average chart: plot of mean values
of each sample , centered around
the grand average (mean of all
samples)
Range chart: plot of range of each
sample (max - min), centered
around the average range.
Ă  Why do we need both charts?
Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian,
Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Control	charts	are	constructed	from	measurements	of	samples	(each	with	n	parts)	
from	the	population	(N,	all	parts	manufactured).
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Reveals shift
Process mean is
shifting upward
Does not reveal
shift
When the mean shifts:
Sampling
Distribution
x-Chart
R-chart
UCL
LCL
UCL
LCL
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Does not reveal
increase
Process variability
is increasing
Reveals increase
When the mean shifts:
Sampling
Distribution
x-Chart
R-chart
UCL
LCL
UCL
LCL
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How do we choose the sample size (n) and frequency
of sampling?
§ Likelihood of unexpected disturbances
§ Importance (cost) of defects
§ Cost of measurement
Ă Typically based on experience and knowledge of the above
(sometimes trial and error)
How do we define the control limits (LCL, UCL)?
§ Based on pre-tabulated statistics of sample variation versus
sample size
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Calculating the control limits
Average chart
Grand average:
Control limits:
Range chart
Average range:
Control limits:
Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian,
Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
LCL = X − A2
R
UCL = X + A2
R
LCL = D3
R
UCL = D4
R
R =
Ri
i=1
N
∑
N
X =
X i
i=1
N
∑
N
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Factors for calculating control limits
Ă  These constants are for a 3-sigma approach, i.e., control limits are
placed at +/- 3 standard deviations from the estimated process mean
Table 36.2 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by
Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Average	chart
Grand	average:
Control	limits:
Range	chart
Average	range:
Control	limits:
LCL = X − A2
R
UCL = X + A2
R
LCL = D3
R
UCL = D4
R
R =
Ri
i=1
N
∑
N
X =
X i
i=1
N
∑
N
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Process control vs. capability
Ă  Even if a process is in control (i.e., constant mean and variation), it
may not be capable (i.e., giving what we want as set by the
specifications a.k.a. the tolerances)
Upper control limit
(UCL)
Lower control limit
(LCL)
In Control and Capable
(Variation from common cause reduced)
In Control but not Capable
(Variation from common causes excessive)
Lower specification
limit(LSL) Upper specification
limit(USL)
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Control limits vs. tolerances (specification
limits)
Control limits are:
§ Based on process mean and variability.
§ Dependent on the sampling parameters.
Ă  Thus, control limits are a characteristic of the process
and measurement method.
Tolerances (specification limits) are:
§ Based on functional considerations.
§ Used to establish a part’s conformability to the design
intent.
Ă  Thus, we must have a formal method of comparison.
2.008x
Process capability: compares process
variation to tolerances
use	whichever	is	smaller,	
because	Ă 
Cp
=
USL− LSL
6σx
Cpk
=
USL−”x
3σx
Cpk
=
”x
− LSL
3σx
or
General	rule:	Cp should	be	at	least	1.33	
LSL,	USL	=	tolerance	limits
σx =	process	stdev
LSL USL
LSL USL
9.80 10.00 10.05 10.20 (mm)
Design
Intent
True process
2.008x
0.990
0.995
1.000
1.005
1.010
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Run number
Average(of10samples)Diameter
Example: calculating Cp, Cpk
Assume:
”x =	1.000”
σx =	0.001”
Specification	=	0.999”	+/- 0.005”
Upper control limit
Lower control limit
Step disturbance
66.3%
95.5%
99.7%
2.008x
2.008x
Recommended values of process capability
à How do we really judge what’s good enough?
Knowledge of the ‘cost’ of defects in our product, thereby
defining a ‘quality loss function’ (beyond scope today).
Recommended	process
capability	for	two-sided	
specifications
Defects	(parts	out	of
spec) per	million
operations
Existing	(stable)	process 1.33 63
New	process 1.50 8
Existing process,	safety-
critical
1.50 8
New	process, safety-critical 1.67 1
Six-sigma quality 2.00 0.002
2.008x
Variation and Quality:
8. Conclusion
2.008x
The big picture
‘Pilot’ production
This is a control chart
Design for
Manufacturing (DFM)
$$
Does not
conform
Conforms
(good!)
Change design?
Modify process
(know what to do)
2.008x
Embracing the variation: Apple
Excerpt from: https://youtu.be/7cIRpmgYBJw?t=274
2.008x
Embracing the variation: Intel
§ The speed of each processor made is
measured, and this sets the specification
and price
§ As production improves, faster processors
are released for sale
Image © Intel Corporation 2016 http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/embedded/products/bay-trail/atom-processor-e3800-platform-brief.html
http://ark.intel.com/compare/78416,80270,80269,80268
Product Name
Intel¼ Atomℱ
Processor Z3740D
(2M Cache, up to
1.83 GHz)
Intel¼ Atomℱ
Processor Z3745
(2M Cache, up to
1.86 GHz)
Intel¼ Atomℱ
Processor Z3775D
(2M Cache, up to
2.41 GHz)
Intel¼ Atomℱ
Processor Z3775
(2M Cache, up to
2.39 GHz)
Performance
# of Cores 4 4 4 4
# of Threads 4 4 4 4
Processor Base
Frequency
1.33 GHz 1.33 GHz 1.49 GHz 1.46 GHz
Burst Frequency 1.83 GHz 1.86 GHz 2.41 GHz 2.39 GHz
Scenario Design
Power (SDP)
2.2 W 2 W 2.2 W 2 W
2.008x
Reflection: learning objectives
§ Recognize how process tolerances are defined and
variation is monitored, and how a manufacturing process
is established to control variation.
§ Be fluent with manipulation of normally distributed
dimensions, combinations of dimensions (e.g., to predict
fits, lifetimes, etc.).
§ Understand how process physics influence statistical
outcomes (e.g., mean, variation). What are the sensitive
parameters, and how can the variation be addressed?
§ Understand accuracy, repeatability, resolution; assess
the suitability of a measurement technique to monitor a
process.
§ Know how to construct and interpret control charts and
evaluate process capability.
2.008x
References
1 Introduction
iPhone with a cracked screen, photo by User: Philipp Zurawski (Freetagger) - Pixabay
CC0. This work is in the public domain.
Lexus Commercial Video by Anthony Slanda on YouTube. © Lexus, a Division of Toyota
Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc
LEGO brick assembly, photo by User: M W (Efraimstochter) - Pixabay CC0. This work is
in the public domain.
Gillette razor blade section, Figure 1 from "Razor blade technology US6684513 B1" by
Clipstone, et al. (2004). This work is in the public domain.
Car body inspection using a Nikon coordinate measurement machine, video © 2016
Nikon Metrology, Inc.
Dimensional Variation Reduction for Automotive Body Assembly: Figure 4 by Ceglarek
and Shi; Manufacturing Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society
of Mechanical Engineers.
Hierarchical groups for fault tracking: Figure 5 by Ceglarek and Shi; Manufacturing
Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society of Mechanical
Engineers.
2.008x
References
2 Normal Distribution
Normal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th
Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Normal probability distribution function, image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This
work is in the public domain.
Cumulative distribution function, Image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This work is
in the public domain.
Automobile tire, photo by User: Robert Balog (Bergadder) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in
the public domain.
3 Variation Stackup
ANSI hole-shaft fit classification, image © International Organization for Standardization
(ISO)
2.008x
References
4 Lognormal Distribution
Log-normal probability distribution function, image by User: Krishnavedala via wikipedia -
CC0. This work is in the public domain.
General Electric aircraft engine fuel nozzle, image © 2016 General Electric
Particle size distribution for Ti-6Al-4V powder stock of various size ranges from Advanced
Powders and Coatings (APC), figure 5 from Title: Raymor AP&C: Leading the way with
plasma atomised Ti spherical powders for MIM; Journal: Powder Injection Moulding
International; Vol: 5; No: 4; December 2011; pages: 55-57. © Inovar Communications Ltd
5 Sensitivity
Hex nut production: "How It's Made" Video on YouTube Copyright © 2016 Discovery
Conventional vs. climb milling: Figure 24.3 in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology
(7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
2.008x
References
Normal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th
Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Process tolerance charts: Figure 36.3b in "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th
Edition)" by Ashby, Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Measurement
Accuracy, resolution and repeatability: Figure 2.1.1 in "Precision Machine Design" by
Alexander H. Slocum; Publisher: Prentice Hall; Year: 1992; ISBN: 0136909183. (c)
Prentice Hall 1992.
ESPN Monday Night Football, ESPN broadcast footage (c) Disney Corporation.
Digital micrometer, image Copyright © 2016 Mitutoyo America Corporation. All rights
reserved.
2.008x
References
7 SPC
Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from
"Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper
Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from
"Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper
Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
Control limit equation constants as a function of sample size: Table 36.2
from"Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c)
Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
8 Conclusion
iPhone 5 optical part matching for optimal fit, image (c) Apple Inc.
Intel Atom processor, image © Intel Corporation

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Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

  • 1. 2.008x Variation and Quality MIT 2.008x Prof. John Hart Prof. Sanjay Sarma
  • 3. 2.008x Quality: the relentless pursuit of perfection Lexus, 1992: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AktHnnA9QIM
  • 5. 2.008x Quality: Conformity to requirements or specifications. In other words, the ability of a product or service to consistently meet customer needs. Variation: A change in outcome of a process. Tolerance: Permissible limit of variation of a process.
  • 6. 2.008x What are the measures of Lego quality? Drawing from Clipstone, C. J., Hahn, S., Sonnenberg, N., White, C., and Zhuk, A., 2004, “Razor blade technology.” Blade edge: https://scienceofsharp.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/astra_stainless_x_05.jpg and for Gillette razors?
  • 7. 2.008x Car body measurement using a CMM (Nikon) Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5zXdSv60Ag
  • 8. 2.008x Car body build variation: production launch Figure 4 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction forAutomotive Body Assembly." Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154. 2 mm body project: http://www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr-709.htm 6 standard deviations from the mean: 3.4 defects per million!
  • 9. 2.008x Car body assembly hierarchy Figure 5 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction forAutomotive Body Assembly." Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154.
  • 10. 2.008x What do we need to know? § What the customer wants (i.e. what is ‘good quality’) and how to relate this to our specifications. § How to quantify variation (statistically). § What causes process variation, and how to minimize variation as needed. § How to monitor variation and maintain process control.
  • 11. 2.008x Agenda: Variation and Quality § The normal distribution § Error stackup and simple fits § The lognormal distribution § Process sensitivity § Principles of measurement § Statistical process control § Conclusion
  • 12. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 2. The Normal Distribution
  • 13. 2.008x Measured variation: hex nuts Mean = 5.58 mm Stdev = 0.033 Frequency Hex nut thickness [mm]
  • 14. 2.008x Hex nut thickness: observations § What do we learn from the distribution of values? § Would the values be different if we measure freehand versus on the bolt? Why/not? § What is the meaning of the variation we measured?
  • 15. 2.008x The normal distribution Figure 36.3b, Kalpkjian and Schmid, Manufacturing Engineering and Technology n → ∞ The histogram of x with n samples approaches the normal distribution as Denoted by : mean (Ă  shift) : standard deviation (Ă  flatness) sometimes denoted s; e.g., 2s = 2 standard deviations 2 2 ( ) 21 ( ) 2 x x x x f x e σ πσ − − = x xσ x ∈ N x,σx( ) σx = 1 N xi − x( ) 2 i=1 N ∑
  • 16. 2.008x Normal probability density function (PDF) f (x) = 1 2π s ⋅e − x−x( ) 2 2s2 # $ % % & ' ( ( From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)
  • 17. 2.008x Cumulative distribution function (CDF) ( ) ⎄ ⎄ ⎊ ⎀ ⎱ ⎱ ⎣ ⎡ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ − − 2 2 2 2 1 s xx e sπ From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)
  • 18. 2.008x Probability: { } { } 1)( )( ==∞≀≀∞− =≀≀ ∫ ∫ ∞ ∞− dxxfxP dxxfbxaP b a Normalized to “Z-scores” { } ∫ − =≀≀ − = 2 1 2 2 21 2 1 z z dz z ezzzP s xx z π b z P x f(x) a 0 f (x) = 1 2π s ⋅e − x−x( ) 2 2s2 # $ % % & ' ( (
  • 19. 2.008x Z-scores z = x − x s Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 -3 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0011 0.0010 -2.5 0.0062 0.0059 0.0055 0.0052 0.0049 -2 0.0228 0.0217 0.0207 0.0197 0.0188 -1.5 0.0668 0.0643 0.0618 0.0594 0.0571 -1 0.1587 0.1539 0.1492 0.1446 0.1401 -0.5 0.3085 0.3015 0.2946 0.2877 0.2810 0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319 0z P
  • 20. 2.008x Z-scores z = x − x s 0z P Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319 0.5 0.6915 0.6985 0.7054 0.7123 0.7190 1 0.8413 0.8461 0.8508 0.8554 0.8599 1.5 0.9332 0.9357 0.9382 0.9406 0.9429 2 0.9772 0.9783 0.9793 0.9803 0.9812 2.5 0.9938 0.9941 0.9945 0.9948 0.9951 3 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9989 0.9990
  • 21. 2.008x Z 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.5359 0.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.5753 0.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.6141 0.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517 0.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.6879 0.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.7224 0.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.7549 0.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.7852 0.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.8133 0.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.8389 1.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.8621 1.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.8830 1.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.9015 1.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.9177 1.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.9319 1.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.9441 1.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9545 1.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.9633 1.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.9706 1.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.9767 2.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.9817 2.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.9857 2.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.9890 2.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.9916 2.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936 2.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.9952 2.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964 2.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.9974 2.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.9981 2.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.9986 3.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990
  • 22. 2.008x Example: manipulating the normal distribution Car tires have a lifetime that can be modeled using a normal distribution with a mean of 80,000 km and a standard deviation of 4,000 km. Ă  What fraction of tires can be expected to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the average?
  • 23. 2.008x Solution: how many wear out between 76,000 and 84,000 miles? Ă  Area under the curve between these points z(1) – z(-1) = 0.8413 – 0.1587 = 0.6826 = 68% will wear out 0.8413 0.1587 +1.00-1.00 0.6826
  • 24. 2.008x Example: manipulating the normal distribution Car tires have a lifetime that can be modeled using a normal distribution with a mean of 80,000 km and a standard deviation of 4,000 km. Ă  What fraction of tires can be expected to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the average? Ă  68% will wear out Ă  What fraction of tires will wear out between 70,000 km and 90,000 km?
  • 25. 2.008x Solution: failures within 70,000-90,000 miles Ă  % of tires that will wear out = z(2.5) – z(-2.5) = 0.9938 – 0.0062 = .9876 Ă  98% 0.99380.0062 0 +2.5-2.5 0.9876
  • 26. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 3. Error stackup and simple fits
  • 27. 2.008x Measured variation: hex nuts Single hex nut Stack of two hex nuts Mean = 5.58 mm Stdev = 0.033 Mean = 11.15 mm Stdev = 0.049 Stack thickness [mm] Hex nut thickness [mm]
  • 28. 2.008x Modeling ‘stackup’: superposition of random variables Proof: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables 1 2y x x= ± 1 2y x x= ± 1 2 2 2 y x xσ σ σ= + ( )σ,1 xNx ∈ ( )σ,yNy∈ ( )σ,2 xNx ∈ 1 2 3 n In general, if we define a new random variable y = c1x1 + c2x2 + c3x3 + c4x4 + 
 ‱ ci are constants ‱ xi are independent random variables It can be shown that: ”y = c1”1 + c2”2 + c3”3 + c4”4 + ... σy 2 = c1 2σ1 2 + c2 2σ2 2 + c3 2σ3 2 + c4 2σ4 2
  • 29. 2.008x What is the the probability of a successful assembly? c = D − d The new critical dimension is the clearance (c): c = D − d σc = σD 2 +σd 2 The distribution of clearances is defined by: DD t± dd t±
  • 30. 2.008x ANSI hole-shaft fit classification
  • 31. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 4. The lognormal distribution
  • 32. 2.008x Lognormal distribution Ă  The logarithm of x is distributed normally From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution (public domain) Probability density function (PDF) Example: size distribution of particles in a powder, size distribution of grains within a metal N(ln x;”,σ ) = 1 xσ 2π e − (ln x−”)2 2σ 2 ” = ln m 1+ v / m2 ! " ## $ % && σ = ln 1+ v / m2 ( ) m, v = mean and variance of raw data Cumulative distribution function (CDF)
  • 33. 2.008x Lognormal distribution: metal powder for 3D printing GE fuel nozzle: http://www.gereports.com/post/116402870270/the-faa-cleared-the-first-3d-printed-part-to-fly/ SEM image: http://advancedpowders.com/our-plasma-atomized-powders/products/ti-6al-4v-titanium-alloy-powder/#15-45_m Ti6Al4V Specification: 15-45 um Selective Laser Melting (SLM)
  • 34. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 5. Process sensitivity
  • 35. 2.008x How hex nuts are made Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR6q_nXH2IQ
  • 36. 2.008x What can cause process variation? § The process: inherent capability; change of settings. § Material: raw material variation, defects. § Equipment: tool wear, equipment needs maintenance/calibration § Operator: procedure, fatigue, distraction, etc. § Environment: temperature, humidity, vibration, etc. § Measurement: Capability of measurement tool; change of performance (Ă  calibration needed) § 

  • 37. 2.008x Climb milling (first cut) versus conventional milling (second cut) 6061-T6 Aluminum with Œ” endmill Spindle Speed: 4000 rpm Feed: 20.0 in/min Depth of cut: 0.400” Width of cut: 0.070”
  • 38. 2.008x Example: climb versus conventional milling Expected width of material .610” Conventional cut width (red): Top edge .609”, Bottom of cut .611” Climb cut width (green): Top edge .612”, Bottom of cut .619” Conventional § Chip from thin Ă  thick § Lower forces but rougher surface Climb § Chip from thick Ă  thin § Higher forces but smoother surface
  • 39. 2.008x Heat Force Reference frame The ‘structural loop’ The machine, tool, and workpiece are flexible Tool Error Work
  • 40. 2.008x Injection molding process window Ă  We also must understand the sensitivities to process variables within the window.
  • 41. 2.008x Injection molding: varying process parameters Note the mean shifts compared to the variation 40.60 40.65 40.70 40.75 40.80 40.85 40.90 40.95 41.00 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 WidthofPart(mm) Number of Run Run Chart for Injection Molded Part Width (mm) Average Holding Time = 5 sec Injection Press = 40% Holding Time = 10 sec Injection Press = 40% Holding Time = 5 sec Injection Press = 60% Holding Time = 10 sec Injection Press = 60% Part%radius%[mm] Run%number Hold = 5 sec Pressure = 40% of max Hold = 5 sec P = 40% max Hold = 10 sec P = 40% max Hold = 5 sec P = 60% max Hold = 5 sec P = 40% max
  • 42. 2.008x Ă  Systematic (“special cause”) variation: influences of process parameters or external disturbances that can be isolated and possibly predicted or removed. Ă  Random (“common cause”) variation: caused by uncontrollable factors that result in a steady but random distribution of output around the average of the data. In other words, this is the ‘noise’ of the system.
  • 43. 2.008x A general model of process variation Process Input (u) Output (Y) Disturbances, such as: § Equipment performance changes § Material property changes § Temperature fluctuations Control inputs (process parameter settings) Sensitivity Disturbance (α) ΔY = ∂Y ∂α Δα + ∂Y ∂u Δu
  • 44. 2.008x Some example sensitivities (if all other parameters are held constant) Injection molding § Relationship between molecular weight of polymer (determines viscosity) and accuracy (final part dimension compared to mold) § Relationship between injection pressure and accuracy Machining § Relationship between depth of cut and surface roughness (= spatial frequency of tool marks) § Relationship between tool life (sharpness) and accuracy (= workpiece deformation via higher force and temperature rise)
  • 45. 2.008x All together, this determines the amount of variation, and thus a reasonable tolerance that can be specified! When the process is ‘under control’: If tolerances are too tight: § Extra cost (slower rate) § More process steps (e.g. finishing) § Lots of scrap (rejects) § Manufacturer “no quote” (unreasonable expectations) ΔY = ∂Y ∂α Δα + ∂Y ∂u Δu Figure 13.30 from Ashby, Material Selection in Mechanical Design
  • 46. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 6. Principles of measurement
  • 47. 2.008x Ă  Where must the Resolution be on this chart? True (exact) value Repeatability Accuracy Probabilitydensity
  • 48. 2.008x Accuracy = “the ability to tell the truth” Ă  Difference between the measured and true value Repeatability = “the ability to tell the same story many times” Ă  Difference between consecutive measurements intended to be identical Resolution = “the ability to tell the difference” Ă  Minimum increment that can be measured A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design
  • 49. 2.008x A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design
  • 50. 2.008x Mitutoyo high performance micrometer § A highly rigid frame and high-performance constant-force (7-9 N) mechanism enable more stable measurement* *Patent pending in Japan, the United States of America, the European Union, and China. § Body heat transferred to the instrument is reduced by a (removable) heat shield, minimizing the error caused by thermal expansion of the frame when performing handheld measurements. http://ecatalog.mitutoyo.com/MDH-Micrometer-High-Accuracy-Sub-Micron-Digimatic-Micrometer-C1816.aspx Range = 0-25 mm Resolution = 0.0001 mm (0.1 micron) Accuracy = 0.0005 mm (0.1 micron) Flatness: 0.3 micron (across ‘jaws’) Parallelism: 0.6 micron
  • 52. 2.008x Robot-mounted 3D scanner (Creaform) “70 micron accuracy over the “size of a pickup truck” Ă  correcting for low robot accuracy by imaging dots on the sphere At IMTS 2014
  • 55. 2.008x Variation and Quality: 7. Statistical Process Control
  • 56. 2.008x Monitoring a process: CONTROL CHARTS invented by Walter A. Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1920’s) § Needed to improve reliability of telephone transmission systems § Stressed the need to eliminate all but “common cause” variation, and minimize this variation Ă  “a process under surveillance by periodic sampling maintains a constant level of variability over time” 0.990 0.995 1.000 1.005 1.010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Run number Average(of10samples)Diameter Upper control limit Lower control limit Step disturbance 66.3% 95.5% 99.7%
  • 57. 2.008x OPERATION CHARACTERISTIC DATES MACHINE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE FREQUENCY REMARKS ACTION INSTRUCTIONS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. NOTES: X AVERAGESORINDIVIDUALS R RANGES/STD.DEV. DATE OR TIME INDIVIDUAL READINGS 1 2 3 4 5 SUM X R S BASE PREDEPOSITION SHEET RESISTANCE 2/80 - 2/24, 1988 FCE #5 4 EVERY 5th LOT NOTE UNUSUAL OCCURANCES 40 35 30 25 20 15 15 10 5 2/8 2/8 2/9 2/9 2/10 2/10 2/11 2/11 2/11 2/12 2/12 2/15 2/16 2/16 2/17 2/17 2/18 2/18 2/19 2/22 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/242/9 32 28 31 32 34 33 30 33 35 39 37 33 34 29 32 30 34 33 29 30 29 28 30 2929 27 25 29 26 32 26 27 29 31 32 31 27 26 25 27 25 27 28 27 28 20 26 23 3122 27 29 27 25 29 25 25 31 26 30 35 28 30 22 24 22 25 26 27 26 22 25 25 2622 34 30 25 30 28 33 23 27 27 34 30 25 31 25 26 20 28 25 27 25 25 24 26 2527 120 112 112 113 123 117 105 120 119 135 133 113 121 101 109 97 114 112 110 109 96 103 104 111100 30 28 28 28.3 30.8 29.3 26.3 30 29.8 33.8 33.3 28.3 30.3 25.3 27.3 24.3 28.5 28 27.5 27.3 24 25.8 26 27.825 7 5 6 7 6 8 7 6 9 9 7 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 2 5 9 7 7 65 LOW ON SOURCE - MORE ADDED* UCL X = 33.16 LCL X = 23.08 X UCL R = 15.97 R * *
  • 58. 2.008x What might be going on here? Ă  “a process under surveillance by periodic sampling maintains a constant level of variability over time” UCL CL LCL 0 10 20 30 40 50 57 60 63UCL CL LCL 0 10 20 30 40 50 5.0 5.6 6.2 ? ?
  • 59. 2.008x Basic types of control charts Average chart: plot of mean values of each sample , centered around the grand average (mean of all samples) Range chart: plot of range of each sample (max - min), centered around the average range. Ă  Why do we need both charts? Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Control charts are constructed from measurements of samples (each with n parts) from the population (N, all parts manufactured).
  • 60. 2.008x Reveals shift Process mean is shifting upward Does not reveal shift When the mean shifts: Sampling Distribution x-Chart R-chart UCL LCL UCL LCL
  • 61. 2.008x Does not reveal increase Process variability is increasing Reveals increase When the mean shifts: Sampling Distribution x-Chart R-chart UCL LCL UCL LCL
  • 62. 2.008x How do we choose the sample size (n) and frequency of sampling? § Likelihood of unexpected disturbances § Importance (cost) of defects § Cost of measurement Ă Typically based on experience and knowledge of the above (sometimes trial and error) How do we define the control limits (LCL, UCL)? § Based on pre-tabulated statistics of sample variation versus sample size
  • 63. 2.008x Calculating the control limits Average chart Grand average: Control limits: Range chart Average range: Control limits: Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). LCL = X − A2 R UCL = X + A2 R LCL = D3 R UCL = D4 R R = Ri i=1 N ∑ N X = X i i=1 N ∑ N
  • 64. 2.008x Factors for calculating control limits Ă  These constants are for a 3-sigma approach, i.e., control limits are placed at +/- 3 standard deviations from the estimated process mean Table 36.2 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Average chart Grand average: Control limits: Range chart Average range: Control limits: LCL = X − A2 R UCL = X + A2 R LCL = D3 R UCL = D4 R R = Ri i=1 N ∑ N X = X i i=1 N ∑ N
  • 65. 2.008x Process control vs. capability Ă  Even if a process is in control (i.e., constant mean and variation), it may not be capable (i.e., giving what we want as set by the specifications a.k.a. the tolerances) Upper control limit (UCL) Lower control limit (LCL) In Control and Capable (Variation from common cause reduced) In Control but not Capable (Variation from common causes excessive) Lower specification limit(LSL) Upper specification limit(USL)
  • 66. 2.008x Control limits vs. tolerances (specification limits) Control limits are: § Based on process mean and variability. § Dependent on the sampling parameters. Ă  Thus, control limits are a characteristic of the process and measurement method. Tolerances (specification limits) are: § Based on functional considerations. § Used to establish a part’s conformability to the design intent. Ă  Thus, we must have a formal method of comparison.
  • 67. 2.008x Process capability: compares process variation to tolerances use whichever is smaller, because Ă  Cp = USL− LSL 6σx Cpk = USL−”x 3σx Cpk = ”x − LSL 3σx or General rule: Cp should be at least 1.33 LSL, USL = tolerance limits σx = process stdev LSL USL LSL USL 9.80 10.00 10.05 10.20 (mm) Design Intent True process
  • 68. 2.008x 0.990 0.995 1.000 1.005 1.010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Run number Average(of10samples)Diameter Example: calculating Cp, Cpk Assume: ”x = 1.000” σx = 0.001” Specification = 0.999” +/- 0.005” Upper control limit Lower control limit Step disturbance 66.3% 95.5% 99.7%
  • 70. 2.008x Recommended values of process capability Ă  How do we really judge what’s good enough? Knowledge of the ‘cost’ of defects in our product, thereby defining a ‘quality loss function’ (beyond scope today). Recommended process capability for two-sided specifications Defects (parts out of spec) per million operations Existing (stable) process 1.33 63 New process 1.50 8 Existing process, safety- critical 1.50 8 New process, safety-critical 1.67 1 Six-sigma quality 2.00 0.002
  • 72. 2.008x The big picture ‘Pilot’ production This is a control chart Design for Manufacturing (DFM) $$ Does not conform Conforms (good!) Change design? Modify process (know what to do)
  • 73. 2.008x Embracing the variation: Apple Excerpt from: https://youtu.be/7cIRpmgYBJw?t=274
  • 74. 2.008x Embracing the variation: Intel § The speed of each processor made is measured, and this sets the specification and price § As production improves, faster processors are released for sale Image © Intel Corporation 2016 http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/embedded/products/bay-trail/atom-processor-e3800-platform-brief.html http://ark.intel.com/compare/78416,80270,80269,80268 Product Name IntelÂź Atomℱ Processor Z3740D (2M Cache, up to 1.83 GHz) IntelÂź Atomℱ Processor Z3745 (2M Cache, up to 1.86 GHz) IntelÂź Atomℱ Processor Z3775D (2M Cache, up to 2.41 GHz) IntelÂź Atomℱ Processor Z3775 (2M Cache, up to 2.39 GHz) Performance # of Cores 4 4 4 4 # of Threads 4 4 4 4 Processor Base Frequency 1.33 GHz 1.33 GHz 1.49 GHz 1.46 GHz Burst Frequency 1.83 GHz 1.86 GHz 2.41 GHz 2.39 GHz Scenario Design Power (SDP) 2.2 W 2 W 2.2 W 2 W
  • 75. 2.008x Reflection: learning objectives § Recognize how process tolerances are defined and variation is monitored, and how a manufacturing process is established to control variation. § Be fluent with manipulation of normally distributed dimensions, combinations of dimensions (e.g., to predict fits, lifetimes, etc.). § Understand how process physics influence statistical outcomes (e.g., mean, variation). What are the sensitive parameters, and how can the variation be addressed? § Understand accuracy, repeatability, resolution; assess the suitability of a measurement technique to monitor a process. § Know how to construct and interpret control charts and evaluate process capability.
  • 76. 2.008x References 1 Introduction iPhone with a cracked screen, photo by User: Philipp Zurawski (Freetagger) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in the public domain. Lexus Commercial Video by Anthony Slanda on YouTube. © Lexus, a Division of Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc LEGO brick assembly, photo by User: M W (Efraimstochter) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in the public domain. Gillette razor blade section, Figure 1 from "Razor blade technology US6684513 B1" by Clipstone, et al. (2004). This work is in the public domain. Car body inspection using a Nikon coordinate measurement machine, video © 2016 Nikon Metrology, Inc. Dimensional Variation Reduction for Automotive Body Assembly: Figure 4 by Ceglarek and Shi; Manufacturing Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society of Mechanical Engineers. Hierarchical groups for fault tracking: Figure 5 by Ceglarek and Shi; Manufacturing Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
  • 77. 2.008x References 2 Normal Distribution Normal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Normal probability distribution function, image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This work is in the public domain. Cumulative distribution function, Image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This work is in the public domain. Automobile tire, photo by User: Robert Balog (Bergadder) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in the public domain. 3 Variation Stackup ANSI hole-shaft fit classification, image © International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
  • 78. 2.008x References 4 Lognormal Distribution Log-normal probability distribution function, image by User: Krishnavedala via wikipedia - CC0. This work is in the public domain. General Electric aircraft engine fuel nozzle, image © 2016 General Electric Particle size distribution for Ti-6Al-4V powder stock of various size ranges from Advanced Powders and Coatings (APC), figure 5 from Title: Raymor AP&C: Leading the way with plasma atomised Ti spherical powders for MIM; Journal: Powder Injection Moulding International; Vol: 5; No: 4; December 2011; pages: 55-57. © Inovar Communications Ltd 5 Sensitivity Hex nut production: "How It's Made" Video on YouTube Copyright © 2016 Discovery Conventional vs. climb milling: Figure 24.3 in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).
  • 79. 2.008x References Normal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Process tolerance charts: Figure 36.3b in "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th Edition)" by Ashby, Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 6 Measurement Accuracy, resolution and repeatability: Figure 2.1.1 in "Precision Machine Design" by Alexander H. Slocum; Publisher: Prentice Hall; Year: 1992; ISBN: 0136909183. (c) Prentice Hall 1992. ESPN Monday Night Football, ESPN broadcast footage (c) Disney Corporation. Digital micrometer, image Copyright © 2016 Mitutoyo America Corporation. All rights reserved.
  • 80. 2.008x References 7 SPC Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). Control limit equation constants as a function of sample size: Table 36.2 from"Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014). 8 Conclusion iPhone 5 optical part matching for optimal fit, image (c) Apple Inc. Intel Atom processor, image © Intel Corporation