Details of our 2012-13 project bridging technology foresight and skills anticipation methodology to understand future competence needs of Russian economy

1. Future competence demand
anticipation in growing industries:
Competence Foresight 2030
Dr. Pavel Luksha
SKOLKOVO Education
Development Center

2. Moscow School of Management
SKOLKOVO
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Competence Foresight
2030
UAC
Transport Universities
Tools for focused
competence demand
anticipation & TVET
policy revision in a
specific growing
industries (aircraft
production and
transportation &
logistics industry)
Tools for competence
demand anticipation
through technological
foresight lenses for new
& growing industries
ILO project
with SKOLKOVO
Developing & piloting
tools for competence
demand technological
foresight

3. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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1. Mismatch in labor market:
• in formal sector, only 43% find jobs in accordance with their qualification
• in informal sector, only 24% find jobs according to their qualification
2. Closing the productivity gap
• current labor productivity is 32% of the US labor productivity
• key government target: to increase no. of high-productivity jobs (30,000
USD/year) from 12 Mil in 2012 to 33 Mil in 2020
• additional target: productivity growth going faster than wage growth
(currently, we are the only large emerging economy which has
disadvantage to OECD countries in productivity adjusted for wage – and
the gap is expected to grow)

4. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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Competence
Foresight 2030
Strategic Initiatives Agency
for the President of Russian
Federation
Ministry of Science & Education
of Russian Federation
Context: Development of the roadmap for the
National System of Qualifications
& Competencies
Context: Third National Foresight of
Science & Technology

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Competence Foresight
2030: defining need for
changes in curriculum &
formats of TVET & HE for
growing tech-driven
sectors
Changes in technologies, business
processes & managerial pratices
due to technological progress and
social innovations
Growing pressure of global
competition for markets and talents
Increasing gap between
Russian TVET & HE
system and best
international practices
Efforts of the
government to kick-
start the knowledge-
intense economic
sectors

6. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
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New task
emerges
New task is
recognized & demand
for new skill is formed
New training
programs
developed
Training is conducted
for new skills
Typical technology lifecycle in ‘old’ industries
with low rate of technological change
…
…
‘Area of attention’
for skills foresght
Typical technology lifecycle in ‘new’ industries
with high rate of technological change

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Preliminary sector analysis, hypotheses regarding drivers of change
Formation of expert groups (employers, research sector, universities,
professional associations,regulators, advisors)
Revision of results and preparation of reports
Report verification with additional expert pool
FORESIGHT SESSION
Final reports
Literature review
Expert interviews
Rapid Foresight +
Expert panels & Deep dives
Expert panels + Simulations
Polling

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Key trends that drive
change in the sector
New ‘hard’ technologies
New ‘soft’ technologies
(work organization, e.g.
managerial
innovations, new org.
formats etc.)
New market
opportunities (new
products & services)
New market threats (inc.
competitive
technologies)
Change of working task
structure
Tasks that can be resolved with
existing skills & knowledge
Tasks that require new skills &
knowledge (hence demand for
new competences)
Tasks that no longer need
to be resolved
Key results of Skills 2030 Foresight

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Foresight of future
industrial structure
Identification of key new & growing industries and global
economy challenges. Meta-analysis of 30+ key foresights
& forecasts by leading national foresight groups (+ over
50 international foresights)
Competence Foresight
in key sectors
Foresight of competence demand for 19 growing & new
sectors, including aerospace, energy generation, smart
grids, nanotechnology, biotechnology, ICT, smart
transportation, preventive & personalized medicine etc.
Policy recommendations for HE&TVET system.
Total ca. 500 experts in ca. 20 sessions + 1500 in polling
Dissemination of
methodology
Dissemination of results
Reports for the Ministry of Education & Science and Strategic
Initiatives Agency (Spring 2013) + public presentations
General public report for professional orientation in
collaboration with leading media agency
(Summer-Fall 2013).
Methodology (foresight & IT solution?)

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Global challenges
General competences required: e.g.
teamwork, communication skills, understanding of
economic principles etc.
Also: meta-competences
These skills / competences to be delivered through the
majority of TVET programs
Cross-sectoral challenges
Key competences required to launch & support growth in
new & existing sectors (in the view of thechnological
development): ‘integrators’, ‘translators’, ‘adaptators’
Industry-specific
challenges
Key competences to support practice transformation
(new technological & managerial approaches), e.g.
energy audit or smart grid architecture design in energy
distribution sector

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‘Job of the future’
profiles
120 ‘job of the future’ profiles (bundles of key
competences) in 19 industries
HE & TVET curriculum
New competences translated into recommended
curriculum changes. E.g. for HE in medicine of the
future, we defined four tracks with basic training in
medicine & biology, math & ICT, physics & chemistry, and
economics, with further medical specialization
However: recommended, not implemented
Communication with
general public
Industry level results converted into
a career-recommendation tool: Map of 100 Jobs of The
Future and List of 30 Dying Jobs
(to be published in leading Russian media with the
support of the Agency of Strategic
Initiatives since July 2013)

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Key working
tasks for
knowledge-
intense
economic
sectors
2012-15 2015-20 2020-30
Key
competencies
Integrated
organization of R&D
and production
process for
knowledge-intensive
products
Working with
markets to improve
existing products
(evolutionary
innovations)
Creation &
implementation of
families of new
products &
solutions
(disruptive
innovations)
Integrators
Translators
Specialists to support
industrial rennovation
process
Adaptators
Standardizers
System
architects, technologis
ts and safety experts

13. Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO
Mature
product
industries
2012-2020 2020-2030
Machinery
building, energy
, transport, …
Young
product
industries
State-
dependent
industries
‘New’
energy, biotech
& biomed,
‘new’ ICT
Lack of resources to
support the skills
demand for fast
growing industry
Specialists to
implement existing
plans (continuation
of the present)
Not ready to revise
their product &
maekrting models
Space,
defense,
rail transport
Skills demand not
supported by TVET
that does not
recognize emerging
industries
Skills demand
largely covered by
existing (Soviet)
TVET system
Skills demand is
subject to
government strategic
decisions
hostages of existing
industrial models
hostages of weak industrial
positions
hostages of government
procurement

14. Substantial share of new competencies in technology-driven sectors are cross-
professional competencies or meta-competencies that go beyond the demand for
competencies in specific sectors. Multidisciplinarity is among the key competitive
advantages of the ‘worker of the future’.
For knowledge-based sectors, ‘ecosystemic’ approach is most productive: creation /
preparation of teams with inter-dependent competencies that allow to
invent, design, market, produce and support new products.
Future-oriented approach to skills & knowledge demand is necessary for the
development of new industries. However, only a highly limited share of employers is
ready to discuss their future needs. The key problem here is that most industries are
lacking ‘translators’ that could help connect strategic planning, technological
development and human resource preparation in the industry domain.
Moscow School of Management
SKOLKOVO
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15. Paradoxically, if we want our results to be implemented, we must get involved in the
implementation (i.e. share responsibility with foresight users)
Case 1: UAC
 leading aircraft production company (ca. 70% of Russian production) with ambitious
development plans
 skills anticipation for new investment plans & R&D up to 2020
 verification through comparison with industry leaders (Boeing & EADS)
 translated into existing TVET institutions & newly designed
Case 2: Ministry of Transportation
 skills anticipation to support industry strategy up to 2030
 translated into existing & newly designed TVET institutions
Case 3: Roadmap of a new industry (children goods & services)
 skills anticipation as a part of the roadmap (and condition for successful launch)
 user skills are critical!
Moscow School of Management
SKOLKOVO
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SKOLKOVO
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In Russian context
Focused studies and TVET
policies recommendations for
several industries, including:
• transportation (five segments:
automotive, naval, aero, rail, c
ity)
• goods & services for children
• nanotechnology
In international context
ILO project with SKOLKOVO:
• international workshop for
methodology revision &
development (July 2013)
• pilot projects in target
countries (TBD)