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The global future ahead: charting world scenarios

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World scenarios beyond 2030: fundamental challenges and trends supporting positive scenario(s)

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The global future ahead: charting world scenarios

  1. 1. Charting Global Future:Roads Beyondthe Phase Barrier Pavel Luksha SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management / METAVER
  2. 2. Starting as‘education of thefuture’ community charting our own ‘future of education’ up 2030 now one of leading Russian foresight groups with a unique and efficient technology
  3. 3. GLOBAL CRISIS … AND ITS ROOTSFINANCIAL / ECONOMICAL HUMANITY / NATURE DISBALANCEPOLITICAL LACK OF TRUSTETHICAL FUTURE ‘S INDIVIDUAL,RESOURCE NOT SHAREDENVIRONMENTAL
  4. 4. “We must continue to go intospace for the future of humanity. Idont think we will survive anotherthousand years without escapingbeyond our fragile planet.” Steven Hawking, physicist
  5. 5. NO MR HAWKING,IF WE ARE UNABLE TO COPE WITH EARTHLY MATTERS,THE SPACE WILL NOT SAVE US WE WILL FAIL … DISGRACEFULLY
  6. 6. GREEN COGNITIVITY: Phase transition scenario CYBERPUNK: (Instable) present continuous scenario APOCALYPSE: Phase catastrophe scenarioNOW +20-30 years
  7. 7. Can ‘Green Cognitivity’ scenarioemerge? We envisage three groups of trends that support this scenario – leading to a particular and unusual type of all-humanity transition beyond the phase barrier
  8. 8. TREND GROUP 1: LIFE <-> NET2011 20202 Billion users 5 Billion usersstore 1 Zettabyte store 38 Zettabyte<10% use 100+ Mbps >70% use 100+ Mbps
  9. 9. TREND GROUP 2:PHYSICAL <-> VIRTUAL Internet of Augmented Things Realities
  10. 10. TREND GROUP 3:INNER <-> OUTER Body Brain-Computer Extensions Connections
  11. 11. QUALITATIVE TRANSITION TRUST Anthropo- FUTURE-SHARING structures with new COLLABORATION quality of RESOURCE-SHARING
  12. 12. CHALLENGES BEFORE 2030s – 2050sTHE BARRIER MANAGING INCREASED CHALLENGES COMPLEXITY BEYOND THE BARRIER BARRIER- BREAKTHROUGH  SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES  HUMAN-MACHINE INTEGRATION INTEGRATION …  IMMORTALITY … 2012 – 2030s
  13. 13. FORESIGHTTO WORLD 2045

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