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Company Analysis-2

A Case on IT Companies in India
Example: Infosys
   Finacle, a product of the company is
    recognized as the world's scalable open-
    ended system based on providing core-
    banking solutions.
   In the year 2004, it crossed the billion-
    revenue mark.
   As on 31/03/2005, promoters held 21.76 %
    shares of the company while institutional
    investors held 47.62 %. Other investors and
    the general public held 11.62% and 19.01 %
    respectively.

                   Dr. Jitendra Mahakud       2
Financial Analysis as on March
           31 2005
   53.15% jumps in net profit
    Operating income of the company
    grew by 44.08%
   Operating profit grew by 47.73%
   Net profit margin was up by 182 basis
    points to 27.25% from 25.43% for the
    year under review.

                 Dr. Jitendra Mahakud   3
Infosys Vs. Index
                                            Company & Index

                 7000                                                                   10000

                                                                                        9000
                 6000
                                                                                        8000
                 5000




                                                                                                Infosys Market Price
                                                                                        7000
Sensex Indices




                                                                                        6000
                 4000
                                                                                        5000
                 3000
                                                                                        4000

                 2000                                                                   3000

                                                                                        2000
                 1000
                                                                                        1000

                   0                                                                    0
                        1999-00   2000-01       2001-02             2002-03   2003-04

                                              Sensex      Infosys




                                               Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                                    4
Return and Market Price

             Infosys (Return of Market Price % Sensex)

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%
  4/1/2004         7/1/2004                 10/1/2004             1/1/2005

                              Return (Market Price)     Return (Sensex)

                                             Dr. Jitendra Mahakud            5
SWOT Analysis of Infosys
   Strengths:
       Good brand recall amongst decision-makers.
       Strong technical expertise
   Weaknesses:
       Attrition amongst key professionals, especially on the
        delivery side.
       Inability to take on the Global Big Five in terms of scale.
   Opportunities:
       Growth in package implementation, consulting services and
        availability of cash reserves to pursue acquisitions
   Threats:
       MNCs building offshore capabilities, anti-off shoring lobby in
        Western markets

                             Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                        6
WIPRO
   Wipro is the largest company in India in
    terms of market capitalization.
   The company operates through five
    principal business segments: Global IT
    Services and Products, IT Enabled
    Services, India and Asia-Pac IT Services
    and Products, Consumer Care and
    Lighting and Health Science.
                  Dr. Jitendra Mahakud     7
Financial Analysis as on March
           31 2005
   The net profit growth has increased
    from 23.3% to 56.5%
   The company gross profit margin is
    24.9%
   The company decided to lessen the
    dividend this year which Rs. 29 per
    share to Rs. 5 per share.

                Dr. Jitendra Mahakud   8
One year Wipro’s comparative
      graph with BSE




…………. – WIPRO      ………....- BSE Sensex


                Dr. Jitendra Mahakud     9
SWOT Analysis of Wipro
   Strengths:
        The company   has brand recognition.
        The company   provides quality products.
        The company   has strong licensing networks.
        The company   has a strong economic base.
        The company   does an effective advertising campaigning.
        The company   is growing in international markets.
   Weaknesses:
        There is lack of backward and forward integration in the company.
        The company’s revenues are highly dependent on its IT service sales.
        The company is possibly slow in technology development.
        The company has no clear future plan.
   Opportunities:
        IT boom back after the debacle of 9/11.
        Offshore outsourcing is being increasingly accepted as a strategic imperative by more organizations
         today
   Threats:
        There are new technologies available for small engines that the company cannot compete with.
        There are new entrants into the market.




                                          Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                             10
Satyam
   Satyam Computer Services Ltd (Satyam) is a leading
    global consulting and IT services company
   It has excellent domain competencies in verticals
    such as Automotive, Banking & Financial Services,
    Insurance & Healthcare, Manufacturing, and in
    TIMES i.e. the Telecom, Infrastructure, Media,
    Entertainment & Semiconductors sector.
   As on 31/03/05 the Promoters, Institutional
    Investors, General Public and Others held 15.67%,
    66.96%, 4.47% and 12.90% of the share holding
    pattern of the company respectively.

                      Dr. Jitendra Mahakud          11
Financial Analysis as on March
           31 2005
   There is 36.30% growth in sales.
   There is a 28.38% growth in operating
    profit
   Gross profit increased by 25.52%
   Net profit margin increased by 238
    basis points from19.40 % to 21.78%


                 Dr. Jitendra Mahakud   12
Company and Index
                                     Company & Index

         7000                                                                    5000

                                                                                 4500
         6000
                                                                                 4000
         5000                                                                    3500




                                                                                        Satyam Market Price
                                                                                 3000
         4000
Sexsex




                                                                                 2500
         3000
                                                                                 2000

         2000                                                                    1500

                                                                                 1000
         1000
                                                                                 500

           0                                                                     0
                1999-00    2000-01        2001-02            2002-03   2003-04

                                       Sensex       Satyam


                                        Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                                  13
Return and Market Price

             Satyam (Return of Market Price % Sensex)

160%

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%
  4/1/2004         7/1/2004                  10/1/2004               1/1/2005

                              Return (Market Price)      Return (Sensex)


                                              Dr. Jitendra Mahakud              14
SWOT Analysis of Satyam
   Strengths:
        They have the third largest market share in India.
        Satyam has a strong financial position. Company revenues and earnings have been
         rising steadily, a low tax rate
   Weaknesses:
        Satyam is smaller in size compared to its direct competitors. Infosys, Wipro, Tata,
         CSC, are all multibillion.
        The company’s revenues are highly dependent on its IT service sales
   Opportunities:
        Satyam has been selected by Check Free Investment Services (CIS), to become the
         partner to CIS in the development of its next generation Check Free EPL(TM) platform.
        Offshore outsourcing is being increasingly accepted as a strategic imperative by more
         organizations today
   Threats:
          Lot of competition in this industry including pricing pressures and technological
         development.
        Changes in political, economic or other factors such as currency exchange rates,
         inflation rates affect the worldwide business in each of the company’s Operations




                                      Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                     15
Current Ratio
                           Current Ratio

            8
            6                                                Satyam
Number




            4                                                Infosys
            2                                                Wipro

            0
                    Mar    Mar    Mar    Mar    Mar    Mar
                   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005

         Satyam    4.93   3.44   6.81   4.51   5.34   5.74
         Infosys   4.18   2.9    3.09   3.16   2.03   3.2
         Wipro     1.66   2.98   3.79   3.29   2.01   2.53

                                   Year



                                    Dr. Jitendra Mahakud               16
Net Profit Margin =                  Profit after Tax
                                      ---------------------
                                           Net Sales

              Net profit margin ratio

     0.5




       0
            Mar    Mar         Mar       Mar     Mar      Mar
  Satyam    0.19   0.4       0.26       0.15     0.22     0.22
  Infosys   0.33   0.33      0.31       0.26     0.26     0.28
  Wipro     0.1    0.21      0.25        0.2     0.18     0.21
                                  Year

                   Satyam            Infosys      Wipro


                          Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                   17
Debt
Debt Equity Ratio =                           ----------------
                                                 Equity


      1.00
      0.80
                                                     Satyam
      0.60
                                                     Infosys
      0.40                                           Wipro
      0.20
      0.00

             Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar
    Satyam 0.77 0.23 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
    Infosys 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
    Wipro    0.10 0.30 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20

                       Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                      18
Total Liabilities
Debt Ratio =                     ---------------------
                                 Total Assets

                        Debt Ratio

              0.6
                                                     Satyam
  Number




              0.4
                                                     Infosys
              0.2                                    Wipro
                0

           Satyam 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
           Infosys   0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2
           Wipro     0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
                                Year


                          Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                 19
Return on Equity = Profit after
Tax / Book Value of Equity

                Return on Equity
       20

       10

        0
             Mar     Mar       Mar       Mar   Mar     Mar
   Satyam    2.09   16.82     7.32      4.53   6.81    7.45
   Infosys   2.33   2.99      2.57      2.22   2.55    9.8
   Wipro     1.77   9.41     10.76      7.68   8.25    9.75
                                  Year

                     Satyam          Infosys   Wipro


                      Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                    20
EBIT
 ROCE =          -------------------------------------------
                Total Assets – Current Liabilities


           Return on Capital Employed

          0.6

          0.4                                     Satyam
Rs.




                                                  Infosys
          0.2                                     Wipro

           0

      Satyam 0.28 0.57 0.27 0.19 0.27 0.29
      Infosys    0.4 0.51 0.46 0.42 0.46 0.23
      Wipro     0.38 0.39 0.38 0.28 0.3 0.36
                            Year



                         Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                  21
EPS = Profit after Tax / No. of
Outstanding Shares

                     Earning Per Share
            200.00
Rs./Share




            100.00

              0.00
                      Mar   Mar      Mar       Mar   Mar   Mar
            Satyam 23.11 17.29 14.29 9.77 17.57 23.50
            Infosys 44.37 95.05 122.1 144.6 186.6 70.58
            Wipro    43.22 23.38 27.54 25.85 28.93 46.82
                                         Year



                            Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                 22
Risk Analysis

         RISK COMPOSURE (2003-4)                                        RISK COMPOSURE (2004-5)
             100%                                                         100%


              50%                                                           50%


                  0%                                                            0%
                       SATYAM   INFOSYS   WIPRO                                      SATYAM   INFOSYS   WIPRO
Unsysystematic Risk    53.47%   69.35%    51.02%                                     62.78%   53.31%    43.27%
                                                              Unsysystematic Risk
Systematic Risk        46.53%   30.65%    48.98%
                                                              Systematic Risk        37.22%   46.69%    56.73%




                                                   Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                          23
Beta Analysis

        YEARLY BETA (2003-4)                                YEARLY BETA (2004-5)

                                                                                1.31
 2       1.65                                      1.5
                            1.45
                   1.26                                      0.81       0.8
1.5                                                 1
 1
                                                   0.5
0.5
 0                                                  0
      SATYAM    INFOSYS   WIPRO                           SATYAM    INFOSYS   WIPRO




                                   Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                24
Alpha Analysis: Alpha indicates the stock return when the market
  return is zero. A positive alpha indicates that the stock is under
  priced and negative alpha indicates that the stock is overpriced
                   based on assets pricing model.



                    Alpha (2004-5)

                                20.12%
   25.00%
   20.00%
                  9.84%                          10.42%
   15.00%
   10.00%
     5.00%
     0.00%
             SATYAM        INFOSYS           WIPRO




                          Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                    25
Infosys technologies ltd.

       Rs. Crore            Actual                                               Projected
                          Mar 2005          Mar 2006          Mar 2007          Mar 2008          Mar 2009          Mar 2010
                         12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths
         PAT                   1904.38          2765.09           3789.38            5168.40          6999.16           9376.59
Appropriation of
profits
   Dividends                    356.56           723.92            992.08            1353.12          1832.42           2454.85
   Retained earnings           1547.82          2041.17           2797.30            3815.28          5166.74           6921.74
No.of Shareholders          270570549         270570549         270570549         270570549         270570549         270570549
EPS                                70.38         102.19            140.05             191.02           258.68            346.55
P/E                                31.91             31.91             31.91             31.91             31.91             31.91
Market Price                2245.95             3261.04           4469.04            6095.40          8254.53          11058.38


Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n = (11058.38)/(1+.197)^5 = Rs 4500.08
From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 11060.68.
After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 19.7%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 4500.08.
As it can be seen from the above table, the market price on March 2005 is comparatively less than the calculated intrinsic value.
Thus, it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is highly undervalued in comparison with its intrinsic value.




                                                      Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                                           26
Wipro technologies ltd.

              Rs. Crore                       Actual                                                Projected
                                           Mar05               Mar06             Mar07              Mar08              Mar09             Mar10
                 PAT                      12 mths            12 mths            12 mths            12 mths           12 mths            12 mths
                                                 1494.82            1779.14            2199.43           2719.05            3361.50           4155.86
Appropriation of profits
  Dividends                                        401.12            363.37             449.21            555.34             686.55             848.79
  Retained earnings                              1093.70            1415.77            1750.22           2163.71            2674.95           3307.07
No.of Shareholders                            703570522         703570522          703570522          703570522         703570522          703570522
EPS                                                 21.25              25.29             31.26              38.65              47.78             59.07
P/E                                                 29.73              29.73             29.73              29.73              29.73             29.73
Market Price                                  670.95                 751.79             929.39           1148.96            1420.43           1756.09


      Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n = (1756.09)/(1+.2928)^5 = Rs 486.29
      From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 1756.09.
      After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 29.28%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 486.29.
      From the above table, we can observe that market price of share on 31 st mach 2005 is 670.95 which is higher than its intrinsic value i.e. Rs 486.29.
      Thus it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is very much overvalued in comparison with its intrinsic value.
      This analysis proves that from the investor point of view, this share is looking weak for the near future.




                                                                     Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                                                     27
Satyam Computer Services Ltd.

            Rs. Crore                 Actual                                             Projected
                                   Mar 2005          Mar 2006          Mar 2007          Mar 2008          Mar 2009          Mar 2010
                                  12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths           12 mths
                 PAT                     750.26          1190.08           1601.21           2147.28           2873.76           3842.15
  Appropriation of profits
    Dividends                            180.49           214.75            288.94            387.47            518.57            693.31
    Retained earnings                    569.77           975.34           1312.27           1759.80           2355.20           3148.84
  No.of Shareholders                 319265291        319265291         319265291         319265291         319265291         319265291
  EPS                                       23.50             37.28             50.15             67.26             90.01         120.34
  P/E                                       17.38             17.38             17.38             17.38             17.38             17.38
  Market Price                              408.5         647.85            871.66           1168.92           1564.41           2091.57


Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n= (1756.09)/(1+.1965)^5 = Rs 852.92
From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 2091.57.
After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 16.7%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 852.92.
As it can be seen from the above table, the market price on March 2005 is comparatively less than the calculated intrinsic value.
Thus it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is very much undervalued in comparison with its intrinsic value.
This analysis proves that from the investor point of view, this share is a good buy for the near future.



                                                         Dr. Jitendra Mahakud                                                                 28

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Company Analysis 2

  • 1. Company Analysis-2 A Case on IT Companies in India
  • 2. Example: Infosys  Finacle, a product of the company is recognized as the world's scalable open- ended system based on providing core- banking solutions.  In the year 2004, it crossed the billion- revenue mark.  As on 31/03/2005, promoters held 21.76 % shares of the company while institutional investors held 47.62 %. Other investors and the general public held 11.62% and 19.01 % respectively. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 2
  • 3. Financial Analysis as on March 31 2005  53.15% jumps in net profit  Operating income of the company grew by 44.08%  Operating profit grew by 47.73%  Net profit margin was up by 182 basis points to 27.25% from 25.43% for the year under review. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 3
  • 4. Infosys Vs. Index Company & Index 7000 10000 9000 6000 8000 5000 Infosys Market Price 7000 Sensex Indices 6000 4000 5000 3000 4000 2000 3000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 Sensex Infosys Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 4
  • 5. Return and Market Price Infosys (Return of Market Price % Sensex) 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 4/1/2004 7/1/2004 10/1/2004 1/1/2005 Return (Market Price) Return (Sensex) Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 5
  • 6. SWOT Analysis of Infosys  Strengths:  Good brand recall amongst decision-makers.  Strong technical expertise  Weaknesses:  Attrition amongst key professionals, especially on the delivery side.  Inability to take on the Global Big Five in terms of scale.  Opportunities:  Growth in package implementation, consulting services and availability of cash reserves to pursue acquisitions  Threats:  MNCs building offshore capabilities, anti-off shoring lobby in Western markets Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 6
  • 7. WIPRO  Wipro is the largest company in India in terms of market capitalization.  The company operates through five principal business segments: Global IT Services and Products, IT Enabled Services, India and Asia-Pac IT Services and Products, Consumer Care and Lighting and Health Science. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 7
  • 8. Financial Analysis as on March 31 2005  The net profit growth has increased from 23.3% to 56.5%  The company gross profit margin is 24.9%  The company decided to lessen the dividend this year which Rs. 29 per share to Rs. 5 per share. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 8
  • 9. One year Wipro’s comparative graph with BSE …………. – WIPRO ………....- BSE Sensex Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 9
  • 10. SWOT Analysis of Wipro  Strengths:  The company has brand recognition.  The company provides quality products.  The company has strong licensing networks.  The company has a strong economic base.  The company does an effective advertising campaigning.  The company is growing in international markets.  Weaknesses:  There is lack of backward and forward integration in the company.  The company’s revenues are highly dependent on its IT service sales.  The company is possibly slow in technology development.  The company has no clear future plan.  Opportunities:  IT boom back after the debacle of 9/11.  Offshore outsourcing is being increasingly accepted as a strategic imperative by more organizations today  Threats:  There are new technologies available for small engines that the company cannot compete with.  There are new entrants into the market. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 10
  • 11. Satyam  Satyam Computer Services Ltd (Satyam) is a leading global consulting and IT services company  It has excellent domain competencies in verticals such as Automotive, Banking & Financial Services, Insurance & Healthcare, Manufacturing, and in TIMES i.e. the Telecom, Infrastructure, Media, Entertainment & Semiconductors sector.  As on 31/03/05 the Promoters, Institutional Investors, General Public and Others held 15.67%, 66.96%, 4.47% and 12.90% of the share holding pattern of the company respectively. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 11
  • 12. Financial Analysis as on March 31 2005  There is 36.30% growth in sales.  There is a 28.38% growth in operating profit  Gross profit increased by 25.52%  Net profit margin increased by 238 basis points from19.40 % to 21.78% Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 12
  • 13. Company and Index Company & Index 7000 5000 4500 6000 4000 5000 3500 Satyam Market Price 3000 4000 Sexsex 2500 3000 2000 2000 1500 1000 1000 500 0 0 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 Sensex Satyam Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 13
  • 14. Return and Market Price Satyam (Return of Market Price % Sensex) 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 4/1/2004 7/1/2004 10/1/2004 1/1/2005 Return (Market Price) Return (Sensex) Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 14
  • 15. SWOT Analysis of Satyam  Strengths:  They have the third largest market share in India.  Satyam has a strong financial position. Company revenues and earnings have been rising steadily, a low tax rate  Weaknesses:  Satyam is smaller in size compared to its direct competitors. Infosys, Wipro, Tata, CSC, are all multibillion.  The company’s revenues are highly dependent on its IT service sales  Opportunities:  Satyam has been selected by Check Free Investment Services (CIS), to become the partner to CIS in the development of its next generation Check Free EPL(TM) platform.  Offshore outsourcing is being increasingly accepted as a strategic imperative by more organizations today  Threats:  Lot of competition in this industry including pricing pressures and technological development.  Changes in political, economic or other factors such as currency exchange rates, inflation rates affect the worldwide business in each of the company’s Operations Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 15
  • 16. Current Ratio Current Ratio 8 6 Satyam Number 4 Infosys 2 Wipro 0 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Satyam 4.93 3.44 6.81 4.51 5.34 5.74 Infosys 4.18 2.9 3.09 3.16 2.03 3.2 Wipro 1.66 2.98 3.79 3.29 2.01 2.53 Year Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 16
  • 17. Net Profit Margin = Profit after Tax --------------------- Net Sales Net profit margin ratio 0.5 0 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Satyam 0.19 0.4 0.26 0.15 0.22 0.22 Infosys 0.33 0.33 0.31 0.26 0.26 0.28 Wipro 0.1 0.21 0.25 0.2 0.18 0.21 Year Satyam Infosys Wipro Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 17
  • 18. Debt Debt Equity Ratio = ---------------- Equity 1.00 0.80 Satyam 0.60 Infosys 0.40 Wipro 0.20 0.00 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Satyam 0.77 0.23 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 Infosys 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wipro 0.10 0.30 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 18
  • 19. Total Liabilities Debt Ratio = --------------------- Total Assets Debt Ratio 0.6 Satyam Number 0.4 Infosys 0.2 Wipro 0 Satyam 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Infosys 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 Wipro 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Year Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 19
  • 20. Return on Equity = Profit after Tax / Book Value of Equity Return on Equity 20 10 0 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Satyam 2.09 16.82 7.32 4.53 6.81 7.45 Infosys 2.33 2.99 2.57 2.22 2.55 9.8 Wipro 1.77 9.41 10.76 7.68 8.25 9.75 Year Satyam Infosys Wipro Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 20
  • 21. EBIT ROCE = ------------------------------------------- Total Assets – Current Liabilities Return on Capital Employed 0.6 0.4 Satyam Rs. Infosys 0.2 Wipro 0 Satyam 0.28 0.57 0.27 0.19 0.27 0.29 Infosys 0.4 0.51 0.46 0.42 0.46 0.23 Wipro 0.38 0.39 0.38 0.28 0.3 0.36 Year Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 21
  • 22. EPS = Profit after Tax / No. of Outstanding Shares Earning Per Share 200.00 Rs./Share 100.00 0.00 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Satyam 23.11 17.29 14.29 9.77 17.57 23.50 Infosys 44.37 95.05 122.1 144.6 186.6 70.58 Wipro 43.22 23.38 27.54 25.85 28.93 46.82 Year Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 22
  • 23. Risk Analysis RISK COMPOSURE (2003-4) RISK COMPOSURE (2004-5) 100% 100% 50% 50% 0% 0% SATYAM INFOSYS WIPRO SATYAM INFOSYS WIPRO Unsysystematic Risk 53.47% 69.35% 51.02% 62.78% 53.31% 43.27% Unsysystematic Risk Systematic Risk 46.53% 30.65% 48.98% Systematic Risk 37.22% 46.69% 56.73% Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 23
  • 24. Beta Analysis YEARLY BETA (2003-4) YEARLY BETA (2004-5) 1.31 2 1.65 1.5 1.45 1.26 0.81 0.8 1.5 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 SATYAM INFOSYS WIPRO SATYAM INFOSYS WIPRO Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 24
  • 25. Alpha Analysis: Alpha indicates the stock return when the market return is zero. A positive alpha indicates that the stock is under priced and negative alpha indicates that the stock is overpriced based on assets pricing model. Alpha (2004-5) 20.12% 25.00% 20.00% 9.84% 10.42% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% SATYAM INFOSYS WIPRO Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 25
  • 26. Infosys technologies ltd. Rs. Crore Actual Projected Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths PAT 1904.38 2765.09 3789.38 5168.40 6999.16 9376.59 Appropriation of profits Dividends 356.56 723.92 992.08 1353.12 1832.42 2454.85 Retained earnings 1547.82 2041.17 2797.30 3815.28 5166.74 6921.74 No.of Shareholders 270570549 270570549 270570549 270570549 270570549 270570549 EPS 70.38 102.19 140.05 191.02 258.68 346.55 P/E 31.91 31.91 31.91 31.91 31.91 31.91 Market Price 2245.95 3261.04 4469.04 6095.40 8254.53 11058.38 Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n = (11058.38)/(1+.197)^5 = Rs 4500.08 From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 11060.68. After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 19.7%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 4500.08. As it can be seen from the above table, the market price on March 2005 is comparatively less than the calculated intrinsic value. Thus, it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is highly undervalued in comparison with its intrinsic value. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 26
  • 27. Wipro technologies ltd. Rs. Crore Actual Projected Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 PAT 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 1494.82 1779.14 2199.43 2719.05 3361.50 4155.86 Appropriation of profits Dividends 401.12 363.37 449.21 555.34 686.55 848.79 Retained earnings 1093.70 1415.77 1750.22 2163.71 2674.95 3307.07 No.of Shareholders 703570522 703570522 703570522 703570522 703570522 703570522 EPS 21.25 25.29 31.26 38.65 47.78 59.07 P/E 29.73 29.73 29.73 29.73 29.73 29.73 Market Price 670.95 751.79 929.39 1148.96 1420.43 1756.09 Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n = (1756.09)/(1+.2928)^5 = Rs 486.29 From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 1756.09. After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 29.28%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 486.29. From the above table, we can observe that market price of share on 31 st mach 2005 is 670.95 which is higher than its intrinsic value i.e. Rs 486.29. Thus it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is very much overvalued in comparison with its intrinsic value. This analysis proves that from the investor point of view, this share is looking weak for the near future. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 27
  • 28. Satyam Computer Services Ltd. Rs. Crore Actual Projected Mar 2005 Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths 12 mths PAT 750.26 1190.08 1601.21 2147.28 2873.76 3842.15 Appropriation of profits Dividends 180.49 214.75 288.94 387.47 518.57 693.31 Retained earnings 569.77 975.34 1312.27 1759.80 2355.20 3148.84 No.of Shareholders 319265291 319265291 319265291 319265291 319265291 319265291 EPS 23.50 37.28 50.15 67.26 90.01 120.34 P/E 17.38 17.38 17.38 17.38 17.38 17.38 Market Price 408.5 647.85 871.66 1168.92 1564.41 2091.57 Intrinsic Value = Market Price/ (1+ke)^n= (1756.09)/(1+.1965)^5 = Rs 852.92 From the above table, we can observe that projected market price of share after 5 years i.e. FY2010 is Rs 2091.57. After discounting it to present value, by taking cost on equity (ke) as 16.7%, we get the intrinsic value of Rs 852.92. As it can be seen from the above table, the market price on March 2005 is comparatively less than the calculated intrinsic value. Thus it can be analyzed that the market price of the share is very much undervalued in comparison with its intrinsic value. This analysis proves that from the investor point of view, this share is a good buy for the near future. Dr. Jitendra Mahakud 28