Communicating risk and hazard to policy-makers
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Sir Mark Walport discusses communicating risk and hazards to policymakers. Effective communication requires understanding your audience and recognizing that evidence is just one part of policy decisions, which are also influenced by politics and implementation challenges. When communicating complex or value-laden issues, it is important to address misinformation, inform the public, and have a wider societal conversation about risk that considers all perspectives. Throughout emergencies, communicating risk assessments to policymakers is essential for an effective response.
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Communicating risk and hazard to policy-makers
- 1. Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Sir Mark Walport Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
- 2. 2 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers • Health, wellbeing, security & resilience • Knowledge translated to economic advantage • The right science for emergencies • Underpinning policy with evidence • Advocacy and leadership for science Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser Credit: iStockphoto
- 3. 3 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Where does risk come in? Natural Credit: CDC/EthleenLloydCredit: Maccheek/PD
- 4. 4 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Where does risk come in? Human Credit: AP Credit: @Boston_to_a_T/Twitter
- 5. 5 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers National Risk Register
- 6. 6 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Risk all pervasive in work as GCSA Innovation held back by badly framed discussions about risk •Communication •Science meets values •Regulation
- 7. 7 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Communicating risk to policy makers • Hazard • Exposure • Vulnerability • Risk • Uncertainty • Threat Credit: Warren Photographic
- 8. 8 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Language matters Source: Somerville and Hassol, Communicating the science of climate change, Physics Today, October 2011 The need for scientific precision needs to be balanced with the need to be understood by non- specialists
- 9. 9 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Source: Somerville and Hassol, Communicating the science of climate change, Physics Today, October 2011 BUT! Language matters The need for scientific precision needs to be balanced with the need to be understood by non- specialists
- 10. 10 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers COBR Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) Non-Governmental Organisations Government Scientists Industry Academia • 2010 – Volcanic Ash • 2011 – Fukushima • 2012 – Olympics • 2013 – Flooding • 2014 – Ebola • 2015 – Nepal Earthquake • Operational response • Impact management • Recovery • Public Information Communicating Risk in an Emergency Home Office Rapid Diagnostics, 25th June 201310 SACs
- 11. 11 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Communicating Risk in an Emergency: Ebola • Modelling – what are the best and reasonable worst case scenarios? • Risk to UK – how many cases should we expect to see? • Screening – will it be effective in identifying cases? • Virus survival – how long does the virus last on different surfaces? Will it survive in sewage? • Vaccines –What clinical trials do we need? • What else can we do? Cumulative cases 24 666 Cases in past 21 days 398 Cumulative deaths 10 179 WHO Ebola Situation Report - 18 March 2015
- 12. 12 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Communicating Risk in an Emergency: Nepal Earthquake • Risk Assessment - What is the reasonable worst case scenario? Is there a risk of another earthquake? • Aftershocks – How many, what magnitude, how long will they last and where might these occur? • Landslides – Where have they occurred? What is the risk of further landslides? • Monsoon season – What additional risks will this pose? • Geo-mapping - What satellite data can we provide to aid the response?Mapping and images from Nepal Earthquake 2015 Credit: Omar Havana/Getty
- 13. 13 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Effective communication requires an understanding of your audience Source: Rankmaniac, 2012
- 14. 14 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers10 Science Advice to Government - Auckland Scientific evidence is just one part of the picture We can provide the very best evidence but must recognise that the ‘lenses’ of politics and the machinery of delivery will all interact to produce the final outcome. Politics DeliveryEvidence Policy Communicating to policy makers: Lenses
- 15. 15 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Communicating to policy makers: Lenses – Shale gas Scientific concerns ‘Hydraulic fracturing’ Fossil fuel, engineering and geological: • Loss of integrity in aquifer zone • Seismic events • Methane release Understanding public attitudes ‘Fracking’ Anti-fracking movements are not solely concerned with emissions or the risks of pollution or seismicity: •Opposition to the oil and gas industry •‘Not in my back yard’ •Opposition to continued exploitation of fossil fuels in general Credit: greensefa/CC BY 2.0
- 16. 16 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers • Human Fertility and Embryology Authority • addresses policy issues relating to fertility regulation • sometimes ethically and clinically complex • Scrupulous care in assessing a wide range of data and evidence • Comprehensive programme of public engagement • Helped build trust in community at large • Worked closely with legislators Science meets values Credit: iStockphoto Credit: CBCEW
- 17. 17 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Communication when science meets values …and to counter misinformation To inform…
- 18. 18 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Meta-analysis is a highly valuable tool
- 19. 19 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Scientists should take care not to over-hype their own research
- 20. 20 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers “If you say the world is going to end, people switch off thinking ‘here they go again, trying to sell us something’.” Focus group participant, Sutton Coldfield (Shuckburgh et al, 2012) “If you say the world is going to end, people switch off thinking ‘here they go again, trying to sell us something’.” Focus group participant, Sutton Coldfield (Shuckburgh et al, 2012) Framing matters Positive or negative framing (and values emphasised) can influence how information is assimilated
- 21. 21 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Perception of future risk is influenced by experience Source: Defra/Ipsos MORI/AEA Technology, 2013
- 22. 22 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Perception of future risk is influenced by experience Source: Defra/Ipsos MORI/AEA Technology, 2013
- 23. 23 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Holding a Wider Conversation about Risk • Risk – a societal issue • Language • Values and lenses • Who benefits and who carries the risk • Transparency • Widening the conversation is a democratic necessity Credit: Focus Features
- 24. 24 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Scientific Diplomacy
- 25. 25 Communicating risk and hazard to policy makers Conclusion • To be a good scientist, you need to be a good communicator – Science isn’t finished until it is communicated! • During emergencies, effective communication to policy makers is essential • We need to be precise in our communication: • Hazard vs Risk • The level of uncertainty • Language we use
- 26. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through contact@go-science.gsi.gov.uk . @uksciencechief www.gov.uk/go-science
Editor's Notes
- My role is of course strongly influenced by the issues that the Government of the day cares about, such as health, economic well-being and security, including the country’s resilience to natural and man-made disasters: all aspects which you and Government colleagues play a part in addressing on a daily basis.
- There are two main issues that can get in the way of effective science communication. Talking at cross purposes. When we discuss something, we need to be clear what we are discussing. As such, we need to be clear on the language we use and what we mean when we use it. Innovations, and the risks that accompany them, often form the basis of scientific communication. The distinction between hazard and risk often catches people out. Risk is a product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is important we do not confuse these terms as it distorts the debate and leads to unfounded conclusions.
- The role of science in a national or international emergency S&T advice needs to be made available at very short notice (typically in an hour or so in the first instance) I convene a Science Advisory Group in an Emergency (SAGE) based on pre-arranged lists of experts to help me advise the Prime Minister and Cabinet in ‘real-time’. SAGE needs to advise on the potential impacts of any emergency. Combined with legal, political, economic considerations by COBR who decide on national response [NJ: It would be good to give a couple of historic examples]; [i.e. presumably the likes of Fukushima, Icelandic volcanoes; could also cite recent examples of flooding, etc. where forecasts and preparedness have been fairly good]
- Science is rarely the only answer to a policy question that a civil servant needs to consider – when giving advice scientists need to be aware that they are part of wider picture.
- Example of lenses – shale gas From a science perspective, shale gas can be safely extracted from the ground. However, any politician making a decision about shale gas needs to consider a much wider range of issues. Science can help keep the debate in the appropriate area, but it can not settle the debate.
- The second issue for science communication comes when science meets values. It is perfectly valid to have an opinion of an issue based on your values. The point where it becomes problematic is when arguments that are values-based are introduced into a scientific debate. This can be illustrated by the debate around the legalisation of mitochondrial DNA replacement therapies. Three scientific reviews by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) suggest the technique is "not unsafe". A review by the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, as well as a public consultation by the fertility regulator, argued the creation of three-person babies was ethical. Some people opposed the legislation, often for religious or ‘values-based’ reasons. This is not wrong, indeed the debate should feature their views, however, these values-based objections, should not come into a debate about the science of the procedure (and vice versa).