The document discusses various methods for valuing common stock, including dividend discount models, residual income models, and price ratio models. It provides examples and formulas for the basic dividend discount model, two-stage dividend growth model, and constant growth dividend discount model. It also discusses approaches for estimating growth rates, such as using historical averages, industry averages, and sustainable growth rates. The examples show how to apply the models to value stocks and estimate what a fair price would be based on expected future dividends and appropriate discount rates.
Corporate Valuations “Techniques & Application”: A compilation of research oriented valuation articles.
Contents: Business valuation, Relative valuation, Sum of the parts valuation and value creation, ESOP valuation, Discounted Cash Flow Valuation, Enterprise Valuation etc.
Brief History, Responsibilities and Functions of the Securities and Exchange Commission in Nigeria.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the apex regulatory body for Nigeria's capital market. It, however, operates under the supervision of the Federal Ministry of Finance.
Corporate Valuations “Techniques & Application”: A compilation of research oriented valuation articles.
Contents: Business valuation, Relative valuation, Sum of the parts valuation and value creation, ESOP valuation, Discounted Cash Flow Valuation, Enterprise Valuation etc.
Brief History, Responsibilities and Functions of the Securities and Exchange Commission in Nigeria.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the apex regulatory body for Nigeria's capital market. It, however, operates under the supervision of the Federal Ministry of Finance.
For Videos use the links below
0 Course Introduction:: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9km4aXTus5c
1 Financial system and Environment : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC2bAftm43c
2 Participants in a Financial System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEv_y7_aR7o
3 Functions of a Financial System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T73-Dd8RM4I
4 Financial System and its components: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovkAjEO8YAw
5 Efficiency of a financial system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xEUtvKYvPc
Here is our topic-specific Investment Management Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides for portfolio strategy and implementation. The professionally designed wealth management PowerPoint complete deck has various professional looking PPT slides such as introduction to investments, objectives of portfolio management, types of investment, market scenario overview investment instruments, securities portfolio, analysis and valuation of equity securities, industry analysis PESTEL, SWOT analysis, discounted cash flow method, financial statement analysis, company cash flow statement, issues inefficient markets, technical analysis types, investment in special situations, fixed income and leveraged securities, bond valuation system, reinvestment risk table, type of convertible securities, options analysis, warrants summarization overview, derivative products, put and call options, stock index futures and options, stock indexes comparison table, broaden the investment perspective, international security market highlights, global market trends, mutual funds investment criteria overview, investment in real estate, diversified real estate classification, KPIs and dashboards, etc. Download the wealth management presentation deck to achieve your investment objectives. Charge up your audience with our Investment Management Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides. They will get completely energized.
Used for MBA professional accounting class room presentation and it includes FASB rules and forex currency dealings details for purchase and sale of goods and services with foreign party.
For Videos use the links below
0 Course Introduction:: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9km4aXTus5c
1 Financial system and Environment : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BC2bAftm43c
2 Participants in a Financial System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEv_y7_aR7o
3 Functions of a Financial System: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T73-Dd8RM4I
4 Financial System and its components: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovkAjEO8YAw
5 Efficiency of a financial system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xEUtvKYvPc
Here is our topic-specific Investment Management Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides for portfolio strategy and implementation. The professionally designed wealth management PowerPoint complete deck has various professional looking PPT slides such as introduction to investments, objectives of portfolio management, types of investment, market scenario overview investment instruments, securities portfolio, analysis and valuation of equity securities, industry analysis PESTEL, SWOT analysis, discounted cash flow method, financial statement analysis, company cash flow statement, issues inefficient markets, technical analysis types, investment in special situations, fixed income and leveraged securities, bond valuation system, reinvestment risk table, type of convertible securities, options analysis, warrants summarization overview, derivative products, put and call options, stock index futures and options, stock indexes comparison table, broaden the investment perspective, international security market highlights, global market trends, mutual funds investment criteria overview, investment in real estate, diversified real estate classification, KPIs and dashboards, etc. Download the wealth management presentation deck to achieve your investment objectives. Charge up your audience with our Investment Management Analysis Powerpoint Presentation Slides. They will get completely energized.
Used for MBA professional accounting class room presentation and it includes FASB rules and forex currency dealings details for purchase and sale of goods and services with foreign party.
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued (with respect to their theoretical value) are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will, on the whole, rise in value, while overvalued stocks will, on the whole, fall.
Slide 1
12-1
Cost of Capital
Slide 2
12-2
Key Concepts and Skills
• Know how to determine:
– A firm’s cost of equity capital
– A firm’s cost of debt
– A firm’s overall cost of capital
• Understand pitfalls of overall cost of
capital and how to manage them
From our modules on capital budgeting, we learn that the discount rate, or required return, on an investment
is a critical input. However, we haven’t discussed how to come up with that particular number. This module
brings together many of our earlier discussions dealing with stocks and bonds, capital budgeting, and risk
and return. Our goal is to illustrate how firms go about determining the required return on a proposed
investment. Understanding required returns is important to everyone because all proposed projects must
offer returns in excess of their required returns to be acceptable.
In this module, we learn how to compute a firm’s cost of capital and find out what it means to the firm and
its investors. We will also learn when to use the firm’s cost of capital and, perhaps more important, when
not to use it.
Why is it important? A good estimate is required for:
• good capital budgeting decisions—neither the NPV rule nor the IRR rule can be implemented without
knowledge of the appropriate discount rate
• financing decisions—the optimal/target capital structure minimizes the cost of capital
• operating decisions—cost of capital is used by regulatory agencies in order to determine the “fair”
return in some regulated industries (e.g. utilities)
Slide 3
12-3
Chapter Outline
• The Cost of Capital: Some Preliminaries
• The Cost of Equity (RE)
• The Costs of Debt (RD) and Preferred Stock (RP)
• The Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
• Divisional and Project Costs of Capital
Slide 4
12-4
Cost of Capital Basics
• The cost to a firm for capital funding = the
return to the providers of those funds
– The return earned on assets depends on the
risk of those assets
– A firm’s cost of capital indicates how the
market views the risk of the firm’s assets
– A firm must earn at least the required return to
compensate investors for the financing they
have provided
– The required return is the same as the
appropriate discount rate
Cost of capital, required return, and appropriate discount rate are different phrases that all refer to the
opportunity cost of using capital in one way as opposed to alternative financial market investments of the
same systematic risk.
• Required return is from an investor’s point of view.
• Cost of capital is the same return from the firm’s point of view.
• Appropriate discount rate is the same return used in a PV calculation.
Slide 5
12-5
Cost of Equity
• The cost of equity is the return required by
equity investors given the risk of the cash
flows from the firm
• Two major methods for determining the
cost of equity
▪Dividend growth model
▪SML .
Slide 1
7-1
Cash Flows for Stockholders
• If you own a share of stock, you can receive
cash in two ways
The company pays dividends
You sell your shares, either to another investor in
the market or back to the company
• As with bonds, the price of the stock is the
present value of these expected cash flows
Dividends → cash income
Selling → capital gains
In this module, we turn to the other major source of financing for corporations, common and preferred stock.
The goal of financial management is to maximize stock prices, so an understanding of what determines
share values is obviously a key concern. The dividends currently being paid are one of the primary factors
we look at when we attempt to value common stocks. This module explores dividends, stock values, and
the connection between the two.
A share of common stock is more difficult to value in practice than a bond, for at least three reasons.
First, with common stock, not even the promised cash flows are known in advance.
Second, the life of the investment is essentially forever, since common stock has no maturity.
Third, there is no way to easily observe the rate of return that the market requires.
However, we can come up with the present value of the future cash flows for a share of stock making some
assumptions.
Slide 2
7-2
One Period Example
• Suppose you are thinking of purchasing the
stock of Moore Oil, Inc.
– You expect it to pay a $2 dividend in one year
– You believe you can sell the stock for $14 at that
time.
– You require a return of 20% on investments of this
risk
– What is the maximum you would be willing to
pay?
Slide 3
7-3
One Period Example
• D1 = $2 dividend expected in one year
• R = 20%
• P1 = $14
• CF1 = $2 + $14 = $16
• Compute the PV of the expected cash flows
33.13$
20.1
)142(
P
0
Note, the calculation can also be done as:
FV = 14; PMT = 2; I/Y = 20; N = 1; CPT PV = -13.33
Slide 4
7-4
Two Period Example
• What if you decide to hold the stock for two years?
– In addition to the dividend in one year, you expect a
dividend of $2.10 in two years and a stock price of
$14.70 at the end of year 2.
– Now how much would you be willing to pay?
33.13$
)20.1(
)70.1410.2(
20.1
2
P
20
Calculator: CF0 = 0; C01 = 2; F01 = 1; C02 = 16.80; F02 = 1; NPV; I =
20; CPT NPV = 13.33
We can use uneven cash flow keys.
Slide 5
7-5
Three Period Example
• What if you decide to hold the stock for three
years?
– In addition to the dividends at the end of years 1 and 2,
you expect to receive a dividend of $2.205 at the end of
year 3 and the stock price is expected to be $15.435.
– Now how much would you be willing to pay?
33.13$
)20.1(
)435.15205.2(
)20.1(
10.2
20.1
2
P
320
Calcultator: CF0 = 0; C01 = 2; F01 = 1; C02 = 2.10; F02 = 1; C03 = 17.64;
F03 = 1; NPV; I = 20; CPT NPV = 13.33
Slide 6
7-6
Devel.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
2. 6-2
Learning Objectives
Separate yourself from the commoners by having a good
Understanding of these security valuation methods:
1. The basic dividend discount model.
2. The two-stage dividend growth model.
3. The residual income model.
4. Price ratio analysis.
3. 6-3
Common Stock Valuation
• Our goal in this chapter is to examine the methods
commonly used by financial analysts to assess the
economic value of common stocks.
• These methods are grouped into three categories:
– Dividend discount models
– Residual Income models
– Price ratio models
4. 6-4
Security Analysis: Be Careful Out There
• Fundamental analysis is a term for studying a
company’s accounting statements and other financial and
economic information to estimate the economic value of
a company’s stock.
• The basic idea is to identify “undervalued” stocks to buy
and “overvalued” stocks to sell.
• In practice however, such stocks may in fact be correctly
priced for reasons not immediately apparent to the
analyst.
5. 6-5
The Dividend Discount Model
• The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a method to estimate the
value of a share of stock by discounting all expected future dividend
payments. The basic DDM equation is:
• In the DDM equation:
– P0 = the present value of all future dividends
– Dt = the dividend to be paid t years from now
– k = the appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate
T
T
3
3
2
2
1
0
k
1
D
k
1
D
k
1
D
k
1
D
P
6. 6-6
Example: The Dividend Discount Model
• Suppose that a stock will pay three annual dividends of
$200 per year, and the appropriate risk-adjusted discount
rate, k, is 8%.
• In this case, what is the value of the stock today?
$515.42
0.08
1
$200
0.08
1
$200
0.08
1
$200
P
k
1
D
k
1
D
k
1
D
P
3
2
0
3
3
2
2
1
0
7. 6-7
The Dividend Discount Model:
the Constant Growth Rate Model
• Assume that the dividends will grow at a constant growth rate g. The
dividend next period (t + 1) is:
• For constant dividend growth for “T” years, the DDM formula
becomes:
g
k
if
D
T
P
g
k
if
k
1
g
1
1
g
k
g)
(1
D
P
0
0
T
1
0
g)
(1
g)
(1
D
g)
(1
D
D
So,
g
1
D
D
0
1
2
t
1
t
8. 6-8
Example: The Constant Growth Rate Model
• Suppose the current dividend is $10, the dividend growth rate is
10%, there will be 20 yearly dividends, and the appropriate discount
rate is 8%.
• What is the value of the stock, based on the constant growth rate
model?
$243.86
1.08
1.10
1
.10
.08
1.10
$10
P
k
1
g
1
1
g
k
g)
(1
D
P
20
0
T
0
0
9. 6-9
The Dividend Discount Model:
the Constant Perpetual Growth Model.
• Assuming that the dividends will grow forever at a
constant growth rate g.
• For constant perpetual dividend growth, the DDM formula
becomes:
k)
g
:
(Important
g
k
D
g
k
g
1
D
P 1
0
0
10. 6-10
Example: Constant Perpetual Growth Model
• Think about the electric utility industry.
• In 2007, the dividend paid by the utility company, DTE Energy Co.
(DTE), was $2.12.
• Using D0 =$2.12, k = 6.7%, and g = 2%, calculate an estimated value
for DTE.
Note: the actual mid-2007 stock price of DTE was $47.81.
What are the possible explanations for the difference?
$46.01
.02
.067
1.02
$2.12
P0
11. 6-11
The Dividend Discount Model:
Estimating the Growth Rate
• The growth rate in dividends (g) can be estimated in a
number of ways:
– Using the company’s historical average growth rate.
– Using an industry median or average growth rate.
– Using the sustainable growth rate.
12. 6-12
The Historical Average Growth Rate
• Suppose the Broadway Joe Company paid the following dividends:
– 2002: $1.50 2005: $1.80
– 2003: $1.70 2006: $2.00
– 2004: $1.75 2007: $2.20
• The spreadsheet below shows how to estimate historical average
growth rates, using arithmetic and geometric averages.
Year: Dividend: Pct. Chg:
2007 $2.20 10.00%
2006 $2.00 11.11%
2005 $1.80 2.86% Grown at
2004 $1.75 2.94% Year: 7.96%:
2003 $1.70 13.33% 2002 $1.50
2002 $1.50 2003 $1.62
2004 $1.75
8.05% 2005 $1.89
2006 $2.04
7.96% 2007 $2.20
Arithmetic Average:
Geometric Average:
13. 6-13
The Sustainable Growth Rate
• Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Equity
• Payout Ratio = Proportion of earnings paid out as dividends
• Retention Ratio = Proportion of earnings retained for investment
Ratio)
Payout
-
(1
ROE
Ratio
Retention
ROE
Rate
Growth
e
Sustainabl
14. 6-14
Example: Calculating and Using the
Sustainable Growth Rate
• In 2007, American Electric Power (AEP) had an ROE of 10.17%,
projected earnings per share of $2.25, and a per-share dividend of
$1.56. What was AEP’s:
– Retention rate?
– Sustainable growth rate?
• Payout ratio = $1.56 / $2.25 = .693
• So, retention ratio = 1 – .693 = .307 or 30.7%
• Therefore, AEP’s sustainable growth rate = .1017 .307 = .03122, or
3.122%
15. 6-15
Example: Calculating and Using the
Sustainable Growth Rate, Cont.
• What is the value of AEP stock, using the perpetual growth model,
and a discount rate of 6.7%?
• The actual mid-2007 stock price of AEP was $45.41.
• In this case, using the sustainable growth rate to value the stock
gives a reasonably accurate estimate.
• What can we say about g and k in this example?
$44.96
.03122
.067
1.03122
$1.56
P
0
16. 6-16
The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model
• The two-stage dividend growth model assumes that a
firm will initially grow at a rate g1 for T years, and
thereafter grow at a rate g2 < k during a perpetual second
stage of growth.
• The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model formula is:
2
2
0
T
1
T
1
1
1
0
g
k
)
g
(1
D
k
1
g
1
k
1
g
1
1
g
k
)
g
(1
D
P
0
17. 6-17
Using the Two-Stage
Dividend Growth Model, I.
• Although the formula looks complicated, think of it as two
parts:
– Part 1 is the present value of the first T dividends (it is the same
formula we used for the constant growth model).
– Part 2 is the present value of all subsequent dividends.
• So, suppose MissMolly.com has a current dividend of
D0 = $5, which is expected to shrink at the rate, g1 = 10%
for 5 years, but grow at the rate, g2 = 4% forever.
• With a discount rate of k = 10%, what is the present value
of the stock?
18. 6-18
Using the Two-Stage
Dividend Growth Model, II.
• The total value of $46.03 is the sum of a $14.25 present value of the
first five dividends, plus a $31.78 present value of all subsequent
dividends.
$46.03.
$31.78
$14.25
0.04
0.10
0.04)
$5.00(1
0.10
1
0.90
0.10
1
0.90
1
0.10)
(
0.10
)
$5.00(0.90
P
g
k
)
g
(1
D
k
1
g
1
k
1
g
1
1
g
k
)
g
(1
D
P
5
5
2
2
0
T
1
T
1
1
1
0
0
0
19. 6-19
Example: Using the DDM to Value a Firm
Experiencing “Supernormal” Growth, I.
• Chain Reaction, Inc., has been growing at a phenomenal rate of 30%
per year.
• You believe that this rate will last for only three more years.
• Then, you think the rate will drop to 10% per year.
• Total dividends just paid were $5 million.
• The required rate of return is 20%.
• What is the total value of Chain Reaction, Inc.?
20. 6-20
Example: Using the DDM to Value a Firm
Experiencing “Supernormal” Growth, II.
• First, calculate the total dividends over the “supernormal” growth
period:
• Using the long run growth rate, g, the value of all the shares at Time
3 can be calculated as:
P3 = [D3 x (1 + g)] / (k – g)
P3 = [$10.985 x 1.10] / (0.20 – 0.10) = $120.835
Year Total Dividend: (in $millions)
1 $5.00 x 1.30 = $6.50
2 $6.50 x 1.30 = $8.45
3 $8.45 x 1.30 = $10.985
21. 6-21
Example: Using the DDM to Value a Firm
Experiencing “Supernormal” Growth, III.
• Therefore, to determine the present value of the firm today, we need
the present value of $120.835 and the present value of the dividends
paid in the first 3 years:
million.
$87.58
$69.93
$6.36
$5.87
$5.42
0.20
1
$120.835
0.20
1
$10.985
0.20
1
$8.45
0.20
1
$6.50
P
k
1
P
k
1
D
k
1
D
k
1
D
P
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
0
0
22. 6-22
Discount Rates for
Dividend Discount Models
• The discount rate for a stock can be estimated using the capital
asset pricing model (CAPM ).
• We will discuss the CAPM in a later chapter.
• However, we can estimate the discount rate for a stock using this
formula:
Discount rate = time value of money + risk premium
= U.S. T-bill Rate + (Stock Beta x Stock Market Risk Premium)
T-bill Rate: return on 90-day U.S. T-bills
Stock Beta: risk relative to an average stock
Stock Market Risk Premium: risk premium for an average stock
23. 6-23
Observations on Dividend
Discount Models, I.
Constant Perpetual Growth Model:
• Simple to compute
• Not usable for firms that do not pay dividends
• Not usable when g > k
• Is sensitive to the choice of g and k
• k and g may be difficult to estimate accurately.
• Constant perpetual growth is often an unrealistic assumption.
24. 6-24
Observations on Dividend
Discount Models, II.
Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model:
• More realistic in that it accounts for two stages of growth
• Usable when g > k in the first stage
• Not usable for firms that do not pay dividends
• Is sensitive to the choice of g and k
• k and g may be difficult to estimate accurately.
25. 6-25
Residual Income Model (RIM), I.
• We have valued only companies that pay dividends.
– But, there are many companies that do not pay dividends.
– What about them?
– It turns out that there is an elegant way to value these
companies, too.
• The model is called the Residual Income Model (RIM).
• Major Assumption (known as the Clean Surplus Relationship, or
CSR): The change in book value per share is equal to earnings per
share minus dividends.
26. 6-26
Residual Income Model (RIM), II.
• Inputs needed:
– Earnings per share at time 0, EPS0
– Book value per share at time 0, B0
– Earnings growth rate, g
– Discount rate, k
• There are two equivalent formulas for the Residual Income Model:
g
k
g
B
EPS
P
or
g
k
k
B
g)
(1
EPS
B
P
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
BTW, it turns out that the
RIM is mathematically the
same as the constant
perpetual growth model.
27. 6-27
Using the Residual Income Model.
• Superior Offshore International, Inc. (DEEP)
• It is July 1, 2007—shares are selling in the market for $10.94.
• Using the RIM:
– EPS0 = $1.20
– DIV = 0
– B0 = $5.886
– g = 0.09
– k = .13
• What can we say
about the market
price of DEEP? $19.46.
.04
$.7652
$1.308
$5.886
P
.09
.13
.13
$5.886
.09)
(1
$1.20
$5.886
P
g
k
k
B
g)
(1
EPS
B
P
0
0
0
0
0
0
28. 6-28
DEEP Growth
• Using the information from the previous slide, what growth rate
results in a DEEP price of $10.94?
3.55%.
or
.0355
g
6.254g
.2222
.4348
1.20g
5.054g
$.6570
.7652
1.20g
1.20
g)
(.13
$5.054
g
.13
.13
$5.886
g)
(1
$1.20
$5.886
$10.94
g
k
k
B
g)
(1
EPS
B
P 0
0
0
0
29. 6-29
Price Ratio Analysis, I.
• Price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio)
– Current stock price divided by annual earnings per share (EPS)
• Earnings yield
– Inverse of the P/E ratio: earnings divided by price (E/P)
• High-P/E stocks are often referred to as growth stocks,
while low-P/E stocks are often referred to as value
stocks.
30. 6-30
Price Ratio Analysis, II.
• Price-cash flow ratio (P/CF ratio)
– Current stock price divided by current cash flow per share
– In this context, cash flow is usually taken to be net income plus
depreciation.
• Most analysts agree that in examining a company’s
financial performance, cash flow can be more informative
than net income.
• Earnings and cash flows that are far from each other may
be a signal of poor quality earnings.
31. 6-31
Price Ratio Analysis, III.
• Price-sales ratio (P/S ratio)
– Current stock price divided by annual sales per share
– A high P/S ratio suggests high sales growth, while a low P/S ratio
suggests sluggish sales growth.
• Price-book ratio (P/B ratio)
– Market value of a company’s common stock divided by its book
(accounting) value of equity
– A ratio bigger than 1.0 indicates that the firm is creating value for
its stockholders.
35. 6-35
An Analysis of the
McGraw-Hill Company
The next few slides contain a financial
analysis of the McGraw-Hill Company, using
data from the Value Line Investment Survey.
38. 6-38
The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis, III.
• Based on the CAPM, k = 3.1% + (.80 9%) = 10.3%
• Retention ratio = 1 – $.66/$2.65 = .751
• Sustainable g = .751 23% = 17.27%
• Because g > k, the constant growth rate model cannot be
used. (We would get a value of -$11.10 per share)
39. 6-39
The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis
(Using the Residual Income Model, I)
• Let’s assume that “today” is January 1, 2008, g = 7.5%, and k = 12.6%.
• Using the Value Line Investment Survey (VL), we can fill in column two
(VL) of the table below.
• We use column one and our growth assumption for column three (CSR) of
the table below.
End of 2007 2008 (VL) 2008 (CSR)
Beginning BV per share NA $6.50 $6.50
EPS $3.05 $3.45 $3.2788
DIV $.82 $.82 $2.7913
Ending BV per share $6.50 $9.25 $6.9875
1.075
3.05 1.075
6.50
6.50)
-
(6.9875
-
3.2788
Plug"
"
40. 6-40
The McGraw-Hill Company Analysis
(Using the Residual Income Model, II)
• Using the CSR assumption:
• Using Value Line numbers for
EPS1=$3.45, B1=$9.25
B0=$6.50; and using the actual
change in book value instead of an
estimate of the new book value,
(i.e., B1-B0 is = B0 x k)
$54.73.
P
.075
.126
.126
$6.50
.075)
(1
$3.05
$6.50
P
g
k
k
B
g)
(1
EPS
B
P
0
0
0
0
0
0
$20.23
P
.075
.126
6.50)
-
($9.25
$3.45
$6.50
P
g
k
k
B
g)
(1
EPS
B
P
0
0
0
0
0
0
Stock price at the time = $57.27.
What can we say?
42. 6-42
Useful Internet Sites
• www.nyssa.org (the New York Society of Security Analysts)
• www.aaii.com (the American Association of Individual
Investors)
• www.eva.com (Economic Value Added)
• www.valueline.com (the home of the Value Line Investment
Survey)
• Websites for some companies analyzed in this chapter:
• www.aep.com
• www.americanexpress.com
• www.pepsico.com
• www.intel.com
• www.corporate.disney.go.com
• www.mcgraw-hill.com
43. 6-43
Chapter Review, I.
• Security Analysis: Be Careful Out There
• The Dividend Discount Model
– Constant Dividend Growth Rate Model
– Constant Perpetual Growth
– Applications of the Constant Perpetual Growth Model
– The Sustainable Growth Rate
44. 6-44
Chapter Review, II.
• The Two-Stage Dividend Growth Model
– Discount Rates for Dividend Discount Models
– Observations on Dividend Discount Models
• Residual Income Model (RIM)
• Price Ratio Analysis
– Price-Earnings Ratios
– Price-Cash Flow Ratios
– Price-Sales Ratios
– Price-Book Ratios
– Applications of Price Ratio Analysis
• An Analysis of the McGraw-Hill Company