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Features of Bonds
Features of Common Stock
Intrinsic Value and Stock Price
Determining Common Stock Values
Discounted Dividend Model
Corporate Valuation Model
Other Approaches
9-1
Facts About Bonds
• Debt Financing.
• Fixed Return (interest Rate).
• Definite Maturity.
Valuation of Bonds
• Bonds issued at face value, discount or premium.
• Relation between market rate and nominal interest
determines the issuance price.
• Market of price changes with market interest rate.
 Represents ownership
 Ownership implies control
 Stockholders elect directors
 Directors elect management
 Management’s goal: Maximize the stock
price
9-4
 Outside investors, corporate insiders, and
analysts use a variety of approaches to
estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0).
 In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s
price equals its intrinsic value.
◦ Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help
determine which stocks are attractive to buy
and/or sell.
◦ Stocks with a price below (above) its intrinsic
value are undervalued (overvalued).
9-5
 Discounted dividend model
 Corporate valuation model
 P/E multiple approach
 EVA approach
9-6
 Value of a stock is the present value of
the future dividends expected to be
generated by the stock.
9-7











)
r
(1
D
...
)
r
(1
D
)
r
(1
D
)
r
(1
D
P̂
s
3
s
3
2
s
2
1
s
1
0
g
r
D
g
r
g)
(1
D
P̂
s
1
s
0
0





9-8
• A stock whose dividends are expected to
grow forever at a constant rate, g.
D1 = D0(1 + g)1
D2 = D0(1 + g)2
Dt = D0(1 + g)t
• If g is constant, the discounted dividend
formula converges to:
 If g > rs, the constant growth formula
leads to a negative stock price, which
does not make sense.
 The constant growth model can only be
used if:
◦ rs > g.
◦ g is expected to be constant forever.
9-9
 If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what is
the required rate of return on the firm’s
stock?
rs = rRF + (rM – rRF)b
= 7% + (12% – 7%)1.2
= 13% Use this in the calculations of
the price using the Dividend Discount
Model next.
9-
10
9-
11
1.8761
1.7599
1.6509
rs = 13%
g = 6%
0 1
2.247
2
2.382
3
2.12
D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%.
Using the constant growth model:
$30.29
0.07
$2.12
0.06
0.13
$2.12
g
r
D
P̂
s
1
0






9-
12
• D1 will have been paid out already. So,
expected P1 is the present value (as of Year
1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.
• Could also find expected P1 as:
$32.10
0.06
0.13
$2.247
g
r
D
P̂
s
2
1





9-
13
$32.10
(1.06)
P
P̂ 0
1 

 Dividend yield
= D1/P0 = $2.12/$30.29 = 7.0%
 Capital gains yield
= (P1 – P0)/P0
= ($32.10 – $30.29)/$30.29 = 6.0%
 Total return (rs)
= Dividend yield + Capital gains yield
= 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0%
9-
14
The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.
$15.38
0.13
$2.00
r
PMT
P̂0 


9-
15
2.00 2.00
2.00
0 1 2 3
rs = 13%
 Can no longer use just the constant growth
model to find stock value.
 However, the growth does become constant
after 3 years.
9-
16
9-
17
rs = 13%
g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6%
2.301
2.647
3.045
46.114
54.107 =
0 1 2 3 4
2.600 3.380 4.394 4.65
8
P̂0
$66.54
06
.
0
0.13
4.658
P̂3 


D0 = $2.00.
 Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.60/$54.11 = 4.81%
 Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% – 4.81% = 8.19%
 During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and
capital gains yield are not constant, and capital
gains yield ≠ g.
 After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and
dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield =
6%.
9-
18
9-
19
rs = 13%
g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6%
1.77
1.57
1.39
20.99
25.72 =
0 1 2 3 4
2.00 2.00
2.00
2.12
P̂0
$30.29
06
.
0
0.13
2.12
P̂3 


D0 = $2.00.
 Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.00/$25.72 = 7.78%
 Capital gains yield (first year)
= 13.00% – 7.78% = 5.22%
 After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and
dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield =
6%.
9-
20
• Yes. Even though the dividends are declining,
the stock is still producing cash flows and
therefore has positive value.
$9.89
0.19
$1.88
(-0.06)
0.13
(0.94)
$2.00
g
r
)
g
(1
D
g
r
D
P̂
s
0
s
1
0









9-
21
 Capital gains yield
= g = -6.00%
 Dividend yield
= 13.00% – (-6.00%) = 19.00%
 Since the stock is experiencing constant
growth, dividend yield and capital gains
yield are constant. Dividend yield is
sufficiently large (19%) to offset negative
capital gains.
9-
22
 Also called the free cash flow method.
Suggests the value of the entire firm
equals the present value of the firm’s free
cash flows.
 Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s
after-tax operating income less the net
capital investment.
9-
23





 







 

 NOWC
es
expenditur
Capital
on
amortizati
and
Depr.
T)
EBIT(1
FCF
 Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by
finding the PV of the firm’s future FCFs.
 Subtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred
stock to get MV of common stock.
 Divide MV of common stock by the
number of shares outstanding to get
intrinsic stock price (value).
9-
24
 Often preferred to the discounted
dividend model, especially when
considering number of firms that don’t
pay dividends or when dividends are hard
to forecast.
 Similar to discounted dividend model,
assumes at some point free cash flow will
grow at a constant rate.
 Horizon value (HVN) represents value of
firm at the point that growth becomes
constant.
9-
25
3
HV
06
.
0
0.10
21.20
530 


Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% and WACC =
10%
9-
26
r = 10%
g =
6%
-4.545
8.264
15.026
398.197
416.942
0 1 2 3 4
-5 21.2
0
10 20
9-
27
The firm has $40 million total in debt
and preferred stock and has 10 million
shares of common stock.
million
94
.
376
$
40
$
94
.
416
$
preferred
and
debt
of
MV
firm
of
MV
equity
of
MV





$37.69
/10
94
.
376
$
shares
of
quity/#
e
of
MV
share
per
Value



 Analysts often use the following multiples
to value stocks.
◦ P/E
◦ P/CF
◦ P/Sales
 EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms,
estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply
this by expected earnings to back out an
estimate of the stock price.
9-
28
If the industry P/E ratio is 10 times and the
expected or current earning per share of the
company is $2.0 then the fair price of the
company’s stock is supposed to be
P = 10 * 2 = $20
If Industry’s P/CF = 8 times and the company’s CF
per share is $2.5 then the price of the company is
supposed to be
P = $8 * 2.5 = $20
If industry P/S= 5 times and the company’s sales
per share is $4.0 the the price of the company’s
stock should be
P = 4 * 5 = $20.
9-
29

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Financial Analysis 6.pptx

  • 1. Features of Bonds Features of Common Stock Intrinsic Value and Stock Price Determining Common Stock Values Discounted Dividend Model Corporate Valuation Model Other Approaches 9-1
  • 2. Facts About Bonds • Debt Financing. • Fixed Return (interest Rate). • Definite Maturity.
  • 3. Valuation of Bonds • Bonds issued at face value, discount or premium. • Relation between market rate and nominal interest determines the issuance price. • Market of price changes with market interest rate.
  • 4.  Represents ownership  Ownership implies control  Stockholders elect directors  Directors elect management  Management’s goal: Maximize the stock price 9-4
  • 5.  Outside investors, corporate insiders, and analysts use a variety of approaches to estimate a stock’s intrinsic value (P0).  In equilibrium we assume that a stock’s price equals its intrinsic value. ◦ Outsiders estimate intrinsic value to help determine which stocks are attractive to buy and/or sell. ◦ Stocks with a price below (above) its intrinsic value are undervalued (overvalued). 9-5
  • 6.  Discounted dividend model  Corporate valuation model  P/E multiple approach  EVA approach 9-6
  • 7.  Value of a stock is the present value of the future dividends expected to be generated by the stock. 9-7            ) r (1 D ... ) r (1 D ) r (1 D ) r (1 D P̂ s 3 s 3 2 s 2 1 s 1 0
  • 8. g r D g r g) (1 D P̂ s 1 s 0 0      9-8 • A stock whose dividends are expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g. D1 = D0(1 + g)1 D2 = D0(1 + g)2 Dt = D0(1 + g)t • If g is constant, the discounted dividend formula converges to:
  • 9.  If g > rs, the constant growth formula leads to a negative stock price, which does not make sense.  The constant growth model can only be used if: ◦ rs > g. ◦ g is expected to be constant forever. 9-9
  • 10.  If rRF = 7%, rM = 12%, and b = 1.2, what is the required rate of return on the firm’s stock? rs = rRF + (rM – rRF)b = 7% + (12% – 7%)1.2 = 13% Use this in the calculations of the price using the Dividend Discount Model next. 9- 10
  • 11. 9- 11 1.8761 1.7599 1.6509 rs = 13% g = 6% 0 1 2.247 2 2.382 3 2.12 D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%.
  • 12. Using the constant growth model: $30.29 0.07 $2.12 0.06 0.13 $2.12 g r D P̂ s 1 0       9- 12
  • 13. • D1 will have been paid out already. So, expected P1 is the present value (as of Year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc. • Could also find expected P1 as: $32.10 0.06 0.13 $2.247 g r D P̂ s 2 1      9- 13 $32.10 (1.06) P P̂ 0 1  
  • 14.  Dividend yield = D1/P0 = $2.12/$30.29 = 7.0%  Capital gains yield = (P1 – P0)/P0 = ($32.10 – $30.29)/$30.29 = 6.0%  Total return (rs) = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield = 7.0% + 6.0% = 13.0% 9- 14
  • 15. The dividend stream would be a perpetuity. $15.38 0.13 $2.00 r PMT P̂0    9- 15 2.00 2.00 2.00 0 1 2 3 rs = 13%
  • 16.  Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value.  However, the growth does become constant after 3 years. 9- 16
  • 17. 9- 17 rs = 13% g = 30% g = 30% g = 30% g = 6% 2.301 2.647 3.045 46.114 54.107 = 0 1 2 3 4 2.600 3.380 4.394 4.65 8 P̂0 $66.54 06 . 0 0.13 4.658 P̂3    D0 = $2.00.
  • 18.  Dividend yield (first year) = $2.60/$54.11 = 4.81%  Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% – 4.81% = 8.19%  During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield ≠ g.  After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%. 9- 18
  • 19. 9- 19 rs = 13% g = 0% g = 0% g = 0% g = 6% 1.77 1.57 1.39 20.99 25.72 = 0 1 2 3 4 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.12 P̂0 $30.29 06 . 0 0.13 2.12 P̂3    D0 = $2.00.
  • 20.  Dividend yield (first year) = $2.00/$25.72 = 7.78%  Capital gains yield (first year) = 13.00% – 7.78% = 5.22%  After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%. 9- 20
  • 21. • Yes. Even though the dividends are declining, the stock is still producing cash flows and therefore has positive value. $9.89 0.19 $1.88 (-0.06) 0.13 (0.94) $2.00 g r ) g (1 D g r D P̂ s 0 s 1 0          9- 21
  • 22.  Capital gains yield = g = -6.00%  Dividend yield = 13.00% – (-6.00%) = 19.00%  Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset negative capital gains. 9- 22
  • 23.  Also called the free cash flow method. Suggests the value of the entire firm equals the present value of the firm’s free cash flows.  Remember, free cash flow is the firm’s after-tax operating income less the net capital investment. 9- 23                   NOWC es expenditur Capital on amortizati and Depr. T) EBIT(1 FCF
  • 24.  Find the market value (MV) of the firm, by finding the PV of the firm’s future FCFs.  Subtract MV of firm’s debt and preferred stock to get MV of common stock.  Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value). 9- 24
  • 25.  Often preferred to the discounted dividend model, especially when considering number of firms that don’t pay dividends or when dividends are hard to forecast.  Similar to discounted dividend model, assumes at some point free cash flow will grow at a constant rate.  Horizon value (HVN) represents value of firm at the point that growth becomes constant. 9- 25
  • 26. 3 HV 06 . 0 0.10 21.20 530    Given: Long-Run gFCF = 6% and WACC = 10% 9- 26 r = 10% g = 6% -4.545 8.264 15.026 398.197 416.942 0 1 2 3 4 -5 21.2 0 10 20
  • 27. 9- 27 The firm has $40 million total in debt and preferred stock and has 10 million shares of common stock. million 94 . 376 $ 40 $ 94 . 416 $ preferred and debt of MV firm of MV equity of MV      $37.69 /10 94 . 376 $ shares of quity/# e of MV share per Value   
  • 28.  Analysts often use the following multiples to value stocks. ◦ P/E ◦ P/CF ◦ P/Sales  EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price. 9- 28
  • 29. If the industry P/E ratio is 10 times and the expected or current earning per share of the company is $2.0 then the fair price of the company’s stock is supposed to be P = 10 * 2 = $20 If Industry’s P/CF = 8 times and the company’s CF per share is $2.5 then the price of the company is supposed to be P = $8 * 2.5 = $20 If industry P/S= 5 times and the company’s sales per share is $4.0 the the price of the company’s stock should be P = 4 * 5 = $20. 9- 29