The document provides an analysis of copper and soy oil commodity prices. For copper, it notes that manufacturing PMIs have increased globally, but supply disruptions have affected physical supply and demand, driving up prices. Technically, copper has risen 15% in recent weeks and is expected to continue rising in the short and long term. For soy oil, the document discusses factors impacting supply and demand, including monsoon rains in India. Technically, soy oil has fallen 10% in the past month and is expected to continue declining in the short term.

1. Commodity Insight
4th
July, 2013
• Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 1
Copper
Fundamentally, more than expected PMI data all
over the globe is sending signs of improvement in
Manufacturing sector but in contrast interruptions
to output in recent months are affecting physical
supply of copper which affecting demand hence
surge in price. The U.S. Institute for Supply
Management said its manufacturing purchasing
managers’ index rose to 50.9 in June, meanwhile
in the euro zone, data showed that Spain’s
manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose
to 50.0 in June, the highest level in two years, up
from 48.1 in May. China is the world’s largest
copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of
world consumption last year. A Government
report released earlier in the day showed that
China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers'
index inched down to 53.9 in June from 54.3 in
May. Improved US private sector employment
may reinforce to taper of bond purchase program
in the coming months.
Technically, Copper has been moving up from 366 to 426 i.e. upside move of approx 15% in last few
weeks. Copper has major support at 390 levels and on higher side has resistance at 432 levels. Well
copper has given a good correction in past couple of months but now it’s time where prices need to
consolidate and give some upside move from present levels. So for next 10 to 15 days, dips in prices till
Rs.415 or Rs.410 should be used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs.430 and Rs.448.
In Long term, we expect Copper prices to move up. Copper on higher side can touch levels of Rs.470 in
next two months. If copper manages to break and give close above 470 levels than there is a possibility
that prices can move up till 510 levels. So for the time horizon of two months, dips in prices till 410 or 400
levels should be used as buying opportunity for the target of Rs.470. We maintain our bullish view in
Copper for long term.
Fundamentally, Soy Oil futures is mostly trading in range of Rs.60 per 10 Kg from last seven weeks that is
between 730 to 670 per 10 Kg. Oil price is well supported by rise in demand during the upcoming Ramadan
festival as well as weak Rupee. Whereas on other hand Soybean eased as good rainfall in central and southern
India at the start of the monsoon season raised hopes of higher oilseeds production. Timely progress of the
monsoon over the Soybean growing areas of central India will boost production prospects for the oilseed crop
by giving sufficient time to mature. India grows soybean in summer and harvests the oilseed crop after the
monsoon season ends in September. Until then, the country has to rely on Soy Oil imports from Latin America
to meet domestic demand. India is the world's biggest importer of cooking oils and meets over half its demand
of 17 million tonnes via imports.
Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
04.07.13 03.07.13
Gold 1248.50 $ 1252.60 $ - 04.10 $
Silver 19.54 $ 19.69 $ - 00.15 $
Crude 100.75 $ 101.29 $ - 00.54 $
USDINR 60.61 60.38 0.23
Turnover of 03.07.13
Exchange Turnover (Cr.)
MCX 39787
NCDEX 4365
Soy Oil

2. Commodity Insight
4th
July, 2013
• Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 2
A weak rupee makes edible oil imports expensive but raises the returns for oil meal exporters. The local
currency was trading near its record low level. The monsoon has covered Maharashtra and almost all of
Madhya Pradesh, the weather department said last week. The Madhya Pradesh is country's top soybean
producer, followed by Maharashtra. Farmers are expected to increase soybean planting in 2013/14,
encouraged by a rally in prices and the need to cultivate a sturdy crop to prepare for the possibility of an
unhelpful monsoon season.
Technically, Soy Oil has given an downside move
of approx 10% in last one month. On downside it
has major support at 670 levels and on higher
side has resistance at 730 levels. So for short
term till the time prices doesn’t break and give
close above 730 levels, rise in prices till Rs.710 or
Rs.720 should be used as selling opportunity for
the target of Rs.670.
Soy Oil is expected to move down for the time
horizon of two months. On lower side, the
commodity has major support at 670 levels, a
breakout and close below these levels will take
prices to 630 and 610 levels. So any pullback rally
or upward move in prices till Rs.720 should be
used as selling opportunity for the target of
Rs.630. We maintain our bearish view in Soy Oil
for next few months.
Copper Chart

3. Commodity Insight
4th
July, 2013
• Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 3
Copper Trading Range
Copper today’s trading levels are 416-426
Intraday Support @ 416-419 and Resistance @ 424-426
Intraday Trend Up, Buy on dips....…
Copper Buy @ 419 SL 416 TGT 424….
Open Calls
Date
Type
of
Call
Commodity Initiated Price
Stop
Loss
Target
Closing
Price
Comments
Spread Calls
Date
Type
of Call
Commodity
Initiated
Price
Stop
Loss
Spread
Target
Spread
Comments
Report by: -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodities & Currencies Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Yogesh Khatri (Senior Research Analyst) yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame (Research Associate) kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Madhav Bana (Research Associate) madhav.bana@destimoney.com

4. Commodity Insight
4th
July, 2013
• Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 4
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