View given in Silver and Jeera......

1. Commodity Insight
17th September, 2013
Commodity
Exchange
Turnover (Cr.)
MCX
24317
NCDEX
3473
Rate
Rate
Gold
Silver
Crude
USDINR
Turnover of 16.09.13
17.09.13
1311.00 $
21.83 $
105.31 $
63.50
16.09.13
1317.80 $
22.00 $
106.23 $
63.12
Up / Down
- 6.80 $
- 00.17 $
- 00.92 $
0.38
Silver
Fundamentally, Silver price is volatile from past
one month on back of geopolitical tension as well
as weak Rupee against US Dollar. In MCX price
surges to almost 60,000 per kg from low of 40,000
and currently hovering around 50,000 per kg
mark. Historically these months are known for
being a dull time for the resource markets, but this
past August, silver beat the odds and recorded an
impressive surge of nearly 20 percent in
international market, outperforming everything
else. One reason for the white metal’s success is
that Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFS) appear
to be providing some support. Gold ETF holdings
have declined by a quarter, or 680 metric tons
(MT), since the start of the year, silver ETF
holdings have risen 6 percent. In fact, they made it
to a fresh record high in August. Other reason is
after importing just 1,900 MT of Silver in 2012,
India brought in 2,400 MT of the precious metal in
just first five months of this year. That is significant
not only given the fact that India’s record for silver
imports, recorded in 2008, is 5,048 MT, but also
because India’s claim to fame has long been its
status as the world’s largest gold consumer.
However, taxes and import restrictions have been
making it difficult for investors to get their hands
on the yellow metal, and as a result, silver is
continuing to benefit.
Technically, Silver is moving down from past few weeks, we have seen prices moving down from high of
Rs.59942 to recent low of Rs.48866 i.e. a return of approx 20% in last one month. Well as the downside was
sharp so there can be some pullback rally, in which prices can move up till 52000 levels, but seeing at the trend
it doesn’t look like that prices would be able to sustain at these levels. So for short term rise in prices till 51000
or 52000 should be used as selling opportunity for the target of Rs.46500 and Rs.45000.
In long term Silver is expected to touch levels of 55000 and 62000. In short term if we see prices near
Rs.45000, then it will be a very good buy for the targets of Rs 55000 and if the prices are able to break and
give close above 55000 then the target of Rs.62000 per Kg can be achieved in next two to three months
i.e. a return of approx 30%. We maintain our bullish view in Silver for long term.
Jeera
Fundamentally, Indian Jeera or Cumin seed, are under selling pressure in NCDEX from last two weeks as price
has fallen from high of Rs.14380 per quintal to recent low of Rs.13120. Demand remains poor in the spot,
amidst thin trading activities due to the ongoing rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Even though export queries are
there, yet till the skies clear up, the trading activities may not pick up strongly.
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2. Commodity Insight
17th September, 2013
Gujarat, the top Jeera producer in India, has received above average rainfall so far this monsoon. Jeera is a
winter crop sown from October. Farmers depend on rains to moisten the land for sowing. India may become a
leading jeera exporter due to persisting political tensions in Syria and Turkey. Supply concerns from these two
major exporting countries still exist. India is the biggest cumin seed producer in the world, followed by Syria
and Turkey. Also, cumin crop failure in Iran as a result of bad weather is expected to support Indian cumin seed
market in the long term. India's exports increased by 76% to 79,900 tons in 2012-13, when compared to 45,500
tons in the previous year, according to the data released by the Spices Board of India.
Technically, Jeera prices are moving down from
past few weeks, we have seen that prices of Jeera
has given an downside move of approx Rs.1500
i.e. a return of approx 10% in one month. Well,
Jeera has major support at 12700 levels, if prices
are able to break and give close below these levels
than only further sell off can be seen till 11300
levels.
So for next one month, dips in prices till Rs.13000
or Rs.12700 should be used as buying opportunity
for the target of Rs.14100. If prices are able to
break the levels of Rs.14100 on closing basis then
further upside rally can be seen in commodity till
Rs.14800 in next one to two months. We maintain
our bullish view in Jeera for next few months.
Silver Chart
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3. Commodity Insight
17th September, 2013
Silver Trading Range
Silver today’s trading range 49200-50400
Intraday Support @ 49200 - 49500 and Resistance @ 49900 - 50400
Intraday Trend Down, Sell on rise...…
Sell Silver @ 49900 SL 50400 TGT 49200….
Open Calls
Type
of
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Commodity
Initiated Price
Stop
Loss
Closing
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Target
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Spread Calls
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Report by: Sumeet Bagadia
(Head - Commodities & Currencies Research)
sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Yogesh Khatri
(Senior Research Analyst)
yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame
(Research Associate)
kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Madhav Bana
(Research Associate)
madhav.bana@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
17th September, 2013
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