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Epic research daily agri report 22 dec 2014
1. DAILYAGRI COMMODITY REPORT
22 December 2014
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
DHANIYA
JAN 12850 12853 12371 12371 -4.00 14650
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
12199
SUPP. 2
12028
PIVOT
12543
Dhaniya short term
trend is down, further
more downside is
expected in comimg
days.
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
12714
RES. 2
13058
CASTORSEED
JAN 4774 4834 4715 4791 +0.42 113790
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4726
SUPP. 2
4661
PIVOT
4780
Castorseed short term
trend is up, Prices
expected to go up in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4845
RES. 2
4899
TURMERIC
APR 8156 8160 7924 8026 -0.52 12335
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7913
SUPP. 2
7801
PIVOT
8037
Turmeric short term
trend is up and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8149
RES. 2
8273
GUARGUM
JAN 11900 11900 11610 11770 -1.75 8250
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
11627
SUPP. 2
11483
PIVOT
11763
Guargum Short term
trend is down,
Expecting price may go
down in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
11907
RES. 2
12043
3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-01-2015 4791.00 20.00 0.42%
BARLEY 20-01-2015 1610.00 6.00 0.37%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-01-2015 597.50 1.45 0.24%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-01-2015 1407.00 1.00 0.07%
CHANA 20-01-2015 3272.00 1.00 0.03%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-01-2015 12371.00 -515.00 -4.00%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD SEED 20-01-2015 4186.00 -33.00 -0.78%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 8026.00 -42.00 -0.52%
JEERA 20-01-2015 13605.00 -20.00 -0.15%
SOYABEAN 20-01-2015 3291.00 -4.00 -0.12%
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4763 4744 0.40
CHANA 3288 3229 +1.83
CORIANDER 12862 13029 -1.28
GUARGUM 11980 11520 +3.99
JEERA 13575 13125 +3.43
MUSTARD SEED 4222 4184 +0.91
SOYABEAN 3292 3268 +0.73
TURMERIC 8250 7962 +1.11
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
A Parliament panel has censured the India's Narendra Modi
government for not creating a buffer stock for pulses as per the
panel's recommendation.The panel reminded the Modi
government that India is not yet sel sufficient in pulses. It
advised the government to formulate ling term policies to
increase production, closely monitor prices. The panel also
recommended advance planning for import of pulses."The
committee deprecate the approach of the ministry (of food and
consumer affairs) in brushing aside the recommendation of the
committee for maintaining buffer stock of pulses as is
maintained for wheat, sugar, rice, etc...," the Parliament's Public
Accounts Committee (PAC) said in its report tabled in the Lok
Sabha.According to latest estimates, coverage under Rabi pulses
is at 111.13 lakh hectares while the last year’s sowing area
coverage was 124.78 lakh hectares. India had witnessed a lower
harvest (5.2 mt) in the kharif season.India imports 3-4 million
tonnes of pulses every year as its domestic production lags
behind at 17-18 million tonnes.
Farmers' agitation for better cotton prices in Gujarat took a
turn for the worse on Wednesday when a young farmer
immolated himself near Rajkot mounting trouble on the
Anandiben Patel government that tried to appease the segment
two days ago through a Rs 1,100-crore relief package. The state
government appears cornered on the issue as dissenting voices
from within the party have begun comparing the Patel
government with that of her mentor Narendra Modi. The
agitation led by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh-affiliate
Bharatiya Kisan Sangh (BKS) has been seeking higher support
price for cotton and even organised a rally in Ahmedabad to
press for the demand.
Spot jeera soared today amid excellent demand as a break above Rs
13000 per quintal mark witnessed good buying. Jeera arrivals maintain
a poor trend and are unlikely to see any improvement in the near term.
The commodity witnessed an inflow of 10000 bags today in Unjha.
Spot Prices are up Rs 320 per quintal to trade at Rs 13322 per quintal
today. These are the highest levels in nearly one year for the
commodity.
Guarseed prices are mildly lower today and some buying is emerging
from local mills on lack of stocks. Guarseed arrivals from the latest
harvest are wearing off though as poor prices are not enthusing farmers
to bring their produce to the mandies. Export demand for gum also
looks poor given the bleak undertone in global crude oil prices. The
global crude oil prices have dropped near fresh five year lows and
unless a clear upside break takes place in crude, guar is not expected to
see much of upside.
Wheat is unlikely to see much of an upside as supplies from FCI are
sufficient for large mills requirements. Wheat crop is seen good though
further progress would depend upon the weather cues. Wheat`s sowing
area is at 241.91 lakh hectares as compared to last year's 251.32 lakh
hectares. The area under sowing of total Coarse cereals is at 46.22 lakh
hectares as compared to last year's 50.62 lakh hectares.
Excellent stockiest demand is supporting in Turmeric. However, the
global scenario is thin with the export quotes continuing to linger
around $3.53 per tonne. Stockists are expecting a steady output in near
term though some traders are eying fresh demand to emerge in January
as new crop arrivals are still four months away.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National & International Market Update
Cash market trades mixed on Friday amid normal trading activities. Export
demand is weak at this point of time.The year (Jan to Dec) may end up with 4
lakh tonne oil export, lower by 15 percent from last year. Arrival pressure from
new crop is awaited and production is expected to be higher by at least by 3
lakh tonne from previous year(as per trade figures). Private holding is higher
than expectation and bearish outlook is a visible possibility in the weeks to
come. The main reason for current firmness is stock holding. Major portion of
stock is in strong hands and stake holders are dragging market up in their own
interest. Overall sentiment remains bearish and market may dip after current
month’s settlement. Price is artificially at higher level and demand has
decreased in the past weeks. Castor oil export from India is bound to dip by 15
percent in comparison to last year as major buyers like China has reduced its
buying considerably in 2014. Market participants expect around 4 lakh tonne
castor oil export in current MY while India has exported 4.79 lakh tonne oil
last year(2013). Castor Meal Export (FAS), Ex –Kandla traded up by $5 to
$140 per tonne as compared to last week. It is 22.86 percent higher from the
price of Dec 2013. Castor seed oil export price has decreased slightly in last
four weeks and it is now being quoted at $1470 per tonne. New castor crop
would start hitting the market by the end of December but it would not impact
the price due to lower volume of arrivals.
In the month of Nov India exported 6839.27 MT castor seed cake at an
average price of $145.11 per tonne. Taiwan emerged as a major buyer in the
month of Nov. Buyers from EU, China and Japan are expected to restrict their
buyings and only need based buying may be seen in the near term. Buyers are
trying to analyse new crop size and improvement in arrivals at this point of
time. Last week FOB quotes in Kandla hovered at $1470 per tonne. It may
stay steady from current level. No fresh trade was reported at this level today.
Demand for oil has decreased considerably in last two months.
CENTER 19-Dec-14 18-Dec-14 Change
SUMERPUR 80 212 -132
RAJKOT 380 265 +115
PATAN 5235 5780 -545
KADI 1644 1360 +284
DEESA 2078 2002 +76
MEHSANA 571 560 +11
GONDAL 248 NR -
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL DHANIYA JAN BELOW 12350 TGTS 12320,12270 SL 12400 SELL GUARGUM JAN BELOW 11600 TGTS 11550,11450 SL 11690
BUY CASTORSEED JAN ABOVE 4850 TGTS 4880,4930 SL 4800 BUY TMC APR ABOVE 8100 TGTS 8150,8250 SL 8010
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