View on Crude & Guarseed.....

1. Commodity Insight
17th October, 2011
Turnover of 14.10.11 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
17.10.11 14.10.11
Exchange Turnover (Cr.) Gold $ 1685.80 $ 1683.00 $ 2.80 $
MCX 55439 Silver $ 32.34 $ 32.17 $ 0.17 $
NCDEX 5519 Crude $ 87.02 $ 86.80 $ 0.22 $
USDINR 49.0425 49.1275 - 0.0850
Crude Oil
Fundamentally, Crude Oil is facing a lot of resistance as
th
global news is not supporting the prices to rise. On 11
October 2011, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth
forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the
downturn in developed countries and efforts by China and
India to curb fuel use. Even Slovakia rejected Euro zone
th
bail out package on 11 October resulting into fears of
recession in Europe. Even Production from Libya is getting
increased after Gaddafi troops are losing their ground
leading to rise in supplies of oil. Currently crude oil is
trading at 87$ with strong support at 70$ and resistance at
92$.
Technically, Crude is moving up from past few weeks, we
have seen that prices have moved up from 3700 levels to
4300 levels that means a return of more than 15% in 2
weeks. Crude is having major resistance at 92$, a
breakout and consistent close above same will take prices
till 97$ and 102$ in NYMEX, i.e. in MCX a breakout above
4450 will take prices till 4700 and 4980 levels. As the
upside move was very sharp in last few days so there can
be some correction or profit booking in prices till 4100 or
4000 Rs.
In long term, Crude is expected to touch levels of 100$ i.e. in MCX levels of 5000 Rs and above
can be seen in next two to three months. Crude Oil is very good to buy in corrections till 82$ in
NYMEX and 4000 Rs in MCX. In long term we maintain our bullish view on Crude Oil.
Guar Seed
Fundamentally, Guar Seed is very volatile as rains in Rajasthan and new arrivals later in the month
are creating volatility. In medium to long term we expect the prices to move in uptrend. Guar
production in Rajasthan is estimated to be lower during this crop year at 11.37 lakh tons compared to
last crop year when it was more than 12 lakh tons. Even the carry forward stock is low in warehouse
and tight supply in domestic market. Low arrivals, low stock and demand from US and European
markets will support prices in India.
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Equities Commodities Wealth Mutual Funds Insurance

2. Commodity Insight
17th October, 2011
Technically, Guarseed prices are moving in upward
direction and the same can continue in short term.
Guarseed has support at 4350 levels and having
resistance at 4750 levels. Guarseed is good to buy in
corrections till 4400 or 4450 levels and on higher side
can touch levels of 4700 soon.
In Long term, Guarseed is bullish till the time prices
does not give close below 4150 levels, on higher side
levels of 4800 and 5000 Rs are easily achievable in
next two to three months. We maintain our bullish view
on Guarseed, so corrections in prices should be used
as buying opportunity.
Crude Chart
CRUDE OIL - 1 BBL - 1 MONTH (4,271.00, 4,286.00, 4,271.00, 4,280.00, +21.0000) 5200
5100
5000
4900
4800
4700
4600
4500
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
Relative Strength Index (61.5787)
70
60
50
40
30
20
Volume (594,900)
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x1000
27 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 16 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31
2011 February March April May June July August September October
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Equities Commodities Wealth Mutual Funds Insurance

3. Commodity Insight
17th October, 2011
Daily Trading Range
 Crude today’s trading level are 4330 - 4240.
 Intraday support @ 4180 - 4240 and Resistance @ 4280 - 4330.
 Intraday Trend Sideways, Buy on dips & Sell on rise....…
 Crude Sell @ 4300 SL 4330 TGT 4240 - 4180…..
Open Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments
of Price Loss Price
Call
15.10.11 Buy CPO Nov 467-469 460 481-502 470.70
14.10.11 Buy Silver Mini 52900-53100 52500 53800-55000 53426
st
Almost 1 TGT
13.10.11 Buy Nickel 906 890 930-945 932.30 Achieved @ 928.40,
Hold with SL @ 906.
st
1 TGT Achieved, Hold
10.10.11 Buy Gold Mini 26450 26200 26700-26900 26733 with SL @ 26450.
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Price Loss Spread
Call Spread
27.09.11 Buy Zinc Mini 96.90
3000 3000-5000
Sell Alumini 109.90
Report by : -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodity & Currency Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Mohit Kothari (Research Associate) mohit.kothari@destimoney.com
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Equities Commodities Wealth Mutual Funds Insurance

4. Commodity Insight
17th October, 2011
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