1. Commodity Insight
22nd November, 2012
Turnover of 21.11.12 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
22.11.12 21.11.12
Exchange Turnover (Cr.)
Gold 1729.60 $ 1728.35 $ 1.25 $
MCX 53798 Silver 33.28 $ 33.34 $ - 0.06 $
NCDEX 5504 Crude 87.47 $ 87.79 $ - 0.32 $
USDINR 55.26 55.16 0.10
Zinc
Fundamentally, Zinc have recovered well from
low of Rs.96 in last three weeks to high of Rs.
106.50. But Zinc fundamentals may not be
bright, as International Lead and Zinc Study
Group (ILZG) has forecasted a small decline in
world demand for refined zinc metal in 2012 at
12.71 mn tons while in 2013 it may rise 3.8% to
13.9 mn tons. Global zinc mine output is
forecast to increase by 5% in 2012 to 13.60
million tonnes and a further 2.7% in 2013 to
13.96 million tonnes. About 50 percent of Zinc is
bought to galvanize steel, used in everything
from buildings to roads to cars. Global crude
steel output rose 0.8 percent to 895.4 million
tons in the first seven months from a year
earlier, the Brussels-based World Steel
Association estimates.
Meanwhile, a news reports said that China State
Reserve Bureau has issued a tender recently to
buy 100,000 mt of refined zinc from domestic
smelters to shore up prices. The stockpiling activity is expected to provide firm support to zinc prices.
Technically, Zinc is moving up from past few weeks, we have seen prices moving up from 97 levels to
106.50 levels, as the upside move was sharp so there can be some correction in Zinc from present levels.
But the overall view remains bullish so any correction or dip in prices till Rs.104 in MCX should be used as
buying opportunity for the target of 108 and Rs111.
In Long term, we expect Zinc prices to move up. Zinc is bullish till the time prices are trading above 97
levels, on higher side we expect prices to touch levels of Rs.115 in next two months. Zinc has major
resistance at 115 levels, if prices are able to break and give close above Rs.115, than the levels of 121 can
be seen in future. Overall dips in prices till 104 or Rs.103 should be used as buying opportunity for the
target of 115 and 121 Rs. We maintain our bullish view in Zinc for next two to three months.
Turmeric
Fundamentally, Indian Turmeric is not sustaining at higher prices because, weighed by rising stocks and
sluggish demand from overseas and local buyers, while the approaching arrivals season added to the decline.
In last two and half month price has corrected by almost Rs.1000 and overseas enquiries are almost negligible
at these prices and traders are not willing to buy above 5,000 rupees because of heavy stocks.
Prices are likely to fall further when the new crop arrives. Traders who have orders from local spices firms are
buying a little to fulfill those orders. Demand is low, because not enough new orders are being placed. Farmers
said they have been bringing limited quantities for auction, as the prices are low. The area under turmeric
cultivation is lower this year due to scanty rainfall during the planting season and the shift of acreage to other
crops, but higher carry forward stocks are expected to keep supplies firm.
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2. Commodity Insight
22nd November, 2012
Technically, Turmeric has been moving in a range of
Rs.500 i.e. from Rs.5000 on lower side to 5500 on
higher side. So for short term one should create
position with support and resistance levels, dips in
prices till Rs.5100 should be used as buying
opportunity and rise in prices till Rs.5450 should be
used as selling opportunity.
For long term, Turmeric is bullish till the time prices
are trading above 5000 levels, so correction in
prices till Rs.5100 should be used as buying
opportunity for the target of Rs.5700. If prices are
able to break and give close above 5700 than further
upside can be seen till Rs.6100. We maintain our
bullish view in Turmeric for next one to two months.
Zinc Chart
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3. Commodity Insight
22nd November, 2012
Daily Trading Range
Zinc today’s trading levels are 104-106
Intraday Support @ 104-104.85 and Resistance @ 105.50-106
Intraday Trend Up, Buy on dips….
Zinc Buy @ 104.85 SL 104 TGT 106….
Open Calls
Type
Stop Closing
Date of Commodity Initiated Price Target Comments
Loss Price
Call
Spread Calls
Stop
Type Initiated Target
Date Commodity Loss Comments
of Call Price Spread
Spread
Report by: -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodities & Currencies Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Yogesh Khatri (Senior Research Analyst) yogesh.khatri@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame (Research Associate) kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Siddhesh Ghare (Research Associate) siddhesh.ghare@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
22nd November, 2012
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