View on Aluminium and Mentha Oil

1. Commodity Insight
12th April, 2012
Turnover of 11.04.12 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
12.04.12 11.04.12
Exchange Turnover (Cr.)
Gold 1652.95 $ 1658.80 $ -5.85 $
MCX 47308 Silver 31.54 $ 31.51 $ 0.03 $
NCDEX 8052 Crude 103.24 $ 102.58 $ 0.66 $
USDINR 51.70 51.66 0.04
Aluminium
Fundamentally, global primary aluminum production
fell by 141,000 metric tons in February to 1.998
million, compared to a revised 2.139 million in
January, according to the latest report released by
the International Aluminum Institute. However,
output was up from 1.95 million tons in the same
month of 2011. From January to February,
production fell in all seven of the IAI’s reporting
regions around the world. Chinese production of
aluminium surged in February, potentially adding to
the existing global glut, as per the latest data. China
is one of the largest producer and consumer of
aluminium in the world. A report by the IAI stated
that China's average daily primary aluminium output
rose by 9.20% to 53,400 Mt in February as
compared to 48,900Mt in January. This jump in
Chinese aluminium output may counteract the
effects of global production cuts. North American
and European production has been decreasing in
contrast due to planned cutbacks by aluminium
producers. As per the data by the China Nonferrous
Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), during the
last 3 years, Chinese aluminium output has slipped
in March after a surge in February.
Technically, Aluminium has been moving in a range of 10 Rs from past one month i.e. between 104 to 114 Rs.
Overall we can see that Aluminium has good support at 104 and 100 levels, we don’t see prices to move below
100 levels, So aluminium is good to buy on dips around 105 for the target of 110-114.
In Long term we are bearish in Aluminium and expect prices to come till 95 Rs in next two to three months.
So anytime rise in prices till 110-112 Rs. should be used as selling opportunity for the target of 99 and 95
Rs. Aluminium is bearish till the time prices does not break and give close above 114 Rs. We maintain our
bearish view in Aluminium for next few months.
Mentha Oil
Fundamentally, Mentha oil futures were in uptrend due to firm spot demand from the pharmaceutical industries
amid limited availability of stocks in the markets for physical transactions. Physical demand of mentha oil
increased especially from places like Chandausi, Barabanki, Rampur. Also farmers were reluctant to offload
their stocks in the market anticipating prices to further rise which created an artificial supply crunch and thereby
kept prices higher. By Mid of March, Mentha oil futures continued the uptrend on the back of limited stocks in
the spot markets along with rising overseas demand. The next crop is expected to arrive in June and till then
arrivals are expected to remain weak in the mandis. Total stock of Mentha Oil at MCX-monitored warehouses at
Chandausi was 1,82,709 kg of which 1,52,502 kg was physical stock and demat stock was 30,206 kg.
• Equities • Commodities • Wealth • Mutual Funds • Insurance 1

2. Commodity Insight
12th April, 2012
Technically, Mentha Oil has been moving up, we
have seen an upside rally of more than 1500 Rs in
last two to three months. Mentha started its upside
rally from 1000 Rs and made a recent high of 2564.
Well after a sharp upside rally, now it’s time where
prices need to consolidate or can have some profit
booking at present levels.
So for next few weeks prices can move sideways in
a range of 2250 Rs to 2550 Rs. Anytime rise in
prices till 2500 or 2550 should be used as selling
opportunity for the target of 2250 levels. If Mentha is
able to break and give close below 2250, than a
further correction can be seen till 2000 levels. So
overall we are expecting a correction and maintain
a bearish view in Mentha Oil for next few months.
Aluminium Chart
ALUMINIUM KG - 1 MONTH (106.350, 107.200, 106.050, 107.050, +0.90000)
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
Relative Strength Index (39.6666) 70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Volume (44,465,000) 65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x1000
20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 16 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23
July August September October November December 2012 February March April
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3. Commodity Insight
12th April, 2012
Daily Trading Range
 Aluminium today’s trading levels are 106.30 – 108.20….
 Intraday Support @ 106.30 – 107 and Resistance @ 107.60 – 108.20
 Intraday Trend Up, Buy on dips….
 Aluminium Buy @ 107 SL 106.30 TGT 108.20….
Open Calls
Type
Stop Closing
Date of Commodity Initiated Price Target Comments
Loss Price
Call
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Call Price Loss Spread
Spread
Report by: -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodities & Currencies Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Kunal Kame (Research Associate) kunal.kame@destimoney.com
Siddhesh Ghare (Research Associate) siddhesh.ghare@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
12th April, 2012
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