1. Commodity Insight
31st October, 2011
Turnover of 28.10.11 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down
31.10.11 28.10.11
Exchange Turnover (Cr.) Gold $ 1714.80$ 1743.25$ -28.45$
MCX 53236 Silver $ 34.30$ 35.24$ -0.94$
NCDEX 5619 Crude $ 92.30$ 93.13$ -0.83$
USDINR 48.9025 49.0025 -0.10
Aluminium
Fundamentally, in last few months prices of base
metals like copper, lead, zinc & nickel have come
down by 20-25%, but the prices of Aluminium has not
come down that significantly. The main reason for
support of Aluminium is big investment banks like JP
Morgan & Barclays are creating long positions. Almost
80-90% of aluminium is being tied up in warehouses of
LME by bank financing deals. Speculators have build
up short positions in Aluminium on calculation that the
global slowdown will result in lower prices, but long
position by bankers are influencing the prices of
aluminium and creating support for prices.
Technically, Aluminium has been moving in a range of
10 Rs from past one month i.e. between 104 to 114
Rs. Overall we can see that Aluminium has good
support at 104 and 100 levels, we don’t see prices to
move below 100 levels, So aluminium is good to buy
on dips around 105 for the target of 111.
In Long term we are bullish in Aluminium and expect prices to come till 115 and 123 Rs in next
two to three months. Aluminium seems to be strongest among all the base metals, so its an best
buy in corrections till 105 and 103. Aluminium is bullish till the time prices does not break and
give close below 100Rs. We maintain our bullish view.
Mentha Oil
Fundamentally, Mentha oil will trade higher due to strong demand in local market amid weak arrivals.
Mentha oil prices will get support at lower levels because of rise in export to European countries and
China. Domestic demand from pharmaceutical Industries will also provide support to prices. So low
arrivals, rising export demand and domestic demand from the pharmaceutical industries will lead to
rise in prices of mentha oil.
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2. Commodity Insight
31st October, 2011
Technically, Mentha Oil has been moving up, we
have seen an upside rally of more than 400 Rs in
last two months. Mentha started its upside rally from
1000 Rs and made a recent high of 1411. Now from
the life high of 1411 prices have started correcting
and gave a correction of 200 Rs.
Now it seems that mentha prices need to consolidate
after a sharp upside rally in last two months. So for
next few weeks prices can move sideways in a range
of 1150 Rs to 1400 Rs. Anytime in corrections till
1200 Rs should be used as buying opportunity and
on rise till 1380 Rs can be used as selling
opportunity. We maintain our sideways view in
Mentha Oil.
Aluminium
ALUMINIUM KG - 1 MONTH (108.450, 108.750, 108.350, 108.700, +0.20000) 126
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
RelativeVolume (930,000)
Strength Index (51.7270)
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
x1000
10 17 24 31 7 14 21 28 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 16 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 31 7 14
February March April May June July August September October November
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Equities Commodities Wealth Mutual Funds Insurance

3. Commodity Insight
31st October, 2011
Daily Trading Range
 Aluminium today’s trading level are 106.40 – 109.50.
 Intraday support @ 106.40 – 107.25 and Resistance @ 108.30 – 109.50.
 Intraday Trend Sell on rise.
 Aluminium Sell @ 108.50 SL 109.50 TGT 107.25 – 106.40 …..
Open Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments
of Price Loss Price
Call
st
29.10.11 Sell Soybean 2209 2235 2180-2140 2206.50 Almost 1 TGT
Achieved @ 2181,
Hold with SL @
2209.
29.10.11 Buy Wheat 1085-1088 1070 1108-1120 1092.80
st
Almost 1 TGT
15.10.11 Buy CPO NOV 467-469 460 481-502 476.50 Achieved@ 479.50,
Hold with SL @
467
Spread Calls
Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Comments
of Price Loss Spread
Call Spread
- - - - - - -
Report by : -
Sumeet Bagadia (Head - Commodity & Currency Research) sumeet.bagadia@destimoney.com
Mohit Kothari (Research Associate) mohit.kothari@destimoney.com
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4. Commodity Insight
31st October, 2011
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