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CommerceNext Holiday Survey 2021
The document presents findings from a survey of 84 digital retailers regarding their expectations for the 2021 holiday season. Key themes include challenges such as supply chain issues, inflation, and decreased consumer spending, leading to reduced promotions and potential delays in shipping. Retailers remain cautiously optimistic about holiday sales compared to previous years, despite concerns over margins and inventory management.
CommerceNext Holiday Survey 2021
- 1. 5 Themes forthe Online Holiday Season
- 2. 2 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Survey of 84 digital retailers and their attitudes and expectations for the 2021 holiday retail season Survey fielded November 3-9, 2021 Study background 36% 19% 19% 12% 11% 4% DTC/digital first (ie vertically integrated) Traditional DTC/omnichannel Wholesale manufacturer Digital first multibrand Multibrand omnichannel Other 11% 52% 26% 4% 7% Less than $10MM $10-100MM $100-500MM $500MM-1B More than $1B Type of Merchant Annual eCommerce Revenue
- 3. 3 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Cyber Meh-day 2. Island of Misfit Sales 3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces 4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments 5. Miracle in the 21st Month Key themes
- 4. 4 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Survey respondents say they will promote less during key promotional periods Which best describes the volume/level of your holiday promotions this year versus last year for… Thanksgiving and Black Friday Cyber Monday and Cyber Week December 10% 56% 35% We are promoting more We are promoting the same We are promoting less 13% 55% 32% 11% 51% 38%
- 5. 5 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Cyber Meh-day 2. Island of Misfit Sales 3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces 4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments 5. Miracle in the 21st Month Key themes
- 6. 6 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Supply chain is a major issue… 21% 23% 38% 57% 75% 76% Consumer spending levels down on gifts and holiday products Labor shortages in stores (not enough store workers) Inflation which will force us to raise our prices to consumers Labor shortages in fulfillment (not enough warehouse workers, not enough truck drivers, etc.) Late deliveries by carriers/shippers (ie inability to deliver holiday orders on time) Supply chain issues (specifically having enough product available to sell)
- 7. 7 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. …and that will lead to higher prices as well, and sales will be on what is left Which of the following have you done, or do you plan to do this holiday season, due to supply chain or any other concerns? (click all that apply) 4% 6% 6% 7% 13% 17% 21% 30% 31% 43% 50% 63% We aren’t doing anything special, or we aren’t concerned about supply chain issues We are offering “personal shopping” on behalf of consumers We are price matching competitors We plan to have big promotions in Q1 2022 We are increasing the overall promotions for the season compared to last year We’re encouraging shoppers to buy gift cards We are offering access to our best customers first We are reducing shipping offers because we are concerned about on-time shipments We have been forced to change the products that we are promoting for the season We are increasing prices because of inflation We’re reducing our overall promotional volume for the season compared to last year We’re encouraging consumers to shop earlier
- 8. 8 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Cyber Meh-day 2. Island of Misfit Sales 3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces 4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments 5. Miracle in the 21st Month Key themes
- 9. 9 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Most consumers are somewhat aware of supply chain issues How aware do you believe your customers are about supply chain issues and decreased product availability? 23% 70% 7% Highly aware Somewhat aware Not aware at all
- 10. 10 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Retailers plan to communicate shortages via email What are you doing to help raise awareness with customers that products may not be available or may not be available in time for Christmas? (select all that apply) 9% 21% 27% 31% 44% 44% 69% Pop-up notifications Incorporated into advertising Order information FAQs Customer service reps reminding customers Shipping information on product detail pages (eg products can ship on x date) Persistent messaging on website Email communications
- 11. 11 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Inventory will be a battleground…marketplaces are well-positioned to thrive “Online marketplaces are driven by supply and demand and naturally backfill products that are sold out everywhere else.”
- 12. 12 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Cyber Meh-day 2. Island of Misfit Sales 3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory…in Marketplaces 4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments 5. Miracle in the 21st Month Key themes
- 13. 13 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Late deliveries continue to be a problem for retailers 21% 23% 38% 57% 75% 76% Consumer spending levels down on gifts and holiday products Labor shortages in stores (not enough store workers) Inflation which will force us to raise our prices to consumers Labor shortages in fulfillment (not enough warehouse workers, not enough truck drivers, etc.) Late deliveries by carriers/shippers (ie inability to deliver holiday orders on time) Supply chain issues (specifically having enough product available to sell)
- 14. 14 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. There will be reductions in shipping promotions due to carrier concerns Which of the following have you done, or do you plan to do this holiday season, due to supply chain or any other concerns? (click all that apply) 4% 6% 6% 7% 13% 17% 21% 30% 31% 43% 50% 63% We aren’t doing anything special, or we aren’t concerned about supply chain issues We are offering “personal shopping” on behalf of consumers We are price matching competitors We plan to have big promotions in Q1 2022 We are increasing the overall promotions for the season compared to last year We’re encouraging shoppers to buy gift cards We are offering access to our best customers first We are reducing shipping offers because we are concerned about on-time shipments We have been forced to change the products that we are promoting for the season We are increasing prices because of inflation We’re reducing our overall promotional volume for the season compared to last year We’re encouraging consumers to shop earlier
- 15. 15 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. There will be all manner of adjusting shipping promotions down Do you plan to adjust your shipping and handling offers this year in any of the following ways? (select all that apply) 1% 2% 6% 11% 17% 21% 29% 32% More days of free shipping Lower thresholds for free shipping More shipping promotions We aren’t offering any free shipping this year Fewer days of free shipping Higher thresholds for free shipping Fewer shipping promotions None of the above Fewer shipping promos More shipping promos
- 16. 16 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Most retailers are shipping relatively slowly now What is the standard (non-expedited) shipping commitment that you plan to offer to consumers this holiday season (select most appropriate response)? 0% 4% 11% 10% 20% 43% 13% Same day Next day 2 days 3 days 4 days 5+ days We do not yet know
- 17. 17 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. For many merchants, standard shipping will end weeks before Christmas What is the last date prior to Christmas that consumers will be able to order from your site without having to pay expedited shipping fees this year (select the most appropriate response)? 23% 35% 23% 8% 12% Before December 11th (2 weeks before Christmas) Between December 11 - 15th Between December 15 - 18th After December 18th (1 week before Christmas) We do not yet know
- 18. 18 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Cyber Meh-day 2. Island of Misfit Sales 3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces 4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments 5. Miracle in the 21st Month Key themes
- 19. 19 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Retailers are nonetheless optimistic Considering both your company’s situation and the macro environment, how do you expect online holiday sales in 2021 will do compared to 2019 (PRE-PANDEMIC)? Considering both your company’s situation and the macro environment, how do you expect online holiday sales in 2021 will do compared to 2020? 42% 40% 10% 8% Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse 22% 45% 20% 13% Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse
- 20. 20 © Forrester Research,Inc. All rights reserved. Many think their margins will be lower (which shouldn’t be the case given higher prices and fewer sales) How do you expect your margins to change in 2021 compared to 2020 (due to inflation, supply chain issues, promotions, etc.)? 5% 21% 31% 39% 4% Should be much higher Should be somewhat higher Same Should be somewhat lower Much lower Lower margins could be driven by expedited shipping, customer service calls and refunds!
- 21. 21 Thank You. Sucharita Kodali VP,Principal Analyst skodali@forrester.com Twitter: @smulpuru
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