Car use growth is coming to a hold. In several western countries car use is stabilizing or, especially among younger age groups, even decreasing. At the same time new urban mobility concepts are popping up: Car2GO, peer-to-peer networks leading to less car ownership, large investments in cycle lanes in large metropolitan areas like London and New York and a rebirth of urban rail systems (transit oriented developments). Are we experiencing the end of car mobility?

1. The 21 century:
the end of car
mobility as we
know it
Wim Korver
Club of Amsterdam
2 February 2014

2. 2
Car mobility growth comes to a halt, is this
structural?

3. 3
Content
•
•
•
•
Driving forces behind (urban) mobility
Four possible reasons for lower car use
Challenges: the sustainable city
(Possible) Solutions

4. 4
Economic growth = mobility growth

5. 5
Knowledge economy = growth of cities
Share of people living in cities

6. 6
Possible reasons for lower car use
1. Saturation level achieved
•
Everyone has a car
2. Internet society
•
Less need for physical trips
3. More international trips
•
Mobility occurs at another place
4. Behavioral change?
•
Do people favour other modes

7. 7
NL: still growth potential, no signals for
saturation
Car ownership in NL is low: 500 cars per
1.000 inhabitants)
Italy: 600 cars per 1.000 inh.
USA: 800 cars per 1.000 inh.
Travel time constant during the
last 15 years

8. 8
Internet society leads to less car use?
• Is Internet the transport mode of the future?
•
Or is it the self driving car?

9. 9
Historically: more communication leads
to more physical trips

10. 10
No scientific evidence of lower car use
as a result of the internet revolution
• Influence of the internet society on car use is
the sum of substitution and generation
•
•
Some car trips disappear (teleworking) and
at the time new trips are made.

11. 11
More international mobility: strong growth (+45%)
International travel: distance traveled by Dutch people
100
Holiday
Other
Total
90
80
Billion kmDis
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

12. 12
But, limited influence on local car mobility,
because:
• The share of international trips is 2% of al trips
• Most international trips are short distance trips,
growth is mainly holidays trips to destinations
further away
• Time spend on international trips is constant

13. 13
Less car use under younger age groups
Age group: 18-29 years
Mode
Trips between
1995-2009
Car
-27%
Train
+31%
Bus/tram/metro -46%
Bicycle
Total
Car mobility per person
-16%
-21%

14. 14
Younger people:
•
•
•
•
Favor city life
Follow higher education (in the city)
Increasingly live in 1 or 2 persons households
Use more and more sharing systems
(sharification)

15. 15
Younger people do own less cars

16. 16
Possible reasons for lower car use
1. Saturation level achieved
NO
2. Internet society
Could be
3. More international trips
NO
4. Behavioral change?
Yes

17. 17
So …
• Major reason for lower car use, is new behavior
of younger age groups
• Aspects that play a role:
•
•
•
Younger people are more oriented on the city
Less orientation on ownership (car sharing)
Internet society leads (for these age group) to new
spatial patterns
• But also … financial crises, it could also be a
temporal dip

18. 18
Challenges for cities
• Growth of the number of (young) inhabitants
• On the long term: major environmental
challenges: health and climate problems
• And accessibility, traffic safety as well

19. 19
The sustainable city: Health
Cars kill people
Lower life expectancy in months due to
small particles (source: EU)
NL

20. 20
The sustainable city: Climate
Transport becomes major source CO 2 emissions
Expected CO2
emissions, EU-27
Transport related
CO2 emissions

21. 21
Solutions
• Less urban car use is needed
• Clean technologies (e.g. electric vehicles) will
help, but will not be enough
• Higher densities
• Sustaining the new transport behavior

22. 22
Higher densities lead to lower CO2 emissions

23. 23
Invest in sustaining the new transport behavior
of the younger age groups, for instance
• Life event: the step from studying towards
working life
• PartYcipation: inhabitants create there own
environment
• Support Sharification: peer-to-peer systems,
car sharing, bike sharing, etc.

24. 24
Conclusions
• (Major) Cities will continue to grow
• Urban mobility will continue to grow
•
•
Strong growth trips to and from the cities
Alternatives for the car are available
• Challenge: sustainable growth
•
•
Higher densities
Livable cities need policies to make the new transport
behavior structural