This presentation was delivered as part of the "Developing Building Blocks of a Global Mitigation Architecture" workshop series.

1. Climate-Compatible
Development Plan for the
Dominican Republic
Presentation by
Federica Bietta
Deputy Director
Coalition for Rainforest
Nations
Workshop
“Developing Knowledge
on Building Blocks of the
Global Mitigation Architecture”
Bonn, June 11, 2011

2. | 1
▪ The Dominican Republic resolved to develop a
Climate Compatible Development Plan (CCDP) in
2010, to progress towards the goal of sustainable
development already manifested in the DR's National
Development Strategy 2010-2030
▪ Thanks to support by the BMU through ICI, the
Dominican Republic received assistance from the
Coalition for Rainforest Nations in the form of
policy advice and analytical support
▪ A joint DR-CfRN team has been working since
COP 16 in Cancún, involving stakeholders from
Dominican government, civil society, and the private
sector
▪ President Fernández will present the draft CCDP
in the second half of 2011
Context

3. | 2
Climate-compatible development (CCDP) plans integrate
economic development, climate change mitigation, and adaptation
Scope
of phase 1
Development
Climate-
compatible
development
AdaptationMitigation
CCDPs allow
developing
countries to join the
global mitigation
effort by identifying
the mitigation
opportunities that
stimulate
development

4. | 3
The Draft CCDP is structured along 7 components that were developed
sequentially - from a baseline assessment to draft sector action plans
Abatement potential and
develop cost curve
Determination of total economic abatement potential
Development of abatement cost curve showing abatement levers
from all sectors with their abatement potential and cost
3
Prioritize sectors and
levers
▪ Prioritization of sectors and levers based on development impact,
abatement potential and cost, as well as ease of implementation
4
Needs for financing and
institutional change
▪ Assessment of required capex and financing conditions
▪ Assessment of institutional changes required for implementation
6
Economic development
goals and baseline
▪ Determination of economic growth indicators until 2030 and
priorities of DR's development strategy
1
▪ Drafting of Action Plans outlining how the abatement potential will
be captured in priority sectors Power, Transport, Forestry, and
Quick Wins
Draft Action Plans of key
sectors
7
Economic impact of
abatement levers in key
sectors
5 ▪ Estimation of the CCDP's economic impact in cooperation with the
Economic Ministry, focusing on job creation, disposable income,
FDI inflow, and trade balance improvements
GHG emissions baseline
(BAU)
▪ Determination of GHG emissions from all sectors until 2030,
based on economic growth indicators and detailed sector data
2

5. | 4
Our approach to developing a CCDP is based on 6 working principles
Country relevance and
ownership
Trust-based procedures and
confidentiality
Co-creation and capability
building
2
3
1
DEVELOPING A CCDP
Frequent interactions
Close coordination &
syndication
Economic development
mindset
4
5
6

6. | 5
Next steps in the development of the Dominican CCDP
Integrate feedback
from 3rd Steering
Committee meeting
Reflect and integrate feedback from 3rd Steering Committee into sectoral
action plans as well as institutional set-up of CCDP implementation
Write Draft CCDP
Consolidate and integrate all findings to date as well as sectoral action
plans into an overarching CCDP for the DR
Complete sectoral
Action Plans
Make progress on Sector Action Plans until the presentation of the Draft
CCDP by the President:
▪ Define the measures of each Action Plan concretely
▪ Complete policy review and identify legislative changes
▪ Refine and concretize implementation strategy
▪ Determine required investment and available finance
▪ Analyze impact on economic and social development
▪ Engage with stakeholders
▪ Concretize roadmap for implementation
Stakeholder
outreach
Engage a widening breadth and depth of stakeholders as the CCDP
becomes ever more concrete
High-level check-up
after 6 months
Meeting of the Steering Committee in November/December 2011 to
discuss implementation and first results of the CCDP
Presentation of the
Draft CCDP
Presentation of the Draft CCDP in the presence of President
Fernández in second half of 2011

7. | 6
Thank you!

8. | 7
Backup

9. | 8
GDP per capita1 growth aspirations
USD thousands
SOURCE: National Development Strategy 2010 – 2030; Harvard CID preliminary development plan for the DR; team analysis
1 GDP/population
2 Aspiration stated in the National Development Strategy by the Ministry of Economics and Planning
3 2030 Development strategy for the DR by the Center of International Development at Harvard University (Prof. Hausmann)
4 Derived from GDP per capita growth aspirations and DR Central Bank population forecasts
4.5% p.a.
5.2
2010
12.5
2030E22020E2
7.8 +140%
Over the next two decades, the DR aspires to grow its GDP per capita by
140%
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND BASELINE
Enablers of economic
development plan3
GDP4, USD m
9.9 11.1 12.0Pop., m
52 86 150
▪ Competitiveness
▪ Productivity improvements
▪ Capacity Building
▪ Reduction of unemployment
1

10. | 9
With business-as-usual, economic development aspirations will increase
current GHG emissions of 36 MtCO2e by ~ 40% to ~ 50 MtCO2e by 2030
BAU assumptions
▪ GDP growth of 5% p.a.
▪ Population growth falling
continuously from 1.4% in 2010
to 0.9% in 2030
▪ Sector-specific assumptions in
line with economic development
under BAU
▪ Changes to sector fundamentals
only included when they:
– Are certain to occur (e.g.
power plants already under
construction)
– Have stand-alone economic
rationale (e.g. subsidized
renewables projects excluded)
51
42
36
+2% p.a.
+40%
203020202010
Historical BAU reference case1
SOURCE: Model analysis based on local data, proxies from comparable countries, global data and proxies; Technical Working Groups
MtCO2e
1 “BAU” reference scenario is a basis for assessment of mitigation levers and carbon finance negotiations. It is not the most likely scenario, but a
theoretical case assuming a country acts in its economic self-interest and does not include additional action for avoiding GHG emissions (e.g.
renewables only added if cost competitive with fossils)
GHG EMISSIONS BASELINE (BAU)2

11. | 10
Average cost of abatement/ton: ~ USD -40
Share of abatement coming at negative cost: ~ 60%
Efficiency code for new commercial buildings
Energy efficiency in other industries
More efficient light-duty vehicles
Switch incandescent light bulbs to LEDs
More efficient residential electronics
Replace fuel oil plants with natural gas
More efficient residential appliances
Domestic bioethanol from sugarcane
Reduce off-grid generation
Clinker substitution by fly ash et al
Fuel substitution by bio waste
Hydro power
Wind power
Import bioethanol to reach E50
Capture landfill gas for direct use
Efficiency code for new residential buildings
Solar PV
Recycling new waste
Increase share of vehicles running on CNG
Domestic biodiesel from Jatropha
Importing biodiesel to reach B68
Rice management shallow flooding
Avoided deforestation from illegal infrastructure develop
Forest fire prevention and reduction
Avoided deforestation from illegal charcoal logging
Pastureland afforestation
Degraded forest reforestation
Power from organic waste
using anaerobic digestion
Power from biomass
Capture landfill gas
for power generation
Waste incineration for power generation
Bus rapid transit (BRTs)
More Metro lines
5
-200
-250
-300
-350
Abatement potential
MtCO2e
34
0
150
1,600
15
100
2510
300
50
-50
200
20
-100
-150
Cost
USD/tCO2e
250
30
Transport
Quick wins
Power & energy efficiency Forestry
Other
~ 85% of the DR’s abatement potential lies in 3 sectors and quick wins,
with ~ 60% of potential achievable at net financial benefits to the DR
SOURCE: Analysis by the Consejo Nacional para el Cambio Climático y el Mecanismo de Desarrollo Limpio
ABATEMENT POTENTIAL AND COST CURVE3

12. | 11
Power, transport and forestry were identified as the priority sectors
of the CCDP
Starting point: top-down
Assessment of 1st SteerCo
Criteria for prioritization
Key sectors
of the CCDP
▪ Power
▪ Transport
▪ Forestry
PRIORITIZE SECTORS AND LEVERS4

13. | 12
~ 50.000 ~ 1.500 ~ 400 - 9 million barrels
~ 30.000 ~ 1.500 ~ 300 - 9 million barrels
~ 15.000 ~ 20 ~ 50 X
~ 24.000 ~120 ~ 50 - 1 million barrels
CCDP for priority sectors with potential to create > 100,000 jobs
and free up household budgets by more than USD 3 bn in 2030
Priority levers
Employment,
# new permanent jobs
Disposable income,
extra annual USDm
FDI1 inflows,
USDm, annual Ø
Trade balance im-
provement, mBOE
Economic indicators
2030, stand-alone project based assessment, primary effects only
PrioritySectors
Power
▪ Increased energy efficiency
▪ Renewables
▪ Reduced auto generation
▪ Early oil to gas shifts
Transport
▪ Fuel efficiency gains
▪ Shifts to Gas (LPG/CNG)
▪ Biofuels
▪ Public transportation
Forestry
▪ A/R programs
▪ Reduced deforestation
▪ Reduced forest fires
Quickwins
▪ Agriculture
▪ Waste
▪ Cement
Suma:
~ 120.000 jobs
+ temp jobs
(tbc)
~ 3 billion USD
or
~ 260 USD p.p
~ 800 MUSD
~ -20 million
barrels or 2-3
BUSD
(1) Foreign Direct Investment
ECONOMIC IMPACT5
SOURCE: Ministry of Economy, Planning, and Development; Team analysis

14. | 13
The DR needs to have 5 central success factors in place to
achieve a high-impact, transformative CCDP
BASED ON INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE
B
Effective institutions and systems
C
Comprehensive
capabilities
A
D
Smart financing
E
Stakeholder mobilization
High-level commitment and leadership
FINANCING AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE6

15. | 14
Leadership:
Enrique Ramírez, CNE
Celso Marranzini, CDEEE
Leadership:
Diandino Peña, OPRET
Active co-creation:
Milciades Péres, FONDET
Leonel Carasco, OPRET
Francisco Gómez, CNE
Leadership:
Omar Ramirez, CNCCyDL
Active co-creation:
Roberto Herrera, RENAEPA
Julio Llibre, ASONAHORES
Yulissa Baez, ADOCEM
Leadership:
Jaime David Fernández
Mirabal, MMA
Leadership of
Economic Integration :
Temístocles Montás, MEPyD
10 Core elements of sectoral
action plans
1) Formulate CCDP aspiration
2) Prioritize major programs and
initiatives
3) Define implementation road maps
4) Learn from international
experience and policy options
5) Outline pilots to test impact and
feasibility
6) Build underlying institutional
capabilities
7) Overcome hurdles and risks
8) Identify required policies and
policy changes
9) Indentify required financing and
financing options
10) Plan stakeholder outreach and
management
ENERGY SECTOR TRANSPORT SECTOR
QUICK-WINSFORESTRY SECTOR
Focus of discussion during
3rd meeting of Steering Committee
SECTOR ACTION PLANS7
Moving the strategy forward, government agencies of the priority sectors
have developed concrete action plans around selected measures