Climate change is driven primarily by increased greenhouse gas levels from human activity like burning fossil fuels. The planet has warmed around 1.2°C since pre-industrial times with most of the warming occurring in recent decades. Impacts are already occurring like more extreme weather, sea level rise, and wildlife displacement. Urgent action is needed to transition away from fossil fuels and reduce emissions to limit further global temperature increase and associated consequences.

1. Featuredarticle Page semi-protectedListentothisarticle
Climate change
From Wikipedia,the free encyclopedia
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"Global warming"redirectshere.Forotheruses,see Climate change (disambiguation),andGlobal
warming(disambiguation).Thisarticleisaboutcontemporaryclimate change.Forhistoricalclimate
trends,see Climate variabilityandchange.
The global map showsseatemperature risesof 0.5to 1 degree Celsius;landtemperature risesof 1 to 2
degree Celsius;andArctictemperature risesof upto4 degreesCelsius.
Average surface airtemperaturesfrom2011 to 2021 comparedto the 1956–1976 average
The graph from 1880 to 2020 showsnatural driversexhibitingfluctuationsof about0.3 degreesCelsius.
Human driverssteadilyincreaseby0.3 degreesover100 years to1980, thensteeplyby0.8 degrees
more overthe past40 years.
Change inaverage surface air temperature since the industrialrevolution,plusdriversforthatchange.
Human activityhascausedincreasedtemperatures,withnatural forcesaddingsome variability.[1]
Contemporaryclimate change includesbothglobal warminganditsimpactsonEarth's weather
patterns.There have beenpreviousperiodsof climate change,butthe currentchangesare distinctly
more rapidand not due to natural causes.[2] Instead,theyare causedbythe emissionof greenhouse
gases,mostlycarbondioxide (CO2) andmethane.Burningfossil fuelsforenergyuse createsmostof
these emissions.Agriculture,steelmaking,cementproduction,andforestlossare additional sources.[3]
Greenhouse gasesare transparenttosunlight,allowingitthroughtoheatthe Earth's surface.Whenthe
Earth emitsthatheat as infraredradiationthe gasesabsorbit,trappingthe heatnearthe Earth's
surface.Asthe planetheatsupit causeschangeslike the lossof sunlight-reflectingsnow cover,
amplifyingglobal warming.[4]
On land,temperatureshave risenabouttwice asfastas the global average.Desertsare expanding,while
heatwavesand wildfiresare becomingmore common.[5] Increasedwarminginthe Arctichas
contributedtomeltingpermafrost,glacial retreatandseaice loss.[6] Highertemperaturesare also
causingmore intense stormsandotherweatherextremes.[7] Rapidenvironmental change in
mountains,coral reefs,andthe Arcticisforcingmany speciestorelocate orbecome extinct.[8] Climate
change threatenspeople withfoodandwaterscarcity,increasedflooding,extreme heat,more disease,
and economicloss.Humanmigrationandconflict canbe a result.[9] The WorldHealthOrganization
(WHO) callsclimate change the greatestthreatto global healthinthe 21st century.[10] Evenif effortsto
minimise future warmingare successful,some effectswillcontinueforcenturies.These includesealevel
rise,andwarmer,more acidicoceans.[11]

2. Many of these impactsare alreadyfeltatthe current 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) level of warming.Additional
warmingwill increase these impactsandmaytriggertippingpoints,suchasthe meltingof the
Greenland ice sheet.[12] Underthe 2015 ParisAgreement,nationscollectivelyagreedtokeepwarming
"well under2°C". However,withpledgesmade underthe Agreement,globalwarmingwouldstillreach
about2.7 °C (4.9 °F) by the endof the century.[13] Limitingwarmingto1.5 °C will require halving
emissionsby2030 and achievingnet-zeroemissionsby2050.[14]
Bobcat Fire inMonrovia,CA,September10,2020
Bleachedcolonyof Acroporacoral
In May 2021, waterlevelsof Lake Oroville droppedto38% of capacity.
Some effectsof climate change,clockwise fromtopleft:Wildfire intensifiedbyheatanddrought,
worseningdroughtscompromisingwatersupplies,andbleachingof coral causedbyoceanacidification
and heating.
Making deepcutsinemissionswill require switchingawayfromburningfossil fuelsandtowardsusing
electricitygeneratedfromlow-carbonsources.Thisincludesphasingoutcoal-firedpowerplants,vastly
increasinguse of wind,solar,andothertypesof renewableenergy,switchingtoelectricvehicles,
switchingtoheatpumpsinbuildings,andtakingmeasurestoconserve energy.[15][16] Carboncanalso
be removedfromthe atmosphere,forinstance byincreasingforestcover.[17] While communitiesmay
adapt to climate change througheffortslikebettercoastline protection,theycannotavertthe riskof
severe,widespread,andpermanentimpacts.[18]
Contents
1 Terminology
2 Observedtemperature rise
2.1 Regional aspectstotemperature rises
3 Driversof recenttemperature rise
3.1 Greenhouse gases
3.2 Aerosolsandclouds
3.3 Land surface changes
3.4 Solarand volcanicactivity
3.5 Climate change feedback
4 Future warmingandthe carbon budget

3. 5 Impacts
5.1 Physical environment
5.1.1 Tippingpointsandlong-termimpacts
5.2 Nature and wildlife
5.3 Humans
5.3.1 Foodand health
5.3.2 Livelihoods
6 Responses
6.1 Mitigation
6.1.1 Cleanenergy
6.1.2 Energyefficiency
6.1.3 Agriculture andindustry
6.1.4 Carbonsequestration
6.2 Adaptation
7 Policiesandpolitics
7.1 Policyoptions
7.2 International climateagreements
7.3 National responses
8 Scientificconsensusandsociety
8.1 Scientificconsensus
8.2 Denial andmisinformation
8.3 Publicawarenessandopinion
8.3.1 Protestsandlawsuits
9 Discovery
10 See also
11 References
11.1 Explanatorynotes
11.2 Notes
11.3 Sources

4. 11.3.1 IPCCreports
11.3.2 Otherpeer-reviewedsources
11.3.3 Books,reportsand legal documents
11.3.4 Non-technical sources
12 External links
Terminology
Climate change isdrivenbyrisinggreenhouse gaslevelsinthe atmosphere.This strengthensthe
greenhouse effectwhichtrapsheatinEarth's climate system.[19]
Before the 1980s, it wasunclearwhetherwarmingbyincreasedgreenhouse gaseswoulddominate
aerosol-inducedcooling.Scientiststhenoftenusedthe terminadvertentclimate modificationtoreferto
the humanimpact onthe climate.Inthe 1980s, the termsglobal warmingandclimate change were
popularised.The formerrefersonlytoincreasedsurface warming,the latterdescribesthe full effectof
greenhouse gasesonthe climate.[20] Global warmingbecame the mostpopulartermafterNASA
climate scientistJamesHansenuseditinhis1988 testimonyinthe U.S.Senate.[21] Inthe 2000s, the
termclimate change increasedinpopularity.[22] Global warmingusuallyreferstohuman-induced
warmingof the Earth system,whereasclimate change canrefertonatural or anthropogenicchange.[23]
The two termsare oftenusedinterchangeably.[24]
Variousscientists,politiciansandmediafigureshave adoptedthe termsclimatecrisisorclimate
emergencytotalkaboutclimate change,andglobal heatinginsteadof global warming.[25] The policy
editor-in-chief of The Guardiansaidtheyincludedthislanguage intheireditorial guidelines"toensure
that we are beingscientificallyprecise,while alsocommunicatingclearlywithreadersonthisvery
importantissue".[26] In2019, OxfordLanguageschose climate emergencyasitswordof the year,
definingitas"a situationinwhichurgentactionisrequiredtoreduce orhaltclimate change andavoid
potentiallyirreversibleenvironmental damage resultingfromit".[27][28]
Observedtemperature rise
Main articles:Temperature recordof the last2,000 yearsand Instrumental temperature record
Global surface temperature reconstructionoverthe last2000 yearsusingproxydatafrom tree rings,
corals,and ice cores inblue.[29] Directlyobserveddataisinred.[30]
Multiple independentinstrumentaldatasetsshow thatthe climate systemiswarming.[31] The 2011–
2020 decade warmedtoan average 1.09 °C [0.95–1.20 °C] comparedto the pre-industrialbaseline
(1850–1900).[32] Surface temperaturesare risingbyabout0.2 °C per decade,[33] with2020 reachinga

5. temperature of 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era.[34] Since 1950, the numberof colddays and nights
has decreased,andthe numberof warmdaysand nightshas increased.[35]
There waslittle netwarmingbetweenthe 18thcenturyand the mid-19thcentury.Climate information
for that periodcomesfromclimate proxies,suchastreesandice cores.[36] Thermometerrecordsbegan
to provide global coverage around1850.[37] Historical patternsof warmingandcooling,like the
Medieval ClimateAnomalyandthe Little Ice Age,didnotoccur at the same time acrossdifferent
regions.Temperaturesmayhave reached ashighas those of the late-20thcenturyin a limitedsetof
regions.[38] There have beenprehistorical episodesof global warming,suchasthe Paleocene–Eocene
Thermal Maximum.[39] However,the modernobservedrise intemperature andCO2concentrations has
beensorapidthat evenabruptgeophysical eventsinEarth'shistorydonot approachcurrent rates.[40]
Evidence of warmingfromairtemperature measurementsare reinforcedwithawide range of other
observations.[41][42] There hasbeenanincrease in the frequencyandintensityof heavyprecipitation,
meltingof snowandlandice,and increasedatmospherichumidity.[43] Floraandfaunaare also
behavinginamannerconsistentwithwarming;forinstance,plantsare floweringearlierinspring.[44]
Anotherkeyindicatoristhe coolingof the upperatmosphere,whichdemonstratesthatgreenhouse
gasesare trappingheatnearthe Earth's surface andpreventingitfromradiatingintospace.[45]
Regional aspectstotemperature rises
See also:Climate variabilityandchange § Variabilitybetweenregions
Regionsof the worldwarmat differingrates.The patternisindependentof where greenhouse gasesare
emitted,because the gasespersistlongenoughtodiffuse acrossthe planet.Sincethe pre-industrial
period,the average surface temperature overlandregionshasincreasedalmosttwice asfastasthe
global-averagesurface temperature.[46] Thisisbecause of the largerheatcapacity of oceans,and
because oceanslose more heatbyevaporation.[47] The thermal energyinthe global climate systemhas
grownwithonlybrief pausessince atleast1970, and over90% of thisextraenergyhasbeenstoredin
the ocean.[48][49] The rest has heatedthe atmosphere,meltedice,andwarmedthe continents.[50]
The NorthernHemisphere andthe NorthPole have warmedmuchfasterthanthe SouthPole and
SouthernHemisphere.The NorthernHemispherenotonlyhasmuchmore land,but alsomore seasonal
snowcoverand seaice.As these surfacesflipfromreflectingalotof light tobeingdarkafterthe ice has
melted,theystartabsorbingmore heat.[51] Local blackcarbon depositsonsnow andice alsocontribute
to Arctic warming.[52] Arctictemperaturesare increasingatovertwice the rate of the restof the
world.[53] Melting of glaciersandice sheetsinthe Arcticdisruptsoceancirculation,includinga
weakenedGulf Stream, furtherchangingthe climate.[54]
Driversof recenttemperature rise

6. Main article:Attributionof recentclimatechange
Driversof climate change from 1850–1900 to 2010–2019. There wasno significantcontributionfrom
internal variabilityorsolarandvolcanicdrivers.
The climate systemexperiencesvariouscyclesonitsownwhichcan lastfor years(suchas the El Niño–
SouthernOscillation),decadesor evencenturies.[55] Otherchangesare causedbyan imbalance of
energythatis "external"tothe climate system,butnotalwaysexternal tothe Earth.[56] Examplesof
external forcingsinclude changesinthe concentrationsof greenhousegases,solarluminosity,volcanic
eruptions,andvariationsinthe Earth'sorbitaroundthe Sun.[57]
To determine the humancontributiontoclimate change,knowninternalclimate variabilityandnatural
external forcingsneedtobe ruledout.A keyapproach isto determine unique "fingerprints"forall
potential causes,thencompare thesefingerprintswithobservedpatternsof climate change.[58] For
example,solarforcingcanbe ruledoutas a major cause.Itsfingerprintwouldbe warminginthe entire
atmosphere.Yet,only the loweratmosphere haswarmed,consistentwithgreenhouse gasforcing.[59]
Attributionof recentclimate change showsthatthe maindriveriselevatedgreenhouse gases,with
aerosolshavingadampeningeffect.[60]
Greenhouse gases
Main articles:Greenhousegas,Greenhousegasemissions,Greenhouse effect,andCarbondioxide in
Earth's atmosphere
The Earth absorbssunlight,thenradiatesitasheat.Greenhouse gasesinthe atmosphere absorband
reemitinfraredradiation,slowingthe rate atwhichitcan passthroughthe atmosphere andescape into
space.[61] Before the Industrial Revolution,naturally-occurringamountsof greenhousegasescaused
the air near the surface to be about33 °C warmerthanit wouldhave beenintheirabsence.[62][63]
While watervapour(~50%) and clouds(~25%) are the biggestcontributorstothe greenhouseeffect,
theyincrease asa functionof temperature andare therefore feedbacks.Onthe otherhand,
concentrationsof gasessuchas CO2 (~20%), troposphericozone,[64] CFCsandnitrousoxide are not
temperature-dependent,andare therefore external forcings.[65]
CO2 concentrationsoverthe last800,000 yearsas measuredfromice cores(blue/green) anddirectly
(black)
Human activitysince the Industrial Revolution,mainlyextractingandburningfossilfuels(coal,oil,and
natural gas),[66] has increasedthe amountof greenhouse gasesinthe atmosphere,resultingina
radiative imbalance.In2019, the concentrationsof CO2and methane hadincreasedbyabout48% and
160%, respectively,since 1750.[67] These CO2levelsare higherthantheyhave beenatany time during

7. the last 2 millionyears.Concentrationsof methane are farhigherthantheywere overthe last800,000
years.[68]
The Global Carbon ProjectshowshowadditionstoCO2since 1880 have beencausedbydifferent
sourcesrampingupone afteranother.
Global anthropogenicgreenhouse gasemissionsin2019 were equivalentto59 billiontonnesof CO2.Of
these emissions,75%wasCO2, 18% wasmethane,4% was nitrousoxide,and 2% wasfluorinated
gases.[69] CO2 emissionsprimarilycome fromburningfossilfuelstoprovide energyfortransport,
manufacturing,heating,andelectricity.[3] Additional CO2emissionscome fromdeforestationand
industrial processes,whichincludethe CO2releasedbythe chemical reactionsformakingcement,steel,
aluminum,andfertiliser.[70] Methane emissionscome fromlivestock,manure,rice cultivation,landfills,
wastewater,andcoal mining,aswell asoil andgas extraction.[71] Nitrousoxide emissionslargelycome
fromthe microbial decompositionof fertiliser.[72]
Despite the contributionof deforestationtogreenhousegasemissions,the Earth'slandsurface,
particularlyitsforests,remainasignificantcarbonsinkforCO2. Natural processes, suchascarbon
fixationinthe soil andphotosynthesis,more thanoffsetthe greenhouse gascontributionsfrom
deforestation.The land-surface sinkisestimatedtoremove about29% of annual global CO2
emissions.[73] The oceanalsoservesasa significant carbonsinkviaatwo-stepprocess.First,CO2
dissolvesinthe surface water.Afterwards,the ocean'soverturningcirculationdistributesitdeepinto
the ocean's interior,whereitaccumulatesovertime aspartof the carbon cycle.Overthe lasttwo
decades,the world'soceanshave absorbed20 to30% of emittedCO2.[74]
Aerosolsandclouds
Airpollution,inthe formof aerosols,notonlyputsalarge burdenon humanhealth,butalsoaffectsthe
climate ona large scale.[75] From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reductioninthe amountof sunlightreaching
the Earth's surface was observed,aphenomenonpopularlyknownasglobal dimming,[76] typically
attributedtoaerosolsfrombiofuelandfossil fuel burning.[77] Globally,aerosolshave beendeclining
since 1990, meaningthattheyno longermaskgreenhouse gaswarmingasmuch.[78]
Aerosolsscatterandabsorbsolar radiation.Theyalsohave indirecteffectsonthe Earth's radiation
budget.Sulfate aerosolsactas cloudcondensationnuclei andleadtocloudsthat have more and smaller
clouddroplets.These cloudsreflectsolarradiationmore efficientlythancloudswithfewerandlarger
droplets.[79] Theyalsoreduce the growthof raindrops,whichmakescloudsmore reflectivetoincoming
sunlight.[80] Indirecteffectsof aerosolsare the largestuncertaintyinradiative forcing.[81]

8. While aerosolstypicallylimitglobalwarmingbyreflectingsunlight,blackcarboninsootthat fallson
snowor ice can contribute toglobal warming.Notonlydoesthisincrease the absorptionof sunlight,it
alsoincreasesmeltingandsea-levelrise.[82] Limitingnew blackcarbondepositsinthe Arcticcould
reduce global warmingby0.2 °C by 2050.[83]
Land surface changes
The rate of global tree coverlosshasapproximatelydoubled since 2001,to an annual lossapproaching
an area the size of Italy.[84]
Humanschange the Earth's surface mainlytocreate more agricultural land.Today,agriculture takesup
34% of Earth's land area,while 26%is forests,and30% is uninhabitable (glaciers,deserts,etc.).[85] The
amountof forestedlandcontinuestodecrease,whichisthe mainlanduse change that causesglobal
warming.[86] DeforestationreleasesCO2containedintreeswhentheyare destroyed,plusitprevents
those treesfromabsorbing more CO2 inthe future.[87] The maincausesof deforestationare:
permanentland-usechange fromforesttoagricultural landproducingproductssuchasbeef andpalm
oil (27%),loggingtoproduce forestry/forestproducts(26%),shorttermshiftingcultivation(24%),and
wildfires(23%).[88]
Land use changesnot onlyaffectgreenhouse gasemissions.The type of vegetationinaregionaffects
the local temperature.Itimpactshowmuchof the sunlightgetsreflectedbackintospace (albedo),and
howmuch heatis lostbyevaporation.Forinstance,the change froma dark foresttograsslandmakes
the surface lighter,causingittoreflectmore sunlight.Deforestationcanalsoaffecttemperaturesby
modifyingthe release of chemicalcompoundsthatinfluence clouds,andbychangingwindpatterns.[89]
In tropicand temperate areasthe neteffectistoproduce significantwarming,while atlatitudescloser
to the polesa gainof albedo(asforestisreplacedbysnow cover) leadstoa coolingeffect.[89] Globally,
these effectsare estimatedtohave ledtoa slightcooling,dominatedbyanincrease insurface
albedo.[90]
Solarand volcanicactivity
Furtherinformation:Solaractivityandclimate
Physical climate modelsare unable toreproduce the rapidwarmingobservedinrecentdecadeswhen
takingintoaccount onlyvariationsinsolaroutputandvolcanicactivity.[91] Asthe Sunisthe Earth's
primaryenergysource,changesinincomingsunlightdirectlyaffectthe climate system.[81] Solar
irradiance hasbeenmeasured directlybysatellites,[92] andindirectmeasurementsare availablefrom
the early1600s onwards.[81] There hasbeennoupwardtrendin the amountof the Sun'senergy
reachingthe Earth.[93] Furtherevidence forgreenhouse gasescausingglobalwarmingcomesfrom
measurementsthatshowawarmingof the loweratmosphere (the troposphere),coupledwithacooling

9. of the upperatmosphere (the stratosphere).[94] If solarvariationswere responsible forthe observed
warming,the troposphere andstratospherewould bothwarm.[59]
Explosive volcaniceruptionsrepresentthe largestnatural forcingoverthe industrial era.Whenthe
eruptionissufficientlystrong(withsulfurdioxide reachingthe stratosphere),sunlightcanbe partially
blockedfora couple of years. The temperature signal lastsabouttwice aslong.Inthe industrial era,
volcanicactivityhashad negligibleimpactsonglobal temperature trends.[95] Present-dayvolcanicCO2
emissionsare equivalenttolessthan1%of currentanthropogenicCO2emissions.[96]
Climate change feedback
Main articles:Climate change feedbackandClimate sensitivity
Seaice reflects50%to 70% of incomingsolarradiationwhilethe darkoceansurface onlyreflects6%,so
meltingseaice isa self-reinforcingfeedback.[97]
The response of the climate systemtoan initial forcingismodifiedbyfeedbacks:increasedbyself-
reinforcingfeedbacksandreducedbybalancingfeedbacks.[98] The mainreinforcingfeedbacksare the
water-vapourfeedback,the ice–albedofeedback,andthe neteffectof clouds.[99][100] The primary
balancingmechanismisradiativecooling,asEarth's surface givesoff more heattospace inresponse to
risingtemperature.[101] Inadditiontotemperature feedbacks,there are feedbacksinthe carboncycle,
such as the fertilizingeffectof CO2on plantgrowth.[102] Uncertaintyoverfeedbacksisthe major
reasonwhydifferentclimate modelsprojectdifferentmagnitudesof warmingforagivenamountof
emissions.[103]
As the air iswarmedbygreenhouse gases,itcanholdmore moisture.Watervapourisa potent
greenhouse gas,sothisfurtherheatsthe atmosphere.[99] If cloudcoverincreases,more sunlightwill be
reflectedbackintospace,coolingthe planet.If cloudsbecomehigherandthinner,theyactas an
insulator,reflectingheatfrombelowbackdownwardsandwarmingthe planet.[104] The effectof
cloudsisthe largestsource of feedbackuncertainty.[105]
Anothermajorfeedbackisthe reductionof snow coverandseaice in the Arctic,whichreducesthe
reflectivityof the Earth'ssurface.[106] More of the Sun'senergyisnow absorbedinthese regions,
contributingtoamplificationof Arctictemperature changes.[107] Arcticamplificationisalsomelting
permafrost,whichreleasesmethane andCO2intothe atmosphere.[108] Climate change canalsocause
methane releasesfromwetlands,marinesystems,andfreshwatersystems.[109] Overall,climate
feedbacksare expectedtobecome increasinglypositive.[110]

10. Aroundhalf of human-causedCO2emissionshave beenabsorbedbylandplantsandbythe
oceans.[111] On land,elevatedCO2and an extendedgrowingseasonhave stimulatedplantgrowth.
Climate change increasesdroughtsandheatwavesthatinhibitplantgrowth,whichmakesituncertain
whetherthiscarbonsinkwill continuetogrow inthe future.[112] Soilscontainlarge quantitiesof
carbon and mayrelease some whentheyheatup.[113] Asmore CO2 and heatare absorbedbythe
ocean,it acidifies,itscirculationchangesandphytoplanktontakesuplesscarbon,decreasingthe rate at
whichthe oceanabsorbsatmosphericcarbon.[114] Overall,athigherCO2 concentrationsthe Earthwill
absorba reducedfractionof ouremissions.[115]
Future warmingandthe carbon budget
Furtherinformation:Carbonbudget,Climate model, andClimate change scenario
Projectedglobal surface temperaturechangesrelative to1850–1900, basedon CMIP6 multi-model
meanchanges.
A climate model isarepresentationof the physical,chemical,andbiological processesthataffectthe
climate system.[116] Modelsare usedto calculate the degree of warmingfuture emissionswill cause
whenaccountingforthe strengthof climate feedbacks.[117][118] Modelsalsoinclude natural processes
like changesinthe Earth's orbit,historical changesinthe Sun's activity,andvolcanicforcing.[119] In
additiontoestimatingfuture temperatures,theyreproduce andpredictthe circulationof the oceans,
the annual cycle of the seasons,andthe flowsof carbonbetweenthe landsurface andthe
atmosphere.[120]
The physical realismof modelsistestedbyexaminingtheirabilitytosimulate contemporaryorpast
climates.[121] Pastmodelshave underestimatedthe rate of Arcticshrinkage[122] andunderestimated
the rate of precipitationincrease.[123] Sealevel rise since1990 wasunderestimatedinoldermodels,
but more recentmodelsagree wellwithobservations.[124] The 2017 UnitedStates-publishedNational
Climate Assessmentnotesthat"climate modelsmaystill be underestimatingormissingrelevant
feedbackprocesses".[125]
A subsetof climate modelsaddsocietal factorstoasimple physical climatemodel.These models
simulate howpopulation,economicgrowth,andenergyuse affect –and interactwith – the physical
climate.Withthisinformation,thesemodelscanproduce scenariosof future greenhouse gasemissions.
Thisis thenusedas inputforphysical climate modelsandcarboncycle modelstopredicthow
atmosphericconcentrationsof greenhouse gasesmightchange inthe future.[126][127] Dependingon
the socioeconomicscenarioandthe mitigationscenario,modelsproduce atmosphericCO2
concentrationsthatrange widelybetween380 and 1400 ppm.[128]

11. The IPCC SixthAssessmentReportprojectsthatglobal warmingisverylikelytoreach1.0 °C to 1.8 °C by
the late 21st centuryunderthe verylowGHG emissionsscenario.Inanintermediate scenarioglobal
warmingwouldreach2.1 °C to 3.5 °C,and 3.3 °C to 5.7 °C underthe veryhighGHG emissions
scenario.[129] These projectionsare basedonclimate modelsincombinationwithobservations.[130]
The remainingcarbonbudgetisdeterminedbymodellingthe carboncycle andthe climate sensitivityto
greenhouse gases.[131] Accordingtothe IPCC,global warmingcanbe keptbelow 1.5 °C witha two-
thirdschance if emissionsafter2018 do not exceed420 or 570 gigatonnesof CO2.[a] Thiscorresponds
to 10 to 13 yearsof currentemissions.There are highuncertaintiesaboutthe budget.Forinstance,it
may be 100 gigatonnesof CO2smallerdue tomethane release frompermafrostandwetlands.[133]
However,itisclearthat fossil fuel resourcesare tooabundantforshortagesto be reliedontolimit
carbon emissionsinthe 21stcentury.[134]
Impacts
Main article:Effectsof climate change
The sixthIPCCAssessmentReportprojects changesinaverage soil moisture thatcandisruptagriculture
and ecosystems.A reductioninsoil moisture byone standarddeviationmeansthataverage soil
moisture will approximatelymatchthe ninthdriestyearbetween1850 and 1900 at that location.
Physical environment
The environmentaleffectsof climate change are broadandfar-reaching,affectingoceans,ice,and
weather.Changesmayoccurgraduallyor rapidly.Evidenceforthese effectscomesfromstudying
climate change inthe past,from modelling, andfrommodernobservations.[135] Since the 1950s,
droughtsand heatwaveshave appearedsimultaneouslywithincreasingfrequency.[136] Extremelywet
or dry eventswithinthe monsoonperiodhave increasedinIndiaandEast Asia.[137] The rainfall rate
and intensityof hurricanesandtyphoonsislikelyincreasing.[7] Frequencyof tropical cycloneshasnot
increasedasa resultof climate change.[138] However,astudyreview article publishedin2021 in
Nature Geoscience concludedthatthe geographicrange of tropical cycloneswill probablyexpand
polewardinresponse toclimate warmingof the Hadleycirculation.[139]
Historical sealevel reconstructionandprojectionsupto2100 publishedin2017 bythe U.S. Global
Change ResearchProgram[140]
Global sealevel isrisingasa consequence of glacial melt,meltof the ice sheetsinGreenlandand
Antarctica,and thermal expansion.Between1993 and 2020, the rise increasedovertime,averaging3.3
± 0.3 mmper year.[141] Overthe 21st century,the IPCCprojects that ina veryhighemissionsscenario
the sea level couldrise by61–110 cm.[142] Increasedoceanwarmthisunderminingandthreateningto

12. unplugAntarcticglacieroutlets,riskingalarge meltof the ice sheet[143] and the possibilityof a2-meter
sealevel rise by2100 underhighemissions.[144]
Climate change hasledtodecadesof shrinkingandthinningof the Arcticseaice.[145] While ice-free
summersare expectedtobe rare at 1.5 °C degreesof warming,theyare settooccur once everythree to
tenyearsat a warminglevel of 2°C.[146] HigheratmosphericCO2concentrationshave ledtochangesin
oceanchemistry.Anincrease indissolvedCO2iscausingoceanstoacidify.[147] Inaddition,oxygen
levelsare decreasingasoxygenislesssoluble inwarmerwater.[148] Deadzonesinthe ocean,regions
withverylittle oxygen,are expandingtoo.[149]
Tippingpointsandlong-termimpacts
The greaterthe amountof global warming,the greaterthe riskof passingthrough‘tippingpoints’,
thresholdsbeyondwhichcertainimpactscannolongerbe avoidedevenif temperaturesare
reduced.[150] Anexample isthe collapseof WestAntarcticandGreenlandice sheets,wherea
temperature rise of 1.5 to 2 °C maycommitthe ice sheetstomelt,althoughthe time scale of meltis
uncertainanddependsonfuture warming.[151][152] Some large-scale changescouldoccurovera short
time period,suchasa collapse of certainoceancurrents.Of particularconcernisa shutdownof the
AtlanticMeridional OverturningCirculation,[153] whichwouldtriggermajorclimate changesinthe
NorthAtlantic,Europe,andNorthAmerica.[154]
The long-termeffectsof climate change includefurtherice melt,oceanwarming,sealevel rise,and
oceanacidification.[155] Onthe timescale of centuriestomillennia,the magnitudeof climate change
will be determinedprimarilybyanthropogenicCO2emissions.Thisisdue toCO2's longatmospheric
lifetime.[156] OceanicCO2uptake isslow enoughthatocean acidificationwillcontinueforhundreds to
thousandsof years.[157] These emissionsare estimatedtohave prolongedthe currentinterglacial
periodbyat least100,000 years.[158] Sealevel rise will continue overmanycenturies,withan
estimatedrise of 2.3 metresperdegree Celsius(4.2ft/°F) after2000 years.[159]
Nature and wildlife
Main article:Climate change andecosystems
Recentwarminghasdrivenmanyterrestrial andfreshwaterspeciespolewardandtowardshigher
altitudes.[160] HigheratmosphericCO2levelsandanextendedgrowingseasonhave resultedinglobal
greening.However,heatwavesanddroughthave reducedecosystemproductivityinsome regions.The
future balance of these opposingeffectsisunclear.[161] Climate change hascontributedtothe
expansionof drierclimate zones, suchasthe expansionof desertsinthe subtropics.[162] The size and
speedof global warmingismakingabruptchangesinecosystemsmore likely.[163] Overall,itisexpected
that climate change will resultinthe extinctionof manyspecies.[164]

13. The oceans have heatedmore slowlythanthe land,butplantsandanimalsinthe oceanhave migrated
towardsthe colderpolesfasterthanspeciesonland.[165] Justas on land,heatwavesinthe oceanoccur
more frequentlydue toclimate change,harmingawide range of organismssuchas corals,kelp,and
seabirds.[166] Oceanacidificationmakesitharderfororganismssuchas mussels,barnaclesandcorals
to produce shellsandskeletons;andheatwaveshave bleachedcoral reefs.[167] Harmful algal blooms
enhancedby climate change andeutrophicationloweroxygenlevels,disruptfoodwebsandcause great
lossof marine life.[168] Coastal ecosystemsare underparticularstress.Almosthalf of global wetlands
have disappeareddue toclimate change andotherhumanimpacts.[169]
Climate change impactsonthe environment
Underwaterphotographof branchingcoral that isbleachedwhite
Ecological collapse.Bleachinghasdamagedthe GreatBarrierReef andthreatensreefsworldwide.[170]
Photographof eveninginavalleysettlement.The skylineinthe hillsbeyondislitupredfromthe fires.
Extreme weather.Droughtandhightemperaturesworsenedthe 2020 bushfiresinAustralia.[171]
The greenlandscape isinterruptedbyahuge muddyscar where the groundhas subsided.
Arctic warming.Permafrostthawsundermineinfrastructure andreleasemethane,agreenhouse
gas.[108]
An emaciatedpolarbearstandsatopthe remainsof a meltingice floe.
Habitatdestruction.Manyarctic animalsrelyonseaice,whichhas beendisappearinginawarming
Arctic.[172]
Photographof a large area of forest.The greentreesare interspersedwithlarge patchesof damagedor
deadtreesturningpurple-brownandlightred.
Pestpropagation.Mildwintersallowmore pine beetlestosurvive tokill large swathsof forest.[173]

14. Humans
Main article:Effectsof climate change
Furtherinformation:Effectsof climate change onhumanhealth,Climatesecurity,Economicsof climate
change,and Effectsof climate change onagriculture
The IPCC Sixth AssessmentReport(2021) projectsthatextreme weatherwill be progressivelymore
commonas the Earth warms.[174]
The effectsof climate change onhumanshave beenobservedworldwide.Theyare mostlydue to
warmingandshiftsinprecipitation.Impactscan now be observedonall continentsandocean
regions,[175] withlow-latitude,lessdevelopedareasfacingthe greatestrisk.[176] Continuedwarming
has potentially“severe,pervasive andirreversibleimpacts”forpeople andecosystems.[177] The risks
are unevenlydistributed,butare generallygreaterfordisadvantagedpeople indevelopingand
developedcountries.[178]
Foodand health
The WHO has classifiedclimatechange asthe greatestthreatto global healthinthe 21st century.[179]
Extreme weatherleadstoinjuryandlossof life,[180] andcrop failurestoundernutrition.[181] Various
infectiousdiseasesare more easilytransmittedinawarmerclimate,suchasdengue feverand
malaria.[182] Young childrenare the mostvulnerabletofoodshortages.Both childrenandolderpeople
are vulnerabletoextreme heat.[183] The WorldHealthOrganization(WHO) hasestimatedthatbetween
2030 and 2050, climate change wouldcause around250,000 additional deathsperyear.Theyassessed
deathsfromheatexposure inelderlypeople,increasesindiarrhea,malaria,dengue,coastal flooding,
and childhoodundernutrition.[184] Over500,000 more adultdeathsare projectedyearlyby2050 due to
reductionsinfoodavailabilityandquality.[185]
Climate change isaffectingfoodsecurity.Ithascausedreductioninglobal yieldsof maize,wheat,and
soybeansbetween1981 and 2010.[186] Future warmingcouldfurtherreduce global yieldsof major
crops.[187] Crop productionwill probablybe negativelyaffectedinlow-latitude countries,while effects
at northernlatitudesmaybe positiveornegative.[188] Upto an additional 183millionpeople
worldwide,particularlythose withlowerincomes,are atriskof hungerasa consequence of these
impacts.[189] Climate change alsoimpactsfishpopulations.Globally,lesswillbe available tobe
fished.[190] Regionsdependentonglacierwater,regionsthatare alreadydry,andsmall islandshave a
higherriskof waterstressdue to climate change.[191]
Livelihoods
Economicdamagesdue to climate change maybe severe andthere isa chance of disastrous
consequences.[192] Climate change haslikelyalreadyincreasedglobaleconomicinequality,andthis

15. trendisprojectedtocontinue.[193] Most of the severe impactsare expectedinsub-SaharanAfrica,
where mostof the local inhabitantsare dependentuponnatural andagricultural resources[194],and
South-EastAsia.[195] The WorldBank estimatesthatclimate change coulddrive over120 millionpeople
intopovertyby2030.[196]
Currentinequalitiesbasedonwealthandsocial statushave worseneddue toclimate change.[197]
Major difficultiesinmitigating,adapting,andrecoveringtoclimate shocksare facedbymarginalized
people whohave lesscontrol overresources.[198][194] Anexpertelicitationconcludedthatthe role of
climate change inarmedconflicthasbeensmall comparedtofactorssuch as socio-economicinequality
and state capabilities.[199]
Low-lyingislandsandcoastal communitiesare threatenedbysealevel rise,whichmakesfloodingmore
common.Sometimes,landispermanentlylosttothe sea.[200] Thiscouldleadtostatelessnessfor
people inislandnations,suchasthe MaldivesandTuvalu.[201] In some regions,the rise intemperature
and humiditymaybe toosevere forhumanstoadapt to.[202] Withworst-case climate change,models
projectthat almostone-thirdof humanitymightliveinextremelyhotanduninhabitable climates,similar
to the current climate foundinthe Sahara.[203] These factorscan drive environmental migration, both
withinandbetweencountries.[9] More peopleare expectedtobe displacedbecauseof sealevel rise,
extreme weatherandconflictfromincreasedcompetitionovernatural resources.Climate change may
alsoincrease vulnerability,leadingto"trappedpopulations"whoare notable tomove due to a lack of
resources.[204]
Climate change impactsonpeople
Environmental migration.Sparserrainfall leadstodesertificationthatharmsagriculture andcandisplace
populations.Shown:Telly,Mali (2008).[205]
Agricultural changes.Droughts,risingtemperatures,andextreme weathernegativelyimpactagriculture.
Shown:Texas,US (2013).[206]

16. Tidal flooding.Sea-level rise increasesfloodinginlow-lyingcoastal regions.Shown:Venice,Italy
(2004).[207]
Storm intensification.BangladeshafterCyclone Sidr(2007) isan example of catastrophicfloodingfrom
increasedrainfall.[208]
Heat wave intensification.Eventslikethe June 2019 Europeanheatwave are becomingmore
common.[209]
Responses
Mitigation
Main article:Climate change mitigation
Scenariosof global greenhouse gasemissions.If all countriesachieve theircurrentParisAgreement
pledges,average warmingby2100 wouldstill significantlyexceedthe maximum2°C target setby the
Agreement.
Climate change canbe mitigatedbyreducinggreenhouse gasemissionsandbyenhancingsinksthat
absorbgreenhouse gasesfromthe atmosphere.[210] Inorderto limitglobal warmingtolessthan1.5 °C
witha highlikelihoodof success,globalgreenhousegasemissionsneedstobe net-zeroby2050, or by
2070 witha 2 °C target.[133] Thisrequiresfar-reaching,systemicchangesonan unprecedentedscale in
energy,land,cities,transport,buildings,andindustry.[211] The UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
estimatesthatcountriesneedtotriple theirpledgesunderthe ParisAgreementwithinthe nextdecade
to limitglobal warmingto2 °C. Anevengreaterlevel of reductionisrequiredtomeetthe 1.5 °C
goal.[212] With pledgesmade underthe Agreementasof October2021, global warmingwouldstillhave
a 66% chance of reachingabout2.7 °C (range:2.2–3.2 °C) by the endof the century.[13]
Althoughthere isnosingle pathwaytolimitglobal warmingto1.5 or 2 °C,[213] most scenariosand
strategiessee amajorincrease inthe use of renewable energyincombinationwithincreasedenergy
efficiencymeasurestogenerate the neededgreenhouse gasreductions.[214] To reduce pressureson
ecosystemsandenhance theircarbonsequestrationcapabilities,changeswouldalsobe necessaryin

17. agriculture andforestry,[215] suchas preventingdeforestationandrestoringnatural ecosystemsby
reforestation.[216]
Otherapproachesto mitigatingclimatechange have ahigherlevel of risk.Scenariosthatlimitglobal
warmingto 1.5 °C typicallyprojectthe large-scaleuse of carbondioxide removal methodsoverthe 21st
century.[217] There are concerns,though,aboutover-relianceonthese technologies,and
environmental impacts.[218] Solarradiationmanagement(SRM) isalso a possible supplementtodeep
reductionsinemissions.However,SRMwouldraise significantethicalandlegal issues,andthe risksare
poorlyunderstood.[219]
Cleanenergy
Main articles:SustainableenergyandSustainabletransport
Coal,oil,andnatural gas remainthe primaryglobal energysourcesevenasrenewableshave begun
rapidlyincreasing.[220]
Economicsectorswithmore greenhouse gascontributionshave agreaterstake inclimate change
policies.
Renewableenergyiskeytolimitingclimatechange.[221] Fossil fuelsaccountedfor80% of the world's
energyin2018. The remainingshare wassplitbetweennuclearpowerandrenewables(including
hydropower,bioenergy,windandsolarpowerandgeothermal energy).[222] Thatmix is projectedto
change significantlyoverthe next30years.[214] Solarpanelsandonshore windare now amongthe
cheapestformsof addingnewpowergenerationcapacityinmanylocations.[223] Renewables
represented75%of all newelectricitygenerationinstalledin2019, nearlyall solarand wind.[224] Other
formsof cleanenergy,suchasnuclearand hydropower,currentlyhave alargershare of the energy
supply.However,theirfuture growthforecastsappearlimitedincomparison.[225]
To achieve carbonneutralityby2050, renewableenergywouldbecomethe dominantformof electricity
generation,risingto85% or more by2050 in some scenarios.Investmentincoal wouldbe eliminated
and coal use nearlyphasedoutby 2050.[226][227]
Electricitywouldalsoneedtobecome the mainenergysource forheatingandtransport.[228] In
transport,emissionscanbe reducedfastbya switchto electricvehicles.[229] Publictransportandactive
transport(cyclingandwalking) alsoproduce lessCO2.[230] Forshippingandflying,low-carbonfuelscan
be usedto reduce emissions.[229] Heatingwouldbe increasinglydecarbonisedwithtechnologieslike
heatpumps.[231]

18. There are obstaclestothe continuedrapidgrowthof cleanenergy,includingrenewables.Forwindand
solar,there are environmentalandlanduse concernsfornew projects.[232] Windandsolar also
produce energyintermittentlyandwithseasonalvariability.Traditionally,hydrodamswithreservoirs
and conventionalpowerplantshave beenusedwhenvariableenergyproductionislow.Goingforward,
batterystorage can be expanded,energydemandandsupplycanbe matched,andlong-distance
transmissioncansmoothvariabilityof renewableoutputs.[221] Bioenergyisoftennotcarbon-neutral
and mayhave negative consequencesforfood security.[233] The growthof nuclearpoweris
constrainedbycontroversyaroundnuclearwaste,nuclearweaponproliferation,and
accidents.[234][235] Hydropowergrowthislimitedbythe factthatthe bestsiteshave beendeveloped,
and newprojectsare confrontingincreasedsocialandenvironmental concerns.[236]
Low-carbonenergyimproveshumanhealthbyminimisingclimatechange.Italsohasthe near-term
benefitof reducingairpollutiondeaths,[237] whichwere estimatedat7 millionannuallyin2016.[238]
Meetingthe ParisAgreementgoalsthatlimitwarmingtoa 2 °C increase couldsave abouta millionof
those livesperyearby2050, whereaslimitingglobal warmingto1.5 °C couldsave millionsand
simultaneouslyincreaseenergysecurityandreduce poverty.[239]
Energyefficiency
See also:Efficientenergyuse
Reducingenergydemandisanothermajoraspectof reducingemissions.[240] If lessenergyisneeded,
there ismore flexibilityforcleanenergydevelopment.Italsomakesiteasiertomanage the electricity
grid,and minimisescarbon-intensive infrastructuredevelopment.[241] Majorincreasesinenergy
efficiencyinvestmentwill be requiredtoachieve climate goals,comparable tothe levelof investmentin
renewable energy.[242] Several COVID-19relatedchangesinenergyuse patterns,energyefficiency
investments,andfundinghave made forecastsforthisdecade more difficultanduncertain.[243]
Strategiestoreduce energydemandvarybysector.Intransport,passengersandfreightcanswitchto
more efficienttravel modes,suchasbusesand trains,or use electricvehicles.[244] Industrialstrategies
to reduce energydemandinclude improvingheatingsystemsandmotors,designinglessenergy-
intensiveproducts,andincreasingproductlifetimes.[245] Inthe buildingsectorthe focusisonbetter
designof newbuildings,andhigherlevelsof energyefficiencyinretrofitting.[246] The use of
technologieslikeheatpumpscanalsoincrease buildingenergyefficiency.[247]
Agriculture andindustry
See also:Sustainable agriculture andGreenindustrial policy

19. Agriculture andforestryface atriple challenge of limitinggreenhouse gasemissions,preventingthe
furtherconversionof foreststoagricultural land,andmeetingincreasesinworldfooddemand.[248] A
setof actionscouldreduce agriculture andforestry-basedemissionsbytwothirdsfrom2010 levels.
These include reducinggrowthindemandforfoodandotheragricultural products,increasingland
productivity,protectingandrestoringforests,and reducinggreenhousegasemissionsfromagricultural
production.[249]
On the demandside,akeycomponentof reducingemissionsisshiftingpeople towardsplant-based
diets.[250] Eliminatingthe productionof livestockformeatanddairywouldeliminateabout3/4thsof all
emissionsfromagriculture andotherlanduse.[251] Livestockalsooccupy37% of ice-free landareaon
Earth and consume feedfromthe 12% of land areausedfor crops,drivingdeforestationandland
degradation.[252]
Steel andcementproductionare responsibleforabout13% of industrial CO2emissions.Inthese
industries,carbon-intensive materialssuchascoke and lime playanintegral role inthe production,so
that reducingCO2 emissionsrequiresresearchintoalternative chemistries.[253]
Carbonsequestration
Main articles:Carboncapture and storage,Carbondioxide removal,andCarbonsequestration
Most CO2 emissionshave beenabsorbedbycarbonsinks,includingplantgrowth,soiluptake,andocean
uptake (2020 Global CarbonBudget).
Natural carbon sinkscan be enhancedtosequestersignificantlylargeramountsof CO2beyondnaturally
occurringlevels.[254] Reforestationandtree plantingonnon-forestlandsare amongthe mostmature
sequestrationtechniques,althoughthe latterraisesfoodsecurityconcerns.[255] Soil carbon
sequestrationandcoastal carbonsequestrationare lessunderstoodoptions.[256] The feasibilityof land-
basednegative emissionsmethodsformitigationare uncertain;the IPCChasdescribedmitigation
strategiesbasedonthemasrisky.[257]
Where energyproductionorCO2-intensiveheavyindustriescontinue toproduce waste CO2,the gas can
be capturedand storedinsteadof releasedtothe atmosphere.Althoughitscurrentuse islimitedin
scale and expensive,[258] carboncapture andstorage (CCS) may be able to playa significantrole in
limitingCO2emissionsbymid-century.[259] Thistechnique,incombinationwithbio-energy(BECCS) can
resultinnetnegative emissions:CO2isdrawnfrom the atmosphere.[260] Itremainshighlyuncertain
whethercarbondioxide removal techniques,suchasBECCS, will be able toplaya large role inlimiting
warmingto 1.5 °C.Policydecisionsthatrelyoncarbondioxide removal increasethe riskof global
warmingrisingbeyondinternational goals.[261]

20. Adaptation
Main article:Climate change adaptation
Adaptationis"the processof adjustmenttocurrentor expectedchangesinclimate anditseffects".[262]
Withoutadditional mitigation,adaptationcannotavertthe riskof "severe,widespreadandirreversible"
impacts.[263] More severe climate change requiresmore transformativeadaptation,whichcanbe
prohibitivelyexpensive.[262] The capacityand potential forhumanstoadaptis unevenlydistributed
across differentregionsandpopulations,anddevelopingcountriesgenerallyhave less.[264] The first
twodecadesof the 21st centurysaw an increase inadaptive capacityinmostlow- andmiddle-income
countrieswithimprovedaccesstobasicsanitationandelectricity,butprogressisslow.Manycountries
have implementedadaptationpolicies.However,there isaconsiderablegapbetweennecessaryand
available finance.[265]
Adaptationtosealevel rise consistsof avoidingat-riskareas,learningtolive withincreasedfloodingand
protection.If thatfails,managedretreatmaybe needed.[266] There are economicbarriersfortackling
dangerousheatimpact.Avoidingstrenuousworkorhavingairconditioningisnotpossible for
everybody.[267] Inagriculture,adaptationoptionsinclude aswitchtomore sustainable diets,
diversification,erosioncontrol andgeneticimprovementsforincreasedtolerance toachanging
climate.[268] Insurance allowsforrisk-sharing,butisoftendifficulttogetforpeople onlower
incomes.[269] Education,migrationandearlywarningsystemscanreduce climate vulnerability.[270]
Ecosystemsadaptto climate change,aprocessthat can be supportedbyhumanintervention.By
increasingconnectivitybetweenecosystems,speciescanmigrate tomore favourable climateconditions.
Speciescanalsobe introducedtoareas acquiringa favorable climate.Protectionandrestorationof
natural and semi-natural areashelpsbuildresilience,makingiteasierforecosystemstoadapt.Many of
the actionsthat promote adaptationinecosystems,alsohelphumansadaptviaecosystem-based
adaptation.Forinstance,restorationof natural fire regimesmakescatastrophicfireslesslikely,and
reduceshumanexposure.Givingriversmore space allowsformore waterstorage inthe natural system,
reducingfloodrisk.Restoredforestactsas a carbon sink,butplantingtreesinunsuitable regionscan
exacerbate climate impacts.[271]
There are synergiesandtrade-offsbetweenadaptationandmitigation.Adaptationoftenoffershort-
termbenefits,whereasmitigationhaslonger-termbenefits.[272] Increaseduse of airconditioning
allowspeopletobettercope withheat,butincreasesenergydemand.Compacturbandevelopmentmay
leadto reducedemissionsfromtransportandconstruction. Atthe same time,itmayincrease the urban
heatislandeffect,leadingtohighertemperaturesandincreasedexposure.[273] Increasedfood
productivityhaslarge benefitsforbothadaptationandmitigation.[274]

21. Policiesandpolitics
Main article:Politicsof climate change
The Climate Change Performance Index rankscountriesbygreenhouse gasemissions(40% of score),
renewable energy(20%),energyuse (20%),andclimate policy(20%).
High
Medium
Low
VeryLow
Countriesthatare most vulnerabletoclimate change have typicallybeenresponsible forasmall share
of global emissions.Thisraisesquestionsaboutjustice andfairness.[275] Climate change isstrongly
linkedtosustainabledevelopment.Limitingglobal warmingmakesiteasiertoachieve sustainable
developmentgoals,suchaseradicatingpovertyandreducinginequalities.The connectionisrecognised
inSustainable DevelopmentGoal 13 whichisto "[t]ake urgentactionto combatclimate change and its
impacts".[276] The goalson food,clean waterand ecosystemprotectionhave synergieswithclimate
mitigation.[277]
The geopoliticsof climate change iscomplex.Ithasoftenbeenframedasa free-riderproblem, inwhich
all countriesbenefitfrommitigationdone byothercountries,butindividualcountrieswouldlosefrom
switchingtoa low-carboneconomythemselves.Thisframinghasbeenchallenged.Forinstance,the
benefitsof acoal phase-outtopublichealthandlocal environmentsexceedthe costsinalmostall
regions.[278] Furthermore, netimportersof fossilfuelswineconomicallyfromswitchingtoclean
energy,causingnetexporterstoface strandedassets:fossil fuelstheycannotsell.[279]
Policyoptions
A wide range of policies,regulations,andlawsare beingusedtoreduce emissions.Asof 2019, carbon
pricingcoversabout20% of global greenhouse gasemissions.[280] Carboncan be pricedwithcarbon
taxesandemissionstradingsystems.[281] Directglobal fossil fuel subsidiesreached$319 billionin2017,
and $5.2 trillionwhenindirectcostssuchas air pollutionare pricedin.[282] Endingthese cancause a
28% reductioninglobal carbonemissionsanda46% reductioninairpollutiondeaths.[283] Subsidies
couldbe usedto supportthe transitiontocleanenergyinstead.[284] More directmethodstoreduce
greenhouse gasesinclude vehicle efficiencystandards,renewablefuel standards,andairpollution
regulationsonheavyindustry.[285] Several countriesrequire utilitiestoincrease the share of
renewablesinpowerproduction.[286]

22. Policydesignedthroughthe lensof climate justice triestoaddresshumanrightsissuesandsocial
inequality.Forinstance,wealthynationsresponsibleforthe largestshare of emissionswouldhave to
pay poorercountriestoadapt.[287] Asthe use of fossil fuelsisreduced,jobsinthe sectorare beinglost.
To achieve ajust transition,thesepeople wouldneedtobe retrainedforotherjobs.Communitieswith
manyfossil fuel workerswouldneedadditional investments.[288]
International climateagreements
Furtherinformation:UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimate Change
Since 2000, risingCO2 emissionsinChinaandthe restof worldhave surpassedthe outputof the United
Statesand Europe.[289]
Perperson,the UnitedStatesgeneratesCO2at a far fasterrate thanotherprimaryregions.[289]
Nearlyall countriesinthe worldare partiestothe 1994 UnitedNationsFrameworkConventionon
Climate Change (UNFCCC).[290] The goal of the UNFCCCisto preventdangeroushumaninterference
withthe climate system.[291] Asstatedinthe convention,thisrequiresthatgreenhousegas
concentrationsare stabilisedinthe atmosphereata level whereecosystemscanadaptnaturallyto
climate change,foodproductionisnotthreatened,andeconomicdevelopmentcanbe sustained.[292]
The UNFCCC doesnotitself restrictemissionsbutratherprovidesaframeworkforprotocolsthatdo.
Global emissionshave risensince the UNFCCCwassigned.[293] Itsyearlyconferencesare the stage of
global negotiations.[294]
The 1997 KyotoProtocol extendedthe UNFCCCandincludedlegallybindingcommitmentsformost
developedcountriestolimittheiremissions.[295] Duringthe negotiations,the G77(representing
developingcountries) pushedforamandate requiringdevelopedcountriesto"[take] the lead"in
reducingtheiremissions,[296] since developedcountriescontributedmosttothe accumulationof
greenhouse gasesinthe atmosphere.Per-capitaemissionswere alsostillrelativelylow indeveloping
countriesanddeveloping countrieswouldneedtoemitmore tomeettheirdevelopmentneeds.[297]
The 2009 CopenhagenAccordhasbeenwidelyportrayedasdisappointingbecauseof itslow goals,and
was rejectedbypoorernationsincludingthe G77.[298] Associatedpartiesaimedto limitthe global
temperature rise tobelow2°C.[299] The Accordset the goal of sending$100 billionperyearto
developingcountriesformitigationandadaptationby2020, and proposedthe foundingof the Green
Climate Fund.[300] Asof 2020, the fundhas failedtoreachitsexpectedtarget,andrisksa shrinkage in
itsfunding.[301]

23. In 2015 all UN countriesnegotiatedthe ParisAgreement,whichaimstokeepglobal warmingwell below
2.0 °C and containsan aspirational goal of keepingwarmingunder1.5 °C.[302] The agreementreplaced
the KyotoProtocol.Unlike Kyoto,nobindingemissiontargetswere setinthe ParisAgreement.Instead,
a set of procedureswasmade binding.Countrieshave toregularlysetevermore ambitiousgoalsand
reevaluate thesegoalseveryfive years.[303] The ParisAgreementrestatedthatdevelopingcountries
mustbe financiallysupported.[304] Asof October2021, 194 statesandthe EuropeanUnionhave signed
the treatyand 191 statesand the EU have ratifiedoraccededtothe agreement.[305]
The 1987 Montreal Protocol,aninternational agreementtostopemittingozone-depletinggases,may
have beenmore effective atcurbinggreenhouse gasemissionsthanthe KyotoProtocol specifically
designedtodoso.[306] The 2016 Kigali Amendmenttothe Montreal Protocol aimstoreduce the
emissionsof hydrofluorocarbons,agroupof powerful greenhouse gaseswhichservedasareplacement
for bannedozone-depletinggases.Thismade the Montreal Protocol astrongeragreementagainst
climate change.[307]
National responses
In 2019, the UnitedKingdomparliamentbecame the firstnational governmenttodeclare aclimate
emergency.[308] Othercountriesandjurisdictionsfollowedsuit.[309] That same year,the European
Parliamentdeclareda"climate andenvironmental emergency".[310] The EuropeanCommission
presenteditsEuropeanGreenDeal withthe goal of makingthe EU carbon-neutral by2050.[311] Major
countriesinAsiahave made similarpledges:SouthKoreaandJapanhave committedtobecome carbon-
neutral by2050, and Chinaby2060.[312] In 2021, the EuropeanCommissionreleasedits“Fitfor55”
legislationpackage,whichcontainsguidelinesforthe car industry;all new carson the Europeanmarket
mustbe zero-emissionvehiclesfrom2035.[313] While Indiahasstrongincentivesforrenewables,italso
plansa significantexpansionof coal inthe country.[314]
As of 2021, basedoninformationfrom48 national climate plans,whichrepresent40% of the partiesto
the ParisAgreement,estimatedtotal greenhouse gasemissionswillbe 0.5% lowercomparedto2010
levels,below the 45%or 25% reductiongoalsto limitglobal warmingto1.5 °C or 2 °C,respectively.[315]
Scientificconsensusandsociety
Academicstudiesof scientificconsensus[316][317][318] reflectthatthe level of consensuscorrelates
withexpertiseinclimate science.[319]
Scientificconsensus
Main article:Scientificconsensusonclimate change

24. There isa near-complete scientificconsensusthatthe climate iswarmingandthatthisiscausedby
humanactivities.Asof 2019, agreementinrecentliterature reachedover99%.[320][317] No scientific
bodyof national orinternational standingdisagreeswiththisview.[321] Consensushasfurther
developedthatsome formof actionshouldbe taken to protectpeople againstthe impactsof climate
change.National science academieshave calledonworldleaderstocutglobal emissions.[322]
Scientificdiscussiontakesplace injournal articlesthatare peer-reviewed.Scientistsassesstheseevery
few yearsinthe Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change reports.[323] The 2021 IPCCAssessment
Reportstatedthat itis "unequivocal"thatclimate change iscausedbyhumans.[317]
Data has beencherrypickedfromshortperiodstofalselyassertthat global temperaturesare notrising.
Blue trendlinesshowshortperiodsthatmasklonger-termwarmingtrends(redtrendlines).Blue dots
showthe so-calledglobal warminghiatus.[324]
Denial andmisinformation
Furtherinformation:Global warmingcontroversy,Fossilfuelslobby,Climatechange denial,andGlobal
warmingconspiracytheory
Publicdebate aboutclimate change hasbeenstronglyaffectedbyclimate change denial and
misinformation,whichoriginatedinthe UnitedStatesandhassince spreadtoother countries,
particularlyCanadaandAustralia.The actors behindclimate change denial formawell-fundedand
relativelycoordinatedcoalitionof fossilfuelcompanies,industrygroups,conservative thinktanks,and
contrarianscientists.[325] Like the tobacco industry,the mainstrategyof these groupshasbeento
manufacture doubtaboutscientificdataandresults.[326] Many whodeny,dismiss,orhold
unwarranteddoubtaboutthe scientificconsensusonanthropogenicclimatechange are labelledas
"climate change skeptics",whichseveralscientistshave notedisamisnomer.[327]
There are differentvariantsof climate denial:some denythatwarmingtakesplace atall,some
acknowledge warmingbutattribute ittonatural influences,andsome minimisethe negative impactsof
climate change.[328] Manufacturinguncertaintyaboutthe science laterdevelopedintoamanufactured
controversy:creatingthe belief thatthere issignificantuncertaintyaboutclimate change withinthe
scientificcommunityinordertodelaypolicychanges.[329] Strategiestopromote these ideasinclude
criticismof scientificinstitutions,[330] andquestioningthe motivesof individualscientists.[328] Anecho
chamberof climate-denyingblogsandmediahasfurtherfomentedmisunderstandingof climate
change.[331]
Publicawarenessandopinion

25. Furtherinformation:Climate communication,Mediacoverage of climate change,andPublicopinionon
climate change
Climate change came to international publicattentioninthe late 1980s.[332] Due to mediacoverage in
the early1990s, people oftenconfusedclimate change withotherenvironmental issueslikeozone
depletion.[333] Inpopularculture,the climate fictionmovie The DayAfterTomorrow (2004) and the Al
Gore documentaryAnInconvenientTruth(2006) focusedonclimate change.[332]
Significantregional,gender,age andpolitical differencesexistinbothpublicconcernfor,and
understandingof,climatechange.More highlyeducatedpeople,andinsome countries,womenand
youngerpeople,were more likelytosee climate change asa seriousthreat.[334] Partisangapsalsoexist
inmany countries,[335] andcountrieswithhighCO2emissionstendtobe lessconcerned.[336] Views
on causesof climate change varywidelybetweencountries.[337] Concernhasincreasedovertime,[335]
to the pointwhere in2021 a majorityof citizensinmanycountriesexpressahighlevel of worryabout
climate change,orviewitas a global emergency.[338] Higherlevelsof worryare associatedwith
strongerpublicsupportforpoliciesthataddressclimate change.[339]
Protestsandlawsuits
Main articles:Climate movementandClimate change litigation
Canadianresidentsprotestingagainstglobal warming
Climate protestshave riseninpopularityinthe 2010s. These protestsdemandthatpolitical leaderstake
actionto preventclimate change.Theycantake the form of publicdemonstrations,fossil fuel
divestment,lawsuitsandotheractivities.[340] Prominentdemonstrationsinclude the School Strikefor
Climate.Inthisinitiative,youngpeople acrossthe globe have beenprotestingsince 2018 by skipping
school on Fridays,inspiredbySwedishteenagerGretaThunberg.[341] Masscivil disobedience actionsby
groupslike ExtinctionRebellionhave protestedbydisruptingroadsandpublictransport.[342] Litigation
isincreasinglyusedasatool to strengthenclimate actionfrompublicinstitutionsandcompanies.
Activistsalsoinitiatelawsuitswhichtargetgovernmentsanddemandthattheytake ambitiousactionor
enforce existinglawsonclimate change.[343] Lawsuitsagainstfossil-fuel companiesgenerallyseek
compensationforlossanddamage.[344]
Discovery
For broadercoverage of thistopic,see Historyof climate change science.
Tyndall'sratiospectrophotometer(drawingfrom1861) measuredhow muchinfraredradiationwas
absorbedandemittedbyvariousgasesfillingitscentral tube.

26. In the 1820s, JosephFourierproposedthe greenhouseeffecttoexplainwhyEarth'stemperature was
higherthanthe sun's energyalone couldexplain.Earth'satmosphere istransparenttosunlight,so
sunlightreachesthe surface where itisconvertedtoheat.However,the atmosphereisnottransparent
to heatradiatingfromthe surface,and capturessome of that heatwhichwarmsthe planet.[345] In
1856 Eunice NewtonFoote demonstratedthatthe warmingeffectof the sunisgreaterfor air with
watervapourthan for dry air,and the effectisevengreaterwithcarbondioxide.She concludedthat"An
atmosphere of thatgas wouldgive toour eartha hightemperature..."[346][347] Startingin1859,[348]
JohnTyndall establishedthatnitrogenandoxygen—togethertotalling99% of dry air—are transparent
to radiatedheat.However,watervapourandsome gases(inparticularmethane andcarbondioxide)
absorbradiatedheatand re-radiate thatheatwithinthe atmosphere.Tyndallproposedthatchangesin
the concentrationsof these gasesmayhave causedclimaticchangesinthe past,includingice ages.[349]
Svante Arrheniusnotedthatwatervapourinaircontinuouslyvaried,butthe CO2 concentrationinair
was influencedbylong-termgeological processes.Atthe endof anice age,warmingfromincreasedCO2
levelswouldincreasethe amountof watervapour,amplifyingwarminginafeedbackloop.In1896, he
publishedthe firstclimate modelof itskind,showingthathalvingof CO2levelscouldhave producedthe
drop intemperature initiatingthe ice age.Arrheniuscalculatedthe temperature increase expectedfrom
doublingCO2to be around5–6 °C.[350] Otherscientistswere initiallysceptical andbelievedthe
greenhouse effecttobe saturatedso that addingmore CO2 wouldmake nodifference.Theythought
climate wouldbe self-regulating.[351] From1938 onwardsGuyStewartCallendarpublishedevidence
that climate waswarmingandCO2 levelsrising,[352] buthiscalculationsmetthe same objections.[351]
In the 1950s, GilbertPlasscreateda detailedcomputermodel thatincludeddifferentatmosphericlayers
and the infraredspectrum.Thismodel predictedthatincreasingCO2levelswouldcause warming.
Aroundthe same time,HansSuessfoundevidencethatCO2 levelshadbeenrising,andRogerRevelle
showedthatthe oceanswouldnotabsorb the increase.The twoscientistssubsequentlyhelpedCharles
Keelingtobeginarecordof continuedincrease,whichhasbeentermedthe "KeelingCurve".[351]
Scientistsalertedthe public,[353] andthe dangerswere highlightedatJamesHansen's1988
Congressional testimony.[21] The Intergovernmental Panel onClimateChange,setupin 1988 to provide
formal advice tothe world'sgovernments,spurredinterdisciplinaryresearch.[354]
See also
icon Climate change portal
icon Environmentportal
icon Science portal
Worldportal
2020s inenvironmental history

27. Anthropocene –proposednew geological timeinterval inwhichhumansare havingsignificant
geological impact
Global cooling– minorityview heldbyscientistsinthe 1970s thatimminentcoolingof the Earthwould
take place
References
Explanatorynotes
This dependsonhowglobal temperature isdefined.There isasmall difference betweenairandsurface
temperatures.[132]
Notes
IPCC AR6 WG1 2021, SPM-7
IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, p. 54: These global-level ratesof human-drivenchange farexceedthe ratesof
change drivenbygeophysical or biosphere forcesthathave alteredthe EarthSystemtrajectoryinthe
past…
Our Worldin Data, 18 September2020
IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary2021, p. 59: The combinedeffectof all climate feedbackprocessesis
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IPCC SRCCL2019, p. 7: Since the pre-industrialperiod,the landsurface airtemperature hasrisennearly
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desertificationandlanddegradationinmanyregions(highconfidence).;IPCCSRCCL2019, p.45: Climate
change is playinganincreasingrole indeterminingwildfire regimesalongside humanactivity(medium
confidence),withfutureclimate variabilityexpectedtoenhance the riskandseverityof wildfiresin
manybiomessuchas tropical rainforests(highconfidence).
IPCC SROCC2019, p.16: Overthe lastdecades,global warminghasledtowidespreadshrinkingof the
cryosphere,withmasslossfromice sheetsandglaciers(veryhighconfidence),reductionsinsnowcover
(highconfidence) andArcticseaice extentandthickness(veryhighconfidence),andincreased
permafrosttemperature (veryhighconfidence).
USGCRP Chapter9 2017, p. 260.
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Cattaneoet al.2019; UN Environment,25October 2018.
IPCC AR5 SYR 2014, pp.13–16; WHO, Nov2015: "Climate change isthe greatestthreatto global health
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on the frontline inprotectingpeoplefromclimate impacts –frommore heat-wavesandotherextreme
weatherevents;fromoutbreaksof infectiousdiseasessuchasmalaria,dengue andcholera;fromthe

28. effectsof malnutrition;aswell astreatingpeoplethatare affectedbycancer,respiratory,cardiovascular
and othernon-communicable diseasescausedbyenvironmentalpollution."
IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, p. 64: Sustainednetzeroanthropogenicemissionsof CO2anddecliningnet
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IPCC SR15 Ch2 2018, pp. 95–96: In model pathwayswithnoorlimitedovershootof 1.5 °C, global net
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