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Climate Change In Pakistan

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Pakistan and Climate Changes
Pakistan and Climate Changes
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Climate Change In Pakistan

  3. 3. • Pakistan is situated in South East Asia. • The country is listed in the third world countries. Pakistan consists of four provinces namely Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa. • Pakistan got independence on August 14, 1947 from British. • Pakistan is bordered by India to the east, Afghanistan the west and Iran to the southwest while China borders the country in the northeast. • The geography of Pakistan is a profound blend of landscapes varying from plains to deserts, forests, hills and plateaus and ranging from coastal areas of the Arabian Sea in the south to the mountains of the Karakoram range in the north. • climate Pakistan lies in the subtropical arid zone and most of the country is subjected to a semi-arid climate. Based on physiographic factors and causes of diversity in climate, the country has been classified into four major climatic regions: AREA: 1,881,913 km2 (726,611 sq mi) Introduction
  4. 4. Climate Change Weather: Climate: Climate Change: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc. Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades. Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity.
  5. 5. Climate Change UNFCCC …..”a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable period of time”
  6. 6. CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution Melting of Glaciers & Snow Sea level Rise Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events IMPACTS Uncertainty in Water Availability Decrease in Crop Yields Newer perspective for sources of energy Loss of Biodiversity Increased Health Risks Natural Climate Variability Climate Change Natural + Anthropogenic Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution Spiraling Population High pace of Industrialization Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in Industry & Transport Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization
  7. 7. Climate Change/Global Warming Scientific Evidence According to the 3rd Assessment report of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001):  Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 0C during the 20th Century.  Future increases in global temperature are expected in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 0C by the end of this century.  In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise between 3.5 to 5.5 0C by 2100. Recent findings in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 0C are almost inevitable.
  8. 8. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CLIMATE OF PAKISTAN • Although Pakistan itself contributes very little to t he overall emissions of the Greenhouse Gases, yet it remains one of the most severely hit countries of the world by the process of Global warming.
  9. 9. RISING TEMPERATURES IN PAKISTAN As an ill effect of global warming, the annual mean surface tempera tures in Pakistan have been steadily increasing during the past deca d. A rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1°C in the coastal areas along with a 0.5 to 0.7% increase in solar radiation over southern half of c ountry has been observed. In central Pakistan, a 3-5% decrease in cl oud cover with increasing hours of sunshine have also been respons ible for increasing the temperatures.
  10. 10. RECENT CLIMATIC CATASTROPHES IN PAKISTAN Pakistan ranks 16th on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index(CC VI) by Maple Croft, jumping up 13 positions in one year. German watch places Pakistan as the “most affected” country for 2010 and in top 10 for 1990-2010 by climatic changes. Climate changes are costing the economy $14 billion a year, whic h is almost 5% of the GDP. According to the Asian Development B ank, more than 10 million people have been displaced in Pakistan over the last 2 years due to these climate related disasters.
  11. 11. Observed climate change in Pakistan • Change in temperature: 0.6-1.0 oC increase in mean tempe rature in coastal areas since early 1900s. • Change in precipitation: 10-15% decrease in coastal belt a nd hyper arid plains over the last 40 years in northern Pakistan. 18
  12. 12. Water Resources In Pakistan Pakistan is an agricultural country. Therefore water is an essential resource for sustained economic growth as well as human survival. Water, which is one of the most important national resource is increasingly becoming a scarce natural resource. Presently agriculture sector is using 93%, domestic sector 5% and industrial sector 2% of water resources. The domestic and industrial sector water uses are projected to increase to 15% by 2025. Agriculture sector is the major user of water, but its share is expected to decrease because of competing non- agricultural demands.
  13. 13. Our Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system. It comprised three large dams, 85 small dams, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals and 45 canal commands. This irrigation network is the biggest infrastructure asset of Pakistan worth approximately US$ 300 billion of investment. (source: Ministry of Water & Power).
  14. 14. CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON WATER Water resources are inextricably linked with climate; hence, the projected climate change has serious implications for Pakistan’s water resources. The freshwater resources in Pakistan are mainly based on snow and glacier melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to climate change. The average annual flow of IRS is around 142 million acre-feet of which 104 MAF is diverted to the canal network, while major portion of the remaining balance of around 35 MAF outflows to the sea.
  15. 15. Fortunately Pakistan has a large useable groundwater aquifer, God gifted natural reservoir, which is largely recharged from the surface flows and rains. This resource is being exploited heavily and particularly in some hyper-arid areas to the extent of criminality. Pakistan has moved from a water affluent country to water stressed country. In 1947, per capita water availability was 5000 cubic meter, which has currently decreased to around 1000 cubic meter, and projected to decrease to 800 cubic meter per capita by the year 2025.
  16. 16. Water sources • The five major (Jhelum, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, and Chenab) • The three minor rivers (Haro, Soan, and Siran), which make up the embryonic Indus river system, is the main source of surf ace water in Pakistan, along with the dams. • Major Dams are Tarbela and Mangla, with Bhasha under the way.
  17. 17. Mangla Dam
  18. 18. Glaciers and Pakistan  Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB).  Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.  International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.  Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.
  19. 19. Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (As reported in recent studies) World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years. IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.
  20. 20. How is Pakistan affected by climate change? • Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population.
  21. 21. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):  Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50% Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Discharge(Cumecs) Base Runoff CCS Runoff Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
  22. 22. Vulnerability of Water Resources  Increased variability of Monsoon  More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows  Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline  Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and water supply for industrial and domestic sectors.  Increased risks of floods and droughts
  23. 23. • Pakistan is at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the rivers and in some cases sea. • Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate chan ge is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production.
  24. 24. FLOOD • Melting of glaciers • Recurrent flooding's • Pakistan's economy has been crippled heavily by devastating and r epetitive floods during the last decade. In the past 10 years, Pakist an has been hit by floods almost every year. However, the floods o f 2010 and 2011 have emerged as the biggest catastrophes in the country's history.
  25. 25. Flood... • 2010 floods • The flood of 2010 remains as one of the biggest tragedies in the world's history, with 20 million p eople affected by it. The floods resulted in appro ximately 1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and destroyed more than 1.89 million homes. • 2011 floods • Although nowhere near the 2010 floods, the 201 1 floods also wrecked havoc , and affected 5.3 m illion people and 1.2 million homes in Sindh, as well as inundating 1.7 million acres of arable lan d.
  26. 26. Motivation. .. Can you Help us...
  27. 27. A distressed woman clutches her children as she wades through shoulder high water in the flood affected areas of Sind.
  28. 28. 2010 WHO Report... • Total 5.3 million consultations were reported in the country. • 708, 891 individuals (15% of the total population) w ere reported with acute diarrhoea.
  29. 29. DROUGHTS • A Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to the lack of rainfall. The chief characteristic of a drought is a decrease of water availability in a particular period and over a particular area.
  30. 30. Drought.... • Pakistan's economy has been pu nched heavily by the continuous spell of droughts for the last ma ny years, particularly in the provi nces of Baluchistan and Sind. • Drought in these areas has redu ced the river flows, resulting in drying up of the irrigation canal s, leading to a severe agricultura l deprivation. • The increased temperatures bec ause of the increased GHGs as well as a mismanagement of the water reservoirs need to be bla med for the condition
  32. 32. FOREST SECTORS IN PAKISTAN Pakistan is a country with one of the lowest forest cover in the world. which is mainly due to the arid and semi-arid climate in most parts of the country. forests in the country consisted of 4.2 million ha (4.8%), irrigated plantations occupied 103,000 ha (0.11%), while rangelands covered 28.50 million ha (32.40%) out of the total land area (87.98 million ha) of Pakistan.
  33. 33. the total area under forests in the country was 4.34 million ha (5%) out of which 3.44 million ha were state owned while the tree cover on farmlands and in private forests was 0.78 million ha (0.88%). (FAO,2007). Furthered by the increased rate of deforestation, the country’s forest cover is alarmingly on the verge of disappearance. average an area of 31,658 ha (-0.75%) of natural forests is cleared or deforested each year in Pakistan. The forests of Pakistan reflect great physiographic, climatic and edaphic contrasts in the country. (Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO)
  34. 34. Impacts on Forestry  Loss of Biodiversity  More frequent forest fires resulting in deforestation, soil erosion and landslides  Shifting of forest areas northwards (to cooler places)
  35. 35. Deforestation • Deforestation is the "perm anent removal of standing forests” • Deforestation include con version of forestland to fa rms or urban use
  36. 36. Deforestation • Forests currently cover only 2.5 per cent of Pakistani land area, the country has the highest annual deforestation rate in Asia, according to the latest findings of the World Wide Fund for Nature • 61,000 hectares (approx over 151,500 acres) of forest land have been converted to non-forest use in the country since its inception
  37. 37. Causes of deforestation in Pakistan Pakistan is one of those countr ies where rate of deforestation is extremely higher. The main cause of deforestatio n in Pakistan is the day-by-day increase in population which in creases requirement of the foo d and land for residential purp ose. In addition, the requireme nt for furniture, other househol d products and fuel is also incr easing 58
  38. 38. Causes of deforestation in Pakistan People are clearing forests to ma ke residential colonies, roads bet ween and within cities and for ag riculture usage. Wood, which is g ained by these forests and trees, is used to make building material s, furniture, paper products and i s used as firewood in most rural areas of the country 59
  39. 39. Impact of deforestation on climate and environm ent Deforestation not only affects the clim ate by increasing the atmospheric leve l of carbon dioxide but also affects the environment by inhibiting water recycli ng, triggering severe flooding, aquifer depletion, soil degradation and the ex tinction of plant and animal species 60
  40. 40. Impact of deforestation on climate and environment • Cutting down forests will cause a decline in photosynthetic activity which results in the atmosphere retaining higher levels of carbon dioxide. Forests also store an enormous amount of organic carbon which is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide when forests are cleared by burning. Clearly, deforestation contributes to global warming. This deforestation is a real harm for our ecosystem and environment. It is the main cause of global warming worldwide.
  41. 41. Impact of deforestation on climate and environm ent Water recycling is the movement of rain from the forest to land masses further inland. In a healthy forest about 3/4th of the intercepted water is returned to the atmosp here as moisture laden air masses which move inland, co ol and are converted to rain. Land cleared by deforestati on returns only about 1/4th of the rain water to the atm osphere. This air mass has less moisture and delivers less rain further inland. Deforestation inhibits water recycling and converts inland forest to dry land and potential was te land 62
  42. 42. Impact of deforestation on climate and environm ent Severe flooding is a result of defor estation because removal of the f orest leaves little vegetative cover to hold heavy rains. The inability o f land void of forest to hold heavy rain water will also trigger mudslid es. Severe flooding and mudslides are extremely costly because they devastate homes and communities 63
  43. 43. Impact of deforestation on climate and environment • The excess water from land cleared of forest becomes runoff water and enters the ocean instead of seeping downward into the soil to recharge aquifers. Aquifer depletion is already becoming a serious problem in certain areas of the planet and as the human population continues to grow so will the demand for fresh water
  44. 44. Impact of deforestation on climate and environment • Today deforestation, especially, in the tropics, decimates plant and animal life. Tropical rainforest contain about 7% of land surface but over half of the plant and animal species on the planet. If tropical rainforest deforestation continues at the current rate, it is estimated that by the first part of the 21st century about half of the remaining rainforest will be lost along with about 5 to 10% of all the species on the planet
  45. 45. Impact of deforestation on climate and environm ent Deforestation also results in soil degradatio n. Forests store nutrients that are required f or all plant life. In the tropics almost all nut rients are stored in the vegetation because tropical soil has little organic matter and al most no nutrient storage capacity. If tropica l forests are cleared for cropland, the land will yield crops for only a few years and wh en the nutrients are depleted they become wasteland 66
  46. 46. Deforestation increase flooding in Pakistan Deforestation in Pakistan directly contributed to the severity of flo oding seen there in 2010, 11, 12 and 13. With the hills and moun tains due to lack of tree cover a nd erosion increased, in places dragging remaining tree cover d own causing blockages, damagi ng dams and increasing floodin g 67
  47. 47. PAKITAN IN LEADING TOWARDS…….. The rate of deforestation in Pakistan has been accelerated harshly and The World Wide Fund Report warns that i f the current deforestation trend of la nd conversion from forest to other us es is not checked, the country will no t be able to meet its international co mmitments under the MDGs to incre ase its forest cover from 2.5 % to 6 % by 2015 68
  48. 48. Impact of Climate Extreme Events  Climate Extreme Events Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat waves  Cause damage to life and property  Destroy standing crops  Destroy stored food grain  Spoil quality of food grains
  49. 49. HOW CAN WE STOP DEFORESTATION ? • Governments have to make citizens aware of the issue including chil dren • Reduce wasteful land u se practices • Improve already devel oped lands 70
  50. 50. HOW CAN WE STOP DEFORESTA TION ? • Each person can plant trees once in a while t o maintain the ecosyst em • Groups can be formed to decrease deforestat ion • Plantation weeks in Pa kistan 71
  52. 52. Impacts on Energy  Greater demand of energy  Reduced hydropower generation because of low water supply  Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to cyclonic activity  Reduced utilization of solar energy – due to increased cloudiness as a result of high evapotranspiration
  53. 53. Sector wise Energy Consumption of Pakistan Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008
  54. 54. Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use • The energy sector is vulnerable to the effects of climate change in several ways, as many different aspects of the energy industry are directly affected by environmental and climatic conditions. • The effects include; • Seasonal and daily temperatures and precipitation changes affect the timing of peak electricity demands and the size of these peaks; • Extended periods of drought lead to reduced water availability for hydropower generation;
  55. 55. Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use • Changes in temperature and precipitation affect water availability for cooling power generators; • Changes in cloud cover, temperature and pressure patterns directly affect wind and solar resources (affecting resource availability or productivity); • Increased intensity and frequency of severe weather events impact design and safety requirements of future energy infrastructure and other capital investments; • Increased occurrence of blackouts may be observed as a result of higher electricity demand for cooling and refrigeration caused by higher temperatures.
  56. 56. Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use • Changes in precipitation cycles due to climate change can alter river flow patterns, resulting in longer periods of drought, thus causing water levels to decrease and affecting hydroelectric generation capacity. • Another potential consequence of altered river flow patterns is the increased incidence of elevated flow rates and flooding that exceed the safety margins of existing hydro plants. • On the other hand, increased flow rates, if timed and managed correctly, may result in increased hydropower generation.
  57. 57. Climate change impacts on biofuels production systems • Biofuels are among the most promising types of biomass energy systems in place • For example, temperatures are linked with the real evapo-transpiration of sugarcane plants in semi-arid conditions (Fonseca, J. 1984), (Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995), therefore, an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall will cause increased evapo-traspiration, resulting in lower production of sugarcane and thus lower bio-fuel production.
  58. 58. Climate change impacts on wind energy generation systems • Wind energy is not affected by shifting water supplies as opposed to fossil-fuel based power systems or other alternative energy systems. • Nevertheless projected climate change impacts are likely to have significant positive or negative impacts on wind energy generation given that it depends strongly on climatic and environmental conditions at a particular site. • Wind is caused by the uneven heating of the earth’s surface by the sun.
  59. 59. Climate change impacts on wind energy generation systems • In order to ensure the sustainability of future wind energy projects, the identification of locations where deep changes in global atmospheric circulation are expected is critical.
  60. 60. Actions on climate change Mitigation:  Promoting low-carbon energy sources and technologies  Promoting energy conservation and efficiency  Reducing emissions from deforestation Adaptation:  Integrating climate risks into policies and planning at different levels  Addressing climate impacts in various sectors  Building the capacity of communities to cope with climate change related problems References
  61. 61. CONCLUSION • Pakistan, which is an already resource stressed country, h as been crippled by the process of global warming. • More than 10 million people have been displaced over t he last two years, the agricultural land lies barren and fin ancial losses have been estimated at $2 billion. • These climatic catastrophes will not die down. Research st udies have concluded that changing weather patterns will be the foundation for more intense and prolonged droug hts and heat waves. • Meanwhile, tremendous precipitation events will become more frequent and future tropical cyclones will become m ore strong.
  62. 62. CONCLUSION • So it is the time for policy makers to sit and think seriously about this issue. New plans and strategies have to be made to overcome the problem • Rules and regulations regarding cutting of trees must be followed • Government and society including us (the future disaster managers) have to feel their responsibilities and individuals have to play their role to reduce the rate of deforestation
  63. 63. References • Dr. Qazi, et,al; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS IN PAKISTAN, FINAL REPORT OF THE SECTORAL STUDY ON AGRICULTURE, SEPTEMBER, 1997. • Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2007 • Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP-1992), • Framework for Implementation of Climate change policy, Government of Pakistan Climate change Division Islamabad, November 2013. • Ministry of Climate change Government of Pakistan, National climate change policy September 2012. • Dr. Rasul, et, al.;Pakistan Metrological Department, climate change in Pakistan, focused on Sindh Province, Technical Report No. PMD-25/2012.
  64. 64. References • • • • change-disasters-in-Pakistan-and-its-consequences • • • Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO, 2007.

Editor's Notes

  • The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global averaged surface temperature on Earth will increase by 1 to 3.5°C (about 2 to 6°F) by the year 2100, with an associated rise in sea level of 15 to 95 cm (about 6 to 37 inches).
  • it is important to note that some levels of GHGs are necessary to maintain temperatures needed to sustain human and animal life. The average mean temperature of the earth is 15°C, without greenhouse gases it would sit at -18 º C,
  • Climate change is also likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health. The projected increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves is expected to increase mortality rates as a result of heat stress, especially in areas where people are not equipped to deal with warmer temperatures. To a lesser extent, increases in winter temperatures in high latitudes could lead to decreases in mortality rates. Climate change is also expected to lead to increases in the potential transmission of vector borne diseases, including malaria, dengue, and yellow fever, extending the range of organisms such as insects that carry these diseases into the temperate zone, including parts of the United States, Europe, and Asia.