Climate change is occurring now and having significant impacts. Unusual weather patterns are being experienced worldwide. July 2017 was the warmest July on record, and drought recoveries are taking longer. In the Philippines, recent typhoons have been unusually heavy and destructive. Climate change reduces agricultural productivity and economic growth in the Philippines by an estimated PHP 145 billion per year through increased food prices, losses to industry and services, and reduced consumer welfare. Investments in climate-smart agriculture including irrigation, research, and early warning systems can help address these impacts and promote long-term food security and economic growth.

1. Jacqueline P. Castillo, MBA, PhD
Resource Person
ICS FOR ORGANIC FARMING TRAINING
SRD TRAINING CENTER
SEPTEMBER 11, 2017
Climate Change
and
Agriculture

2. 1. What is Happening? ---
Understanding MORE about
Climate Change and Global
Warming.
OUTLINE
2. Its impact to Agriculture and the
economy as well as to our future
resources
3.What should we do?

3. “EARTH IS AT THE
TIPPING POINT”
Headlines around the world
indicate a “sick” earth. Unusual
weather patterns are being
experienced and wreaking havoc in
all corners of the world. “Things
that normally happen in geologic
time are happening during the span
of a human lifetime (National
Geographic, September 2004).”

4. August 15, 2017
July 2017 equaled record July 2016
July 2017 was statistically tied with July 2016
as the warmest July in the LAST 137 years of
modern record-keeping, according to a
monthly analysis of global temperature by
NASA scientists.
August 14, 2017
Study finds drought recoveries
taking longer
Land ecosystems are taking longer
to recover from droughts, and
incomplete recovery may become
the norm in places, with tree
deaths and increased greenhouse
gas emissions.July 12, 2017
Massive iceberg breaks off from Antarctica
An iceberg about the size of the state of Delaware split off from Antarctica’s Larsen
C ice shelf sometime between July 10 and July 12. How will the remaining ice shelf
respond?

5. The Philippines has
not been spared of the
weather-related
disturbances and
disasters. The past
typhoons have been
unusually heavy and
have brought
devastation to our
country and our people.

6. PHILIPPINES
FLOODED STREETS APPROACHING A BRIDGE
TOWARDS CALASIAO, PANGASINAN

7.  In 2004, the death toll stood at 412, with
177 people missing, after typhoon Winnie
triggered landslides and flash floods.
 In Quezon alone, 114 died in Real, 100 in
Infanta, and 92 in General Nakar.

8. February of 2006, an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 people died
after a school crashed due to heavy rainfall and an estimated
500 houses in the village of Guinsaugon, St. Bernard, Leyte
was buried by mudflow.
This mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped
459..2 milimeters of rain on the area in the space of
3 days

9. Sea Level Rise in the
Philippines Perez et al. 1999
Manila Bay (Blue)
Legaspi (Red)
Yanagi and Akaki 1994
Hulme and
Sheard 1999

10. Global Warming - Short Documentary(Educational) Understanding Global Warming.mp4

11. Short activity
1. Form yourself into 3 groups
2. Write in a piece of paper provided --what do you
think is the effect of Climate Change in your
a. crops and animals
c. yourself and your family
d. soil and water
right now?
3.Choose someone in the group to
explain your answers

12. Typology of the Mindanao Agricultural Research General trend for
the next twenty years
Research Trend For The Next
20 Years:
A multi-perspective analysis
(A dissertation presented in the 3rd International Conference on
Agriculture and Forestry,2016, Sofitel Manila Hotel)
Climate Change
direct effect to
Agriculture
Food
Insecurit
y and
Food
shortage
Water Scarcity and/ or
Flooding
Soil Desertifictaion/ Soil
degradation
Increased in Pest and
Diseases occurances

13. Agriculture
productivity is
dependent on
climate and its
variability
HIGHLY

15. Increases in temperature
Increases in moisture Increases in
CO2 levels
Each can impact all three legs of the
plant disease triangle
(Coakley et al, 1999)
Coakley,S.M., H. Scherm, S. Chakraborty. 1999. Climate Change and Disease
Management. Ann. Rev. Phyto. 37:399-426
PREDICTED DIRECT RESULT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE

16. PLANT DISEASE TRIANGLE
PATHOGEN DISEASE
CROP
1. Amount of inoculum
2. Virulence
1. Susceptibility
2. Health
1. Leaf wetness
2.Temperature
Amount
of
Disease

17. Potential Effect of
RisingTemperature in plants
Wheat and oats have
been found to be
more susceptible to
rusts at higher
temperatures

18. Potential Effect of changes in moisture
in plants
Higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations favor
fungal spore production, accelerating epidemic
development

19. 2015 Global Landscapes Forum
Up and Down the Geographical and Temporal Scales:
Integrating Global Trends and Local Decisions to Make the
World More Food-Secure in 2050
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the
Philippine Agriculture Sector:
Scenarios, Policies and Investments
Mark W. Rosegrant, Nicostrato Perez, Angga Pradesha,
Timothy S. Thomas and Mercedita A. Sombilla

20.  Commodity Production and Prices
 Food Security – Childhood
Malnutrition and Hunger
 Economic Welfare in Agriculture
 Economy-wide Impact of Climate
Change
Impact of Climate Change to
Agricultural Economy

21. Climate change impact on growth in GDP by
sector
 Climate change - reduces
long-term economic
growth, costing Php 145
billion/year
 Higher commodity price
gives producers better
incentive to grow more
crops, especially export
crops; leads to higher
agricultural sector growth
 Downside – Constraining
structural transformation
process, given that more
labor stay or move in back
to agriculture sector.
Keeping labor to work in
low productivity sector
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
Total gross domestic
product
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Yearly change (%)
Productivity
effect
Global trade
effect

22. Economy-wide impacts of climate change in the
Philippines
Variable
Climate shock (Php billion)
Productivity
Effect
Global Trade
Effect
Total
Effect
Annual Cost to
Economy -53.3 -91.6 -145.1
Private Consumption -42.5 -77.3 -119.5
Investment -10.1 -198.8 -29.8
Government
Consumption 0.6 5.5 4.2
Source: Authors’ calculation from Phil-DCGE simulations results
• Climate change – projected to cost the economy Php 145 billion per year
• Welfare loss - reduction of private consumption and total investment - mainly
influenced by increase of commodity prices, loss in real exchange rate and lower
household income level

23. KEY MESSAGES
CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL
WARMING IS REAL AND ITS
HAPPENING NOW!!!

25. Key Messages
 PhP 186 billion per year cost of climate change:
• Php 41 billion from increased malnutrition
• Php 145 billion in economy wide losses
 Climate change reduces crop productivity growth,
increases food prices, and reduces food security
 Large negative effects on the rest of the economy:
• increased international commodity prices cause terms of
trade and real exchange rate losses
• reducing growth in industrial and service sectors and
consumer welfare

26. Key Messages
 Investment in increasing rice and other crop productivity growth such as
irrigation investment and agricultural tariff reduction shows significant
impact in reducing the negative climate effects
 Reduction of expenditures on rice market interventions and transfer of
savings to investment in agricultural research and development and rural
infrastructure - promoting technological change in agriculture could
generate large economic benefits for the Philippines
 Supporting climate change adaptation policies
• Development of real-time weather information systems to support
farmers decision making
• Improved agricultural extension employing innovative methods such as
information and communication technologies
• Stronger seed industry to facilitate the adoption of new varieties

27. Key Messages
 Way forward to achieve food security under climate
change - shift the focus of policy to productivity and
efficiency-enhancing measures
• R&D to develop technologies appropriate for local
conditions
• Irrigation and flood control development
 Requires reorienting food security policy toward
facilitating rather than inhibiting trade, competition,
and crop diversification to achieve inclusive access
to food while generating long-term productivity and
income growth

28. 1. What is Happening? ---
Understanding MORE about
Climate Change and Global
Warming.
OUTLINE
2. Its impact to Agriculture and the
economy as well as to our future
resources
3.What should or can we do NOW?

29. WE ONLY HAVE ONE
PLANET...
Jacqueline P. Castillo, MBA, PhD
Resource Person
ICS FOR ORGANIC FARMING TRAINING
SRD TRAINING CENTER
SEPTEMBER 11, 2017