This set of slides is from the Active Cities Summit, organised by Sustrans and Nike, and was delivered by Claire Craig. Claire Craig is the Director for the Government Office for Science. This presentation explores the Foresight Future of Cities study and active living in cities for economic success.

1. Future of Cities:
Evidence for Active Cities

2. 2 Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking about the future has a long history
– some things come to pass…
Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
Letchworth Garden City, 2013
Uxcester Garden City, 2015

3. 3 Foresight Future of Cities
… others ideas to varying degrees
1979
Motopia, 1963
Post-disaster housing, 2009

4. Future cities are Active Cities
4 Foresight Future of Cities

5. 5 Foresight Future of Cities
In conversation with
Whitehall departments:
DfT: Future Transport Policy
DH: GBP 17 billion savings
In conversation with over 20
local authorities, specifically
highlighted in relation to:
Social inequality
Attractiveness
Low carbon
Interest is widespread

6. 6
Enhancing potential evidence-based
support for long-term decision-making
Foresight Future of Cities
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
Active Cities development

7. 7 Foresight Future of Cities
Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction
& retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
Employment
Well-being
Minimising isolation
& loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events
& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic
productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration
opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenges for evidence:
1. Interdependent nature of cities
ICT infrastructure

8. 8 Foresight Future of Cities
Challenges for evidence:
2. Long time horizons of influence
New towns
Green belts
City deals
GLA
Service economy
Railway
investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented
development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfield
development
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Importanceofcitiesasautonomousunits
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing
obesity levels
City networks

9. 9
Evidence can impact
on long-term and cross-sectoral
Foresight Future of Cities
£3,200 of lifetime benefits for every £1 invested in use
of broader evidence and new analytics
Medway project successfully supported young people
into education and employment, through drawing on
wider range of evidence
Wide and long term impacts on individuals and society

10. 10
Foresight response 1:
Diverse evidence & methods
Foresight Future of Cities
Major city
empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline
2037
“What-if” scenarios
Speculative design
Review of evidence Future projections
Data analytics and modelling

11. 11
Foresight response 2:
Co-creation in local realities
Foresight Future of Cities
For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact, essential to
have co-creation approaches to development of scientific evidence base

12. 12
Bristol Foresight project
Foresight Future of Cities
Working with Bristol City Council on a 50 year
‘living vision’ and agreed goals for a liveable city

13. 13 Foresight: Future of Cities
To develop an evidence base to inform action for the wicked,
complex issues affecting the future of our cities, we need to include
diverse range of sources using potentially unfamiliar methods.
For evidence to create buy-in and effect long-term impact,
collaborative, co-creation approaches to development of a
scientific evidence base are essential.
Scientific evidence and rigorous science have broad reach.
Conclusions

14. Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We
apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that
should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk .
@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science