Opening Day at #CK2017 | Ani Dasgupta, WRI

1. Towards a More Equal City:
Mobilizing for Post-Quito Implementation
ANI DASGUPTA

2. Photo: Flickr/ Agencia de Noticias ANDES
On October 20, 2016, leaders
from 167 countries adopted the
New Urban Agenda
THE WORLD CAME TOGETHER AT HABITAT III

5. HOW DO WE BUILD CITIES FOR ALL?

7. THE NEXT GENERATION OF
URBANIZATION WILL BE DIFFERENT

8. RAPID GROWTH IN AFRICA AND SOUTH ASIA

9. MEDIUM-SIZED CITIES WILL GROW THE MOST
Note: N = 1,692 urban agglomerations (populations ≥ 300,000 inhabitants).
Sources: United Nations (2014); World Bank country classification.

10. MORE OF THE POOR WILL LIVE IN CITIES
Source: Ravallion et al., 2007c: 8. Note: Example trend based on data from India.

11. URBANIZATION WILL NOT BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ECONOMIC
GROWTH EVERYWHERE

12. THRIVING
STABILIZING
EMERGING
STRUGGLING

13. STRUGGLING AND EMERGING CITIES WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN TWO REGIONS
Source: Oxford Economics (2014). Note: (N=769 cities).

14. THE FASTEST-GROWING CITIES WILL HAVE THE LEAST PUBLIC
RESOURCES
Source: Authors’ compilation from various sources. Note: Budget data represent years 2010 to 2016.

15. CITIES MUST STRETCH
THEIR LIMITED RESOURCES

16. THREE TRANSFORMATIONS ARE NEEDED
SUSTAINABLE

17. 17
Rapid growth & urban transformation
But recent research has shown that official figures underestimate India’s “hidden
and messy” urbanization
India’s population split – 1980, 2015, 2050
Percentage
of population
urbanized
23% 33% 50%
SOURCE: World Urbanization Prospects, 2014
India’s urban population has increased by > 2.5 times since
1980; projected to double again by 2050.
Millions
538
862 806
161
420
814
1980 2015 2050
urban
rural
Urban population expected to almost double from 420 million in 2015 to over
800 million by 2050;

18. 1818
Urbanization will be critical to India’s economic transformation
Source: WDI data

19. Photo: World Resources Institute
ASPIRATIONS FOR 1 MILLION JOBS PER MONTH…
• Where do those jobs come from?

20. A PRODUCTIVE CITY AND THE INFORMAL ECONOMY
• Informal economies in areas of sub-
Saharan Africa, Central Asia and
Latin America often comprise 50%
of GDP
• India’s Manufacturing: ~81% of
employment is in the unorganized
sector
• India’s Services: 74–90 % of
employment is in the unorganized
sector
Photo: Robert McCabe/Flickr Data Source: Worldwatch Institute; Ghani and Kanbur,
World Bank

21. 2121
Significant variation in economic performance across
Indian districts and cities

22. 2222
Connected urban growth critical for economic
performance
Source: Alder et al. 2016
Digitised Road Networks in India
1996
2011
Source: Tewari et al. 2016
1% increase in market access
associated with 0.5% increase in
income
Economic growth at sub-district level (n=5900) depends significantly on
area’s connectivity & market access

23. 2323
Appropriately compact, connected, & coordinated cities
can be more productive, socially inclusive, resilient,
cleaner, & safer: Driving low carbon urban development is a $17 trillion
global economic opportunity to 2050 based on energy savings alone
Source: Leeds University for New Climate Economy

24. QUALITY OF LIFE: AIR QUALITY
• Delhi has the worst air quality of
any major city in the world
according to the WHO1
• 13 of the 25 cities worldwide with
the highest levels of PM are in
India2
• Average PM2.5 levels in 2015 in
Delhi was over 200 μg/m33
• Safe levels for PM according to
the WHO's air quality guidelines
are 10 μg/m3 (annual mean) for
PM2.5
• Need for more open data on air
pollution levels
• Air pollution has solutions, but
leadership is needed
1 http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2016/air-pollution-estimates/en/
2 Walker, Alissa (29 May 2015). "India's Air Pollution Is So Bad It's Causing Lung Damage in Kids"
3 http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/cities/en/

25. URBAN INDIA'S FUTURE
620,000 premature deaths p.a. due to poor air quality
India’s GHG emissions: about ½ originate in urban areas
Environmental degradation cuts India’s GDP by $80 billion
Presenting India’s renewed urban focus
Smart Cities Mission | Swacch Bharat Mission | AMRUT Cities |
Housing for All | HRIDAY Cities | Metro Rail Projects

27. Municipal Boundary
Urban Area (2005-06)
Urban Area (2011-12)
Delhi NCR Mumbai Pune
54 sqkm/ year 5 sqkm/ year 42 sqkm/year
Inevitable Urban Expansion in Indian Cities…
• Rapid growth in satellite towns of Delhi (Gurgaon, Noida, Grt Noida, Faridabad etc)
• Mumbai, little movement in peripheries, but witnessing inner city redevelopment
• Pune capitalising on Mumbai’s slow down, attracting new economies like IT/ ITES
Source: Generated by WRI India using data from Bhuvan NRSC

28. STRATEGIES TO AVOID LOCK-IN
Source: World Bank
Short-Term Capital Stock
Long-Term Capital Stock
Infrastructure
Land Use and Urban Form
10-15 years
15-40 years
30-75+ years
100+
years

29. THREE INTERCONNECTED OUTCOMES

30. CITIES NEED TO PRIORITIZE ACTION

31. WHAT IS THE BACKBONE OF A CITY?

32. FINDING INNOVATIVE WAYS TO PROVIDE CORE
SERVICES FOR ALL
Water
Transportation Energy
Housing &
Land Use

33. SECTORAL SOLUTIONS ARE A
START, BUT CITIES NEED
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE

34. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM CITIES THAT HAVE TRANSFORMED?
Photo Credits: Deutsche Welle/Patrick Benning/Flickr; GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

35. EQUAL
ACESSS
CORE SERVICES
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
CITIES DESIGNED FOR ALL CITIZENS SUCCEED

36. EQUAL
ACESSS
CORE SERVICES
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
CITIES DESIGNED FOR ALL CITIZENS SUCCEED

37. EQUAL
ACESSS
CORE SERVICES
TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE
CITIES DESIGNED FOR ALL CITIZENS SUCCEED