This document summarizes a presentation on understanding the impacts of drought restrictions. It discusses the 2012 drought in the UK, aims to study the impacts of temporary use bans (TUBs) on water consumption, and methods used including top-down analysis of water company data and bottom-up analysis of property-level metering and surveys. The presentation notes that TUBs reduced consumption by 1-10% and discusses recommendations for managing future droughts, including clear communication and considering long-term water efficiency measures.

1. Ricardo-AEA
© Ricardo-AEA Ltd
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Aaron Burton
CIWEM Annual Conference April 2014
Understanding the impacts of drought restrictions

2. © Ricardo-AEA LtdRicardo-AEA in Confidence2
Background to 2012 Drought

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A weird drought?
Terry Marsh and Simon Parry, “An Overview of the 2010-12 Drought and Its Dramatic Termination” (2012), http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/20083/.

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Aims
• Obtain a clear picture of the impact of TUBs on various customer
groups
• Help fill the knowledge gap on impacts of TUBs and link to wider
EA / Defra work
Objectives
• Impacts of restrictions
• Recommendations on collecting and sharing data in the future
and reducing conflict with customers
• Assessing bounce back
Published UKWIR WR01A
Aims & objectives of UKWIR research

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Top down approach
• Water into supply –
leakage & statistical
modelling to determine
impacts of restrictions
Bottom-up
approach
• Quantification of survey
responses for volumes
• Property level metering
Comparison of approaches to assess
restrictions

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Communications

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Stakeholder survey

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Messaging
(domestic shown in graph)Messaging and information sources
38
21
19
19
18
14
13
11
8
5
5
2
2
2
1
1
*
20
17
TV
Word of mouth (e.g. neighbours, family, friends)
Local newspaper
Information sent directly to you by your water company
National newspaper
Local radio station
National radio station
Internet
Posters in local area or on transport
Letter sent directly to you by your local council
The website of your water company
Through politicians
Through environmental / wildlife charities
Facebook
Posters at work
Other
Twitter
Can't remember
None of these
% who heard from this
source
Any source: 63%
Q17: In which, if any, of the following ways did you see or hear information
about the 2012 drought or the hosepipe ban?
Base: All respondents (1003)
Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013

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Understanding of TUB restrictions
(non domestic shown below)

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Behavioural impacts of TUBs on consumption
4
2
72
68
15
11
4
5
6
14
Gardener (54)
Window cleaner (288)
% Increased a lot % Increased a little
% Stayed about the same % Decreased a little
% Decreased a lot % Don’t know
Q15: To what extent, if at all, did the frequency with which you use a mobile
car valeter/ window cleaner/ gardener change during when the hosepipe ban
was in place in 2012?

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Public attitude to future use of restrictions
35
7
4
5
8
6
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
29
23
19
18
15
15
11
11
7
5
5
4
4
9
27
32
23
23
21
36
28
19
15
15
20
18
20
36
39
41
43
53
42
49
63
68
64
65
65
7
7
6
13
12
6
6
9
8
9
13
8
10
Fill or maintain a pond which contained fish (72)
Water new outdoor plants (805)
Water established outdoor plants (805)
Water new lawns or grassed areas (756)
Clean a dog or other domestic animals (205)
Fill or maintain a paddling pool (156)
Fill or maintain a pond which did not contain fish (63)
Water established lawns or grassed areas (756)
Fill or maintain a water feature/ ornamental fountain (98)
Clean paths or patios (810)
Clean other outdoor surfaces e.g. decking or roofs (1003)
Clean a motor-vehicle(s) which was for private use (774)
Clean outside walls or windows (1003)
Very serious (%) Fairly serious (%) Not very serious (%) Not at all serious (%) Don't know (%)
Q12a: How serious, if at all, would a ban on using a hosepipe for the following
activities be for you and your household?
Base: All respondents who have this feature in their property – bases shown in brackets
Interviewed online from 26 July 2013 to 7 August 2013

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Data analysis

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Example for London Water Resources Zone

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Comparison of percentage of properties exhibiting
high flow events (Thames Water)
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
London 3am to
4 am
Thames Valley
3 am to 4 am
London 6 pm to
11 pm
Thames Valley
6 pm to 11 pm
Percentageofpropertiesexhbiitinghigh
flowevents
Apr-June 2011
Apr-June 2012
Apr-June 2013

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• Demand 1-2% lower than forecast in lead up to TUB
implementation – not statistically significant
• In the run-up to TUB implementation maximum decrease was
6.5% of forecast
• Maximum decrease was 10% during TUB implementation
Comparison with top down analysis
Angela Wallis, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris

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Australian comparison and considering bounce -
back
922
801
742
667 666
549 536 554 551
697
762
400
600
800
Norestrictions
Level1
Level2
Level3
Level4
Level5
Level6
HighLevel
MediumLevel
PWCM
Norestrictions
Meanobserveddailytotalwater
production(ML/d) “Target 140” TV
campaign launched,
shower timers
distributed, high water
users letters
distributed
CA Beal, A Makki, and RA Stewart, IWA Efficient 2013 Conference, Paris

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Water Sensitive Communities
CIRIA WSUD Scoping Study http://www.ciria.org/Resources/Free_publications/Water_Sensitive_Urban_Design.aspx

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• Principle 1: Ensure a consistent and transparent approach
• Principle 2: Ensure that water use restrictions are proportionate
• Principle 3: Communicate clearly with customers and the wider public/users
• Principle 4: Consider representations in a fair way
Selected Recommendations

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• TUBs appear to have reduced consumption
• Bottom-up analysis provides further detail on individual measures, how these
were understood, and potential impacts on business
• A range of recommendation to inform drought and water resources planning
• Further research
– Longer running end use analysis to observe changes in wider water use
during TUB periods and linked to communication/ behaviour change
programmes
– Apply statistical approaches to account for rainfall to bottom-up meter data
– Permanent water efficiency measures – preference for longer term lower
impact TUBs observed in Australia
– Water sensitive cities approaches – how can we address flood risk and
drought over the long term?
Conclusions and further research

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Aaron Burton
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aaron.burton@ricardo-aea.com
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Thank You